Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Special Thanks to the Princeton University for Providing the Best Undercover Position For Mousavian.

Finally after five years, Iran's lobbyist "Hossein Mousavian" has accomplished his mission in the US and returned to Iran. In this respect, we should thank the so-called independent, coeducational and nondenominational Princeton University for facilitating the best undercover opportunity for a criminal and human rights violator such as Hossein Mousavian.  The board of education at the Princeton University should be disgraced for providing this opportunity for a person like Mousavian, who as Iran's ambassador in Germany, was involved in the assassination of Iranian opposition in Berlin. The history will never forget the unforgivable crimes of the Islamic Regime and its domestic as well as foreign supporters.

M. Sirani                                     31.12.2013 

Monday, December 30, 2013

The New Tactic of Saudi Arabia Will Increase the level of Tension in Some Parts of the Middle East.

The recent nuclear deal between Iran and the six world powers in Geneva has been elevating the level of uncertainty and instability among most of the countries in the Middle East particularly for the two regional powers of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Although, there is no clear light at the end of  nuclear negotiation's tunnel with Iran, both Israel and Saudi Arabia feel truly threatened about this deal. There is simple explanation behind this matter.

The politicians in both Israel and Saudi Arabia think that a nuclear deal and more generally any normal relation between Tehran and Washington would offer the Islamic Regime good opportunities from different aspects as following. Firstly, such a nuclear negotiation marathon would give the Islamic Regime enough time to obtain nuclear weapon secretly and gradually. Secondly, any normal relations between Tehran and Washington would indirectly offers Iran free hand to continue further with its hegemonic and expansionist behavior in different parts of the Middle East. These two issues would endanger the security of not only Israel and Saudi Arabia but also their close allies in different parts of the Middle East. These issues, in addition, would threatened Saudi Arabia economically. If Iran would be able to deceive its Western counterparts following the nuclear negotiation, the US and E3 group would lift the economic sanctions on Iran. As such, Iran would be able to sell its oil and gas freely in the international market. Such a event, would decrease the oil revenue of Saudi Arabia to some extent and the same time would economically empower Iran. These assumptions and predictions of the politicians in Israel and Saudi Arabia might be right to some extent based on many reasons. The US reluctance with regards to the Syrian civil war in the last couple of months and recent military deal of selling the Hellfire missiles and ScanEagle drones to Iraq are just some examples, which could be understood in this respect. Through these types of behaviors the US would try to ease the tension with Iran.

Such issues, however, have desperately pushed both Israel and Saudi Arabia toward Russia. Because, Russia is the only actor, which might be able to solve the problems of both Israel and Saudi Arabia at this critical moment. Russia is the main supplier of Iran's nuclear facility-technology and at the same time Russia is the major supporter of Bashar Asad in Syria. During the last couple of months, however, the high ranking officials of Saudi Arabia and Israel have had different meetings with Russian politicians in order to change the behavior of the Kremlin with regards to Iran's nuclear activity and the Syrian civil war. As the media reveal, all these attempts have been failed; Russia has not changed its behavior with regards to these matters up until this moment.

In sum, the US reluctance and Russian ignorance in these matters, however, have been forcing Israel and Saudi Arabia to take care of these problems by their own. Saudi Arabia's massive financial aid to Egypt could be understood in this respect. By this move, Saudi Arabia against the will of the US, the EU, and Iran has been helping the military force in Egypt to defeat the Muslim Brotherhood. The recent Saudi Arabia's 3$ billion grant to the Lebanese army could also be understood in this respect. Through this type of aid, Saudi Arabia would try to gradually decrease the power and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and consequently in Syria. For the first time, the Lebanese army fired anti-aircraft guns at two Syrian helicopters that violated the Lebanese airspace yesterday. This is the first sign of Saudi Arabia's new tactic in the Middle East; a type of self-help. Such a new tactic, consequently, will increase the level of tension in different parts of the Middle East. As such, we will possibly witness more tension and sectarian violence inside Lebanon (between Hezbollah and Sunni groups), Iraq, between Lebanon & Syria, between Israel & Lebanon (Hezbollah) and possibly between Gaza Strip and Israel, in Bahrain, Yemen  along with Afghanistan, much more than what we have experienced in the last couple of years. These tensions will not be limited to the Middle East; it will spread to some parts of the former Soviet Union territorial geography as well.

M. Sirani                             31.12.2013      

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Another American Foreign Policy Mistake; This Time in Iraq.

As the media reveal, the US has begun to sell some
AGM-114 Hellfire missile (air -to- surface) and ScanEagle drone to Iraq. The consequences of this deal would not be beneficial for the US, Iraqi people and the Middle East based on some reasons including:

1- Everybody knows that Nouri Al Maleki is the puppet of the Islamic Regime in Iraq. From this, we can deduce that the US is transferring these high tech military equipment indirectly into the hand of the Islamic Regime. As such, we should expect that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset the Quds Force will be able to use these weapons or their technologies in different parts of the Middle East and North Africa somewhere in the future.

2- In reality, Iraq is a failed state. The shaky, vulnerable and weak political system in this country does not have proper control over much of its territory including in its capital Baghdad. The lack of a democratic and stable political system has created a chaotic environment in Iraq. There are increasing numbers of sectarian violence between different criminal-religious- fundamentalist groups including Al Qaeda's affiliates in the country. In such a chaotic environment, there is high probability that some of these criminal or fundamentalist groups will get access to these high-tech military equipment in the future. We should not forget that those Stinger Missiles that the US handed to Taliban to use them against the Soviet forces, were used later by Taliban against the US and its allies forces in Afghanistan. 

3- In addition, Iraq is experiencing a devastating civil war in one of its neighboring countries i.e. Syria. If the international community would not be able to find a fundamental solution for the Syrian civil war as soon as possible, sooner or later, the three countries of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq would be dragged into a catastrophic conflict between different religious and fundamentalist groups, much more than what we are experiencing at the present time; a type of deeper regional conflict.     

The policy-makers in the US should pay little attention to the consequences of this deal in the long term. However, the decision & policy- makers in the US might think that with this type of incentive they would be able to ease the tension in Syria or achieve a better position with regards to Iran's nuclear negotiation. In this respect, I can say: you are completely in the wrong direction.

M. Sirani                            28.12.2013

Sunday, December 22, 2013

An Immediate Temporary Truce in Syria is Needed.

Regardless of what the outcome of Geneva III conference would be, the UN should try to implement and enforce an immediate temporary truce in Syria, due to the harsh living conditions of the Syrian refugees in neighboring countries and millions of Syrians, who have been internally displaced in the country. Such a truce is beneficial for the Syrian Regime, the opponents and most importantly for the poor Syrian people from different aspects.

This event is possible, if the UN would be able to discuss the necessity of a temporary truce in an appropriate, comprehensive and neutral manner with the Syrian Regime and the opponents. We  should not forget that we had the best opportunity to implement such a truce right after the latest chemical attack in Syria in 21 Aug, 2013 (As I have suggested in my previous short notes repeatedly).

Since then, many innocent people have lost their lives in this battle; many others have left the country and many other have been internally displaced within Syria. A temporary truce would prevent additional unnecessary collateral damages and new waves of refugees. Such simple outcomes do not damage or undermine the power, authority and credibility of neither Bashar Asad nor the Syrian opposition nor the coming Geneva III conference. Implementing a temporary truce would just help to those poor Syrian people, who have lost everything due to the lack of every basic rule, norm, and law at the local, regional and international level. Thus, it would be wise for Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi to focus on this issue as well in addition to his effort for preparing the invitation guest list for the Geneva III conference.

M. Sirani                              22.12.2013

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Turkish Financial Scandal.

