Monday, March 31, 2014

A Brief Response To Those Ultra - Realist Thinkers in the West Amid Current Dispute in Ukraine.

As an Iranian in exile, I'm not really a fan of President Putin or Russia; honestly mostly due to the close relationship that Russia has with the Iranian Regime. But as i follow the news and articles about current dispute in Ukraine, i see that a large number of realist thinkers in the West are trying to smash Russia and president Putin with some shallow and flaw analyses, which most of them do not have any logical academic foundation at all. 

Every body, including you the Western Realist thinkers have the right to criticize Russia and president Putin in your analyses from different academic points of view; but creating a monster from president Putin in your writings or comparing him with Hitler or a bored child at class, or Russia wants to swallow Finalnd, etc are not academic analyses; these are just a bunch of jargon mixed with some academic terms and nothing more. These so-called "experts" have no idea that such jargon analyses that they produced, would indirectly promote the position of Russia and president Putin among many people around the world.   

The note below is a brief response to these types of experts, who their articles have broadly and non-stoply occupied the international media.  

Those Realist thinkers in the West should fundamentally think about three important issues, while they are analyzing different international event or conflict. 

1- The era of bipolar world is over and the chance that once again we will enter a new bipolar world somewhere in the future, is very low, or i might say is almost impossible, based on many reasons. Unless a nuclear war would occur. In this respect, yes, we might once again experience a bipolar world; a world, which would be divided between two survived powerful states; of course, if any state would survive following a nuclear war. 

2- At the present, we are experiencing a multi polar world. It simply means neither the USA, nor Russia, nor China nor any other state is not the only boss of the world, based on many reasons.

3- The rise of new powers simply means decreasing the power of some other super powers. In other words, we are at the transformation phase of rise and fall of empires. This process takes time, but it has begun and it is continuing.

Based on all mentioned above,thus, don't follow the path of Zbigniew Brzeziński in your analyses. Because his ideas are not compatible with current international events. If you want to be a realist, at least follow the path of some one like Stephan Walt, or current Henry Kissinger or John Mearsheimer. Maybe we are not 100% agree with these scholars, but at least they are analyzing the international events academically from another points of view.

M. Sirani                                  31.03.2014 

A Former Hostage Taker As Iran's New Amabassador for the United Nation.

The Iranian Regime has appointed Hamid Aboutalebi as its next United Nation ambassador. As the Iranian media declare, Hassan Rouhani has appointed him as the new Permanent Representative of Iran to the United Nation. Hamid Aboutalebi has previously worked as Iran's ambassador in Belgium, Italy and Australia. In addition to these high ranking positions, Hamid Aboutalebi has a controversial historical background, the same as most of the politicians in Iran. The controversial historical part is that Hamid Aboutalebi was a member of the radical student group that attacked the United State embassy at Tehran in 1979 and took hostage 52 American diplomats for 444 days. This event is neither an accidental nor unintentional act of the Islamic Regime. The Iranian Regime has a clear message in this regard. Choosing a former hostage taker like Aboutalebi for such a position in the United Nation headquarter, which is located in the U.S. territory, shows that Iran would try to crush and humiliate the United State in every direction and dimension by all means and all leverages.

Do most of the policy makers in the West see how smartly the Iranian Regime play the chess game in the international arena? Do these experts have enough knowledge about the Iranian Regime and its special characteristics? My answer to these two questions is negative.

M. Sirani                            31.03.2014

Sunday, March 30, 2014

A Possible Idea About Providing Free Internet Connectivity At Global Level.

I have an idea, which might provide free Internet connection at global level. This method might be cheaper accessible and easier than some other proposals such as sending balloon in the orbit or using solar drone. With using this method we might be able to provide access to Internet for all the people around the world including those, who are living under the totalitarian Regimes such as Iran and North Korea.

Note: I'm not expert in technical issues of this idea. But if providing access to Internet with balloon or solar drone is possible; I'm pretty sure that my idea can work. This plan would revolutionise the Internet and communication systems.  I think with this idea we might be able to crush the wall of censorship around the world beyond the will of all totalitarian regimes.

M. Sirani                    30.03.2014  

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Don't Compare Ukraine With Greece With Regard to the IMF Bail-Out; A First Year University Student Sould Know That.

It's really shocking, when i see or hear someone compares current situation in Ukraine with Greece and claims that the IMF can use Greece example and gain success in Ukraine as well. Such a shallow comparison is a clear example of mirror-imaging; it is totally wrong. The only similarity between these two countries is that both were/ are on the verge of bankruptcy and nothing else. Do these two countries have the same political structure? Do these two countries have the same historical background? Do these countries have the same geographical position in the international arena? Do these countries have the same socio-economic characteristics? Do these two countries have the same homogeneous population? Do these two countries have the same geopolitical position in the international arena? Do these two countries have the same relationship with one or two or more superpowers at the regional and global level? and hundreds more similar questions.

I'm wondering, those, who claim such a unrealistic claim have any academic background; where these so-called "experts" have graduated; based on what type of qualification they have occupied such an important job, etc. Because, a first year student in some subject such as Political Science, International Development or International Relations should understand that such a comparison is completely wrong.  

M. Sirani                                  29.03.2014 

IMF And Current Situation in Ukraine.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to bail-out Ukraine with an $18bn dollars loan. This loan might save Ukraine from a sovereign default at the present time. But the final result might not be what we are expecting based on many reasons as briefly follows:

1- At the present, Ukraine is experiencing a broad internal and external tension.

2- The country is on the unknown phase of a huge transformation with regard to joining the EU and how far the country would join the European Union.

3- The whole political system in Ukraine is weak, unstable, chaotic and corrupt.

4- The powerful presence of ultra nationalist and chauvinist groups within current interim government is a serious threat for both the Ukrainian people and the EU.

5- Such a ultra nationalist and chauvinist interim government would not respect the equal rights and opportunity for other ethnic groups, for example Russians, inside Ukraine. Such a behavior would finally cause a broad internal conflict between different ethnic groups inside Ukraine or might possibly drag the country toward a civil war. Such an event would facilitate an opportunity for Russia or i might say would force Russia to intervene in Ukraine domestic affairs in order to save the Russian citizens, who live in this country.  

6- There are serious internal conflicts and power struggles between the current members of the interim government themselves and different elite groups that want to occupy the power in Ukraine. Whom can the West trust? Tymoshenko, Klitschko or someone from current ultra nationalist and chauvinist interim government? Which one and who has a good reputation among the majority of Ukrainian people?  

7- The IMF would enter in a country like Ukraine with such negative characteristics and would try to impose its so-called "well- genius austerity measures".    

Based on brief explanation noted above, should we be a genius person like Einstein to predict what would happen in Ukraine in the near future? Does this loan at the present time would help Ukraine with such negative characteristics to stand up on its own feet somewhere in the future?  

As i follow the news about Ukraine and consider this dispute from different angles, it seems to me that the West (the USA, EU and IMF) would like to indirectly create more instability in Ukraine and moreover, invite Russia to a deeper conflictual game. In this respect, i might say whether the West like it or not, Russia would be involved in Ukraine based on two main reasons as follows. Firstly, all issues mentioned above indicate the fact that Ukraine would face a deeper turmoil and internal conflict in the upcoming weeks and months. Secondly, nearly ten millions Russians live in Ukraine and Russia cannot simply ignore them in an unstable and chaotic Ukraine.

