I have some academic knowledge in International Development & International Relations. My specialty is analyzing the Islamic Regime of Iran, its domestic as well as foreign affairs. Among my essays uploaded in this blog 1- The structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (My bachelor thesis), 2- Iran should not get the nuclear bomb, 3- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and 4- An assessment about the Syrian civil war could be mentioned. Twitter: @MSirani
When it comes to the nuclear negotiation with the Iranian Regime at this stage, the representatives of the USA, UK, France and Germany should put their feet in the shoes of policy makers in Tehran for a moment and look at the situation as a whole in that perspective. What would they see and observe?
They see (From Iran's policy makers perspective) that Iran has built nearly 20 nuclear plants across the country (As far as the international community has discovered). The western countries cannot destroy all these nuclear plants with military strike, particularly when it comes to Fordow nuclear plant, which has been built nearly 90 meters deep under the ground. In addition, any military strike against Iran's nuclear plants would end up into a huge environmental catastrophe not only for Iran and the Iranian People but also for the all people in the region.
Moreover, the current military operation of the USA and its allies in Iraq and Syria is totally beneficial for Iran and Syria in different terms. These military operations, in addition, show clearly that the coalition is desperately trying to do something in Iraq and Syria, but they have absolutely no idea what the final point of these operations would be. The members of coalition does not have a clear and coherent strategy and tactic with regards to the current tension in Iraq and Syria. Some of them, for example Australia, wants to get rid off Assad's regime in Syria and at the same time, in a total contradiction, wants to cooperate with the Iranian force in Iraq against ISIS. Some like, Saudi Arabia wants to get rid of both regimes in Iran and Syria, but at the same time fight against ISIS in the favor of both Iranian and Syrian Regimes.
Furthermore, most of the western countries are struggling with some type of economic and political crisis in their own countries each to some extent. In the USA, for example, the republican party is going to seize the power from Democrats in different arena. Some of the EU countries are struggling with economic crisis. When it comes to foreign policy, most of the western countries are struggling with Russia, for example, due to current tension in Ukraine. So is the case of China in another term. The public opinion in the western countries is not ready for a military strike against Iran's nuclear plant at least at this stage. In sum, the list goes on in different social, cultural, economic, political and environmental terms in both domestic as well as international arena.
Based on the brief explanation noted above, if you were a policy maker in Tehran, would you accept a nuclear deal with the western countries as they wish?
If we honestly put our feet in the shoes of policy makers in Tehran, the right answer to this question would probably be a strong NO.
Don't blame me, when i say that we are living in the era of total confusion. The recent interview of Senator David Johnston, the current Defense Minister of Australia confirms my statement in an appropriate manner.
In an interview, which has been published in the Sydney Morning Herald, Mr. David Johnston stated that "Australian commandos may join with Iranian Quds in fight against Islamic State".
God bless Niccolo Machiavelli. If Machiavelli was alive, he could get extensive and comprehensive lectures in terms of the lack of moral and ethical principles in policy making, hypocrisy, not double standard but also multiple standard, and opportunism from some contemporary politicians.
1- Does Mr. Johnston has any idea about the activity of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its special force the Quds Force?
2- Has Mr- Johnston forgotten that some of the Australian troops and other Western countries forces have been killed and assassinated by Iranian Quds force in the last couple of years in Iraq and Afghanistan?
3- Does Mr- Johnston's statement in this matter have any compatibility with the will, wish and the main goal of other members of the coalition in fight against ISIS?
I suggest Mr. Johnston read the three following essays in my weblog. By reading these essays, he would be able to offer more reasonable and logical statements particularly, when it comes to the Iranian regime and its terror leverages.
1- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
2- The Structure of power in the Islamic Regime of Iran.
3- Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East.
Honestly, you are shocking me with this type of statement or the controversial "shirt-front" statement with President Putin. It seems Australia is developing a new type of Foreign Policy.
As i have mentioned in my earlier posts repeatedly: I wish a supreme power should shake the Earth strongly; maybe by that the Earth rotates in the right direction in the hand of right political figures.
