Saturday, April 22, 2017

The Possible Result of French Presidential Election 2017 (My Prediction).

Briefly:

M. Le pen and E. Macron will move into the second round. In the second round or Run-Off, M. Le Pen has more chance to win the election. My prediction in this regard would highly likely happen; unless a strange or extraordinary event would happen. The victory of M. Le Pen at this critical historical juncture that we are observing, would not be a simple event like any other ordinary election. Le Pen's victory has many regional and global complications in various terms. Le Pen's victory would push the entire EU towards the edge of total collapse. Her victory means the beginning of the end of the EU & EURO.

NOTE: Some events like Brexit, the Victory of President Trump in the USA and possible victory of M. Le Pen in France along with many other issues around the world indicate a fact that many parts of current international institutions, laws, regulations and conventions are not compatible with the realities of our contemporary world. We need some fundamental changes and adjustments in many areas. Don't you see the consequential collapses around the world? 

M. Sirani            22.04.2017

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

PM May Calls For Early Election=====>The UK is Not In a Good Shape.

Briefly:

Lack of proper qualification, knowledge and expertise. They have started with Brexit; but are confused what they should do from now on; or where they should go!!!!!!


Note: When some people do not have proper qualification, knowledge and expertise would become responsible for a big task,,,,,,, (One of the reasons for an empire to fall). 



M. Sirani             18.04.2017

Friday, April 7, 2017

The First Possible Consequences of Military Strike on Syria.

Briefly:

This apparently One Off military strike on Syria would have many consequences in short & long term beyond the geographical territory of Syria. One of the first possible consequences of this move might be the notion that both Iran & Russia would deploy more military troops and equipment into Syria probably in the next couple of hours & days.
The impact of such a move in terms of Syrian rebels is clear; needless to explore it.

Note: As i said in my previous short note, this One Off military strike will intensify the tension not only within Syria but also in some other areas across the Middle East or probably beyond.


M. Sirani                 07.04.2017

The USA Launched Military Strike on Syria. This Military Strike Would Intensify the Tension in Many Areas.

Briefly:

The USA launched Tomahawk Missile strike on Syrian airfield in retaliation to the recent chemical attack in Idlib area. This event raises three important questions as follows.

The Question 1- Did the Syrian air force drop chemical bomb in Idlib? This is a fact that Assad's regime has treated its opponents in a very cruel and inhuman manner in the last couple pf years. In this respect, the Syrian regime has used chemical weapon against its own people in various occasions in the past. But the idea that Assad's regime dropped chemical bomb (Sarin Gas) in Idlib is something hard to believe, based on many reasons mainly:

1-A: The first issue is the recent victories of the Syrian government. The Syrian government has achieved some magnificent victories in the past couple of months. Among these victories recapturing the city of Aleppo (The capital of Syrian rebels since 2012) could be mentioned. These series of victories indicate a fact that the Syrian regime has the upper hand in comparison with the Syrian rebels. From this we can assume that the Syrian regime has not been in a very critical position that would be forced to use chemical weapon in Idlib to save itself from the rebels.

2-A: The second issue which, might save the Syrian government from this allegation is the recent statements of some high ranking members of Trump administration. In the past couple of days, The United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both stated that the USA would not pursue "Assad Must Go" policy anymore; in order words the first & important priority for the USA is defeating and eradicating the ISIS; not changing the current Syrian government. These statements along with various statements of President Trump in the past were pleasant news for Bashar Assad in a way that Bashar Assad himself in some interview stated that he was ready to cooperate with president Trump in war against ISIS. Considering these positive statements, it is hard to believe that Assad's regime has used chemical weapon in Idlib; simply because the use of chemical weapon would have ruined all those positive statements of U.S. officials.

3-A- The third issue is the mentality of president Trump. Everybody, who have a little bit knowledge and have followed president Trump's statements and actions know one important thing that president Trump is a very serious person. He is not one of those politicians full of just empty words.

Based on brief details mentioned above, the chance that the Syrian forces have dropped chemical bomb in Idlib is very low, in my opinion.