In sum, the IMF and its western shareholders do not lose anything at all with this loan. They will take back every penny of this loan including its interests no matter when, how and who governs Ukraine. But these are the working and middle class Ukrainian people, who pay an expensive price for their inappropriate move at this historical critical moment.      

M. Sirani                         29.03.2014

Friday, March 28, 2014

Promotion of Russia Among Many Countries Around the World.

I'm not defending Russia and i am not a fan of President Putin, partly due to the close relationship between Moscow and Tehran. But when i consider different events, which have been occurred in the last couple of years in the Middle East, i can predict that, in addition to Iran and Syria, some other countries in the region will be allied to Russia in the future. In this respect, Egypt might be the first one.

M. Sirani                       28.03.2014

Olekander Muzychko, Ukrainian Far Right Leader Shot Dead By Police (Or A Dirty Covert Operation).

Following his death, apparently we should forget, who or which organization were behind the killing of 88 innocent people with sniper shots during the recent uprising in Ukraine. With this unexpectedly death or we might say dirty covert trick, lots of evidences would be vanished. As such, the case of death of 88 innocent people would be closed in the near future. Such an event might bring Lady Ashton, Estonian Foreign Minister and the current Ukrainian Interim Government some relief.

In short, the West is gambling on totally wrong horse, in a wrong place, at a wrong time amid current tension in Ukraine. The USA does not lose anything at all in this game; instead it will gain a lot from this dispute in different angles. But, I'm wondering how, based on what reason the EU particularly the two countries of Germany and France have decided to participate in such a wrong game.

Do the policy makers in Germany and France consider some issues such as: we are experiencing an economic downturn at the present; that the EU should be prepared to economically compete with other economic powers in the world, for example China specially in the next couple of years; that an unnecessary conflict with Russia is costly at the present; that an increase in military and defense budget would be a huge unnecessary burden on the shoulder of the EU at the present; that such a conflictual environment forces the EU to be dependent on other superpower in terms of maintaining its security; that an increase in military budget is in contradiction with austerity measures, etc. Do these policy makers in the EU think about these issues? or some of them are lobbying for multinational military and energy corporations; thus they don't care.

M. Sirani                         28.03.2014

Thursday, March 27, 2014

UN General Assembly Declares Crimea Secession Illegal.

Today, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution, which indicates that Crimea secession is an internationally illegal and invalid act. The interesting thing is that among 193- nation assembly, 100 members voted in the favor of resolution and 11 against, 58 abstentions and moreover, a  number of countries did not participate in the vote at all. In other words, almost half of the UN General Assembly members has directly or indirectly voted in the favor of Russia against the passed resolution. This is an important sign, which the USA and EU should carefully pay attention to it. This event shows that the recent wrong policy and interventionist reaction of the Western countries amid Ukraine dispute has improved and promoted the reputation of Russia among many countries. This trend will increase and grow more than what we observe at the present time.   

M. Sirani                                   27.03.2014

The Female Caricature of Ahmadinejad Will Run for Presidency in Ukraine.

Yesterday, Naftohaz Ukrainy Company announced that it will raise gas prices for Ukrainian domestic consumers by 50% in the beginning of next month. Today, the female caricature of Ahmadinejad, Julia Tyomoshenko, who wants to wipe out Russia and Russians, announced that she will run for presidency in Ukraine. It should be mentioned that Julia Tymoshenko is the main shareholder of the corporation United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU); an energy company competitor to Naftohaz Ukrainy, which has been involved with huge corruption and embezzlement in many energy contracts during the past couple of years. The combination of all these simple events, however, shows how the IMF can shape and form the Political  Scene in a bankrupt country like Ukraine directly or indirectly and later introduce it as An Orange Revolution, for example. 

Do the Western countries want to promote democratic values in Ukraine by supporting a Corrupt Person like JuliaTymoshenko? My answer to this question is a "giant YES".

M. Sirani                         27.03.2014

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Briefly: The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Might Probably Get New Memebrs in the Near Future.

We are entering the new Cold War era; a new era with different characteristics in various terms. As such, we should expect some changes within different international cooperation organizations around the world. These changes would impact the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as well. In short, we should expect more surprises in the future. This is the direct and indirect result of hegemonic slogan of the West, which says: "Either with us, or against us". Double I (India and Iran) might join the Shanghai Group.  

The membership of Iran would be highly conterversial for the West. hahahaha.The wind blows perfectly in the favor of Iran from different aspects. Based on massive oil and gas resources and its special geopolitical position in the Middle East, the Shanghai group should be blind, if they don't offer Iran the full membership somehwhere in the future. I don't think the policy makers in the West pay attention to this point.

Note: It seems this is the time to say goodbye to Interdependence Liberalism 

M. Sirani                            26.03.2014

Briefly: Instead of Russia, Acquiring Gas From Iran Would Be the Worst Mistake For the EU.

The EU might be disagree with Russia in different terms. But replacing Russia by acquiring gas from Iran would be the worst mistake that the EU would do. Such a plan, would endanger the security of the EU in the long term.
Apparently, Russia is the main target with regard to the current dispute in Ukraine. But, in reality, the USA is pursing two long term main goals in this matter. The USA wants, firstly, to isolate Russia within the EU region. If the USA would be able to do that, it can achieve its second goal, which is:  indirectly slowing down and controlling the economic engine of the EU i.e. Germany as well. Because, in such a circumstance, the EU would be dependent on the USA in terms of both security and energy. As a result, the USA would be able to preserve and maintain its hegemony over the EU region once again the same as the Cold War Era after the Second World War.

M. Sirani                   26.03.2014

A New Scandal For Julia Tymoshenko And Those, Who Are Supporting Her. Watch The Clip.

We have the right to be critical against Russia or president Putin, but we should not close our eyes to the facts. This is something that the policy makers in the USA and some of the European countries do not pay enough attention to it. In some circumstances the authorities in the U.S. and some EU countries hang on to the totally wrong people or group in order to just achieve their goal. As such, they are repeatedly following the policy of "the end justify the means"; a clear Machiavellian behavior.

Supporting Julia Tymoshenko and her allies is an example of such a behavior of the USA and some Eu countries in their foreign policy. Watch the video clip below. In this phone conversation, Julia Tymoshenko loudly and clearly says: we should grab the gun and kill Russians and their leader. The other person asks Julia Tymoshenko: what should we do with 8 million Russians, who live in Ukraine? In response to this question, Julia Tymoshenko answers: we must kill them with nuclear weapon!!!

This simple phone conversation illustrates a lot. It shows that the USA and some EU countries are supporting and promoting ultra nationalist and chauvinist group in Ukraine, just in order to defeat Russia and president Putin. Is that make a sense? Would such a group of people with such a mentality be able to provide peace, stability, freedom and democracy for all the people in Ukraine?

Note: The Islamic Regime wants to wipe out Israel; Julia Tymoshenko wants to wipe out Russia. Common value.

M. Sirani                                  26.03.2014

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Briefly: The Best Moment For All the Revisionist States Around the World.

Escalating Tension Between Superpowers would facilitate the best opportunity for the revisionist states Around the World. North Korea tests middle & long range rockets as much as it wants. An Egyptian court sentences 528 followers of the Muslim Brotherhood to death punishment during just couple of hours time. Sectarian tension between Sunni and Shiite groups escalates in Lebanon in the sense that the Lebanese army forced to deploy its troops in the capital of the country Beirut. Turkey downed a Syrian warplane. Soon, Syria might down an Israeli warplane. Not to mention, Iran as the most naughty and smart student would use the current tension better than any other actors in the international arena, etc.