The international community, specially the United Nations, should carefully and cautiously follow the events in Tunisia. Based on many reasons, Tunisia might reach a critical point and total instability somewhere in the near future. Among these reasons, the weak political institutions, high rates of unemployment (averaged 15.39 percent), poverty, a severe fragmentation between secular and democrat political parties and neighboring with a failed state such as Libya could be mentioned. These problems indicate the fact that Tunisia has enough potentiality and tendency toward instability and unpredictable events.The combination of these domestic problems along with the ongoing rise of different Islamic Radical groups in the Middle East and some parts of Africa might lead the country toward a chaotic situation, possibly a civil war, somewhere in the near future; unless the secular and democratic parties seize the power and change the course of country in a positive and progressive manner.
I have developed a plan with regard to the current nuclear standoff between Iran and the Western countries. By performing this plan as a last effort, we might be able to fundamentally solve this problem in a peaceful and diplomatic manner.
The current military operation of the coalition in both Iraq and Syria has created a pleasant honeymoon for both regimes in Iran and Syria. Both the Islamic Regime and Assad's regime are using buck passing tactic and enjoying all the efforts that the coalition is doing against ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria. What else should the politicians in Iran and Syria wish?
The lack of logical, reasonable and professional planing will create a beneficial outcome for Iran and Syria in the final stage of these military operations as well; of course, if these operations continue in the future the same as it is right now without any change or adjustment.
It would be wise that the coalition slows down its operation for a while and adjust its plan and operation with more accuracy and long term thinking in Iraq and most importantly in Syria as soon as possible; before it's too late. Among these two countries, i emphasize on Syria based on many reasons including severe fragmentation and chaotic situation of the Syrian opposition. M. Sirani 24.10.2014
I have developed a plan. This plan might be the final solution for Iran's nuclear activity. By performing this plan, we might be able to solve the current nuclear standoff between Iran and the Western countries in a diplomatic and peaceful manner. When it comes to timing, the plan is still worth trying.
According to Human Rights Watch, the Ukrainian army has used cluster munitions against the rebels in Donetsk city in its military attacks in October. As it appears, Ukraine has not ratified the Convention on Cluster Munitions Treaty adopted in Dublin in 2008, yet. But contrary to Ukraine, most of the EU countries have signed the treaty. In order to prevent the excessive collateral damage and provoking Moscow more than this, it would be wise for the EU countries to give a strong warning to the current Ukrainian authority in this matter. In addition, the Ukrainian authority should be notified to consider the Basic Principle of Proportionality in its war against the rebels. Moreover, the authority in Kiev should be held responsible for the violation of the international law and convention in this matter.
Note: The United Nations is on the Hibernation Mode in this matter as well.
M. Sirani 22.10.2014 Reference: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/ukraine-used-cluster-bombs-report-charges.html?_r=0
This event, if it has been carried out by ISIS, shows that the so-called Systematic Counter Terrorism Strategy needs some serious adjustment. I hope those policy makers, who are involved in this matter, fix it as soon as possible; before it's too late.
More than two months heavy military air strikes performed by various countries on ISIS targets and after all these efforts performing such a act by ISIS clearly shows that there is something really, really, really wrong with your plan. This is a simple fact that every strategist, policy maker and decision maker should know it.
Based on my assumption from the last two months, i can say that the current policy of the coalition in both Iraq and Syria will be just beneficial for the Iranian Regime and nothing else.
I'm wondering do you really have any idea where are you heading? Do you have any idea what will be the consequences of your current action in the future? Who / which actor will benefit from your current action?
Once again, the nuclear negotiation with Iran reached a dead-end alley.
The Iranian Regime's lobbies have been penetrating in every corner of the western societies and do their jobs in an efficient and comprehensive manner, while some of the western policy makers are still in the hibernation mode. You could have solved this problem many years ago in a peaceful and diplomatic manner, if you didn't delude yourself by listening to nonsense of some like Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mir Hussein Mousavi, Rouhani, Zarif and their lobbies, which are deeply penetrated in all your educational and foreign policy systems. When it comes to Iran's nuclear activity, you have reached the point of Too short, too little, too late.
