Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Delivering S - 300 Rockets to Syria!!!

Delivering S -300 rockets to Syria cannot save Asad Regime. This event would esclate the tension further and change the course of the Middle East dramatically in different aspects for many years to come. What president Putin should know:

1- Asad Regime does not have the same solid political structure that we have observed in the former Soviet Union or current Islamic Regime in Iran. If anything intentionally or unintentionally would happen to Bashar Asad himself, the Syrian political system would collapse during 48 hours time. In this respect, what would happen to these high technological weapons in an unstable country like Syria?

2- Delivering S - 300 rockets to Syria intensifies and spread the tension further between Syria and Israel and some other neighbouring countries, due to the fact that it changes the balance of power fundamentaly in the region. This event would intensify the new round of arms race in the region.

3- There is high probability that some other countries such as Iran as well as fundamentalist groups such as Hezbullah would get access to these high-tech weapons.

In this respect, i can say that Putin has gambled on a dead horse and his move would threaten the peace and stability in the Middle East.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was disapproved by the Guardian Council.

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was disapproved by the Guardian Council. The presidential race in the final stage would possibily countinue between Jalili, Aref and Rohani. Among these three candidates, there is high probability that Jalili would become the next president in Iran. Regardless of who would become the next president in Iran, this development, however,  illustrates some other important issue more than presidential election. It shows clearly that the Islamic Regime is preparing itself for exteremely hard circumstances. As such, the Islamic Regime would try to choose a person as the next president, who has less disagreement with the regime. From this, we can deduce that 5+1 nuclear negotiation would also reach nothing in the future. However, by this, i don`t mean that if Rafsanjani was chosen, we could have seen any progress with regards to Iran`s nuclear negotiation. Because the process of nuclear enrichment by the Islamic Regime was started during Rafsanjani`s presidency and moreover, the president in the Islamic Regime is just a puppet and nothing more.  

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Israeili Attacks Inside Syria Would Provoke Iran.

Israeili attacks inside Syria would provoke Iran. Given the fact that Syria is Iran`s red line, what would be the possible reaction of the Islamic Regime at this stage?

If Iran had the nuclear weapon, it would have responded Israeili attack directly, without any fear with regards to the retaliation of the US and Israeil. Based on passive reaction of Iran, we can claim that Iran has not been able to obtain the nuclear bomb yet. However, the passive reaction of Tehran could be understood as a trick; it means Iran has bigger and more important plan, which it does not want to ruin and destroy it at this stage.
Thus, the probability of Iran`s direct attack against Israel would be very low, at this stage. There might be some possibility that Iran`s subset i.e. Hezbullah would fire some rockets on Israeil. Regarding this issue, i can say that the probability of this event is also very low, due to the fact that Germany, Bulgaria and some other European countries are discussing a plan to whether designate Hezbullah as a terrorist organization or not. This issue like a alarm might prevent Hezbullah to fire too many rockects on Israeil, the same as it has done it before. Or, it might not fire any at all.

M. Sirani      05.05.2013