Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Special Thanks to the Princeton University for Providing the Best Undercover Position For Mousavian.

Finally after five years, Iran's lobbyist "Hossein Mousavian" has accomplished his mission in the US and returned to Iran. In this respect, we should thank the so-called independent, coeducational and nondenominational Princeton University for facilitating the best undercover opportunity for a criminal and human rights violator such as Hossein Mousavian.  The board of education at the Princeton University should be disgraced for providing this opportunity for a person like Mousavian, who as Iran's ambassador in Germany, was involved in the assassination of Iranian opposition in Berlin. The history will never forget the unforgivable crimes of the Islamic Regime and its domestic as well as foreign supporters.

M. Sirani                                     31.12.2013 

Monday, December 30, 2013

The New Tactic of Saudi Arabia Will Increase the level of Tension in Some Parts of the Middle East.

The recent nuclear deal between Iran and the six world powers in Geneva has been elevating the level of uncertainty and instability among most of the countries in the Middle East particularly for the two regional powers of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Although, there is no clear light at the end of  nuclear negotiation's tunnel with Iran, both Israel and Saudi Arabia feel truly threatened about this deal. There is simple explanation behind this matter.

The politicians in both Israel and Saudi Arabia think that a nuclear deal and more generally any normal relation between Tehran and Washington would offer the Islamic Regime good opportunities from different aspects as following. Firstly, such a nuclear negotiation marathon would give the Islamic Regime enough time to obtain nuclear weapon secretly and gradually. Secondly, any normal relations between Tehran and Washington would indirectly offers Iran free hand to continue further with its hegemonic and expansionist behavior in different parts of the Middle East. These two issues would endanger the security of not only Israel and Saudi Arabia but also their close allies in different parts of the Middle East. These issues, in addition, would threatened Saudi Arabia economically. If Iran would be able to deceive its Western counterparts following the nuclear negotiation, the US and E3 group would lift the economic sanctions on Iran. As such, Iran would be able to sell its oil and gas freely in the international market. Such a event, would decrease the oil revenue of Saudi Arabia to some extent and the same time would economically empower Iran. These assumptions and predictions of the politicians in Israel and Saudi Arabia might be right to some extent based on many reasons. The US reluctance with regards to the Syrian civil war in the last couple of months and recent military deal of selling the Hellfire missiles and ScanEagle drones to Iraq are just some examples, which could be understood in this respect. Through these types of behaviors the US would try to ease the tension with Iran.

Such issues, however, have desperately pushed both Israel and Saudi Arabia toward Russia. Because, Russia is the only actor, which might be able to solve the problems of both Israel and Saudi Arabia at this critical moment. Russia is the main supplier of Iran's nuclear facility-technology and at the same time Russia is the major supporter of Bashar Asad in Syria. During the last couple of months, however, the high ranking officials of Saudi Arabia and Israel have had different meetings with Russian politicians in order to change the behavior of the Kremlin with regards to Iran's nuclear activity and the Syrian civil war. As the media reveal, all these attempts have been failed; Russia has not changed its behavior with regards to these matters up until this moment.

In sum, the US reluctance and Russian ignorance in these matters, however, have been forcing Israel and Saudi Arabia to take care of these problems by their own. Saudi Arabia's massive financial aid to Egypt could be understood in this respect. By this move, Saudi Arabia against the will of the US, the EU, and Iran has been helping the military force in Egypt to defeat the Muslim Brotherhood. The recent Saudi Arabia's 3$ billion grant to the Lebanese army could also be understood in this respect. Through this type of aid, Saudi Arabia would try to gradually decrease the power and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and consequently in Syria. For the first time, the Lebanese army fired anti-aircraft guns at two Syrian helicopters that violated the Lebanese airspace yesterday. This is the first sign of Saudi Arabia's new tactic in the Middle East; a type of self-help. Such a new tactic, consequently, will increase the level of tension in different parts of the Middle East. As such, we will possibly witness more tension and sectarian violence inside Lebanon (between Hezbollah and Sunni groups), Iraq, between Lebanon & Syria, between Israel & Lebanon (Hezbollah) and possibly between Gaza Strip and Israel, in Bahrain, Yemen  along with Afghanistan, much more than what we have experienced in the last couple of years. These tensions will not be limited to the Middle East; it will spread to some parts of the former Soviet Union territorial geography as well.

M. Sirani                             31.12.2013      

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Another American Foreign Policy Mistake; This Time in Iraq.