Dabiq is the name of magazine that ISIS publishes once in a while. Those, who do not have any clue about ISIS, Islam, and the main goal of nearly all radical Islamic groups no matter Shiite, Sunni and any other branches within Islam, should take a look at it. Those, who are interested, can visit the following link.
Important Note: I don't give any guarantee about the safety of the link and ISIS website in terms of virus, Trojan, or what so ever. The same as all of you, i don't trust this terrorist group at all. My intention to share this short note and the link is only to provide some basic knowledge and information about this barbaric and stone age organization for those, who are visiting my weblog regularly. Thus, i suggest you to visit the link with extra care and attention.
The link: https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/islamic-state-e2809cdc481biq-magazine-2e280b3.pdf
This event would damage the Turkish authority in both the domestic as well as international arena. When it comes to the international arena, by such a move, the Turkish authority shows that its first and important enemy is PKK rather than ISIS. The combination of this event, releasing 49 Turkish diplomats by ISIS along with the refusal of Turkey to help the trapped people in Kobane lead us to a perception that it might be a close relationship between ISIS and the Turkish authority behind the scene. This is an important development, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated by other members of the coalition.
In domestic arena, such a military move would intensify the tension between the kurds and the Turkish authority. This event, as a result, would inevitably deteriorate the shaky peace process between PKK and the Turkish government.
Instead of such a military move, Turkey could facilitate an opportunity for its kurdish citizens to help the people in Kobane. By such a move, the Turkish government could ease the tension with PKK in the one hand, and would increase its popularity among the Kurdish people not only within Turkey but also in the whole region on the other hand. This issue could increase the chance of a permanent peace agreement with PKK and put an end to more than thirty years war with the Kurdish rebels. Such a move, could also help the President Erdogan in performing his reforms in the domestic arena.
As it appears, however, the Turkish authority has decided to focus on its domestic short term goal rather than its long term domestic as well as international goals.
As the media claim, ISIS has seized Al-Anbar province. As a result, more than 180,000 citizens of the province have fled the area as the UN claims. This simply means, ISIS has full control over one of the Biggest Iraq's dam i.e. Alhadith and the ISIS fighters are closing to Baghdad. It should be added that if ISIS explodes Alhadith dam, the float of water would wash away Baghdad.
Briefly: Literally strategy means a scientific method or an effective plan in order to achieve a certain goal somewhere in the future.
It's been nearly two months, since the beginning of the military operation against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. During this period of time, the U.S. authority has been spending nearly $10 million dollars daily in this war. Spending this amount of money could be applied to other members of the coalition; a coalition, which consists of 60 countries as the Secretary of State John Kerry and some other U.S. officials claim.
What was the result of your past two months efforts?
ISIS is progressively seizing new territories in both Iraq and Syria. You have not been able to form a so-called unity and inclusive government in Iraq. You have not been able to build and develop a reliable coordination among the members of the coalition. Turkey, your close allies in NATO, for example, would not cooperate in this battle; in addition would not give you a clear permission to use its territory against ISIS. This event happens at the time that the new NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claims that: "NATO can put troops wherever it wants".
After two months war, you have begun talking about the necessity of ground forces. In this respect, you have also a serious problem; because the current prime minister of Iraq has repeatedly stated that they don't need any ground force from the coalition. Meanwhile, you are struggling with Iran in different battle fields. In one front, you are trying to control and neutralize Iran's adventurous nuclear activities. In another front, you are struggling to decrease the power and influence of Iran in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. You don't have any clue how to deal with Iran in these different areas. The case of Syria itself is another dilemma for you. At the same time, you are pushing Russia with regard to current tension in Ukraine. In this respect, you are blocking yourself within the circle of the United Nations Security Council, in case if you need any legal and legitimate approval.