In sum, the tension between superpowers is like a break time for naughty students (states) in the international class (arena). All naughty students try to use the absence of teacher and do what ever they want to do; while the UN is continuously on its hibernation mode. In short, we will observe more tension and sectarian conflict in different parts of the Middle East and North Africa in the coming days and weeks, if the tension between the West and Russia would continue and escalate with this tempo, we are observing now.

M. Sirani                           25.03.2014

Monday, March 24, 2014

Be Logical, Act Professional; Do Not Militarize Ukraine; Think About the Negative Consequences.

I hope the policy makers in the West are smart enough to do not turn Ukraine into a military zone in order to put an extra pressure on Kremlin.

The West should logically understand that at this stage Russia has enough nonmilitary leverages, if it would decide to destabilize Ukraine and some other former Eastern Block countries. As an example, Russia can easily provoke and mobilize all the Russian citizens in Ukraine and other neighboring countries against their central governments. With such a move, Russia can create a broad wave of instability within different countries in the Eastern part of the EU. Such moves are something that the NATO army cannot control or prevent. Thus, it would be wise for the USA and EU to try to find a peaceful and diplomatic solution for the current dispute in Ukraine.

Any military mobilization by the West or NATO in Ukraine not only would not ease the tension but also escalate the dispute to a critical point. Should this happen, Russia might mobilize some of its nuclear warheads and missiles directly into the Crimean peninsula. As such, the nuclear shadow of Russian missiles would once again cover the sky of the European countries. 

M. Sirani                                  24.03.2014

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Iran’s Aircraft Carrier.

Iran’s Aircraft Carrier

As the media reveal, Iran is building an aircraft carrier. The construction of this warship, which has been first discovered from some satellite photos in the last summer, is taking place at the Gachin shipyard, near Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf. As the photos show and according to some intelligence analysts, Iran's warship has the same shape and style of the American Nimitz-Class aircraft carrier. This issue has raised some speculations among many Western intelligence and military experts.

Regarding this vessel, Cmdr. Jason Salata, a spokesman for the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, claims:
“Based on our observations, this is not a functioning aircraft carrier; it’s a large barge built to look like an aircraft carrier”. Furthermore, Cmdr. Jason Salata states:  
“We’re not sure what Iran hopes to gain by building this. If it is a big propaganda piece, to what end?” (1).

Some other American Navy and intelligence analysts call the vessel a mock ship and claim that the construction of this warship is Iran's new military deception tactic. This group of experts generally believe that following the completion, Iran would move the vessel to the Sea and blow it up, while filming the explosion event, in order to make a propaganda movie against the West, in case that the nuclear negotiations within P3+3 group would fail and reach a dead end. From this type of statement, we can deduce that Iran might use this propaganda movie in order to show to the world that a high technological military vessel such as an American aircraft carrier is vulnerable and defeatable in the Persian Gulf, in case of any military confrontation between Iran and the West.

In response to these statements, a few explanations should be mentioned. Firstly, Iran is not the only country in the world that uses different military tactics including military deception method in order to foster an atmosphere of doubt, fear and hysteria among its enemies. This is obvious that Iran has used such tactics in the past and will undoubtedly use it in the future as well. But Iran's intention behind the construction of such a vessel might not be identified as pure military deception tactic based on different reasons including: the size, shape, time, energy and costs of the construction of such a warship. We should not forget that the construction of a huge vessel such as an aircraft carrier cannot be compared with construction of a drone or a tank or a warplane in different terms.

Secondly, based on my knowledge, Iran does not need such a huge, time consuming and costly project just in order to make a propaganda film to show that an American aircraft carrier is vulnerable and defeatable at the Persian Gulf. One might wonder why? This is a Christal clear point that Iranian Navy would not be able to compete with the American highly technological and equipped Navy. But we should not forget that Iran's missile and rocket industries have had huge developments in the last couple of years in terms of power, range and precision. I believe at the present time, Iran is easily capable to target any object at the Persian Gulf with its surface-to-surface long and middle range rockets and missiles from its territory.

In this respect, a high technological military defense system such as the American Iron Dom system might not be able to respond and dismantle such an attack in an appropriate way. The recent wave of rocket attacks, which were fired from Gaza to Israel, confirms my statement to some extent. The Israeli Iron Dom defense system could not detect and dismantle all the rockets and as a result some of the rockets reached the targets in the Israeli territory. Such an event would / might occur for an American aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf as well; of course, in case of a military confrontation with Iran. Thus, it would be wise to avoid "The Mirror Imaging" perception in this matter. At this juncture an important and additional issue should be mentioned. That is Iran's intention behind such rocket attacks on Israel. In fact, Iran is trying to test the weakness and strength points of the Iron Dom defense system through such a sudden rocket attack on Israel.  

Thirdly, some experts claim that Iran wants to blow up the so-called Nimitz maket, while filming the explosion event, in order to make a propaganda movie. By this, Iran might tell the world that it has dismantled the American aircraft carrier Nimitz. This is not a realistic and good scenario based on many reasons. For example, What would Iran do, when the vessel Nimitz take a position in the Persian Gulf or in the international water? What would Iran do, when the international media show a 5 minutes live clip about Nimitz? Such an event would be a huge scandal for Iran.

Fourthly, as it appears some of the western intelligence and military experts do not take Iran seriously not only in this matter but also in other arenas. As it noted above, for example, Cmdr. Jason Salata claims that the vessel is not functioning at the present time or some other experts call the vessel a mock ship. As these statements illustrate, it seems most of the Western analysts underestimate Iran's ability and capability. This type of perception about the Iranian Regime is totally wrong. For example, Cmdr. Salata claims that the vessel does / might not function at the present time. That’s true; but that does not mean that the vessel will not function in the future too. There are different examples, which show that Iran has surprised the international community in various terms in different occasions through the last 35 years. So might be the case of current war ship.

As an example, i refer to one of Ayatollah Khomeini's statements, when he in the beginning of Iran and Iraq war said: “The road to Qods (Jerusalem) passes through Karbala". 
What was our reaction in 1988, when Iran signed the peace agreement with Iraq after eight years war? As Ayatollah Khomeini himself said, we claimed that Khomeini drank the poison and Iran lost the war. What is Iran's current position in Iraq? Iran has conquered Iraq in the sense that the USA and its allies forced to leave the country. In addition to Iraq, Iran has expanded and strengthened its influence in Syria and Lebanon as well. To put it simply, through all these years, Iran has precisely followed Khomeini's statement. Another example is the case of Iran's nuclear activity and Iran's developments in this matter. Where did stand Iran 20 years ago with regard to uranium enrichment? Where does Iran stand now? Did we think that one day Iran  might be able to build a nuclear facility such as Fordo plant almost 90 meters below the surface?

All these examples indicate that we should not underestimate Iran's ability and capability in any direction including the current warship or the so-called "the mock ship". Otherwise, we might be surprised once again by the Iranian Regime. In sum, i think Iran might have a serious and long term plan for this war ship; something, which is directly related to its nuclear activity. Iran might try to use this issue in order to be able to continue with its uranium enrichment program at a level that can be used for a nuclear aircraft carrier. Such an event would empower Iran's military capability and in addition would facilitate an undercover opportunity for Iran to pursue its main goal; obtaining nuclear weapon.