The Question 2- Was this strike one time military strike or would continue?
Trump administration has stated that this military strike was a type of punishment with regard to the recent chemical attack in Idlib. From this we can assume that this might be a one time military operation. In this case, we face another question as follows.
Various groups and organizations in Syria including ISIS or Al-Nusrah front have access to various types of weapons and ammunition including chemical weapons due to 6 years civil war in the country. What would happen if in the next couple of days some of these groups e.g. ISIS launch a chemical mortar and target a Syrian rebel group? What would Trump administration do in such a hypothetical scenario? Would Trump administration launch another military strike against the Syrian government again? (To be honest, the recent military strike would pave the way towards such an operation in the future).

In short, This military strike does not change the Syrian civil war in a very effective and sustainable manner. This operation would on the contrary, pave the way for various groups to use this tactic and provoke the USA to perform more military strike against Assad's regime. Practicing such a tactic, if continues, would finally drag Trump administration into the Syrian civil war and direct military confrontation with Russia, Iran and China at the end of the road. Should this happen, we would witness a broad battlefield beyond the geographical territory of Syria & the Middle East. In such a hypothetical scenario we would observe many changes not only in the Middle East but also in Baltic area. Unfortunately, the results of these events would not be pleasant for neither the USA nor for Arab countries based on many reasons particularly the notion that as it appears the USA & its allies do not have a clear strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East.


Note: Trump administration could use this chemical attack event in a much better manner and get much better results. The lack of clear strategy would lead to disaster. 

M. Sirani                        07.05.2017

Monday, March 20, 2017

Wiretapping Trump Tower; A False Allegation Or A Factual & True Event?

Briefly:

When it comes to leaking the confidential information to the media outlets, both FBI & NSA directors claim that they cannot identify the main sources of the leaks in most cases. This simply means some within the Intelligence community leak the confidential data to the media without the knowledge of FBI or NSA directors.
If we accept that this is a true & honest claim, we can come to another logical & reasonable conclusion as follows: That some individual/s within the U.S. intelligence entities might have received an order from somewhere to do the wiretapping or spontaneously have decided to wiretap or intercept Trump Tower without the knowledge of for example the directors of FBI or NSA. In short, When some activity like leaking within the intelligence community would occur beyond the knowledge, power, authority and control of FBI or NSA directors, we can assume that some other activity like wiretapping or intercepting might also occur beyond the knowledge of FBI or NSA directors (This is a simple logical & factual calculation).   

In addition, we should not forget that the director Comey himself has stated recently that "there is no 100% privacy in the USA". Moreover, there is some evidences, which show that some U.S. Intelligence entity/ies has/have intercepted the phone conversation between General Flynn & Russia Ambassador in the USA.

Based on these evidences and many other ongoing events in the USA (Which mostly indicate the Rise of Neo-McCarthyism) we can conclude that there is high probability that some individual/s or entities have wiretapped or intercepted the Trump Tower during 2016 U.S. election.

To put it simply: If i was in the hearing today, i would have asked both FBI & NSA directors the following questions:

A- Who within the U.S. Intelligence community have leaked the confidential data to the media?
Both probably could have answered they don't know.

Then i could have asked the second crushing question as follows.
B- When you don't know who within your entities have leaked the info, how on earth would you say with high probability that no one within your entities has wiretapped or intercepted Trump Tower?
Give me a single logical reason to accept the reliability & credibility of your argument in this regard.



Note: As i have said it earlier: Defending the USA in different terms against any domestic as well as foreign enemy should be an important task for every U.S. citizen. But this issue should not be mixed or accompanied with an anomaly like McCarthyism. The rise of Neo-McCarthyism would extremely damage the liberal values and democratic institutions of the USA. This is a dangerous trend and should be stopped as soon as possible; before it's too late.  


M. Sirani                       20.03.2017 

Friday, March 17, 2017

Some Predictions About The Meeting Between President Trump and Chancellor Merkel.

Briefly some of my predictions following this meeting: (The EU would face a series of uncertainty & instability).

A- A series of economic uncertainty would hit the entire EU zone (Chancellor Merkel will return back to Germany with almost "An Empty Hand" from this meeting).

B- The chance that Angela Merkel would be re-elected again is very very very low.

C- The victory of M. Le Pen in France means the beginning of DEFINITE collapse of the EU.