The recent Turkish corruption scandal clearly shows how the Iranian Regime has been able to bypass the economic sanctions. This is just a small sample. There are many other agents like Babak Zanjani and Reza Zarrab, who work for the Iranian Regime and have bases abroad. These agents have bases in different countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Russia, Afghanistan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, etc.
According to the Turkish authorities, Reza Zarrab alone has been involved in nearly 87 billion euro irregular money transactions mostly with Iran. Given the fact that Reza Zarrab and Babak Zanjani are not the only Iran's agents, who are involved in these types of irregular and illegal activities, we should find  reasonable answers for the following questions:
1- Can the economic sanctions change the main course of the Islamic Regime?
2-  Has the economic sanctions pushed Iran toward the nuclear negotiation?

M. Sirani                                 21.12.2013    

Monday, December 16, 2013

Ukraine At The Crucial Historical Crossroads.

Ukraine at the crucial historical crossroads: between accepting the invisible colonialism rule of the EU or obeying the visible hegemony of big brother Russia.

Nothing more to say; but from the bottom of my heart, I wish the best for Ukrainian people.

M. Sirani                17.12.2013

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

A Golden Dream For the Islamic Regime of Iran.

If Iran would be able to lift those sanctions imposed by the Security Council even temporarily, the country would become untouchable, when it comes to its nuclear activity, due to the increasing level of conflicts between Russia, China and the West at the present and also in the future. Should this happen, Russia and China would veto any resolution imposed by the West against Iran within the Security Council. Following this event, Iran will waiting for the Year 2015; a year that Chinese Yuan will become one of the most used international currencies around the globe. This is the golden dream of Iran; this is the time that the Islamic regime will become an untouchable political system in the world.

M. Sirani                              11.12.2013  

Monday, December 9, 2013

Iran's Military & Intelligence Budget Will Increase in The Next Year.

Iran's military & Intelligence budget for the next year (1393) will increase as follows.

1- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps:

Budget for year 1392 ==========> 36,896,523,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 44,566,686,000,000 Rial
 Nearly 20.7% increase

2- The Ministry of Intelligence Service:

Budget for year 1392 ==========> 11,381,063,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 13,674,270,000,000 Rial
Nearly 20.1% increase

3- The Regular Army:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 34,446,164,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 51,085,584,000,000 Rial
Nearly 48.3% increase

As noted above, the Regular Army will have a massive increase in its budget in comparison with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the next year. The reason behind this might be enormous economic sanctions imposed by the international community on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset organizations. Through this change, the Islamic Regime might 1- try to bypass the sanctions to some degree or 2- portray an unrealistic image that Iran is decreasing the overall power of the Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps. The massive increase in the military and Intelligence budget might also shed light on the possible outcome of the nuclear negotiation. Those optimist politicians should pay more attention to this part of the story, when it comes to Iran's nuclear activity and Iran's presence in the Syrian civil war. However, we should bear in mind that due to the serious lack of transparency and accountability within the Islamic Regime, the real military & Intelligence budget numbers are much higher than what the Regime has revealed in the media.

M. Sirani                                      09.12.2013

Friday, December 6, 2013

Nelson Mandela "A Real Prophet of Liberty, Freedom and Human Dignity" Dies At Age 95.

A great human being, who spent 27 precious years of his life in captivity, has left us. A real prophet, who devoted his entire life to the basic principles of human dignity, freedom, liberty and brotherhood has died at the age of 95. Let us, instead of mourning and (Crocodile Tears of those, who had closed their eyes to his captivity, due to economic and political interests in South Africa) follow Mandela's legacy. Let us make a better world for 2,7 billion innocent people around the world, who live under poverty line with less than 1 or 2 dollars a day; let us help millions of people around the world, who are in captivity because of their struggles for the basic human rights & needs.

M. Sirani                        06.12.2013        

Monday, December 2, 2013

Once Again Afghanistan Will Fall In The Hands Of The Taliban After A Bloody Civil War.

No matter the US would sign a security agreement with the current Afghan government or not, Afghanistan will fall in the hands of the Taliban after a bloody civil war as soon as the US and NATO troops would leave the country in late 2014. We should all be aware of self deception and not fall pray to it. The US and NATO troops (nearly 150,000 personnel) have not been able to defeat the Taliban after all these years. How would a security agreement, which allows some American troops (Between 6000 to 9000 personnel) remain in Afghanistan, be able to save the Afghan government against the Taliban?

Moreover, the president Karzai would try to ignore this security agreement with the US. The reason behind this is that the president Karzai might think that he would be able to keep the power in Afghanistan by making a deal or a type of reconciliation (Misassumption) with the Taliban. In this respect, I can say that the president Karzai is in the totally wrong direction. The Taliban would not share the political power in Afghanistan with anyone including Karzai. This is an inseparable ideological characteristic of the Taliban.

As soon as the US and NATO troops would begin to leave Afghanistan, the Taliban would start to seize the power step by step in the whole country. This process would be accompanied with some events as follows.
1- The country would experience a new wave of civil war worse than what it is now.
2- The Karzai's government would finally collapse.
3- Afghanistan would become another battlefield between Iran's troop (Shiite followers) and some troops supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, some other Arab countries in the region and Pakistan (Taliban + Sunni followers).

In sum, Afghanistan would become the biggest fiasco of the US and NATO in the world in different terms (e.g. Nation building, capacity building, economic, political, social, cultural, etc).

M. Sirani                                 02.12.2013

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

What Has Javad Zarif Said About Arak Nuclear Plant and The Additional Protocol Today?

Today, at a parliamentary session, Javad Zarif explored different parts of the recent Geneva Agreement. In this speech, Zarif emphasized on two important issues including the Heavy Water plant in Arak and Additional Protocol. With regards to Arak nuclear plant, once again, Zarif claimed that the construction of the Heavy Water plant in Arak will unstoppable continue the same is before. When it comes to the Additional Protocol, Zarif claimed that the approval of the Additional Protocol lies in the hands of the Islamic Parliament not the Government (Majles). 

Given the fact that the both issues of the Heavy Water plant in Arak and the Additional Protocol supposed to be some important parts of this agreement, a question arises from Zarif's statement. Who is lying in these matters; Zarif or his counterparts within E3+3 group?

M. Sirani                           27.11.2013

Zarif's speech (2013). URL< http://www.tasnimnews.com/Home/Single/204247>. Accessed on: 27.11.2013.

Monday, November 25, 2013

An Important Missing Link in the Recent Geneva Conference!?

In the previous short note, I explored some differences between the details, which have been included in the recent Geneva Agreement and the details that Javad Zarif and Ali Akbar Salehi stated in their press conferences after this conference. However, as I reviewed the details of the Geneva Agreement once again, I understood that this Agreement is missing another important part. This important part is Iran's Laser Enrichment Activities. In the Geneva Agreement has not been written anything at all about this important issue. Based on this point and what I have explored in the previous short note, I can say: In the long run, Iran will be the real winner of the nuclear negotiation.

In sum: let be honest with ourself. Through the last three years, Iran has managed to survive devastating economic and political sanctions. The experience of last three years shows that Iran has learned to bypass some parts of the sanctions; otherwise, it would have not been able to survive up until this moment. In addition to these enormous pressures, Iran has been able to preserve its full hegemony in Iraq. Moreover, under the pressure of these enormous sanctions, Iran has managed
to save Asad's regime up until now, against the will and activity of the most powerful countries such as America, England, France and almost all Arab countries in the Middle East. Furthermore, we know; the Iranian Regime also knows that no country would be able to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities through any type of military strike. Considering these simple facts, we should ask ourself an important question as follows. Why should Iran retreat from its nuclear activity, while it has lots of winning cards in its hand at this stage?   

M. Sirani                          25.11.2013

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Some Ambiguous Issues Within Recent Nuclear Agreement With Iran (Who Lies?).

As I review the details of current nuclear agreement between Iran and E3+3 group, I see some ambiguous issues as follows.

The official website of Voice of America (VOA) has published a Persian version of the current nuclear agreement in Geneva. According to this article, for example:

1- Iran should not enrich uranium above 5%.
2- Iran should either convert its 20% enriched uranium (Nearly 200 kg) into 5% enriched uranium or neutralize it or convert it into a form that cannot be enriched to higher level more than 20%.
3- Another part of this agreement is about the Heavy Water Plant in Arak. According to this part of the agreement, Iran should completely deactivate and dismantle Arak plant and don't proceed any activity or development at all in this nuclear plant (see link 1).