M. Sirani                                22.03.2014




Friday, March 21, 2014

Signing the Association Agreement with the Interim Government in Ukraine is equivalent to the beginning the New Cold War Era.

Following this hasty decision, the USA and EU should be prepared for Russian harder reaction and retaliation in different directions. Among these, the lack of Russian proper cooperation in NATO exit plan from Afghanistan, the Syrian civil war, Iran's nuclear negotiation could be mentioned. In addition, we might observe more domestic tension within Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian ethnic groups. If the current dispute in Ukraine continues the same as it is now, Russia might unilaterally withdraw from the New START treaty as well.

In sum, we are gradually entering a New Cold War Era. I repeat my previous words once again in this matter. The New Cold War era would be more devastating for the international community particularly for the EU, much more than the previous one, based on many reasons as follows.

1- Putin is neither Yeltsin nor Gorbachev nor Medvedev.

2- The USA and EU had promised lots of things to Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. As Jeffrey Sachs correctly states, the West did not keep its promises. This, simply, means that Russia would not trust the USA and EU anymore. Such a mistrust and suspicion about the West would remain and grow in Kremlin even after the presidency of Vladimir Putin.

3- Contemporary Russia cannot be compared with Russia after the Second World War or during the Cold War Era or even Russia in 1990's in different terms.

4- During the Cold War Era, the then Soviet Union has had massive and heavy responsibilities in different terms for many countries around the World. Contemporary Russia does not have such burdens.

5- The atmosphere of the international community has changed in different terms in comparison with the Cold War Era. The West might be able to put a pressure on Russia at the present time; but this is Russia that would win this struggle in the long term.
6- Such a harsh reaction of the West against Russia would undoubtedly promote and elevate the position of Russia among many third world countries around the glob including Russia's close allies. This promotion could be applied for President Putin himself among the Russian people as well. 

7- The upcoming New Cold War Era would impose massive unnecessary costs to the EU in terms of security concern. Such an event would not be so easy and pleasant for the EU, while the whole world including the EU itself is experiencing a global economic downturn.

 8- The Western media have begun with new propaganda by saying that Russian economy is in a bad shape. I'm wondering: are the Western countries in a good shape when it comes to the economic growth? Do some countries such as Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Island and even the USA itself have good economic shape?  

9- One more issue to mention is the type of economic system that Russia currently has. Russian model of economy is not a productive type of capitalism like Germany for example. Russia obtains most of its revenue from its oil and gas exports. These are the products that there is always demand for them even at a global economic downturn that we are experiencing now. From this, we can deduce that in such a global economic downturn, imposing economic sanction, does not put too much pressure on Russia as the Western media exaggerate. The West might be able to use all its leverages and for example, some Credit rating agencies have downgraded Russia's credit at the global market now. But this issue is temporarily and would not be so harmful for Russia. Because the USA and EU would experience a huge shock in the beginning of 2015, when the Chines Yuan will enter the International market. Following such a event, Russia would be relieved.

10- The most important issue is the dependency of the EU on Russian oil, gas, Uranium and coal.  How would the EU be able to deal with this issue, if the tension between Russia and the West escalates and reaches a critical point? Would the EU be able to import its necessary oil and gas for some other countries? In this respect, some countries in North Africa such as Algeria and Libya are two potential options. Leaving aside the price and costs, Algeria alone cannot provide enough oil and gas for the EU. The situation in Libya is also worse due to the wrong policy of the West by removing Qaddafi form the power. Libya is currently drowned in a devastating civil war among different war lords and the total amount of extracted oil in this country has decreased from nearly 2.5 million bbl a day during Qaddafi regime to nearly 400,000 bbl a day at the present time. Would the EU be able to use coal instead of its necessary oil and gas? In this respect, the UK is a good option, but the EU is then facing the pollution  problem. Would the EU be able to import its necessary oil, gas and coal from the USA? Leaving aside the price and costs, such a option at the present time is also impossible.

 11- In addition to all mentioned above, we should not forget that harsh reaction against Russia would provoke and consequently would facilitate an opportunity for all the Russian citizens, who live within the EU, to apply for self-determination and autonomy. Such an event would destabilize many countries in the region.

These are just a few samples, but I'm pretty sure that the negative consequences would  be much more than i have noted above. Do the policy makers in the EU think about such negative consequences with regard to the current tension in Ukraine? I don't think so. If the politicians in the EU would perform a simple "Cost and Benefit Analysis" (mainly In two economic and security directions) with regard to the current tension in Ukraine, they would understand that the harsh reaction in this matter would be more harmful for them rather than Russia particularly in the long term. But such a tension would be beneficial for the USA from different angles in both short and long term.

M. Sirani                              21.03.2014

Thursday, March 20, 2014

The Clock is Ticking, But There is Still a Diplomatic and Peaceful Solution for the Current Tension in Ukraine.

There is still a diplomatic and peaceful plan for current tension in Ukraine. The plan would not return back Crimea to Ukraine, but it would minimize the futuristic expansionist behavior of Russia in the region. The plan would equally satisfy the EU, Ukraine, Russia and the Central Asian countries in different terms, mainly in two economic and security arenas. Performing and implementing this plan would create and maintain peace, stability and security for all the countries within the EU and Central Asia including Russia as well for many years to come; of course, if the all actors would forget the historical hatred and greed in their policies. 

Note: For curious people and those, who doubt about my statement:  I suggest you to read my previous note titled:

"A plan that might save the world from an additional disaster".  

It should be mentioned that i developed this plan exactly following the latest chemical attack in Syria in August 2013. I uploaded my proposal couple of days earlier than President Putin's proposal.

 M. Sirani                           20.03.2014 

Why the NSA Did Not Perform Its Task Properly With Regard to the Flight MH370? lol

I Hope The Two Objects Identified By Australian Authority, Would Not Be Two Huge Icebergs.

Does it make any sense that someone or a group of perpetrators hijack the flight MH370; continue to fly with it for couple of hours (nearly 7.5 hours); head it toward the South Pole and finally explode it in such a remote area?
Isn't such a scenario a little bit strange?

M. Sirani                            20.03.2014 

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Russia Wanted and Still Wants Ukraine As a Buffer Zone; Don't You Get This Simple Fact?

Since couple of years ago, (at least i can say) Russia has tried to use Ukraine as a buffer zone between itself and the EU. In other words, Russia has not had any intention to invade Ukraine or annex part of this country. The case of Crimea is something completely different. What we have observed recently in the Crimean peninsula was a sharp reaction of Russia in response to the direct and indirect intervention of the USA and EU in Ukraine particularly during the recent months. Leaving aside this part, there are some other evidences, which show that president Putin did not have any such plan for Ukraine. Among these evidences the construction of new Russian pipelines could be mentioned. Here is the story.

As we know, following the repeatedly gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine in 2006, and again in 2009, Russia decided to find a new and safe way to export its gas and oil to the EU. In doing so, Russia was constructed two different pipelines of North Stream and South Stream. If we look at the routes of these two pipelines, we see that none of these huge and important projects passes the Ukrainian territory. The North Stream pipeline passes under the Baltic Sea and goes directly from Russia to Germany. The South Stream pipeline passes under the Black Sea and inters in the EU territory.