The consequences of each issues mentioned above in different terms at national, regional and global level are clear.



Note: My predictions are based on A- The body language of both the president & Chancellor Merkel B- Some of their answers during the press conference.



M. Sirani               17.03.2017

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

China & Russia Are Building "Floating Nuclear Power Plants". Why? For What Reason? Where?

Briefly: Where will these floating nuclear plants be used?

My prediction:
China will use it for its artificial islands in the South East Asia; it seems China has a long term development and expansionist plan in this regard.

Russia will probably use it in the North somewhere in the Arctic, as far as i can anticipate up until this moment.

Due to the massive cost of such a project and the notion that both China & Russia at almost the same period of time have started to build such a floating plants, we can anticipate that this is a well-coordinated and calculated move between Russia & China and it shows that China & Russia have a long term plan in this regard. The only thing i can say is that this is an important development, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated.




M. Sirani                      14.03.2017

Monday, March 13, 2017

New Referendum In Scotland: This Time Scotland Will Highly Likely Separate From the UK Based On,,,

Briefly: In case of new referendum:

This time Scotland will highly likely separate from the UK based on many reasons mainly:

A- Powerful nationalism

B- Confusion in different terms within current UK government specially following the Brexit.

C- Enjoying some opportunities within the EU for Scotland & Scottish people.

D- The influence of the EU.

The combination of many factors particularly four factors mentioned above, would give more probability to the occurrence of such an event.


M. Sirani                 13.03.2017 


Sunday, March 12, 2017

The EU Versus Turkey ( Wrong State, Wrong Time, Wrong Place/S, Wrong Tension ). Russia, China & Iran Should Thank the EU For This Mess.

Briefly:

Whether some like it or not, this is a fact; Turkey has currently the upper hands in many areas in comparison with the EU. The EU politicians should have A REALISTIC ANALYSIS from current situation and solve their problem with Turkey in a diplomatic manner. In case of escalation the tension, the EU would lose a lot much more than Turkey.

Note: Wrong State, Wrong Time, Wrong Place/S, Wrong Tension. 

Those geniuses in the EU should understand that by deportation of Turkey minister or preventing the rallies: 

A- They have created an unnecessary tension at this critical moment. 

B- They have increased the popularity of R. Erdogan and his government among Turkish people (The result of upcoming election in Turkey would confirm my statement in this regard; just watch).  

C- It should be added that Russia, Iran and China should deeply thank you for creating & intensifying this tension with Turkey at this critical moment. 



M. Sirani                  12.03.2017 

Just A Reminder: Some of My Earlier Predictions About Weak or Wrong Polices of Obama Administration-EU With Regard to Turkey.

Briefly:

Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.


Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
 And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part. 

What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:

A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China

B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.

C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.

D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.

E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO. 

F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries. 

G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.  

And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.  

Honestly: The kindergarten policies of Obama administration, some previous U.S. administrations and some EU countries are the main causes of such a big development.


M. Sirani                 20.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017




Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).




Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 


Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.
2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.
3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.
4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).


Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 


M. Sirani                24.11.2016


2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  



3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 


Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

Thursday, March 2, 2017

The Rebirth of New McCarthyism in the USA: Like A Cancerous Tumor, This Destructive Trend Would Destroy The Entire Liberal Values & Democratic Institutions in the USA, If It Would Not be Controlled By U.S. Authority ASP.


Briefly:

This destructive trend would spread into the EU; if it would not be stopped in the USA as soon as possible. This is a serious threat for basic liberal values mainly different types of freedom and global peace & stability.

Note for those, who their brains have remained frozen in the cold war era:
There are huge differences between defending your country from any domestic as well as foreign enemy in different terms and McCarthyism.


M. Sirani         02.03.2017  



Monday, February 13, 2017

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization Means Occurrence of Many Unpredictable Events Across the Middle East.

Briefly:

Such a move would have many consequences in different terms. One of the side effects of such a move would be a broad proxy war between U.S. forces and the Iranian Regime forces and its affiliates across the entire Middle East, e.g. in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. Such a move would forcefully change the balance of power in many areas across the Middle East.