The ambiguous issues derive from Javad Zarif's press conference after the Geneva III agreement. In an interview, which has been published in iribnews website (an Iran's official news agency), Zarif claims something completely different than what has been mentioned in VOA website.

In this interview, for example, Zarif claims:
None of Iran's nuclear activities including Arak Heavy Water Plant will neither shut down nor stop . Furthermore, Zarif claims that Iran needs 20% enriched uranium for its research reactor in Tehran. As such, Iran will continue with this type of enrichment process in the future too; the same as it has done it in the past (see link 2).

By a simple comparison between these two versions (i.e. Zarif's press conference and the article published in VOA website), we come up with some questions as follows:
1- Does Javad Zarif lie in this matter?
2- Is there any misinterpretation in the Voice of America's article (from English to Persian)?
3- Is there any misunderstanding about the details of this agreement between Iran and E3+3 group?

Ambiguity with regards to Geneva Agreement tends to increase, when we pay attention to what Ali Akbar Salehi says. Today, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization in an interview with ILNA claimed that Iran unstoppable will continue with its nuclear activities in all its nuclear facilities including the Heavy Water Plant in Arak.

We should bear in mind that Iran would be able to obtain nuclear weapons by using two methods. The first method is that Iran would be able to enrich uranium up until 90-95%. The second method is that Iran would be able to use some amount of plutonium, which would be produced from its Heavy Water Plant in Arak. As Zarif and Salehi after this agreement claim, , Iran still is able to enrich uranium up until 20% for its research reactor in Tehran and Arak nuclear facility would continue to work the same as before. A serious question arises from this short note. What does President Obama mean, when he claims "the deal includes "substantial limitations" on Iran?  

In sum, it seems there is some misunderstanding or something wrong within the details of this agreement. The recent Geneva Agreement to some extent resembles me to another Munich Agreement.

M. Sirani                                     24.11.2013


Link 1: Persian Version of the agreement published in VOA (2013). URL< http://ir.voanews.com/content/agreement-iran-5plus1-geneva/1796522.html>. Accessed on: 24.11.2013.

Link2: Zarif's press conference with iribnews (2013).
URL< http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/161857.htm>. Accessed on: 24.11.2013.

If my short note is not clear enough, perform a simple research in both links noted above and today's Ali Akbar Salehi speech in Tehran.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Important Message To South Korea, Japan and India

Those South Asian countries that are importing their oil, gas and other important natural resources from Iran, should find a new reliable, stable and secure supplier, no matter what the outcome of current Geneva Conference would be. The politicians and policy- makers in these countries should understand that the Iranian Regime cannot be trusted in this important matter based on two main reasons including 1- Iran's adventurous behavior at the local, regional and global level. 2- Iran's close, inseparable and unlimited ties with China, North Korea and Russia. Based on these reasons, it would be wise that some countries such as South Korea, Japan and India do not put their eggs in Iran's basket specially when it comes to some important and vital resources such as oil and gas. These countries should not put their security, security of their economy and more importantly their level of vulnerabilities at risk with regards to adventurous and unpredictable behavior of the Iranian Regime.

M. Sirani                             23.11.2013

Friday, November 22, 2013

Sending A Man Into Space.

Yesterday, in an interview with IRNA, Hamid Fazeli (2nd Name: Mohsen Kafi) the current head of the Iranian Space Agency (ISA) claimed that Iran is preparing to send a man into space somewhere in the future.

The nature of this move i.e. sending a man into space, is pure scientific and peaceful as Hamid Fazeli claimed. This move, however, is exactly the same as peaceful nuclear activity of the Iranian Regime. I emphasize on these two issues; because I don't want anyone think that Iran is trying to develop long range nuclear warhead secretly under the name of peaceful and scientific activity. To put it simply, every move of the Iranian Regime is pure peaceful and scientific. In this respect, establishment of Hezbollah, supporting different radical Shiite groups around the world,  arms trafficking, different activities of the IRGC and Quds Force around the globe could be mentioned. All these activities have peaceful, scientific and progressive nature.

I believe this is the time that we should change the name of Iran to: The Peaceful Islamic Republic of Iran.

M. Sirani                          22.11.2013   

Thursday, November 21, 2013

What Have We Missed?

Almost three months ago, when the horrific chemical attack was occurred in Syria, I wrote many short notes repeatedly and claimed: "I have a solution for the Syrian civil war"; "we can use this disastrous inhuman event and turn it into a golden opportunity"; "we can completely change the direction of the Syrian civil war, etc. (See my short notes from 24.08.2013 from over). I didn't publish the whole my plan in my blog due to the fact that I didn't want to see that Iran and its allies use this horrific chemical attack in their benefits. All of you remember that the situation was totally critical. It was a moment that the US and France had decided to launch a military strike on Syria. That critical situation finally forced me to publish the short note titled "A plan that might save the world from an additional disaster" in my blog on 07.09.2013. If we could implement my plan earlier than Russia and Iran, we might have been able to decrease the influence or dismantle the roles of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria; we might have been able to use that opportunity in order to get a upper hand with regards to Iran's nuclear negotiation; we might have been to change the direction of the Syrian civil war in a positive way. Now, the international community has lost the battle in Syria to the group of Asad's regime, Iran, Hezbollah. This event has given Iran an extra upper hand or a winning card with regards to its nuclear activity. As such, the politicians in Tehran think that they are really untouchable in the Middle East; because they have saved Asad's regime against the rest of the world in different critical occasions. Therefore, I believe the chance that Iran would retreat from its nuclear activity at this particular time is very low. As I have mentioned in my earlier short notes, Iran is following the two paths and methods of North Korea and Israel parallel to each other with regards to its nuclear activity. Iran might give up one of these two nuclear projects (Israeli or North Korean model), in order to ease or lift the sanctions. But the chance that Iran would simultaneously give up both these nuclear projects (i.e. Israeli and North Korean Model) is almost impossible. And, this subject is something that Israeli intelligence service is fully aware of that more than any other intelligence services around the world. They know exactly which types of methods Iran is pursuing.      

In sum, the international community has missed that historical event with regards to the Syrian civil war. Thus, let us don't miss another historical event once again. In order to avoid another failure, we should force Iran to accept the Additional Protocol. We should remember that any agreement with regards to Iran's nuclear activity without the Additional Protocol (Imposed and monitored by IAEA) is worthless and useless. We should not repeat another Munich Agreement.

M. Sirani                                  21.11.2013     

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Geneva Meeting 3 between Iran and the E3+3.

Based on the comments and discussions of different politicians in Iran, It seems the genie is (or I might say the genie is already) out of the bottle. If the E3+3 do not want to have any direct military confrontation with Iran in the near future, they should force Iran to accept the Additional Protocol at this stage. Otherwise be prepared to accept everything in the Middle East, except peace and stability in the future.

M. Sirani                               20.11.2013


Sunday, November 17, 2013

Without The Additional Protocol (Imposed & Controlled by IAEA), Any Agreement about Iran's Nuclear Activity Would be Worthless and Useless.

The additional protocol, which allows IAEA's inspectors for unannounced and unexpected visit, should be the first article in the statute of the IAEA. To put it simply, every country, which would decide to build a nuclear plant, should mandatory sign this agreement from the beginning; in the first step of its nuclear activity. The UN should get good lessons from North Korea and Iran in this matter.

So is the case of chemical weapons. A new member of the UN should sign different agreements with regards to the Convention of  Chemical Weapons. If the UN would manage to act in this way, the international community would get less conflict in the future. The Republic of South Sudan is a clear example in this particular matter. The South Sudan was recognized as a new Member State by the United Nations General Assembly on 14 ‎July 2011. Yet, the country has not signed and ratified the Convention of the Chemical Weapons. Something, which we could have done it easily during a one day negotiation on July 2011 without any time, energy and money wasting. We should not forget: prevention is better and cheaper than cure. 