These two projects indicate the fact, that Russia did not have any plan or intention to directly invade or annex Ukraine; otherwise, Russia might have built some parts of these pipelines within Ukrainian territory, at least the South Stream pipeline, for example. From this, we can deduce that Russia did not want to annex Ukraine, but at the same time it did not/ and still does not want that Ukraine would become a member of the EU or NATO mainly based on the security measure. In fact, Russia wanted and still wants that Ukraine would be a neutral country and function as a buffer zone between the EU and Russia. Such a position for Ukraine is equally beneficial for the EU and Russia in terms of security. I,m wondering why and how the policy makers in the USA and EU do not pay attention to such a clear evidence.

In short, the policy makers in Norway and Germany should pay attention to these small details and do not fall in the trap of other states with regard to the current dispute in Ukraine. Let Ukraine function as a buffer zone between the EU and Russia; do not attempt for broader and deeper EEAS program further (The European Community / European Union Association Agreements) among the Central Asian countries; and consequently, do not minimize your security.

M. Sirani                                  18.03.2014

Russia Checkmated U.S. and Some EU Countries in Crimea.

Finally, the totally wrong foreign policy of U.S. and some of the EU countries in Ukraine led to the promotion of President Putin in the international arena. Russia officially annexed Crimea today.

This is a historical moment that Victoria Nuland and some other EU's officials did not anticipate it, while they were happily distributing some candy among the Ukrainian people at Meidan Square in Kiev couple of months ago. This event, however, shows that some of the policy makers in both the USA and EU do not have appropriate expertise in performing their jobs. Such policy makers know what they want; they know where and how they have to start a policy; but they have absolutely no idea what the side effect or consequences of their acts might be. In other words, such policy makers know how they should jump and fly, but they have absolutely no idea where they would land in the end. These policy makers should pay more attention to this notion: starting and performing any policy is easy. But this is not the whole issue. The important point is how this policy reach its main goal in an appropriate manner with minimum negative consequence and side effect. This is something that Mr. H. Kissinger wrote about it in his recent article with regard to the current tension in Ukraine. 

At this stage, however, it would be wise for the USA and EU to implement "damage control policy" with regard to the current tension in Ukraine. Different evidences indicate the fact that the harsh reaction not only cannot stop Russia, instead it would facilitate a better opportunity for Kremlin to intervene in other parts of Ukraine in the near future. The potentiality for such a move exists within Ukraine itself as well. I hope the policy makers in both the USA and EU observe such potentialities. Thus, the USA and EU should ease the tension and try to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution for this conflict. Otherwise, the situation in Ukraine would become worse than what it is now.

M. Sirani                        18.03.2014

Sunday, March 16, 2014

President Putin is Not a Pushover Person Anymore; Don't You Get it?

Any sanctions, any hostility, any rhetoric of threat against Russia not only do not solve the current dispute in Ukraine, instead it will create extra trouble in this matter. The recent development in Ukraine, today's referendum in the Crimean peninsula and pro-Russia demonstrations in some cities such as Donetsk, Odessa, and Kharkov are clearly showing that Russia and president Putin are serious about the Ukraine and its future. The combination of all these events illustrates that president Putin is not a pushover person and Russia does not tolerate anymore the expansion of the EU and NATO close to its borders.

A simple review about the recent developments in Ukraine illustrate the fact that anytime the West has tried to put a pressure on Russia in any direction, president Putin has responded with more aggression and hostility. Thus, it would be wise for the USA and EU to follow the damage control policy at this stage. By implementing this policy, the USA and EU would calm the tension not only within Ukraine between different ethnic groups but also between themselves and Russian authority. Should this happen, Russia might not take further aggressive reaction with regards to the Crimean peninsula and other places in Ukraine. In such an environment, the UN, USA, EU and Russia might be able to find a diplomatic solution for this conflict. Otherwise, Russia would quickly annex the Crimean peninsula and furthermore would continue to swallow the other parts of Ukraine.

Imposing some economic and political sanctions on Russia would also damage the EU and consequently the international community particularly at the present time, while the whole world is experiencing a global economic downturn. All the EU countries should think about their economic trades with Russia in different terms including their needs to Russian oil and gas. Some EU countries such as England and Switzerland, which are the capitals of finance in the international arena, should think about the consequences of economic sanctions and asset freezing on their banks and financial markets. These countries should consider this event that in 2015 Chines Yuan will enter in the market as a international currency. Such a harsh reaction will damage these states in the future. Some other countries such as Norway, for example, should think about the consequences of these sanctions on Russia in terms of its security and the future of the New START Treaty. The EU should think about the consequences of the sanctions on PCA deal (Partnership and Cooperation Agreement) with the Central Asian countries. And many more short & long term negative consequences. 

Moreover, Such harsh reactions against Russia, in addition, will offer Iran and Syria massive advantages, each in different terms. This is something that the USA and EU should consider, while they are discussing how to response Russia.

To be sure, I'm not defending the reaction of Russia in the Crimean peninsula. My point is that the USA and EU should and can solve the current dispute in Ukraine in a better way.

Note: Someone should give a wake up call to the UN. It seems the so-called "Our legitimate International Institution" is in a hibernation mode. Honestly, the current UN reminds me to the League of Nations. We should ask ourselves what the UN has done or are doing with regards to the civil war in Syria or the current tension in Ukraine or devastating tensions in most of the African countries? Once again, i repeat my previous words: The current United Nations and its important entities i.e. The Security Council, need a fundamental reconstruction and reform in different terms. 

M. Sirani                     16.03.2014

Saturday, March 15, 2014

Ukraine is on the Verge of Fragmentation.

The wrong policies of the USA and some of the European countries have finally forced Russia toward the point of no return in Ukraine. There is high probability that tomorrow the majority of the people in the Crimean peninsula will vote in the favor of self-determination and subsequently Crimea will join Russia.

This event will not be peacefully neither in Crimea nor in other parts of Ukraine. Undoubtedly, we will witness widespread clashes between different ethnic groups across the country. As time goes by and gradually, other cities in Ukraine (Mostly in Eastern part), which the majority of people are pro-Russia, will demand the central Ukrainian authority to join Russia as well.

In short, the whole country will face a chaotic atmosphere in different terms for a while, maybe for the months ahead. The creation of the so-called "National Guard" will escalate the tension further. Such events, which will be probably accompanied with ethnic cleansing, will facilitate an opportunity for Russia to  interfere further and deeper in Ukraine's domestic affairs. The combination of all these events will gradually push Ukraine toward further fragmentation beyond the Crimean peninsula, if the UN, USA, EU, and Russia would not be able to find a reasonable and diplomatic solution for this dispute. Whatever the result of this conflict would be, this is the poor Ukrainian people (I mean Both Russian and Ukrainian), who suffer the most.  

M. Sirani                                15.03.2014 

About The Missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370.

As the new data suggests, the flight MH370 may have been sabotaged or hijacked. If this news is true, there are two possibilities for this flight. Either the flight MH370 has been intentionally or unintentionally crashed or exploded by the hijackers somewhere in the middle of the Indian Ocean, or it has landed in a secret comfort zone, which might be a blind zone for most of the radars and satellites in that area. If the flight MH370 has been crashed or exploded, (which i hope not) then sooner or later, we will / should find the wreckage of the plane somewhere in the region. But, if the plane has been hijacked or sabotaged, we are facing another story.