Considering these examples, you are telling us that you have a clear strategy against ISIS!
If you don't have a clear strategy, which i think you don't have, please don't give a false hope to those poor citizens in Iraq and Syria. Instead open the borders in all neighboring countries and let those poor people take refuge over there and live like normal human beings.
"It is not poverty that creates child labor. It is the opposite".
Are you shocked? So, don't be. You might wonder why?
Because, firstly, this is not my statement. Secondly, this is the latest genius statement of Nobel Peace Laureate Kailash Satyarthi, who has fought to end the child labor in India for more than two decades.
In an interview with Aftenposten, a Norwegian newspaper, Mr. Satyarthi stated that: "Det er ikke fattigdom som skaper barnearbeid. Det er motsatt" (Aftenposten, 2014).
The exact translation of Mr. Satyarthi's word by word would be the following:
It is not poverty that creates child labor. It is the opposite.
Following reading this article some ideas came to my mind.
1- The UNICEF should produce couple of thousands frames from Mr. Satyarthi's statement written by Golden Ink and hang one copy in every shanty towns around the world; a place that the children of some people such as Bill Gates and Warren Buffett can clearly see and read it and do not let their parents force them to work.
2- As it appears, the Noble Peace committee does not have enough time to perform a serious and appropriate research about different suggested candidates. That's why, once in a while, the members of Nobel Peace Prize Committee shoot themselves in their respective foot by choosing strange and peculiar candidates. In this respect, i offer my fully Pro Bono assistance to the Nobel Peace Committee.
3- I strongly suggest Mr. Satyarthi to put his statement in a simple cause and effect formula; and see how it functions.
Is there any hope for human race? I really don't think so. M. Sirani 13.10.2014 Reference: Aftenposten (2014). http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/Det-er-ikke-fattigdom-som-skaper-barnearbeid-Det-er-motsatt-7741019.html
I'm wondering where are those Military Generals in this so-called coalition, which consists of nearly 60 countries???
Are you scared of the reaction of Syrian Regime by performing such a plan? If this is the case, you have already violated the sovereignty and air space of Syria by your military air operations.
Are you scared of deploying Iraqi Kurds as some foreign fighters, who put their boats on the ground in Syria and the reaction of Assad's Regime? If this is the case, Syria has been and still is a heaven for foreign fighters from the whole world since four years ago. Thus, deploying some Iraqi Kurds to Kobane would not be a serious problem for the Syrian authority.
When it comes to monetary terms, this plan is also much cheaper than every flight that you are performing above Kobane on daaily bases.
Deploy couple of hundreds well-armed and professional Iraqi Kurd fighters by chinnok to the area and save Kobane. Otherwise, face the consequences of creation of an independent Kurdish State in the south of Turkey and North of Iraq in the near future.
You are shocking me. What is wrong with you? What are you waiting for? Note: It seems some policy makers at the international level need a simple lecture about "How to use the entire sources in order to achieve some certain goal?". M. Sirani 09.10.2014
Kobane and what happens currently in this city might not be an important issue for the Turkish authority based on many reasons. But saving Kobane and its citizens should be a priority at this stage for the coalition. The people in Kobane are struggling to defeat ISIS and save the city; These are the types of forces, who are fighting ISIS on the ground; these are the people that the coalition are desperately looking for. The coalition should not let them alone.
At the present time:
1- The Turkish authority neither sends its ground forces to save Kobane, nor gives a free corridor to the Iraqi Kurds to join the people in Kobane and fight ISIS.
2- The Iraqi Kurds will strongly help the people in Kobane, but they cannot do it by their own; due to the fact that firstly, Turkey would not give them free corridor. Secondly, they cannot enter into the Syrian territory directly from Iraq because of ISIS territory and forces.
3- The coalition will not deploy its ground forces to the area because of many reasons, which are beyond of this short note.
These are the main barriers at the present time. But there is a temporary solution, which would bypass the Turkish territory and authority and at the same time save Kobane from ISIS attack.