M. Sirani                                17.11.2013

Friday, November 15, 2013

Do You See Any Correlation Or Not Yet?

The recent U.N. atomic watchdog report claims that Iran has not made radical changes in its nuclear activity since three months ago.

The chemical attack in Syria, which killed more than 1400 innocent people, was occurred almost three months ago.

Do you see any correlation between these two events or not yet?

These are just two simple sentences, but the correlation between them describes lots of things, which should not be ignored.

You might think you are smarter than the Iranian Regime. You might think that you can play the game of stick and carrot with the Iranian Regime in the next couple of years up until the end of your presidency without having any military confrontation with Iran. In response to these assumptions, I can say: you are in the wrong direction. Iran does not need three or four years to pursue its main goal.

It should be mentioned that I'm totally against the Iranian regime and at the same time against any military confrontation against the Iranian Regime. Because based on many reasons, I know clearly that even an extensive military strike cannot stop Iran's nuclear activity.

M. Sirani                              15.11.2013

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

At The Present, A Peace Agreement Between Israel and Plestine is Possible.

Against All odds, I claim:

Such a peace agreement to large extent will paralyze Iran and Hezbollah, if (I emphasize If) the politicians and policy - makers in Palestine, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states would design and perform it in an appropriate manner. The result would be much more beneficial for all the people in the Middle East, particularly for Palestinian and Israeli people in the long term. the Israeli and Palestinian authorities should sign a fair and sustainable agreement. Saudi Arabia and Qatar should disarm Hamas. Other Arab States should also help in this matter.This is a good historical moment to heal this 50 years old wound once and for ever. By this, the international community would put an extra pressure on Iran and Hezbollah with regards to their terrorist activities. By this move, Iran and Hezbollah would be paralyzed to some extent in the region, if the politicians and policy-makers in Israel, Palestine and other Arab States would play the game in an appropriate and fair manner.

M. Sirani                                13.11.2013

Monday, November 11, 2013

Building a Sustainable Peace Between Israel, Palestine and Other Arab States.


As I have repeatedly mentioned in some previous short notes, Iran is going to win the war in Syria. In addition, Iran was close to win a perfect deal with regards to its nuclear activity in the recent P5+1 negotiation in Geneva. If the situation continues the same as it is now, the Arab States and Israel will face a huge disaster somewhere in the future. I believe it will come a moment that none of these states will be able to directly or indirectly control or prevent Iran's expansion. Thus, it would be wise for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other Arab States to build a sustainable peace with each other with regards to Palestine. Such a peace agreement would be beneficial for all of them and at the same time would isolate Iran more than ever in The Middle East. All Arab states should understand that they cannot simultaneously continue with their hostility against Iran and Israel. So is the case of Israel. Israel cannot also fight in different battlefields. More importantly, Israel and the Arab States should understand that such a fragmentation and hostility would weakened all of them in any confrontation against Iran. We should not forget that Iran has won the war in Syria up until this moment partly due to these types of fragmentations within the Syrian oppositions, within the super powers and within the Arab States. I fully aware that this is not an easy task. But I know it is not impossible. The timing is suitable. Some other issues and goals with regards to this peace plan are also negotiable and possible to achieve. The authorities of Israel, and the Arab States including Palestine should ignore the negative voices of the extremists and the military corporations in this important matter; instead, they should focus on a long term benefit; they should spare their powers and resources for major challenges in the future.

Those, who are responsible for a real peace process between Israel and Palestine should use this historical moment.

M. Sirani                                         11.11.2013

Friday, November 8, 2013

Iran's Nuclear Negotiation in Geneva (08.11.2013).

I think the most important issue at this stage is a strict system of unannounced inspection and supervision amid Iran's nuclear activity. Such an additional protocol, which would allow IAEA to have comprehensive surveillance over Iran's nuclear activity, should be part of any agreement between Iran and P5+1 group at this stage. Without such a comprehensive control, any agreement about some issues such as heavy water reactor in Arak, 3.5 % , 5%  or even 20% enriching uranium would be worthless; just a piece of paper without any legal, reliable and real value. The international community will regret in less than one year, if Iran would not sign such an additional protocol at least at this stage.

If Iran would manage to obtain nuclear warhead, the international community should close its eyes to every event, which would occur in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Instead, the whole world should focus on the second phase of Iran's expansion. The second phase would forcefully begin step by step from Bahrain, Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Sudan and consequently would spread to the rest of Africa. These events could also be understood as the beginning of unlimited arms race and increasing numbers of interstate war in the Middle East and Africa for many years to come.

Different evidences, however, indicate that Iran is following the two paths and methods of North Korea and Israel, parallel to each other with regards to its nuclear activity. In this respect the two examples of Fordo underground nuclear plant and Heavy water reactor in Arak could be mentioned. My anticipation is that at this stage, Iran might gives up one of these two types of nuclear projects in order to get rid of some of the sanctions, but the chance that Iran gives up both these two types of nuclear projects simultaneously is very low or i might say almost impossible. In sum, it seems, the genie is gradually going out of the bottle. However, At the present, the international community has just three limited options and nothing more. These options are as follows.

1- Accepting a nuclear-armed Iran. (The international community cannot accept this option based on many reasons).

2- Launching military strike on Iran's nuclear plants. (In addition to enormous collateral and environmental damages, the military strike can cause temporary delay in Iran's nuclear activity, but it cannot completely stop it).

3- Supporting the third wave of Iranian opposition, those, who want to overthrow the entire Islamic Regime and establish a real democratic and secular political system in Iran. (By third wave of Iranian opposition, I don't mean those Iranians that you have supported during the past 34 years; I don't mean those Iranians that you have promoted in your ministries or institutions during the past 34 years. Because you have reached at this critical point with regard to Iran's nuclear activity mostly based on wrong analyses (intentionally or unintentionally) of these types of Iranians).

If we analyze these three options from different angles (security, economic, political, social, cultural, environmental), we will see that the third option is the best one. By implementing this option, the international community would be able to put an end to Iran's nuclear ambition. This is the only reliable option.

I don't believe to miracle, but please leave a comment for me, if you think there is a fourth option in this regard.

M. Sirani                            08.11.2013

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Iran's New Trick Within 5+1 Group.

It seems Iran would try to involve Italia in the nuclear negotiation. By this, Iran would try to create more fragmentation within 5+1 group. Should this happen, Iran would earn enough time to achieve its main goal with regard to its nuclear activity.

M. Sirani                        8.11.2013

Recent Gallup Research About Iran's Nuclear Activity Reminds Me to Dewey&Truman (1948) Ellection.

Gallup company has recently performed a research about Iran's nuclear program. In this research, Gallup employees have collected the data through telephone interviews with nearly 4500 Iranians, who live inside Iran. The result, however, indicates that most  Iranians back Iran's nuclear program as Gallup claims. Honestly, this event reminds me to the presidential election of 1948 in the US, when Gallup predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman.

Given the fact that the Islamic Regime is one of the worst violators of basic human rights in the world, shouldn't we have doubt about the reliability, credibility and validity of recent Gallup research? Do Iranian people, who live inside Iran, dare to neutrally and honestly answer some questions about a sensitive and important issue such as Iran's nuclear activity,without any fear from the regime through a telephone interview with someone outside Iran?

Dear Gallup: are you kidding me? We are Erthian not Marsian. You are free to make a nuclear deal with the Islamic Regime; this is your choice. But please do not damage the reputation of statistics subject with this type of clear failure, because we have suffered a lot to learn this subject during our study.

M. Sirani                                      07.11.2013

Monday, November 4, 2013

Khamenei's Recent Speech.

Yesterday, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei delivered a powerful speech to a group of students. His speech illustrates Iran' foreign policy with regard to some important issues including: nuclear negotiation with 5+1 group, Israel and the relationship between the US and Iran in a clear and comprehensive way. The international community should pay attention to this speech word by word; because this speech clearly indicates Iran's future moves with regard to many issues.
The most important parts of Khamenei's speech are as follows.