There is, so far, a hypothesis in this regard. Some claim that the flight MH370 has headed toward the Andaman Islands located in the Indian Ocean. The probability that flight MH370 has landed somewhere in these Islands, is very low, based on many technical, geographical and most importantly military reasons. As an example, these Islands are strategically important areas for India. Thus, the idea that the flight MH370 has landed in one of these Islands and the Indian authorities have not detected this event yet, is something hard to believe.

If the plane has been hijacked and the perpetrators have not exploded or crashed the plane yet and moreover, if the plane has flown toward the West, as the Malaysian authorities claim, the flight MH370 may have landed in a remote area in some other countries in the region. Among these potentially suspicious countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen, Somalia and Sudan could be mentioned. I don't want to point my finger at any of these countries directly and blame their authorities for such an event. My point is that these countries have the best potentiality for such an action, based on many reasons, which are out of the scope of this short note. In this respect, however, Iran might or could be an exception, due to the fact that Iran has done such a hijacking in the past. As a clear example, the hijacking of a civilian plane in 2010 and subsequently capturing and arresting Abdolmalek Rigi by the Iranian authority, could be mentioned.

After all, what lesson/s can we draw from this event, if ( I emphasize "if") the flight MH370 has been really hijacked, as the Malaysian Authority claims? In response to this question, four important issues could be mentioned.

1- The first important issue is the safety and security of all passengers and the crew of flight MH370. This is something that not only the Malaysian authority but also the international community should be aware and focus on it.

 2- The second issue is a fact that after all these years since 9/11, some states, airports and airlines are still vulnerable and chaotic in terms of following, implementing and preserving the proper security measures.

3- The third issue is a potential serious threat, which might be used against us somewhere in the near future. This missing plane can be used as a powerful weapon to aim at any target around the world. Thus, it would be wise that all the states in the region should be on full alert in terms of security concern, at least for a while.

4- The fourth issue is the scale of threat in this hijacking. If the perpetrators have hijacked the plane and after couple of days, still they have not demanded any ransom or request, we should be much more careful, more than the third issue mentioned above. Such a behavior might be understood that the perpetrators are preparing themselves for some big and sudden further move or attack. Therefore, they don't want to reveal their location or identification at this stage. In this case, we should be carefully prepared and follow the rule of "expect the unexpected".
(Once again, i emphasize that the issues mentioned above are some possibilities, in case that the flight MH370 has been hijacked). 

In sum, I don't want to develop a conspiracy theory by saying that an important person has been in this flight; thus a governmental authority in the region or elsewhere has decided to secretly hijack the flight MH370. But, it would be very useful, if the Malaysian authority reveals the real names and photos of all the passengers and the flight crew of the flight MH370. By using this type of data, we might be able to find a better and reliable information about the mystery of flight MH370. Otherwise, the flight MH370 might be added to many so-called "unresolved, unknown and mysterious events" in our historical archive, at least for some decades to come.  

Note: If i had enough information, for example about the passengers and crew in this flight or some technical information such as: how far the flight MH370 can fly (in terms of fuel), or the type of communication devices (visible or hidden) embedded within this plane and their accessibility for passengers and crew as well, i would have provided a better and more reliable analysis in this matter. However, as an individual, i hope all the passengers and crew of the flight MH370 are in a safe and secure condition & environment, wherever they are and soon will join their families and relatives. Maybe, I'm too optimist, but this is the only thing i can do at the present; wish them all the best of luck.

M. Sirani                                   15.03.2014    

Friday, March 14, 2014

Warning: The Occurrence of A Wide-Spread Ethnic Cleansing in Ukraine.

There is high probability that we will experience a wide-spread ethnic cleansing in Ukraine. In case of occurrence, this event would include both the Crimean peninsula and Ukraine, each in different scales. The UN, US, EU and Russian authorities should be aware of that. Different evidences at the present time underpin my short statement in this matter. Among these evidences, the creation of a National Guard in Ukraine could be mentioned.

M. Sirani                             14.03.2014

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Creation of National Guard in Ukraine???!!! (Do Not Think About the Use of Western Private Security Contractors in Ukraine).

Leaving aside that this move could be clearly understood as a preparation for a civil war or a coup d'état, 
i hope the policy makers in the USA and some of the European countries are smart enough to do not involve some members of  private army and security contractors in this so-called "National Guard" in Ukraine.

Once again, i repeat my previous warning. With such hasty and interventionist behaviors, the USA and some of the European countries are directly compelling Russia toward the point of no return in this matter. The result of such reactions would lead Ukraine toward either a bloody civil war or geographical fragmentation beyond the Crimean Peninsula.

The policy makers in the West should pay attention to this point that the current interim Ukrainian government is not the representative of all eligible people in this country. There are some Ukrainians, who neither support the current interim government nor former president Yanukovich, based on many reasons. Such a differentiation could be a simple cause of a civil war in the current chaotic atmosphere of Ukraine. There are also many external actors, who would take a side in such an event. To put its simply, there are enough materials for the beginning of a civil war in Ukraine. Thus, it would be wise for the policy makers in the West to once again review their policies with regard to current tension in Ukraine.There is still place for diplomatic solution.

M. Sirani                         13.03.2014

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Ukraine is the Last Station of the EU and NATO Expansion.

The current reaction of President Putin with regard to Ukraine is the same as the reaction of President Kennedy in 1962, when Nikita Khruschev proposed the idea of placing some of Soviet Union nuclear missiles in Cuba. In this respect, we cannot blame Russia, If we put our feet in the shoes of the policy makers in Kremlin. In fact, the current reaction of Russia in Ukraine could be understood as the starting point of implementation of the Monroe Doctrine of President Putin in this part of the world. By deploying forces into the Crimean Peninsula, Russia is loudly and clearly shouting to the EU and NATO that: No More Expansion; Enough is Enough. Thus, it would be wise for the USA and EU to do not take any hasty decision in this matter. The policy makers in the USA and EU should understand that some ideas such as kicking Russia out of G8 countries or imposing sanctions on Russia not only do not solve this problem, instead, it would escalate the tension and cause extra problems in different terms particularly in two economic and security arenas. By performing such policies, the EU would lose the same as Russia and the result of these policies would impact the international community. In sum, President Putin is determined to make Ukraine the Last Station of the EU and NATO Expansion in this part of the world.

M. Sirani                                  12.03.2014

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Two US Drones Have Been Shot Down Over Crimean Peninsula.

There is a rumour that two US drones have been shot down over the Crimean Peninsula. Such an vent, if this news is true, along with the presence of some Western private security-military contractors in Ukraine will escalate the tension in this country unnecessarily.With such tactics, the USA and some of the European countries are intentionally forcing President Putin to surprise the international community once again by another aggressive move. The USA and its allies should understand that with such behaviors:

1- The West is creating extra reputation for President Putin among the Russians and neutral outsiders.
2- The West is pushing Ukraine toward a civil war.
3- The West is pushing Ukraine on the verge of collapse and fragmentation.  

M. Sirani                              11.03.2014

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Exclusive: The Western Media Are Trying to Find A Connection Between the Malaysian Crashed Plane and North Korean Missile Test.(Sherloch Holmesian Methodology).

