Monday, February 25, 2013

Iranian Diplomat Has Applied For Asylum in Norway!!!

Another Iranian diplomat in Oslo has defected and applied for asylum in Norway. Although, Mohammad Reza Heidari a former Iranian diplomat, who has refugee status in Norway, through a short article published in some of the persian websites released his name, the current defected diplomat would like to remain anonymous OUT OF CONSIDERATION TO HIMSLEF AND HIS FAMILY!!!!!
Although, i do not have time to spend on this issue, but some false arguments releasde by this guy and other defected Iranian diplomats force me to write a brief comment about this type of Iranian diplomat defection. This brief comment would also be beneficial for the Norwegian Authority as well as those kind readers, who visit my weblog daily.
The defection of this diplomat (M.Z) and those guys like him, raise some serious questions including:
1- The current diplomat would like to remain anonymous out of consideration to himself and his family!!!
Which type of consideration? Security? by whom?  What does this phrase mean? Does it mean that the Iranian Regime does not have any clue that one of its diplomat has applied for asylum in Norway; therefore he would like to remain anonymous? Is this a joke or what?
2- The second question is why and based on which reason is this guy applying for asylum in Norway? As i heard, the diplomatic mission of this guy was going to end after almost one and half month ( from this date) and he should return back to Iran. Why has he applied for asylum like a last minute flight passanger? The other defected diplomat i.e. Mohammad Reza Heidari also had the similar issue. He applied for asylum in Norway almost between two to four months before he supposed to return back to Iran.
3- I am wondering, what does this guy want to say to the UDI in Norway. Does he want to say that he is againts the turure, execution and undemocratic institutions within the Islamic Regime? In this case, the UDI employee has to ask him: where have you been in the last 34 years? Did n`t you notice these issues in the past 34 years?

Some Recommendations for the Norwegian Authority:
1- The Iranian Regime is the master of fabricating artificial opposition and double agent.

2- The next presidential election in Iran will take place on June 14, 2013. According to the constitution, Ahmadinejad cannot participate in this election. It means that some other person will become the next president and consequently, the new president will replace and change most of the diplomats. (This guy knows about this issue very well too).

3- This guy has enormous amount of information about Iranian secret agents and activities in Norway and possibly other countries in the EU. If he denies this issue, he is lying. Therefore, the Norwegian Authority should focus on this issue as soon as possible.

4- Those who get the opportunity to work abroad (e.g. diplomats and embassy employee) for the Islamic Regime at any level, have shown their 100% loyalty to the regime in theory and practice through many years. If the Islamic Regime did not fully trust them, they would not have taken any work abroad at all.

5- My last advice is that the Norwegian Authority should not trust this guy and those like him at all (26.02.2013).     

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Iran Will Never Shut Down the Fordo Facility!!!

Today, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the Chairman for the Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security of the Islamic Parliament in an interview with ISNA annunced that: Iran will never shut down the Fordo Facility. 
He rejected the new offer of 5+1 (Removing the gold trade sanction) and strongly claimed that shutting down the Fordo Facility is totally out of the question.  

The nuclear clock is ticking.

The Islamic Regime has two clear demands: 1- A Recognition as a Regional Hegemony in the Middle East or 2- A war with the West. How would the leaders in Iran analyze the situation? The main political actors in Iran think: If the West would agree to recognize Iran as a regional hegemon, Iran has won the case. If the West would not agree with this issue and in the final stage would attack Iran, Iran also would win. Because the Islamic Regime would show the entire Muslim countries that Iran has faught againts the West and in this way, Iran would earn some types of recognition and religious prestige. Based on such ideological-political assumption, Khamenei is repeatedly saying the ball is in the West`s ground. From his point of view, in fact, the ball is in the West`s ground.

My final words:
The international community should be smarter and don`t play Khamenei`s favorite game. It should be a third option i.e. neither the nuclear-armed Iran, nor the war. (17.02.2013).       

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Khamenei's Recent Speech!!!