The temporary solution is Heli-Boarding the Iraqi Kurds to Kobane. The coalition can carry some professional Kurdish fighters, armed with some anti-tank weapons for example, from Iraq to Syria by helicopters. By such a move, we would be able to save Kobane and its citizens, until the coalition would find a fundamental solution. This is the best possible temporary solution at this critical stage.
We should not let Kobane fall in the hands of ISIS terrorists; we should prevent another genocide.
Undoubtedly, the latest chemical attack in Syria (on 21.08.2013) was one of the best historical moments, which we could find a reasonable solution for the devastating civil war in this country. If we did respond that horrible event in an appropriate and professional manner, we would have been managed to avoid many devastating events including the rise and strengthening of a brutal and barbaric organization like ISIS. Here below is the copy of my article following that chemical attack. It should be mentioned that i developed this plan just two days after the chemical attack and finally published the whole plan on my weblog on 07.09.2013; when i did not hear any proper reply.
M. Sirani 09.10.2014
A Plan That Might Save The World From An Additional Disaster.
How should we deal with the recent chemical attack in Syria?
The G20 summit in Russia ended without any agreement among the world leaders with regard to the Syrian conflict. Part of the disagreement at this stage derives from different opinions between the US and Russia over the recent chemical attack in Syria and how the international community should deal with this horrific and inhuman act. This event, however, has fragmented the international community into three different groups as follows.
1-A group of countries such as the US, France, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which claims that the international community should launch a military strike on Syria because of this chemical attack. Among this group, the two countries of the US and France have decided to unilaterally launch a military strike on Syria somewhere in the near future.
2-A group of countries such as Russia, China, India, Argentina and South Africa, which are against any unilateral military action against Syria. Among this group, Russia has openly announced that it will fully assist Syria in case of any military strike without U.N. Security Council backing.
3-A group of neutral countries such as some members of the EU, the Arab League which claim that any decision in this matter should be made within the United Nation Security Council.
These differences have dragged the international community into another deadlock. This issue raises some questions as follows. What should we do? How would we be able to break the current deadlock and at the same time respond the alleged chemical attack in an appropriate manner based on the current international laws, rules and norms? How would we be able to ease the tension in Syria? And finally, is there any other plan, which would be able to address all the questions mentioned above in a proper way? Regarding the current deadlock in the Syrian crisis, I have developed a plan, which might address all the issues mentioned above. Before I proceed further, however, I have to admit that this is the first draft; as such, it might need more improvement and modification.
- The First Draft of the Plan:
The plan includes different steps. All these steps should be performed and implemented parallel to each other by a joint committee consists of some representatives from the members of the United Nation Security Council, the Syrian government, the United Nation and possibly a representative from a neutral country like Norway for example; otherwise, we would end up in another dead-end alley in this crisis.
1- First step: The joint committee would establish a temporary ceasefire between Asad’s regime and the opposition in Syria up until the end of this plan. The establishment a ceasefire is not an easy task, but it is not impossible (I fully aware that the terrorist groups are exception in this matter and they don’t follow this process). By this move, we can decrease the collateral damage and the new waves of refugees and internally displaced people.
2- The second step: The US and France would agree to postpone their unilaterally military strike on Syria up until the end of this plan.
3- The third step: The Syrian government, in return, would agree to fully cooperate by all means with the joint committee from the beginning up until the last step of this plan without any delay, sabotage or nonchalant attitude.
4- The fourth step: Both the Syrian government and the opposition blame each other for the recent chemical attack. In this respect, the joint committee would deploy some experts to visit the chemical attack sites, in order to identify the perpetrators of the chemical attack.
5- The fifth step: The Syrian government would agree to extradite the perpetrators (no matter who they are) to the joint committee, if the committee found out that Asad’s regime has been behind this horrific act. The perpetrators of this horrible act should face a fair and lawful justice (I fully aware that Syria has not accepted the compulsory jurisdiction of ICC or ICJ).