1- Iran would not retreat from its nuclear activity.

2- The US is at weakest economic and political conditions, whether in domestic as well as international arena. Contrary to the US, Iran has become stronger than before in different terms, as Khamenei claimed.

3- The conflict between the US and Iran is not just about nuclear issue; it is inherent and antagonistic, which has begun from 1979. The US would try to prevent Iran's hegemony in the Middle East, as Khamenei stated. Therefore, Iran should not trust the US.

4- Regarding Israel, Khamenei said: we have said it before; we say it today, and we will say it in the future too that "the Zionist regime is an illegitimate and bastard regime".

As I anticipated before, major changes are under way in the Middle East. These changes will impact the whole world from different angles.

These are the important issues, which the BBC Persian has not expressed any of them in its article published yesterday.

M. Sirani                        04.11.2013

Friday, October 25, 2013

Major Changes Under Way in The Middle East.

In the next couple of months, we might experience major changes in the Middle East.  These changes would consequently impact most part of the world in different aspects.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Releasing Iran's Frozen Assets Means: Betraying the Iranian, Syrian and Millions of People Acroos The Middle East.

It seems the US and EU authorities are looking for an opportunity to release billions of dollars frozen Iran assets. Should this happen, the Iranian Regime would get access to nearly $50 billion dollars. The smart policy makers in both US and EU should pay attention to some issues as follows.

Firstly: this amount of money in reality belongs to those majority of Iranian people, who live under poverty line; it belongs to those Iranian people, who are suffering the most, and not the Islamic Regime.

Secondly: Releasing these frozen assets would empower Iran to financially support and promote its terrorist activities across the Middle East. In other words, the US and EU are paying the salaries of the Quds forces, Hezbollah members and other Iran's proxies by releasing these assets.
To put its simply, the US and EU indirectly would pay money to the Quds and Hezbollah members to kill the people in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and other places in the Middle East.

Thirdly: Although the United Nations have officially proposed the Geneva Conference, but we all know that the US and EU are the main actors behind this proposal. This is a serious question that the policy makers in the US and EU should answer it, if they would release Iran's frozen assets.

You are supporting the Syrian opposition and at the same time you are financially assisting the Iranian Regime by releasing these frozen assets. How do you justify your act? Double standard, triple standard or multiple standard?

This is an outrageous scandal. Releasing these frozen assets is equivalent to betraying the poor Iranian people, the Syrian people and millions of other people across the Middle East, who are suffering from different Iran's terrorist activities. The international community, particularly the Arab League should not let this happen. In this respect, the Arab League and the real Syrian opposition should boycott the Geneva II conference. Maybe in this way, the international community would be able to teach a lesson to the US and EU with regards to their unfair multiple standard behaviors. The US and EU policy makers should learn that they cannot trade the lives and rights of millions of people in Iran, Syria and other places in the Middle East with their nuclear negotiation with the clero-totalitarian Regime of Iran. Enough is enough.

To the policy makers in the US and EU:
During the past 34 years, you have done enormous mistake with regard to analyzing the Islamic Regime, its structure, behaviors, and its intentions in domestic as well as in the international arena. You did enormous mistake in this matter, partly, because most of your Iranian analysts were and are some members of the different factions within the Islamic Regime. You are those, who have been selling nuclear devices to Iran; you are those, who have been educating the Iranian Regime's affiliates in your best ranking universities and institutes; you are those, who have been promoting the former Iranian regime's affiliates with different official prices and titles. As such, you have let the Iranian Regime to easily and steady reach this critical point with regard to its nuclear activity. In this respect: why should we, the Iranian people, and millions of other people in the Middle East pay the price of your mistake? Why should we pay the price of your wrong analyses? Why should we pay the price of your opportunist behavior? How should your close allies in the Middle East trust your words and promises, when they see that your are releasing Iran's frozen assets and at the same time claim that you are supporting the Syrian people against Bashar Asad? How should Israel and the Arab League trust your words?  

M. Sirani                              23.10.2013

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Geneva 2 Conference: Do not Trade the Basic Rights of the Poor Syrian People With Iran's Nuclear Negotiation.

I don't have the time to elaborate this issue; but it think the simple title noted above is crystal clear enough. Some might think by ignoring the Syrian conflict or decreasing the support of the Syrian opposition, they might be able to get an advantage in Iran's nuclear negotiation. In response to this type of assumption, I can say: you are completely in the wrong direction.

M. Sirani                    22.10.2013

Saturday, October 19, 2013

The Chance that Iran Signs The Additional Protocol, Is Very Low.

So far, Iran has managed to save Asad's regime by diverting the mind of the international community from a military strike on Syria into its powerful bargaining chip: the nuclear negotiation. From now on, Iran would try to preserve its nuclear activity without any additional economic sanction. In this respect, the nuclear negotiation facilitates the best opportunity for Iran. By using this negotiation, so far, Iran has been able to save itself from new economic sanction. This is exactly, what Iran needs at the present time; buying the necessary time for its secret nuclear activity. Iran would probably continue with this game in the close future. The chance that Iran would sign the additional protocol during this period of time (nearly one year) is very low or I might say is almost impossible. Because during the past years, Iran has learned to bypass the sanctions; Iran has learned to adapt itself with current sanctions.

M. Sirani                                               19.10.2013       

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Does Anyone Care About The ongoing Sectarian Violence in Iraq?

Does the UN have any idea what is going on in Iraq every day? Or maybe, the file of Iraq has been lost in the UN's archive!
Or maybe some analysts think that with this type of violence they can put extra pressure on Iran. In this respect, I have to say that with this type of action, you cannot defeat Iran or weaken its influence in Iraq. On the contrary, this sectarian violence would facilitate better opportunities for Iran from different angles. Briefly, it would legitimize Iran's presence in Iraq in the sense that Iran claims that its Quds force defends the Shiite people in Iraq against their enemies. This sectarian violence would also help Iran to recruit and mobilize large number of Shiite followers and use this army in both Iraq and Syria. At the present, Syria is the most important Achilles' Heel of Iran. Without a free Syria, you cannot dismantle Hezbollah; you cannot bring stability in Iraq.

M. Sirani                        17.10.2013                 

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

A Consideration With Regard To Current Nuclear Negotiation in Geneva (15 & 16.10.2013).

Any agreement with Iran should include an important and fundamental point. This important point is that the IAEA nuclear inspectors should have the right and authority to visit all Iran's nuclear plants (particularly Fordo, Arak, Natanz plants) in an unannounced and unexpected manner at any time, when they require.

I have no idea about other issues discussed in today's meeting in Geneva. But as far as I understood, this is one of the important missing links in this meeting. However, i hope those experts, who are attending this negotiation, in addition to Zarif's colorful PowerPoint, would pay attention to the important role of unannounced and unexpected visit of Iran's nuclear plants.

A message to the International Community:
Up until this moment, Iran has been able to divert the mind of the whole world from the chemical attack in Syria into its nuclear activity. We should not forget that almost 3 weeks ago, the Two countries of the US and France were decided to launch a military strike on Syria. But at the present, the Syrian conflict and the punishment of Asad's regime have been completely lost in the tactical dust of Iran's nuclear negotiation.

I had anticipated this type of Iran's tactic in my previous short notes. In sum, my suggestion is that don't let the Iranian Regime drag you to a beautiful, but at the same time dead-end alley. Iran wants to buy the time; save Asad's regime; and continue to its nuclear activity in some secret nuclear facility. These are the main goals and tactics of Iran at the present time. 

The economic sanctions don't bother Iran as much as you think; as much as the Iranian Regime pretends. Briefly, according to some officials in Tehran, the Iranian regime collected just 5 million dollars each month from the charity boxes around the country( There are almost 7 million charity boxes in the country). There are more than 10,000 Emamzadeh (Religious tomb of profit Mohammad's descendants) in Iran, which the Iranian people voluntarily donate money to them. All these moneys go in the pocket of the supreme leader. In addition, there are other religious foundations, which provide large amount of income for the Islamic Regime. Moreover, Iran bypasses the sanctions illegally through some of its neighboring countries.  Furthermore, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset organizations are involved in different illegal and unlawful business activities such as money laundering, arms-drug trafficking, etc, at the international level. In short, don't think that your economic sanctions have forced Iran to the table of nuclear negotiation. Iran has started with nuclear negotiation game to save Asad's Regime. 

