Saturday, April 22, 2017

The Possible Result of French Presidential Election 2017 (My Prediction).

Briefly:

M. Le pen and E. Macron will move into the second round. In the second round or Run-Off, M. Le Pen has more chance to win the election. My prediction in this regard would highly likely happen; unless a strange or extraordinary event would happen. The victory of M. Le Pen at this critical historical juncture that we are observing, would not be a simple event like any other ordinary election. Le Pen's victory has many regional and global complications in various terms. Le Pen's victory would push the entire EU towards the edge of total collapse. Her victory means the beginning of the end of the EU & EURO.

NOTE: Some events like Brexit, the Victory of President Trump in the USA and possible victory of M. Le Pen in France along with many other issues around the world indicate a fact that many parts of current international institutions, laws, regulations and conventions are not compatible with the realities of our contemporary world. We need some fundamental changes and adjustments in many areas. Don't you see the consequential collapses around the world? 

M. Sirani            22.04.2017

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

PM May Calls For Early Election=====>The UK is Not In a Good Shape.

Briefly:

Lack of proper qualification, knowledge and expertise. They have started with Brexit; but are confused what they should do from now on; or where they should go!!!!!!


Note: When some people do not have proper qualification, knowledge and expertise would become responsible for a big task,,,,,,, (One of the reasons for an empire to fall). 



M. Sirani             18.04.2017

Friday, April 7, 2017

The First Possible Consequences of Military Strike on Syria.

Briefly:

This apparently One Off military strike on Syria would have many consequences in short & long term beyond the geographical territory of Syria. One of the first possible consequences of this move might be the notion that both Iran & Russia would deploy more military troops and equipment into Syria probably in the next couple of hours & days.
The impact of such a move in terms of Syrian rebels is clear; needless to explore it.

Note: As i said in my previous short note, this One Off military strike will intensify the tension not only within Syria but also in some other areas across the Middle East or probably beyond.


M. Sirani                 07.04.2017

The USA Launched Military Strike on Syria. This Military Strike Would Intensify the Tension in Many Areas.

Briefly:

The USA launched Tomahawk Missile strike on Syrian airfield in retaliation to the recent chemical attack in Idlib area. This event raises three important questions as follows.

The Question 1- Did the Syrian air force drop chemical bomb in Idlib? This is a fact that Assad's regime has treated its opponents in a very cruel and inhuman manner in the last couple pf years. In this respect, the Syrian regime has used chemical weapon against its own people in various occasions in the past. But the idea that Assad's regime dropped chemical bomb (Sarin Gas) in Idlib is something hard to believe, based on many reasons mainly:

1-A: The first issue is the recent victories of the Syrian government. The Syrian government has achieved some magnificent victories in the past couple of months. Among these victories recapturing the city of Aleppo (The capital of Syrian rebels since 2012) could be mentioned. These series of victories indicate a fact that the Syrian regime has the upper hand in comparison with the Syrian rebels. From this we can assume that the Syrian regime has not been in a very critical position that would be forced to use chemical weapon in Idlib to save itself from the rebels.

2-A: The second issue which, might save the Syrian government from this allegation is the recent statements of some high ranking members of Trump administration. In the past couple of days, The United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both stated that the USA would not pursue "Assad Must Go" policy anymore; in order words the first & important priority for the USA is defeating and eradicating the ISIS; not changing the current Syrian government. These statements along with various statements of President Trump in the past were pleasant news for Bashar Assad in a way that Bashar Assad himself in some interview stated that he was ready to cooperate with president Trump in war against ISIS. Considering these positive statements, it is hard to believe that Assad's regime has used chemical weapon in Idlib; simply because the use of chemical weapon would have ruined all those positive statements of U.S. officials.

3-A- The third issue is the mentality of president Trump. Everybody, who have a little bit knowledge and have followed president Trump's statements and actions know one important thing that president Trump is a very serious person. He is not one of those politicians full of just empty words.

Based on brief details mentioned above, the chance that the Syrian forces have dropped chemical bomb in Idlib is very low, in my opinion.

The Question 2- Was this strike one time military strike or would continue?
Trump administration has stated that this military strike was a type of punishment with regard to the recent chemical attack in Idlib. From this we can assume that this might be a one time military operation. In this case, we face another question as follows.
Various groups and organizations in Syria including ISIS or Al-Nusrah front have access to various types of weapons and ammunition including chemical weapons due to 6 years civil war in the country. What would happen if in the next couple of days some of these groups e.g. ISIS launch a chemical mortar and target a Syrian rebel group? What would Trump administration do in such a hypothetical scenario? Would Trump administration launch another military strike against the Syrian government again? (To be honest, the recent military strike would pave the way towards such an operation in the future).

In short, This military strike does not change the Syrian civil war in a very effective and sustainable manner. This operation would on the contrary, pave the way for various groups to use this tactic and provoke the USA to perform more military strike against Assad's regime. Practicing such a tactic, if continues, would finally drag Trump administration into the Syrian civil war and direct military confrontation with Russia, Iran and China at the end of the road. Should this happen, we would witness a broad battlefield beyond the geographical territory of Syria & the Middle East. In such a hypothetical scenario we would observe many changes not only in the Middle East but also in Baltic area. Unfortunately, the results of these events would not be pleasant for neither the USA nor for Arab countries based on many reasons particularly the notion that as it appears the USA & its allies do not have a clear strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East.


Note: Trump administration could use this chemical attack event in a much better manner and get much better results. The lack of clear strategy would lead to disaster. 

M. Sirani                        07.05.2017