Note: If the USA does not have a clear, effective & reliable strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East, for example how to eradicate radical Islamic Terrorism or how to deal with the civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and how to deal with the Iranian Regime, the designating IRGC as a terrorist organization would develop many backlashes and would become counterproductive at the end of the road. This is a very BIG MOVE. 


M. Sirani                13.02.2017  

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

A Direct Military Confrontation Between Iran And Trump Administration? There is Highly Likely, We Will Observe Such An Event Somewhere in the Future.

Briefly:

There is high probability that Iran and Trump administration will face a direct military confrontation somewhere in the future. Such a clash might happen somewhere in the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, the Persian Gulf of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether this military confrontation starts in Yemen, or Syria or any other areas mentioned above is not important. The important point is the notion that the military conflict will highly likely spread to all areas mentioned above, if both or one side will not react in a smart and professional manner. One thing is clear to me and that is that there are tough days ahead of all of us in this regard.


M. Sirani                           08.02.2017

Monday, January 9, 2017

Dreaming About Unified Cyprus? Read Some of My Previous Short Notes in This Regard.

Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017




Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).




Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 


Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.
2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.
3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.
4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).


Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 


M. Sirani                24.11.2016


2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  



3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 


Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

As Long As the Tension Between Turkey and Obama Administration- Some EU Countries Has Not Been Solved, The Unification of Cyprus Would Highly Likely Remain A Dream.

Briefly:

Turkey is upset from chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration & some EU countries. Thus the chance for a unified Cyprus is very low or i might say is nearly impossible in the near future.


M. Sirani                        09.01.2017

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Obama Admin Ignored My Proposal in Jan, 2014. Putin Used it in Dec, 2016 And Established A Nationwide Ceasefire in Syria (KIDS Do Not Pay Attention).


Here below is a copy of my short note in this regard (Putin checkmates your from every angles; because you don't have enough knowledge & qualification; because you don't pay attention to a reasonable proposal from an outsider like me. Thus, You "Geniuses" deserve to be beaten).

M. Sirani                    07.01.2017

                  Bashar Asad's Latest Statement.



The United Nations and the Western countries are hoping that the coming Geneva II peace conference would pave the way towards a political transition in Syria. Different evidences, however, show that not all the internal and external actors involved in this conflict, have the same expectation and perception in this matter. Among these, Bashar Asad's recent statement could be mentioned. Last night, the Syrian State TV aired the latest Bashar Asad's statement with regards to Geneva II Peace Conference. In this TV program, Asad was quoted as telling that:

"if we wanted to give up, we would have done so at the very beginning. We are on guard for our country. This issue is not up for discussion"(Dailystar, 2014).

Another example is the Islamic Regime's statement in this matter. Iran has repeatedly claimed that it will not attend the peace conference with precondition, which defines that Asad should leave the power in Syria. From this, we can assume that Iran's puppet "Hezbollah" would reject this precondition and consequently the coming peace conference as well. Given the fact that the Syrian authority, Iran and Hezbollah are the key actors in this conflict and these actors are strongly rejecting the precondition imposed by the West, what would be the possible outcome of Geneva II peace conference?

This brief information shows that there is  A zero-sum game condition between the key actors involved in this conflict. As such, we cannot have high expectation from Geneva II conference. This, however, does not mean the end of the world. We can attend the peace conference and achieve some positive common goals, which would are beneficial to some degree for at least most of the actors that are involved in this conflict. One of these goals would be implementation of a temporarily truce as a first step (later sustainable) between Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition in the country. If we manage to make a reliable deal in this matter, we would be able to reach the further positive goal in this conflict. This goal would be defeating and dismantling the Jihadist groups in the country by the common help and assistance of Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition. Should this happen, we would be able to move further and progressively with regards to finding a fundamental solution for the Syrian conflict step by step. Because the situation in Syria has become more complicated. In such a complex environment at this stage, we cannot suddenly jump into the final goal in this conference as the Secretary of State John Kerry wishes. Once again, I repeat my statement: without implementing these two main and primary tasks, we reach nothing with regards to the Syrian conflict.




M. Sirani                                 19.01.2014



Reference:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jan-19/244518-assad-says-not-ready-to-give-up-power.ashx#axzz2qqe6gl9G