Tuesday, April 26, 2016

The Vision 2030 Reform in Saudi Arabia: A Risky Reform:

The Vision 2030 Plan (Briefly)

Undoubtedly, this is a massive economic plan for Saudi Arabia. Due to some facts such as: A- economic sector in every country including Saudi Arabia is interconnected and interwoven with other social, cultural and political sectors, B- a simple reform in one sector (E.g. economic sector) will undoubtedly impact other sectors (E.g. social, cultural and political sectors), C- the massive scale of this economic reform, we should undoubtedly expect that this huge economic reform will automatically impact (Domino effect) other social, cultural and political sectors (each to some extent) within Saudi Arabia’s society beyond the will and power of Saudi authority or anyone else. As such, the Vision 2030 reform should be accompanied with some social, cultural and political reforms compatible with economic reform within this plan; otherwise this reform cannot achieve its main goals in an effective and comprehensive manner or in some cases the plan might be counterproductive and create instability within Saudi Arabia.  

As an example, I refer you to the White Revolution reforms performed by King Pahlavi in Iran. The White Revolution was mainly focused on economic terms not social, cultural and political sectors in Iran. As such, the newly economic reform, its consequences and complications were not compatible with previous social, cultural and political sectors in those years in Iran. The result of this contradiction and incompatibility was one of the main reasons of the disaster in 1979, and what we are observing today. This is a historical fact; we cannot perform a reform in one sector successfully within a society (no matter where) without performing compatible reforms in other sectors as well. It is impossible. According to this plan, for example, the Saudi authority would cut the subsidies and would try to increase the taxes. These reforms would change the Saudi’s society in economic term. But these reforms are not pure economic, due to the fact that their implementation would automatically impact the lives of Saudis people in terms of cutting subsidies & increasing taxes. In other words, these two economic reforms would impact social, cultural and political sectors in Saudi Arabia. As such, along with these economic reforms, some political, social and cultural reforms (E.g. education) should be performed; otherwise these two economic reforms would create social, cultural and political instability and uprising in Saudi Arabia whether in short or long term.   

Regardless of some negative points such as cutting the subsidies and privatization, This is a very huge project and in case of implementation, it would automatically impact various social, cultural and political sectors within Saudi Arabia’s society and even beyond. In order to avoid any complication in this matter in the short and long term, it would be wise that Saudi Arabia authority would re-evaluate this project in terms of policy analysis and risk management particularly at this stage that the whole Middle East (including Saudi Arabia itself to some extent) is experiencing various types of social, cultural, religious, ethnic and political instability & conflict. 


M. Sirani                    25.04.2016  



Friday, April 22, 2016

Warning: The Terrorist Group Abu Sayyaf Has Threaten to Execute Its Hostages on 25 April 2016: The Lives of 2 Canadians, 1 Norwegian and 1 Filipina Are in Serious Danger.

According to the TRAC (Terrorism Research Analysis Consortium) the terrorist group Abu Sayyaf has decided to execute its hostages at 3 pm on 25 April 2016, if the ransom has not been paid until that day.



M. Sirani                         22.04.2016

Sunday, April 17, 2016

Saudi Arabia Has The Best Historical Opportunity to Shape the Face of Many Events in the Middle East & Africa in Both Positive and Negative Way.

Contrary to some politicians and pundits, who believe Saudi Arabia is in a very difficult position with regards to many events in the Middle East and Africa, i believe Saudis have some powerful leverages at the present time; some powerful leverages, which can be used in both positive and negative ways and change the course of many events in the region fundamentally. Hope those decision makers and politicians in Saudi Arabia know these potentialities perfectly and use them in a positive manner. Otherwise, they will regret badly in the future.



M. Sirani                          17.04.2016

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

You Cannot Impose Any Sanction on Iran Neither for Ballistic Missile Nor Anything Else; Iran Can Withdraw From the Nuclear Agreement.

There have been some rumors recently that the USA should/might impose some type of sanctions on Iran amid Iran's ballistic missile test or supporting some terrorist groups like Hezbollah, nor can any foreign entity or personal visit Iran's military facilities, etc. In case of imposing any sanction, Iran has the right to / can withdraw from the nuclear agreement, according to this document.

(AS some examples the readers can focus on Articles NR, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 in the document. This document is a serious disaster. To put it simply, Iran has taken you hostage forever with this document; simply because this document gives Iran full permission & authority to withdraw from nuclear agreement at any moment that one or some western countries would try to impose any sanction on Iran based on any reason whatsoever).     