M. Sirani                   15.10.2013

Friday, October 11, 2013

Legalizing Pedophilia, Another Tragic Event in Iran.

Today, the Guardian Council of the Constitution, Iran's highest ranking legislative entity,  passed a bill, which legally allows parents to marry with their adopted children. This law, as an example, allows a man to marry his adopted daughter, while she is almost 13 years old. This barbaric law is violating the basic rights of the children; this law is legalizing the pedophilia within the Iranian society; it is deteriorating the basic norms, values and moral issues in Iran; it is destructing the structure of families and worsening the conditions of millions of women and children in the entire country from different aspects.

The international community should not ignore this barbaric move of the Iranian Regime. In this respect, all authorities, the United Nations, Amnesty International and other human rights organizations around the world should strongly condemn this barbaric bill and with all their capacities and powers force the Iranian Regime to remove this inhuman, unjust and horrific law from its constitution.

This is an outrageous, disgrace, shameful and tragic event not only for the Iranian people but also for all human beings around the world. We should be united and force the Iranian Regime to remove this scandalous law from its constitution.

M. Sirani                                   11.10.2013

The Nobel Peace Prize of 2013.

 Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) was awarded for the Nobel Peace Prize of this year. As an individual, I welcome the nice and relevant choice of the Nobel committee in this respect. This is a great step towards a more peaceful and stable world; a world without weapons of mass destruction.


Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Machiavelli's Statement About The Current Syrian Civil War.

Machiavelli's Statement About The Current Syrian Civil War.

I don't want to apply this statement to all the Syrian opposition. Simply, because I know there are many honest Syrian freedom fighters, who do their best to establish freedom, democracy and secularism in Syria for all the Syrian people. But part of the reason (I emphasize part of the reason) that after two and half years struggle, we have not been able to remove Bashar Assad from the power lies in this part of Machiavelli's statement. There are many other reasons, which are out of the scope of this short note; therefore, I don't explore them. However, according to Machiavelli:

"Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous, and any ruler who relies on them to defend his state will be insecure and in peril; because they are disunited, ambitious, undisciplined, and disloyal; courageous when they are with their friends, cowardly in the presence of the enemy; they have no fear of God and don’t keep their promises. [Although he doesn’t say so, Machiavelli is now talking only about mercenaries. Auxiliary armies will be his topic in the next chapter.] With them as his army, the only way a prince can hold off his own ruin is by holding off any military attack; in peace one is robbed by •them, and in war by •the enemy. Why? Because they have no affection for you, and no reason to go to battle except the small wages you pay them, and those aren’t enough to make them willing to die for you! They’re ready enough to be your soldiers while you aren’t at war with anyone, but when war comes they either desert or run away on the battlefield"
                                                                                                           (Machiavelli, 2010, P. 26)
M. Sirani                       09.10.2013                
Bennet, J. (2010). The Prince. URL<: http://www.earlymoderntexts.com/pdfbits/machpr2.pdf>.
Accessed on: 09.10.2013.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

An Important Consideration With Regard to the Current UN's Chemical Weapons Disarmament in Syria.

I begin my short note with a simple question as follows. Can we trust Asad's regime, Iran and Hezbollah?
If the answer to this question is "yes"; then, we should trust Bashar Asad, when he, for example, claims that his security forces are killing the terrorists; then we should remove all the economic and political sanctions on Iran, because as Iran itself claims its nuclear activity has peaceful nature; then, we should also remove Hezbollah from the list of international terrorist organizations.

I'm pretty sure that most of us don't trust Bashar Asad, or Iran, or Hezbollah. This is a logical statement, based on many reasons, which is out of the scope of this short note. In this respect, we face some other questions with regard to the recent UN's chemical weapons disarmament in Syria. These questions are as follows.

1- Has the Syrian authority handed over the list of its entire chemical weapons and chemical storages to the UN?

2- Does Asad's regime hand over some of its chemical weapons to Hezbollah?

3- Does Asad's regime move some of its chemical weapons to Iran through Iraq or by Iranian airplanes, which are flying between Tehran and Damascus on daily bases?

Undoubtedly, all these possibilities are worrisome.These are the important issues that the UN chemical inspectors cannot control or prevent.  However, in order to avoid or at least decrease these threatening possibilities, the United Nation, first, should establish a ceasefire between Asad's regime and the Syrian opposition. Thereafter, the UN should deploy its peacekeeping force to Syria. This move would be beneficial from different aspects. The UN peacekeepers, for example, would
- Establish and maintain the ceasefire in the country, up until the final decision of the Geneva conference/s.
- Control and observe the process of chemical weapons disarmament or destruction.
- Control that none of these chemical weapons would transfer to Lebanon or Iran, through air or ground borders.
- Confront the terrorist groups and dismantle some radical groups such as the Al-Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra inside Syria.
- Protect the displaced people and the Syrian refugees.

Should this happen, the humanitarian organizations would also be able to provide better help and assistance to those Syrian people in need.

In sum, at this stage, deployment of the UN peacekeeping force to Syria would be beneficial, not only for the Syrian people but also for the neighboring countries from different angles. This move, in addition, would be beneficial in the short and long term for the Western countries, which are spending billions of dollars annually on some issue such as the war on terror.

M. Sirani                            06.10.2013

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Those countries that supplies their energy (Oil-Gas) from Iran, should be aware of the future consequences of their trade.

Against all odds, I mean:

Don't jeopardize the entire security of your economy, just because of a smiley face or beautiful words of Rouhani or a telephone conference between Rouhani and President Obama. Bear in mind that the Islamic Regime is going to enter in a new phase in some respects, somewhere in the future.

M. Sirani                       05.10.2013

Thursday, October 3, 2013

The U.S. Government Shut Down and The Affordable Care Act.

This is a fact that this healthcare program would cover the basic needs & rights of nearly 40 million poor Americans. However, as it appears, the Republicans have shut down the U.S. government, because of this affordable healthcare bill. This event, as a result, has forced 800,000 public employees to stay at home without any incomes. In  other words, by this sabotage, the republicans are jeopardizing the lives of 40 million poor Americans, who were not able to cover their medical cares and nearly 800,000 employees, who have forced to stay at home without any income and their families.

This is the time that American people should stand for their basic rights and needs. In doing so, those 40 million poor Americans without any health insurance and those 800,000 public employees, which have been forced to stay at home without any income, along with other Americans should arrange a huge and peaceful march against this inhuman and unjust act of the republicans in the entire country. Through this march, American people would be able to put an extra pressure on those republicans, who try to slow down the process of the development in the US by this type of unjust sabotage. Through this move, American people would teach an unforgettable lesson to those republicans, who do not have any respect for the basic rights and needs of their fellow citizens. This is one of those historical moments that once again, Martin Luther King's great March should be repeated by Americans for Americans.    

M. Sirani                    04.10.2013

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Uncertainty in the Foreign Policy and Current Government Shut Down.

Uncertainty in the choice of appropriate foreign policy at the right time along with the current U.S. government shut down will make Asad's regime and Iran more demanding. The future conferences with regard to the Syrian civil war and Iran's nuclear negotiation will prove my short note; if the situation would continue in the future the same as it is right now. As I warned in my previous short notes, the international community is on the slope of losing the battle in Syria to the Iranian regime. However, the two issues mentioned above would accelerate the speed of this downfall enormously.

M. Sirani                  1.10.2013

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Unfair, Unjust and Illogical Accusation.

In response to my latest article titled "Rouhani's Statement about the Holocaust and Christiane Amanpour's big misinterpretation", someone has left a comment for me and accused me of being a Zionist apologist. In response to this unfair, unjust and illogical accusation, I have to bring the attention of the readers to some important issues as follows.