Unbelievably simple and shallow minded propaganda. When i see or hear such a news, I'm wondering, do i have to laugh at the developer or producer of such a news or what. For god sake, if you want to use media in order to put pressure on North Korea regarding its missile test, try to use an expert. Such a ridiculous propaganda will ruin your efforts in this matter. In this respect, the British Broadcasting Corporation "BBC" is the worse example.

M. Sirani                        08.03.2014

Friday, March 7, 2014

Exclusive: The USA is Trying To Build A New Berlin Wall Between the EU and Russia in Ukraine.

The USA and EU Should Not Push Russia Toward Zero-Sum Game in Ukraine.

The USA and some of the European countries are directly or indirectly push Russia toward more aggression. This is a fact that Russia has violated the international law at Crimean Peninsula. But if we put all these events in a simple premise of "Cause and Effect", we will see that this is the USA and some EU countries that compel President Putin to act in this way. We should not forget that during the last 23 years, the West has expanded its territory in different terms close to Russian borders. The NATO has expended itself close to the wall of Kremlin. In addition, during the last couple of months, the USA and EU have supported a group of so-called "oppositions", which most of them do not have any good reputation. The allegedly hacked phone conversation between Lady Ashton and Estonian Foreign Minister clearly indicates this issue. With all these evidences, the USA and EU accuse President Putin with power politics, or Putin lives in the Cold War era, Or Putin would try to create a new Soviet Union, etc. In fact, what we are observing currently in the Crimean Peninsula is the side effect of all these years expansionist behavior of the USA and EU close to the borders of Russia. We are not blind; we are not uneducated. This is a Christal clear fact.

I'm not a supporter of President Putin and Russia. If anyone reads my previous articles, perfectly understand this notion. I have directly and in some cases harshly criticized President Putin in many short notes and essays particularly for his close ties with the Islamic Regime of Iran and the current Syrian regime. But when it comes to the current tension in Ukraine, i don't blame Russia and President Putin.

The point is briefly as follows.

The USA is losing the power in different parts of the World. In the Middle East, Iran is expanding its influence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen and to some extent Palestine. These areas are almost out of the control of the USA. This issue is not pleasant for the allies of the USA in the region. As such, Saudi Arabia and some other countries in the region including Israel, the USA's closest ally do not trust the USA anymore the same as they did before.

African continent is also almost out of the control of the USA as well. There are two important events in Africa that the combination of both has gradually decreased the influence of the USA in this part of the world. 1- The emergence of different radical Islamist groups in different parts of Africa. 2- China's growing influence in African continent, which has started in 2003 and rapidly is continuing.

South American countries are also almost out of the control of the USA in comparison with 1960's 1970's.
In South East Asia, this is the China that is going to be identified as a super power in different terms,not just economically but also militarily.

In addition to all mentioned above, the USA has faced with the emergence of the BRICS group. The BRICS group will gradually prevail the supremacy of the USA in different terms. The combination of all these issues, compel the USA to be allied with the EU, the only left and trustworthy allies in the world. If the USA would be able to build a close ties with the EU the same as during the Cold War Era (i emphasize the same as the Cold War Era) America would be able to compete with the BRICS group in the future. Otherwise, the USA will gradually melting in the international arena and losing its supremacy to a large degree.

What is the plan of the USA with regard to to the current tension in Ukraine?
I think the USA would try to build a new Berlin Wall this time between the EU and Russia with regard to Ukraine. What would happen, If the USA would be able to push the EU and consequently, the EU gives membership to Ukraine? Should this happen, the reaction of Russia would be more aggressive. In this respect, for example, Russia might unilaterally withdraw from the NEW START Treaty. In this case, what would the EU do? What can the EU do? In this case, the EU should maintain and preserve its security by taking help from the USA, exactly the same as the Cold War Era. Should this happen, the USA has managed to build a strong block against the BRICS group and has managed to preserve its supremacy to some extent. As a result, the USA would be able to impose its hegemony on the EU countries like the Cold War Era. However, such an event would not be beneficial for the EU in different terms. Because, Russia has enormous economic ties with the EU. In addition, the EU is dependent on Russia because of its necessary energy. To put its simply, the USA would try to preserve its hegemony in the world at the expense of the European countries in the current tension in Ukraine.

 In sum, the USA and EU should not push Russia toward more aggression with such harsh reactions. Imposing any economic sanctions on Russia would be devastating on both sides and consequently for the rest of the world to some degree. Harsh reactions against Russia would cause enormous useless conflicts in different processes of decision making at global level. As an example, if the USA and EU would impose sanctions on Russia, the West would not be able to find a diplomatic solution for Syria. So would be the case of Iran's nuclear activity. The policy makers in the USA and EU should understand the negative consequences of their reactions with regard to current tension in Ukraine. Thus, it would be wise to do not push Russia toward zero-sum game and more aggression. Because in this case, all loses.  

Once again, i emphasize an important point. If we would enter a New Cold War Era with Russia; this time, the consequences would be devastating much worse than the previous one. Some might wonder why? Because, Russia has experienced lots of unpleasant events following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Eastern Block, the USA and EU had given Russia lost of promises, which they didn't keep them.

In the final part, I suggest the policy makers in the USA and EU read the recent article of Henry Kissinger with regard to this tension. 

 M. Sirani                                               07.03.2014        

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Why the USA and EU Do Not Respond to the Leaked Lady Ashton's Phone Tapping?

The allegedely leaked phone conversation between Lady Ashton and Estonian Foreign Minister, Mr. Urman Paet, has taken place in 25 February, 2014. During this conversation Mr. Paet discusses a serious issue with Lady Ashton.

Mr Paet says to lady Ashton:
“There is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition.”

The Estonian Foreign Ministry has confirmed the authenticity of this conversation. Given the fact that 88 innocent people were killed in the recent events in Ukraine, this brief information raises some important questions as follows.

1- Why the USA and EU officials have not discussed this important issue with the public?

2- Why the USA and EU officials do not respond to this phone conversation?

3- Why the USA and EU officials do not want to perform an investigation in this matter?

4- Why the USA and EU officials have closed their eyes to this Christal clear fact in Ukraine?

88 innocent people have been killed by sniper shots in Ukraine and someone from new coalition is behind this horrific event. Are you going to make a deal with such a coalition? and you are expecting that the international community believe what you are saying in the public events that you are supporting freedom and democracy? 

Millions of people around the world have seen this video clip and you cannot sweep it under the carpet. Today, you might close your eyes to this horrific event and do not talk about it. But one day, you will confess it in front of the whole world.This short note, however, does not mean that i'm supporting president Putin in Crimean Peninsula or the former Ukrainian President. I just want to say that the USA and EU have chosen wrong policy with regard to current tension in Ukraine. With this type of wrong policy, you are turning the world, once again into not only the Cold War era but also worse than that. You might wonder why worse than Cold War era. Simply, because, during the last 24 years (following the collapse of the Soviet Union) Russia has experienced lots of promises that the USA and EU did not keep.   

M. Sirani                             06.03.2014

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Breaking: A Huge Scandal (Lady Catherine Ashton and Estonian Foreign Minister Phone Conversation About Ukraine).

I'm not supporting the former Ukrainian President or the act of President Putin in the Crimean peninsula. But as a neutral person, i cannot simply close my eyes to the reality or deny the facts.
As it appears, the phone conversation between Lady Catherine Ashton and the Estonian Foreign Minister has been tapped. During this conversation, the Estonian Foreign Minister "Mr. Urmas Paet" says to Lady Ashton that those 88 innocent people, who were killed by the sniper shots during the recent conflict in Ukraine, had not been killed by the Ukrainian security forces. As Mr. Umas Paet explains, it seems someone from the new coalition is behind this killings. This is a huge scandal for the USA and EU politicians, who supported the new coalition in Ukraine.