I have said this before and i say it again. Based on the details of Iran's statement on the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, you cannot impose any sanction on Iran based on any reason whatsoever including Iran's ballistic missile.

Here below is the link of the statement in this matter.
http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Islamic-Republic-of-Iran-s-Statement-on-UNSC-Resolution-2231.htm


M. Sirani                      05.04.2016






Norwegian Government is Shooting Itself in the Foot By Implementing A Totally Wrong and Counterproductive Asylum Policy.

The result of Norwegian new asylum policy is disastrous, counterproductive and more costly in different terms for Norway itself. This plan is a huge disgrace to the basic humanitarian values. Those policy makers in Oslo would understand my statement in this matter in the next two or three years; of course, if they would remain in the power up until the next years.

Note: This plan doesn't get a "Z" mark in terms of integration policy,  policy analysis and risk management.  


M. Sirani                         05.04.2016

Sunday, April 3, 2016

Breaking: Panama Papers: Leaked Data About Offshore Bank Accounts of High Ranking People Around the World.

The total leaked data is much bigger than released data by Wikileaks 2010 and Snowden 2013.

OBS: Don't be surprised: the current president of Ukraine and the father of current Prime Minister of the UK are among the released list as i quickly checked.

Check your favorite politicians and world leader in the link below.

https://panamapapers.icij.org/the_power_players/?utm_content=buffer2bc31&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer



https://panamapapers.icij.org/the_power_players/?utm_content=buffer2bc31&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer



M. Sirani                        03.04.2016

Saturday, April 2, 2016

IMF Should Not Play the Game WIth Greece At This Critical Moment (The Lack of Risk Management & Policy Analysis Expert within IMF).

Briefly:

The Lack of Risk Management & Policy Analysis Expert within IMF.

Undoubtedly, Brexit would cause many problems in different terms for the EU. But playing the game with Greece in terms of debt relief at this critical stage that the country is struggling with many problems mainly weak economy and huge influx of refugees, would cause more harms in different terms particularly security arena to the whole EU. The policy makers in the IMF should look at this case with more attention and understand that we are in the beginning of a long term tough and harsh journey in different terms mainly 1- global economic downturn (Based on my prediction, a global economic crisis is around the corner) and 2- The threat of radical Islamic Terrorism, 3- Huge influx of refugees and 4- The possibility of a Grexit as a result of IMF negligence. Any earthquake in Greece at this critical moment would badly shake the whole EU. 


Note: Who are these IMF officials? Don't they see that just a handful terrorists have paralyzed some powerful countries within the EU? Don't they understand the scale of threat & damage? I'm serious: Do these officials have any basic knowledge about some subjects such as Risk Management or Policy Analysis? Do these officials have enough and appropriate qualification for the job they do? Are these IMF officials familiar with the term "Grexit" (A possibility that exists) and its consequences?
It is really shocking me that such a huge organization cannot calculate such a simple issue and its consequences.  I can prove to those IMF officials that at this critical moment (I emphasize at this critical moment, which would continue for some months or maybe some years to come), a Grexit would cause more damages in different terms to the whole EU than a Brexit. Those IMF officials would understand my statement in this matter, if they would conduct a comparison between a Grexit and Brexit in different social, cultural, political, economical and security arenas. The main problem is that those IMF officials are just focusing on economic part of the story and not the other factors. That is totally wrong. 



M. Sirani                     02.04.2016

Reference: Leaked IMF Letter (Huffington Post).




The EU (Greece & Turkey) Refugees Swap Will Highly Likely Cause Revolt & Instability in Both Greece and Turkey (The Chaotic Environment Might Be Used By ISIS).

Briefly:

We should bear in mind that many of these refugees

A- Have paid couple of thousands dollars to reach the EU i.e. Greece.
B- Many of these refugees have lost some of their family members or relatives in this horrific journey.
C- Many of these refugees were in Turkey and due to the lack of basic shelter, medical help, food, etc left Turkey towards Greece.
D- Many of these refugees do not trust Turkey's government in terms of basic civil & human rights and security.
And many other reasons.

The combination of these issues would undoubtedly encourage the refugees to some types of revolt and protest. Such a chaotic environment might be used by ISIS or any other terrorist groups to perform a terrorist attack somewhere within Turkey, Greece or somewhere else. 

Note: We should not forget that both Turkey & Greece, each from different angles, are suffering from some type of instability and domestic problems.


M. Sirani                02.04.2016