6- The sixth step: The existence of massive chemical weapons in Syria is a serious threat for the Syrian people and the international community, particularly at this critical moment; when the country is experiencing a devastating civil war; when different terrorist groups have involved in this civil war. Moreover, the Syrian authority should understand a simple fact that it cannot use any of these chemical weapons against its opponents or enemies under any circumstances. Any attempt at this direction is equivalent with massive and broad military intervention on Syria and consequently the collapse of Asad's regime in less than a month. In such a event, the two super powers of Russia and China would not damage their reputation in the international arena by helping Asad's regime. Thus, it would be wise to get ride of these weapons of mass destruction. At this step, the Syrian authority would agree to destroy all its chemical weapons under the observation of some representatives from the joint committee (I fully aware that Syria is not a member of CWC).
7- The seventh step: The two countries of Russia and China would agree to neutrally cooperate with the joint committee from the beginning up until the last step of this plan. Russia and China, moreover, would agree to don’t paralyze the Security Council by their vetoes, if Asad’s regime doesn’t fulfill its responsibilities based on all policies mentioned above. To put its simply, by this move, the Security Council would be free to take any reasonable and necessary action against the Syrian regime, based on the international law in case that Syria doesn't cooperate (Effect on Public Opinion).
By implementing these steps, we would be able to save the world from another additional catastrophic event. As explored above, through this plan we would be able to:
1-Ease the tension to some extent at the local, regional and international level.
2-Perform the justice with regard to the perpetrators of this inhuman and barbaric act.
3-Minimize the serious threat of the massive chemical weapons accumulated in Syria.
4-Break the current deadlock in the international system.
5-Increase the level of cooperation between the states in the international arena.
6-Empower the authority of the United Nation and its powerful entity i.e. the Security Council.
7-Teach a good and clear lesson to possible violators of the international law and rules in an appropriate and lawful manner.
8-Decrease the collateral damage and the new waves of refugees and internally displaced people in Syria.
9-Facilitate a basic foundation for a diplomatic solution for the Syrian crisis.
This was brief explanation about this part of my plan for the Syrian civil war. Unfortunately, I cannot disclose the whole plan in this weblog; but I’m ready to present it to an official and reliable type of authority in order to save the lives of millions Syrian people. In the final part, we should bear in mind that any military intervention at this stage not only does not solve the conflict; instead, it would intensify the scope and dimension of this conflict into other areas in the Middle East. Thus, let us be reasonable; let us do not make another hasty decision; let us be smart, brave and use this disastrous event and turn it into a golden historical event, which is beneficial for all of us in the long term. In sum, I believe that following this plan and one month delay for a military strike on Syria do not damage the credibility of any state or anyone. We should bear in mind that: there is always room for a military intervention at any moment, but there is not always a possibility for a diplomatic solution at any moment.
The website Farda News (Iran's news agency) has published an article about Iran's red lines with regards to the nuclear negotiation. The red lines, which consist of eleven important points, have been outlined by the supreme leader Khamenei. Here below is a copy of this diagram. It should be added that the details in this diagram are in Persian language and should be translated.
M. Sirani 08.10.2014 Reference:
Iran's red lines in nuclear negotation (2014). URL:< http://www.fardanews.com/fa/news/372262/اینفوگرافیکخطوط-قرمز-مذاکره>. Accessed on: 08.10.2014.
The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.
I don't believe to astrology or prediction of an event in the future based on some type of dream or nightmare. But with high probability, i can say that the next president of the USA will be a Republican; unless a fundamental miracle happens in the foreign policy of the Obama administration in the next two years. If the Republican party chooses good and smart candidate and vice president (Not someone like Sara Palin; with all due respect to her), the party will win the next election by highest margin.
In short, i'm not a fan of Republican party or Neocon group or so-called warmongers. But, when it comes to the foreign policy, we (most of the people around the world) knew what the President Bush did want; we knew where his foreign policy would end up; we knew what was his main objective in every move. But with the Obama administration such a prediction is almost impossible. The administration moves first and then in the middle of the way stop in order to find a solution. In this respect, different examples could be mentioned. The latest chemical attack in Syria, which took place on 21.08.21013 is an example; when the President said the U.S. would attack Syria and later he changed his decision.