Today, i watched Khamenei's recent speech. Part of the speech was devoted to the recent conflict between Ahamadinejad and the Larijani brothers i.e. the head of the Judiciary authority and the speaker of the Islamic Parliament. The other part of the speech was his assumption about the direct negotiation with the US along with a long list of demands including: the US should recognize Iran`s right to acquire nuclear energy, the US should not interfere in the Middle East, the coercion and sanction do not function anymore, and Bla, Bla, Bla (As usual as always).

My Assumption:I think the main politicians within the Islamic Regime, including Khamenei himslef have reached the POINT OF NO RETURN. Although, he spoke very calm and cold blooded, but i felt his craving for war, deep in his words.
I can predict that the future meeting in Kazakhstan (Feb 26, 2013) will reach nothing too. After that meeting, the Islamic Regime will proabably leave the negotiation for a while, due to the coming presidential election, which will take place on 14 June. Then,,,,
God knows, what will happen from now on until the next 6 months.

My final words: The UN should urgently and seriously concentrate on this issue; otherwise all of us to some extent, will arrive in the new devastating chapter in the history of the world. (16.02.2013). 
I hope my prediction would not come true.  

Friday, February 15, 2013

Wrestling Diplomacy And India`s Intermediation in Iran`s Nuclear Programme!!!

As i follow the news, i noticed that:
1- American wrestling team is heading to Iran. This event reminds me to Ping-Pong diplomacy between China and the US in the 1970s. If my assumption is correct, i have to say:
The political system in China, its ideological characteristics and goals in the past, present and future is not the same as the political system in Iran. This is a clear Mirror Imaging, which would lead you to nowhere. You will understand my short note, when your wrestlers will return back to home. 

2- French President, Francois Hollande asked India to intermediate on the issue of Iran`s nuclear programme.
Regarding this proposal, i have to say: The only country, which couple of years ago could put some pressure on the Islamic Regime with regards to its nuclear ambition, was Russia. Based on many reasons, Russia did not do that. At this stage, however, even Russia, which is the closest ally to Iran cannot stop the Islamic Regime. In my opinion, in this case, Russia plays the role of a double agent in nuclear negotiation with Iran. Russia knows, in the worst case scenario, the Western Countries would not invade Iran the same as the US did in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003). In the worst case scenario, the Western Countries would attack Iran`s nuclear, military or industrial facilities and they would not use ground force at all. If this would happen, which country would get new contracts to rebuild Iran`s infrastructure facilities? The answer to this question is Russia and China.
Therefore, Russia joins the nuclear negotiation with Iran, just in order to pretend that she is respecting the International Law, order and she is collaborating with the West. But at the same time Russia knows that she is the final winner, if the worst case scenario would occur.  
Moreover, Iran functions as an indirect proxy for Russia. Through Iran, so far Russia has managed to keep Assad in the power in Syria.
But in the long term Russia would be one of the main losers, If the Islamic Regime would be able to get the nuclear bomb. If Iran manage to get the nuclear bomb, then the Islamic Regime would start to expand its hegemony in Tajikestan, Daghestan, Azarbaijn, Chechnya, etc amongst different Islamist groups in these areas. In fact, Russia is nurturing not just a snake but a dragon in her bosom. (15.02.2013).          

Thursday, February 14, 2013

The IAEA Inspectors Couldn`t Visit the Parchin Facility Again!!!

Once again, the IAEA inspectors couldn`t visit the Parchin facility and returned home with their empty hands. I have to repeat myself again. If you want to have a better prediction and analysis about the action of the Islamic Regime; just follow these steps:

1- You should put yourself in the shoes of Khamnei. It means, you should look at the whole issue from Khamenei`s perception and not yours.

2- You should have a proper knowledge about the Shia branch of Islam.

3- You should have a proper knowledge about the Iranian culture as well as mentality.

4- Your analyst should not have any connection what so ever with oil, weapon, nuclear lobbies and more importantly some factions within the Islamic Regime.

5- If you manage to follow these four steps mentined above, then you should put aside for a while all theories you have learned so far. After this, put yourself in the shoes of Khamenei in different arenasie.e the domestic as well as international issues. If you manage to achieve this stage precisely, then use your theoretical knowledge and chose appropriate tactic and strategy (i.e. instead of Khamenei). This method is comletely the opposite side of what your analysts have done during the past 34 years.