Firstly, If I was a Zionist or Zionist apologist, I would have said it loudly, clearly, openly and bravely; because I'm not scared of neither you nor anyone else nor the God in the world, particularly when it comes to an important issue such as expressing my ideas and opinions.

Secondly, I'm an independent and neutral analyst, which moral and ethical values have enormous and unlimited considerations for me. I analyze different issues particularly with regard to the Islamic Regime based on my academic knowledge and some decades political activity background. In this respect, I don't blend my personal preferences such as my nationality, emotion, religion (Although, I'm an atheist) or something else in my analyses. If I let some of my personal preferences would influence my analysis, the result of my research would certainly lose its neutrality, authenticity and trustworthiness. This is something that I as an analyst would always do my best to totally avoid it. This is my motto. For example, when I see a group of people are suffering; my duty, my moral consideration and my responsibility as an ordinary human being force me to help them as much as I can; no matter those people are atheists, Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, etc; no matter those people are Asians, Africans, Europeans, Americans or some people from the Middle East. In any of these issues, I do my best to stand in the right side of the history and fulfill my duty and moral considerations. As such, I don't care if anyone disagrees or dislikes my opinion or my behavior. Because misassumption or misunderstanding of others are not my businesses. Such people should understand that before some issues such as nationality, race, religion  and beliefs: We are human beings and we should have the same and equal rights and duties.              

Thirdly, I publish small part of my assumption about different events in this simple weblog. I defend my assumptions and analyses with full authority and responsibility to the death; unless someone would show me with some logical and scientific arguments; of course in a polite manner and without any unjust and unfair accusation that I'm wrong or my assumption is irrelevant.

Fourthly, the readers of this simple weblog should understand that I am an analyst. You as the readers might agree or disagree with my opinion; you are free to ignore, or criticize my arguments in a logical and scientific manner as much as you want. In this respect, I really appreciate your comment as well as your criticism. But, please bear in mind that I am not a Hollywood movie director or a movie star, who try to use every trick in order to appease large numbers of people.     

Fifthly, the readers should understand that my intention about the article " Rouhani's statement about the Holocaust and Christian Amanpour's big misinterpretation" was not an analysis about the domestic or foreign policy of Israel. Instead, in this article, I tried to disclose Iran's new tactic; the way that Iran tries to once again deceive the whole world; the method, which Iran tries to use it in order to preserve Asad's regime and simultaneously continues with its nuclear activity secretly, the same as Iran has done it in 2003. Moreover, in this article, I tried to illustrate how some people in the media intentionally or unintentionally would help Iran in this matter. This is something that I have anticipated in my previous short notes such as: 1- Are you expecting that Khamenei's long term special representative solve your problem with Iran? and 2- Mr. Jack Straw should watch this video clip.

Sixthly and finally, before throwing any unjust and unfair accusation to someone like me, please hire a neutral professional translator and an reliable Iran analyst and let these experts (not an Iranian regime's apologist) translate and analyze Rouhani's statement for you.

In the final part I remind you to an important point. I fully aware that a nuclear weapon would give us (as Iranians) an extraordinary power not only in the critical and strategic region of the Middle East, but also in the international arena. This advantage would be beneficial for us particularly after the collapse of the Islamic regime. In this respect, I can close my eyes to Iran's nuclear activity in my analyses; I can ignore this part of Iranian regime's activity by writing about some another unimportant issues. But from the bottom of my heart, I don't like to see one day, you will wake up from sleep because of the vibrations of Iran's nuclear bomb test. Because I know that the current Iranian regime is not a normal and reliable political system, which could be trusted in this particular and important issue. Because I know a nuclear weapon in the hand of current political system in Iran is equivalent to total destruction of not only the lives of Iranian people but also millions of people around the world. Thus, be careful about the new moves of the Iranian regime.     

M. Sirani                      29.09.2013

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Rouhani's Statement about The Holocaust and Christiane Amanpour's Unblievable Misinterpretation.

I had a busy schedule in the last couple of days; otherwise I would have written this short note earlier. However, today I had the opportunity to double check Rouhani's statement about the Holocaust. In this respect, I wrote down Rouhani's statement word by word in Persian and couple of times check it with its English translation published by CNN. There is a total misinterpretation in CNN's translation in this important remarks.

Whether Christiane Amanpour has intentionally misinterpreted Rouhani's statement about the Holocaust; whether Christiane Amanpour does not have proper knowledge about Persian language are not my goal in this short note. These are some issues, which should be judged by either CNN broadcasting company or CNN's viewers. However, here below is the exact translation of Rouhani's statement about the Holocaust, word by word, which has been published in Fars News website an Iranian official news agency. It should be mentioned that usually I don't trust Iran's news agencies and their analyses. But in this particular matter, as i couple of times checked, the Fars News has exactly and precisely translated Rouhani's statement word by word, as he said during this interview.

Rouhani's statement in exact English translation about the Holocaust is as follows.
Rouhani's: "I have said before that I am not a historian and historians should specify, state and explain the aspects of historical events, but generally we fully condemn any kind of crime committed against humanity throughout the history, including the crime committed by the Nazis both against the Jews and non-Jews, the same way that if today any crime is committed against any nation or any religion or any people or any belief, we condemn that crime and genocide. Therefore, what the Nazis did is condemned, (but) the aspects that you talk about, clarification of these aspects is a duty of the historians and researchers, I am not a history scholar."     (Farsnews, 2013)
There are some important points in Rouhani's statement noted above. Firstly, Rouhani does not use the term "Holocaust" in his statement. He uses some words such as crime against humanity, genocide, and crimes, which have been committed by the Nazis, but he never uses the term "Holocaust" in his remarks.

Secondly, the most important issue with regard to the Second World War is the scale and scope of the crimes that the Nazis have committed. We should bear in mind that nearly 20 million people were killed during the Second World War. Most of these people were killed in the battle during those horrific years. But the most important issue is that among those large scale victims, just 6 million innocent Jews were mass murdered by the Nazis during the Second World War. The term "Holocaust" defines this barbaric and inhuman act of the Nazis against a particular group of people; it describes the mass murder and genocide of 6 million innocent Jews; it refers to large scale destruction of Jews people by the Nazis during the Second World War. In this respect, no matter who we are or what type of nationality we have; not matter we are atheist, Muslim, Jew, Buddhist or Christian; not matter, we are agree or disagree with the domestic or foreign policy of Israel; no matter we are historian, researcher or not; we cannot deny the Holocaust as a horrific historical event. The Holocaust is a devastating historical event, which happened during the Second World War. Thus, we, as neutral human beings should strongly condemn all the crime that the Nazis committed  against Jews and other people around the world, including the Holocaust itself. The tricky point is here that Rouhani the same as Ahmadinejad stands in the state of denial about this event and totally ignores this historical fact by saying that some Jews and non-Jews were killed by the Nazis, but this is the responsibility of historians and researchers to evaluate the scope and dimension of these crimes.

At this juncture, I would like to ask Christiane Amanpour a simple question as follows. Ahmadinejad also claimed that we know some Jews were killed during the Second World War. But let us perform a research to find out how many Jews were killed, as Ahmadinejad stated. Let us perform a research to find out that the story of murdering of 6 million Jews during the Second World War is a true or a false story, as Ahmadinejad claimed. In this respect, what is the difference between Ahmadinejad's statement and Rouhani's recent remarks about the Holocaust?

As noted above, in fact, Rouhani repeats exactly Ahmadinejad's argument about the Holocaust but with another words. Ahmadinejad denied the Holocaust with some other words; Rouhani also denies the Holocaust by saying "what the Nazis did is condemned, (but) the aspects that you talk about, clarification of these aspects is a duty of the historians and researchers, I am not a history scholar". 

In the final part of this short note, some questions are still unanswered. These are the questions that the readers of this short note should deeply think about them and find reasonable and logical answers to them.