The recent unnecessary tension in Ukraine is another example. Such an unnecessary tension, which was based on wrong analysis and miscalculation of the administration has dragged Ukraine into a devastating and destructive civil war. This event, in addition, has caused many economic, political and social problems for Ukraine and the whole EU in different scales. Who/ how/when do you want to solve the problem in Ukraine? What did you achieve in this conflict so far?
The current war against ISIS is another example of mismanagement and miscalculation of the Obama administration. The administration has begun a war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and it has called it "Systematic Counter Terrorism Strategy". But there are lots of flaw and ambiguity in this plan as i have discussed some of them in my short essay entitled: Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East. As i follow the news, i have come to the conclusion that this is not a Counter Terrorism Strategy, because words including "Strategy" have their own meaning and definition. What we are witnessing in Iraq and Syria are just some sudden tactical military operations in Iraq and Syria without any real future perspective.
The same as other examples mentioned above, the administration has begun with some move in Iraq and Syria; but they don't know where exactly they are going. They have started the war; but in the Middle of the way they have come up with the idea that they need ground forces; because the air strikes alone do not function properly. They have started the war in a hope that the moderate Syrian opposition gain the momentum on the ground against Assad's Regime; but in the middle of the way they have understood that the Syrian moderate opposition does not have proper capacity to do that. So is the case of Iraqi forces. So is the case of members of the coalition. Some of them have supported the ISIS and Al-Nusra front in different terms for many years. Now, they are members of a coalition against ISIS. Some like Turkey performs prisoners swap with ISIS, while innocent American and English journalists and aid workers such as Alan Henning would be beheaded by ISIS, etc.
Based on all mentioned above and many other examples, i predict that the next president of the USA will be a Republican.
Foreign policy based on spontaneous and impulsive decision would undoubtedly end up to a huge fiasco.
Do not punish those innocent people in Kobane because of PKK; this is a huge mistake and will mostly impact Turkey in different terms.
Briefly: The Turkish authority will lose a lot in this particular matter. In case of such an event, the Turkish authority should firstly forget the peace agreement with PKK for many years to come. Secondly, President Erdogan will lose some of its support (Kurdish people) in domestic arena including within Turkey's Parliament . As a result, he will once again fail to reform the constitution in order to increase his power as the President.
In addition to creating the atmosphere of fear,horror, chaos and uncertainty, hostage taking is one of the main sources of income for every radical Islamic groups in the Middle East and North Africa. Although, some western authorities do not negotiate with hostage takers in any hostage crisis, there are some NGO or private donors in the West that would try to pay a large amount of ransom in order to free their hostages. In case of any hostage crisis, we usually focus on three important points as follows.
1- Who has been held hostage?
2- Who is/are the hostage takers?
3- What is the demand and motivation of the hostage takers?
These are the important points with regards to any hostage crisis, but not enough. In addition to these issues some other important measures should be seriously considered at home i.e. the country of origin of the one, who has been held hostage. In case of an innocent hostage like Alan Henning, for example, the British authority should perform an in-depth and broad research about the Islamic Charity organization that Mr. Henning worked with. In this respect, this Islamic Charity Organization, its members, contacts and assets should be analyzed in an appropriate and comprehensive manner. There might be a third person (i emphasize; there might be) within this charity organization located in the UK that directly or indirectly has close contact with hostage takers In Syria. Such a person might have been given clear information about the time of departure, arrival and location of Mr. Henning to the hostage takers in Syria. Such a person and alike, in sum, plays the role of a covert agent in the Western countries. Such a covert agent might work as a simple employee, a translator, a guide, a donor within these NGOs or charity organizations and give information to hostage taker in special parts of the Middle East and North Africa based on two monetary or ideological reasons. My argument in this particular case (the case of Mr. Henning) might not be 100% true, but the possibility of such a act is something, which neither be ignored nor underestimated.