Notification: Do not pay attention with what a Mullah even a grand ayatollah in Qom, Najaf or a member of Parliament or even the President say. These people are just a bunch of puppets and would divert your mind from a proper analysis. If someone (anyone) tries to encourage you to focus on the statements of such puppets, you should be aware that this person wants intentionally or unintentioanlly give you wrong address. If this person give you wrong address unintentionally; it means S/he does not have any clue about the Islamic Regime. If This person give you wrong address intentionally; it means S/he has some connection with oil, weapon of nuclear company or some factions within the Islamic Regime. In this case, therefore, you should kick such person out of your office without any consideration.

If you follow these simple steps, you will be able to have a better prediction about the Islamic Regime action in the future. Otherwise, whether you like of not, you are just wasting your time, energy and money.   

Monday, February 11, 2013

The Final Countdown!!!

Iran Will Likely Launch a satellite into HEO in the Near Future.

It seems, the Islamic Regime will likely launch a satellite into High Earth Orbit (HEO)in the near future; to an

altitude of almost 35-36,000 km above the Earth. If this plan would come true,then Iran would be able to

reach everywhere in the world by its long-range missiles.

We should bear in mind that: The distance from Tehran to Paris is (4221km), to Tel Aviv (1589 km) to

London (4407 km) and to Washington (10755 km).

Maybe, because of this hidden surprise, Ali Ahani, the Iranian Ambassador in France announced that

Iran is ready to give the IAEA inspectors permission to visit The Parchin Facility. It`s funny, but as i

see the event, it seems the Islamic Regime is the main player of the real carrot and stick game.

Carrort = Visiting the Parchin or using small amount of domestically made nuclear fuel rods in some of its nuclear facilities.

Stick = launching a Long-Range Missile into Space or Exporting 40 Tons Weapons to Yemen.

A tricky but gradually and steady way to reach "Advanced Military Capability" under the name of "Scientific Exploration".  (11.02.2013).

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Khamenei Rejected Joe Biden`s Recent Proposal.

Today, Ayatollah Khamenei rejected Joe Biden`s recent proposal regarding a direct negotiation between the two authorities. During a speech for Air Force Personnel, the supreme leader stated that the policy of the US in the Middle East has failed and Americans need a winning card. Therefore, the US tries to bring Iran to negotiation table. Moreover, he addressed Americans and said "I am not a diplomat, i am a revolutionary and i talk openly and honestly. You have pointed gun at us and you want to have negotiation! The Iranian nation will not be intimidated by these attitudes". Furthermore, he called those Iranian officials, who have optimistic assumption about this issue as "Naive or betrayer" and added that"The negotiation does not solve anything". 
The short text noted above, was brief summary of Khamenei`s statements. At first glance, the readers might think that this speech was just an ordinary and regular talk and nothing more. In my opinion, there are two important points in this simple speech, which should not be underestimated. These points will help us to have a better prediction about the future events. The first point is Khamenei`s assumption about the overal failure of the US in the Middle East.(For further information about Khamenei`s assumption, i would suggest you to see the two essays of 1-”Iran should not get the nuclear bomb” and 2-”Will the US attack Iran” published in this weblog).  
The second point is a strong warning for those Iranian officials, who have optimistic view about the direct negotiation with the US. Khamenei stated that these types of people are either naive or betrayer, which the Iranian nation will deal with them. 
Notification: The Iranian nation will deal with them, means that Intelligence community, the Judiciary authority, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij will deal with them.
The map below illustrates what type of plan the Islamic Regime has for the Middle East.

Red Arrows: Iran’s offensive activities in the Middle East.

Green Arrows: Iran’s final plan for the Middle East.  

Some Key terms for readers to focus more:
1-     Regional Hegemon (J. Mearsheimer).
2-     Chamberlin and Munich Agreement in 1938.

M. Sirani                                                                       (07.02.2013).