As the media reveal, the US has begun to sell some
AGM-114 Hellfire missile (air -to- surface) and ScanEagle drone to Iraq. The consequences of this deal would not be beneficial for the US, Iraqi people and the Middle East based on some reasons including:

1- Everybody knows that Nouri Al Maleki is the puppet of the Islamic Regime in Iraq. From this, we can deduce that the US is transferring these high tech military equipment indirectly into the hand of the Islamic Regime. As such, we should expect that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset the Quds Force will be able to use these weapons or their technologies in different parts of the Middle East and North Africa somewhere in the future.

2- In reality, Iraq is a failed state. The shaky, vulnerable and weak political system in this country does not have proper control over much of its territory including in its capital Baghdad. The lack of a democratic and stable political system has created a chaotic environment in Iraq. There are increasing numbers of sectarian violence between different criminal-religious- fundamentalist groups including Al Qaeda's affiliates in the country. In such a chaotic environment, there is high probability that some of these criminal or fundamentalist groups will get access to these high-tech military equipment in the future. We should not forget that those Stinger Missiles that the US handed to Taliban to use them against the Soviet forces, were used later by Taliban against the US and its allies forces in Afghanistan. 

3- In addition, Iraq is experiencing a devastating civil war in one of its neighboring countries i.e. Syria. If the international community would not be able to find a fundamental solution for the Syrian civil war as soon as possible, sooner or later, the three countries of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq would be dragged into a catastrophic conflict between different religious and fundamentalist groups, much more than what we are experiencing at the present time; a type of deeper regional conflict.     

The policy-makers in the US should pay little attention to the consequences of this deal in the long term. However, the decision & policy- makers in the US might think that with this type of incentive they would be able to ease the tension in Syria or achieve a better position with regards to Iran's nuclear negotiation. In this respect, I can say: you are completely in the wrong direction.

M. Sirani                            28.12.2013

Sunday, December 22, 2013

An Immediate Temporary Truce in Syria is Needed.

Regardless of what the outcome of Geneva III conference would be, the UN should try to implement and enforce an immediate temporary truce in Syria, due to the harsh living conditions of the Syrian refugees in neighboring countries and millions of Syrians, who have been internally displaced in the country. Such a truce is beneficial for the Syrian Regime, the opponents and most importantly for the poor Syrian people from different aspects.

This event is possible, if the UN would be able to discuss the necessity of a temporary truce in an appropriate, comprehensive and neutral manner with the Syrian Regime and the opponents. We  should not forget that we had the best opportunity to implement such a truce right after the latest chemical attack in Syria in 21 Aug, 2013 (As I have suggested in my previous short notes repeatedly).

Since then, many innocent people have lost their lives in this battle; many others have left the country and many other have been internally displaced within Syria. A temporary truce would prevent additional unnecessary collateral damages and new waves of refugees. Such simple outcomes do not damage or undermine the power, authority and credibility of neither Bashar Asad nor the Syrian opposition nor the coming Geneva III conference. Implementing a temporary truce would just help to those poor Syrian people, who have lost everything due to the lack of every basic rule, norm, and law at the local, regional and international level. Thus, it would be wise for Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi to focus on this issue as well in addition to his effort for preparing the invitation guest list for the Geneva III conference.

M. Sirani                              22.12.2013

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Turkish Financial Scandal.

The recent Turkish corruption scandal clearly shows how the Iranian Regime has been able to bypass the economic sanctions. This is just a small sample. There are many other agents like Babak Zanjani and Reza Zarrab, who work for the Iranian Regime and have bases abroad. These agents have bases in different countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Russia, Afghanistan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, etc.
According to the Turkish authorities, Reza Zarrab alone has been involved in nearly 87 billion euro irregular money transactions mostly with Iran. Given the fact that Reza Zarrab and Babak Zanjani are not the only Iran's agents, who are involved in these types of irregular and illegal activities, we should find  reasonable answers for the following questions:
1- Can the economic sanctions change the main course of the Islamic Regime?
2-  Has the economic sanctions pushed Iran toward the nuclear negotiation?

M. Sirani                                 21.12.2013    

Monday, December 16, 2013

Ukraine At The Crucial Historical Crossroads.

Ukraine at the crucial historical crossroads: between accepting the invisible colonialism rule of the EU or obeying the visible hegemony of big brother Russia.

Nothing more to say; but from the bottom of my heart, I wish the best for Ukrainian people.