Why Christiane Amanpour misinterprets Rouhani's remarks in this matter? Why Christiane Amanpour tries to fabricate a false and fake picture from Rouhani by this unbelievable misinterpretation? What type of goal is Christiane Amanpour pursuing by this big misinterpretation?

*** Notification: The Islamic Regime has unfiltered CNN in Iran since today. I don't know how long this unfiltering will continue, but this event shows that there is some correlation between misinterpretation of Rouhani's statement about the Holocaust and CNN's unfiltering in Iran. Shall we call that a secret deal? or a present in response to Rouhani's statement misinterpretation by CNN? 

M. Sirani                                   28.09.2013


Rouhani's English remarks ("013). URL<: http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13920703001316>. Accessed on: 28.09.2013


So far, Iran is The Real Winner in Both The Syrian Conflict and Nuclear Negotiation.

In the recent General Assembly of the United Nations, Iran was/is the real winner with regard to the two concepts of 1- the Syrian conflict and 2- Iran's nuclear activity. This simple statement will be proven in the future.

In terms of the current civil war in Syria:            

Iran = 1                              The International Community = 0

In terms of the Nuclear Activity:

Iran = 1                               The International Community = 0

M. Sirani                             28.09.2013

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Are You Expecting that Khamenei's Long Term Special Representative Solve Your Problem With Iran?

Some claim that Rouhani couldn't hand shake President Obama because of the opinion of the hard

liners in Iran. Some others claim that Rouhani is in the beginning of a positive road and he needs time

to deal with hard liners in Tehran. In response to these claims, I have to pose some questions

including: Do you know that before the presidency position, Rouhani was special representative of

the Supreme Leader Khamenei within Supreme National Security Council for many years? Do you

know (Since 1997 up until this moment as far as I know)  Hassan Rouhani was and still is a member

of the Expediency Discernment Council? Do you know that the Supreme Leader Khamenei

personally appoints all the members of the Expediency Council among his close and trustworthy


Some other analysts  simply compare Ahmadinejad with Rouhani and claim that Rouhani is better

than Ahmadinejad. Such a comparison simplifies the analysis about the Islamic Regime and its

moves. Moreover, this type of methodology is totally wrong, based on many reasons. This is the fact

that both Ahmadinejad and Rouhani were and are the puppets of the Islamic Regime system.

However, there are some differences between these two persons, which should be mentioned.

Ahmadinejad did not have any academic knowledge about the International  Law or International

Relations. Therefore, he couldn't perform a logical or I might say a normal speech during an event at

the international level for example. But, Rouhani and Zarif have this type of background; they have

enough skill to address an issue in such international events. Moreover, we should bear in mind

that before presidency position, Ahmadinejad did not have any high ranking official position or a

close relationship with the Supreme Leader within the structure of the Islamic Regime in comparison

with Rouhani and Zarif. Furthermore, the Supreme Leader Khamenei did not appoint Ahmadinejad

for a high profile position within the Islamic Regime before his presidency. But as I noted above,

Hassan Rouhani has been appointed by the Supreme Leader for different high ranking positions in

Iran. In fact, in many occasion, Hassan Rouhani has been Khamenei's special representative within an

important entity in Iran.

Considering these brief information, still you are expecting that Rouhani change the course of the Islamic Regime in a positive manner with regard to the current tension in Syria, Iran's nuclear activity or Iran's expansionist behavior abroad? Rouhani has been and still is a special and trustworthy representative of Khamenei in the different important entities within the Islamic Regime and you are hoping that he performs a positive change in the regime? 

My condolences to those shallow minded scholars, analysts and policy-makers, who believe that Rouhani will change the course of the Islamic Regime.

M. Sirani                          24.09.2013

Monday, September 23, 2013

Khatami's Article in the Guardian is Another Iran's Trick (We should not repeat the Munich Agreement).

Iran is desperately trying to save Syria. In doing so, Iran has developed a new plan. As I mentioned in my previous short notes, this plan is Iran's nuclear activity. In this respect, Iran tries to make a superficial deal with the West with regard to its nuclear activity. as such, Iran might agree to decrease the scope of its nuclear activity to some extent. Consequently, the West would lift some of the sanctions, while behind the scene, Iran would continue to its nuclear development in another secret plant. In this respect, Iran would be able to completely divert the attention of the international community from Syria into its nuclear negotiation for a while. Khatami's article published in the Guardian and other statements of Iran's policy-makers should be understood in this direction. From different angles, with various methods, Iran's policy-makers including Khatami Iran's former president try to create an unrealistic image that Rouhani is the only golden opportunity for the West and the West should use it; otherwise, not only the Middle East but also the whole world will collapse. In this respect, Iran tries to push the West to accept a deal through an invisible and indirect coercive policy tool.

The international community should not fall in Iran's trap. I repeat my previous argument; this is a historical moment to create a buffer zone in Syria;to dismantle Hezbollah; to paralyze the Islamic Regime of Iran abroad. If we don't use this opportunity, without any doubt, Iran would attain the nuclear weapon somewhere in the close future. Should this happen, no one, no international authority, no super power would be able to control Iran's behavior at the local, regional and international levels. We should not repeat the Munich Agreement twice.

M. Sirani                           24.09.2013   

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Mr. Jack Straw Should Watch This Video Clip.

In an interview, Mr. Jack Straw the former British Foreign Secretary gives credit to Iran's current president and claims that Hassan Rouhani is a moderate politician. Because Rouhani stopped Iran's nuclear activity in 2003 by a simple telephone call to Tehran, as Mr. Jack Straw states. There is, however, a video clip of Rouhani on YouTube, which completely refutes Jack Straw's statement in this matter. In this video clip, Rouhani explains, how Iran's nuclear activity have had enormous positive developments in 2003 and 2004. During this interview, Rouhani clearly explains step by step how Iran developed Yellowcake, Heavy-water reactors; Increased the numbers of centrifuges in its nuclear plans through those years (Iranian calendar 83-84), while Mr. Jack Straw was optimistically thinking that Iran has stopped its nuclear activity.

I hope some neutral person translates this video clip for Mr. Jack Straw.


M. Sirani                              21.09.2013

Friday, September 20, 2013

You Are Falling in the Trap of Iran and Losing the Battle in Syria. Are You Aware of That or not Yet?

This is the most shocking event in my entire life, when i see how the Iranian Regime can deceive a scholar like Fareed Zakaria, an journalist like Christiane Amanpour and a politician like Jack Straw with just some simple moves and words.  We know,  Russia has been assisting Asad's regime from different angles, but the international community is losing the battle in Syria, due to Iran's tactics and maneuvers. These types of tactics and moves are not Russian. If we review the behavior of Iran in the past 34 years, we see that the Islamic Regime has used these types of maneuvers in different occasions, whether in the domestic or international arena. As such, the Islamic regime has managed to survive for so long.

In order to paralyze the Islamic Regime and Hezbollah, we should create a buffer zone in Syria. We should cut the free highway of Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon in Syria. If we manage to do that, we can gradually dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon. Otherwise, we cannot impose anything at all to this clero-totalitarian regime in a fundamental and constructive manner (I emphasize in a fundamental and constructive manner).  

The map below is a clear illustration about Iran's activities and plan in the Middle East and part of Africa.

 Figure 1: Iran’s activities in the Middle East (Sirani, 2012).
Red Arrows: Iran’s offensive activities in the Middle East.

Green Arrows: Saudi Arabia’s activities against Iran.

Black Lines:  Iran’s final plan for the Middle East.

As illustrated above, Iran has successfully occupied a free highway from its territory towards the borders of Israel through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. In the southern part of the map, Iran has been increasing its influence in Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan. The emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt was a pleasant event for Iran, which later was shattered by the move of the Egyptian army. In sum, this is the plan of Iran and Qasem Soleimani for this part of the Middle East. I don't want to exaggerate, but as I follow the news, I have come up with the idea that the international community need a comprehensive lecture about some issues such as: the structure of power within the Islamic Regime, Iran's plan for the Middle East and North Africa and Iran's tactics and maneuvers. I'm pretty sure about this statement based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                                             20.09.2013