Here below is the clip of this phone conversation.

This is a unbelievable embarrassing event for most of the politicians, policy makers and scholars in the USA and EU, those, who intentionally or intentionally closed their eyes to the facts in Ukraine. Such politicians should write their resignation letter as soon as possible at this time 02:24 AM. They should not wait until tomorrow.
The important part is, when this conversation has been occurred? When did Lady Catherine Ashton get this news about the situation in Ukraine? What did she do in response to this news? So is the case of Victoria Nuland. What did she do, when she heard this news?

M. Sirani                             06.03.2014                     

A Neutral and Reasonable Analysis Written by Jeffery Sachs about Ukraine.

I recommend the article titled "A New Post-Soviet Playbook; Why the West Should Tread Carefully in Ukraine" written by Jeffery Sachs.

The article has been published in FOREIGN AFFAIRS website. Those, who are interested, can visit the following link.


M. Sirani                   05.03.2014

Avoid Ukraine Debt Default; The Consequences Would Be Devastating.

Russia does not recognize the legitimacy of current interim government in Ukraine. In this respect, honestly, we cannot blame Russia. Simply, because the majority of eligible people in Ukraine has not voted for this interim government. In addition, we should not forget that Ukraine is on the verge of debt default. Should this happen, the results would be devastating not only for the Ukrainian people but also for Russia, EU and consequently for some other parts of the world to some degrees. Thus, it would be wise that the USA and EU forget the power politics policy at the present and try to find a reasonable and achieveable deal with Russia in this matter.

M. Sirani                              05.03.2014

The Effect of Tension in Ukraine on the Syrian Civil War and Iran's Nuclear Negotiation.

The USA and EU should understand that too much pressure on Russia with regard to current tension in Ukraine, undoubtedly will decrease the level of Russian cooperation in other areas. In this respect, the Syrian civil war and Iran's nuclear negotiation could be mentioned as just two simple examples.

M. Sirani                               05.03.2014

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Russia Tested An Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Today.

Today, Russia tested an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. I had anticipated such an event couple of days ago in my essay titled "What is currently happening in Ukraine?". I explored such an event in the form of the possibility of Russian withdrawal from the New START Treaty as one of the consequences of detaching Ukraine from this country. This is a Persian language essay and has been published in some of the Iranian websites. Those, who are interested to read the article, can follow the links below.

What is happening in Ukraine?

Part 1:

Prt 2:

M. Sirani                            04.03.2014

The EU Should Not Put All Its Eggs in the USA's Basket With Regard to the Current Tension in Ukraine.

This is a huge mistake, if the EU would follow the path of the USA with regard to the current tension in Ukraine. In this respect, the cost of detaching Ukraine from Russia would be very high mainly for the EU, not for the USA. If Ukraine would be detached from Russia in this way that we are currently observing, there is high probability that Russia would stop or would not renew the New START Treaty with the USA somewhere in the future. Moreover, we should not forget that the EU imports more than 30% of its energy from Russia. From this, we can deduce that the EU would maximize its vulnerability in two terms of energy and security, if Ukraine would be detached from Russia in this way. The USA, in contrast, does not lose anything at all, due to the fact that the USA does not need Russian energy and in addition, the country has enough nuclear weapons to defend itself against any nuclear powers including Russia as well.

Therefore, the EU should look at Russia as a competitive neighbour, not an enemy. As such, the EU should focus on a mutual understanding, respect and co-existence in its relation with Russia. Should this happen, the EU would be able to ease the tension in Ukraine. Such a event would be beneficial for the EU in the long term, particularly, when it comes to two important issues such as energy and security. To put it simply, the EU should not put all its eggs in the USA's basket with regard to the current tension in Ukraine.

In this respect, i (as an individual), observe three different reactions within the EU. There is a country like Germany, which is confident about the future of the EU in different terms. Therefore, it tries to find a diplomatic solution in a moderate way for this tension. There is a country like the UK, who would play in the middle and would try to have the EU and at the same time the USA with regard to this tension. There are some countries like France and Poland (each based on different reasons), who are not sure about the future of the EU in different terms and would try to keep the big brother (the USA) close. Therefore, both have harsh reactions against Russia. In sum, i believe, this is the time that the EU should trust itself and make its own decision. 

M. Sirani                             04.03.2014

Note: 1- This short note does not mean that I'm defending Russia and its current presence in the Crimean Peninsula.  Through this note, i just try to illustrate some consequences, which might occur in the future.

2- Today, Russia has successfully tested a long-range ballistic missile. This is something that i had anticipated in previous short notes and the long essay titled: What is currently happening in Ukraine? (Persian version).

Sunday, March 2, 2014

A New Discourse, This Time: The Deported Tatars From Crimea.

Following the failure of the western media's discourse amid dividing Ukraine into Western and Eastern parts based on some ethnic differentiation, the media has begun with another trick; those nearly 200,000 Tatars, who were forcefully deported from Crimea by Stalin's order in 1944. By using this event and some other issues such as Crimea imports its necessary water and food from Ukraine, some western media hope to create and cause a barrier against Russian troops in Crimea. This plan does not work; instead it makes Russia more aggressive in this matter. To put it simply, such a propaganda would escalate the current tension in Ukraine. This, as a result, would facilitate an opportunity for Russia to invade the whole Ukraine. In sum, different evidences show that the West does not have a clear and comprehensive strategy and tactic with regard to the current tension in Ukraine. It seems the West has spontaneously stimulated some type of movement in Ukraine, but they have absolutely no idea how to lead it; how to finish it. I'm wondering based on what types of evidences Victoria Nuland with such a high certainty during her phone conversation with the U.S. Ambassador in Ukraine said
 "F.... the EU". 

M. Sirani                            02.03.2014 

Saturday, March 1, 2014

The EU Should Consider Two Important Issues With Regard to the Current Tension in Ukraine.

In addition to the possibility of various military, security, economic, political, social and cultural consequenses of detaching Ukraine from Russia, the EU should consider two important issues in the long term.

1- The EU depends on Russia in terms of different forms of energy such as coal, uranium, oil and gas.

2- The future of the New START Treaty. If the West would be able to wean Ukraine off Ruusia, there is high probability that Russia would refuse to renew this Treaty in the future. In this case, the EU would be forced to accept the hegemony of the USA in different terms, mainly based on security concern; the same as it did during the Cold War era.

M. Sirani                       01.03.2014

The Smart Move of Putin, Which, So Far, Has Checkmated the West.

During the last couple of Weeks, the western media tried to create a discourse and impose an idea in the public opinion that there is some possibility that Ukraine would be divided into two Western (Pro West) and Eastern (Pro Russia) parts. I don't want to analyze this discourse. However, as it appears, Russian decision makers also knew what type of primary plan the Western powers have made for Ukraine. As such, Russia did not pay attention to the Western or Eastern parts of Ukraine. Instead, Russia deployed its arm forces to the middle part of the country; to an strategically important area such as "Crimean Peninsula". By this move, so far, Putin has checkmated the West.

M. Sirani                         01.03.2014