M. Sirani                17.12.2013

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

A Golden Dream For the Islamic Regime of Iran.

If Iran would be able to lift those sanctions imposed by the Security Council even temporarily, the country would become untouchable, when it comes to its nuclear activity, due to the increasing level of conflicts between Russia, China and the West at the present and also in the future. Should this happen, Russia and China would veto any resolution imposed by the West against Iran within the Security Council. Following this event, Iran will waiting for the Year 2015; a year that Chinese Yuan will become one of the most used international currencies around the globe. This is the golden dream of Iran; this is the time that the Islamic regime will become an untouchable political system in the world.

M. Sirani                              11.12.2013  

Monday, December 9, 2013

Iran's Military & Intelligence Budget Will Increase in The Next Year.

Iran's military & Intelligence budget for the next year (1393) will increase as follows.

1- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps:

Budget for year 1392 ==========> 36,896,523,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 44,566,686,000,000 Rial
 Nearly 20.7% increase

2- The Ministry of Intelligence Service:

Budget for year 1392 ==========> 11,381,063,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 13,674,270,000,000 Rial
Nearly 20.1% increase

3- The Regular Army:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 34,446,164,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 51,085,584,000,000 Rial
Nearly 48.3% increase

As noted above, the Regular Army will have a massive increase in its budget in comparison with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the next year. The reason behind this might be enormous economic sanctions imposed by the international community on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset organizations. Through this change, the Islamic Regime might 1- try to bypass the sanctions to some degree or 2- portray an unrealistic image that Iran is decreasing the overall power of the Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps. The massive increase in the military and Intelligence budget might also shed light on the possible outcome of the nuclear negotiation. Those optimist politicians should pay more attention to this part of the story, when it comes to Iran's nuclear activity and Iran's presence in the Syrian civil war. However, we should bear in mind that due to the serious lack of transparency and accountability within the Islamic Regime, the real military & Intelligence budget numbers are much higher than what the Regime has revealed in the media.

M. Sirani                                      09.12.2013

Friday, December 6, 2013

Nelson Mandela "A Real Prophet of Liberty, Freedom and Human Dignity" Dies At Age 95.

A great human being, who spent 27 precious years of his life in captivity, has left us. A real prophet, who devoted his entire life to the basic principles of human dignity, freedom, liberty and brotherhood has died at the age of 95. Let us, instead of mourning and (Crocodile Tears of those, who had closed their eyes to his captivity, due to economic and political interests in South Africa) follow Mandela's legacy. Let us make a better world for 2,7 billion innocent people around the world, who live under poverty line with less than 1 or 2 dollars a day; let us help millions of people around the world, who are in captivity because of their struggles for the basic human rights & needs.

M. Sirani                        06.12.2013        

Monday, December 2, 2013

Once Again Afghanistan Will Fall In The Hands Of The Taliban After A Bloody Civil War.

No matter the US would sign a security agreement with the current Afghan government or not, Afghanistan will fall in the hands of the Taliban after a bloody civil war as soon as the US and NATO troops would leave the country in late 2014. We should all be aware of self deception and not fall pray to it. The US and NATO troops (nearly 150,000 personnel) have not been able to defeat the Taliban after all these years. How would a security agreement, which allows some American troops (Between 6000 to 9000 personnel) remain in Afghanistan, be able to save the Afghan government against the Taliban?

Moreover, the president Karzai would try to ignore this security agreement with the US. The reason behind this is that the president Karzai might think that he would be able to keep the power in Afghanistan by making a deal or a type of reconciliation (Misassumption) with the Taliban. In this respect, I can say that the president Karzai is in the totally wrong direction. The Taliban would not share the political power in Afghanistan with anyone including Karzai. This is an inseparable ideological characteristic of the Taliban.

As soon as the US and NATO troops would begin to leave Afghanistan, the Taliban would start to seize the power step by step in the whole country. This process would be accompanied with some events as follows.
1- The country would experience a new wave of civil war worse than what it is now.
2- The Karzai's government would finally collapse.
3- Afghanistan would become another battlefield between Iran's troop (Shiite followers) and some troops supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, some other Arab countries in the region and Pakistan (Taliban + Sunni followers).

In sum, Afghanistan would become the biggest fiasco of the US and NATO in the world in different terms (e.g. Nation building, capacity building, economic, political, social, cultural, etc).

M. Sirani                                 02.12.2013