Monday, January 29, 2018

Warning: The Next Battlefield Between Iran and Saudi-Led Coalition Might Be in Oman.

Possibly The next Battlefield somewhere in the future.

M. Sirani                         29.01.2018

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Declaring Jerusalem As the Capital of Israel is the First Step of A Bigger Plan; Relocating Palestinian People to Sinai Peninsula.


An old plan has resurfaced on the table of The USA, Israel, Egypt & Saudi Arabia. According to this secret deal, Palestinian people would be settled in Sinai Peninsula and Egypt would receive $84 billion dollars partly from Saudi Arabia, Israel & USA in return for this plan.
This plan would not solve the Israeli & Palestinian conflict in an effective, fundamental & sustainable manner. On the contrary, this plan, in case of further implementation, would create more chaos & tension across the Islamic countries.

Note: Antidote for this wrong plan at First Step: Declaring Independent State of Palestine and East Jerusalem as its Capital by the UN, Arab League or Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

M. Sirani                       09.12.2017  

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Would Israel Share Part of Jerusalem With Palestinian Authority- People At the End of the Possible Peace Deal as Trump's Speech Projects? (I Don't Think So).


In his speech today about Jerusalem, President Trump said: "We want an agreement that is a great deal for the Israelis and a great deal for the Palestinians. We are not taking a position of any final status issues including the specific boundaries of the Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem or the resolution of contested borders. Those questions are up to the parties involved" (Worldnews, 2017).

Following this speech some in the media have interpreted this paragraph of Trump's speech as an open hatch, which indicates that there is some possibility that Israel would share some part of Jerusalem with Palestinians at the end of a possible peace deal. This issue raises an important question as follows: Would Israel share some part of its officially recognized capital Jerusalem with Palestinian authority & people at the end of a possible peace deal in the future?

My answer to this question is a big NO. Some might wonder why? This is the story. If president Trump & current Israeli government wanted to truly & honestly offer such an opportunity to Palestinians somewhere in the future, Trump could explain his deep intention in this regard with better phrase. Instead of this paragraph noted above, Trump could simply say: I declare half of Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel and other half of Jerusalem as the official capital of Palestinian State, which would be officially recognized after the final peace deal with Israel. By a paragraph like this, Trump & Israeli government could show their trustworthy & honesty to the Palestinian authority & people and by this move they encourage Palestinians to participate the peace deal negotiations much better than before.

In my opinion, the main reason behind this paragraph is not facilitating an opportunity for Palestinian people & Israel would not share part of its capital Jerusalem with anybody else not now not in the future. The main reasons of Trump behind this paragraph are as follows:

A- Killing the time for continuation of a futile peace process.

B- Deceiving Palestinians, Arab States, etc to continue with a peace negotiations, hoping to get some part of Jerusalem at the end of a possible peace deal in the future, which would in reality not happen.

C- Unilaterally deceleration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is a clear violation of the international laws & the UN resolution. By using this paragraph and accordingly encouraging Palestinian to participate in the negotiations for a peace deal, the USA & Israel would try to undermine & mitigate the global condemnation & overall backlashes in different terms with regard to this illegal move that they did today.

D- This deceleration has already caused enormous anger among Muslim states & non-state actors around the world. Some of these states & non-state actors would try to retaliate in different terms in response to this move. An ongoing peace deal negotiations might prevent some states & non-state actors to perform some harsh & violently reaction against the USA & Israel.

These are the main reasons behind this part of Trump's speech. As i said in the beginning of this short note, the chance that Israel would voluntarily share some part of its capital with Palestinian people somewhere in the future is nearly impossible. If they wanted, they could have declared it today.

M. Sirani                       06.12.2017       


Sunday, December 3, 2017

Moving The U.S. Embassy To Jerusalem. What Might Be The Main Reasons Behind This Possible Move?


The overall negative consequences of this move in a chaotic & volatile region like the current Middle East are Chrystal clear & needless to explore. That's why, since 1995 that this "Jerusalem Embassy Act" was passed by the 104th Congress, none of the U.S. presidents executed this act. Considering this brief introduction, there are some rumors that Trump administration might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel & consequently moves the U.S. Embassy to this city. This issue raises an important questions as follows: What might be the main reasons behind this possible move?

Based on my knowledge about president Trump, the overall moves of his administration and some other ongoing events within the USA & the Middle East, i have come to the following possible reasons in this regard.

A- The First Possible Reason: Trump's Weaknesses: 
Contrary to what president Trump & some of his followers claim, D. Trump does not have a proper knowledge & understanding about foreign affairs & generally speaking how the foreign policy and the role of a super power like the USA at regional & global level should be. In addition to this weakness, D. Trump has another big problem and that is his attitude that he wants to govern the state the way that he has run his business. This attitude means that due to the fact that Trump is the boss or the president, he knows better than others and everybody around him should accept & follow his order no matter what. The combination of these two characteristics have caused many chaos, misunderstanding & mistakes performed by Trump administration around the world. In order to mitigate these weaknesses, D. Trump has different techniques. One of them is "spreading rumor about something that he might do or not do in the near future".
By spreading the rumor about some event that might happen or not happen in the near future, many politicians & pundits would react. D. Trump & his close allies go through all comments & critics & try to choose the best option & accordingly perform less mistakes. The current rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem might be partly due to this reason.
D. Trump uses this technique in another occasion and that is when he wants to impose his idea or opinion forcefully & indirectly on one of his cabinet members & advisers or he is not satisfied with them based on any reason whatsoever. In this respect, the case of replacement of S. R. Tillerson with M. Pompeo is a good example. The rumor in this regard, forced S. Tillerson to suddenly leave the State Department & go to the White House. We have seen such a trick in case of S. J. Sessions couple of months ago as well.

B- The Second Possible Reason: Good Cop-Bad Cop policy-Trump's Model: 
D. Trump and his hotshot son-in-law without any experience in foreign policy & foreign affairs have decided to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. This is not an easy task specially for these two gentlemen. They have probably hit the wall at the present time. That's why, D. Trump has spread the rumor in this regard and would try by using this leverage, would force the Palestinian authority & some in Arab states to accept whatever Trump administration dictates throughout the entire peace process. Or this move might be a some type of blackmail. As it appears the Gulf States have a plan to create An Arab NATO. By a rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, Trump wants to indirectly force the Arab States to buy all their necessary military weapons & equipment for this matter from the USA and not other powerful competitors such as the EU, China or Russia.
A type of invisible Coercion in all these cases mentioned above. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

C- The Third Possible Reason: Domestic Problem At Home: 
Whether anyone within Trump administration, close allies or campaign have intentionally or unintentionally coordinated or cooperated with Russian authority or some wealthy Russian individuals are unclear issue to me at least up until this moment. But one thing is clear for me & that is that the Russian finger prints (Governmental or non-governmental or both are unknown for me) in 2016 U.S. election are clearly visible. This allegation has caused & would cause huge problem for Trump administration in the future as well. In such a desperate situation, declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel might be a great help. The declaration in this regard would mobilize the entire powerful Israeli lobby behind D. Trump and accordingly would strengthen and empower his position in this internal battle. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

D- The Fourth Reason: Business:
There is an allegation against General Flynn that he wanted to secretly promote a plan to build some nuclear plants across the Middle East. This was a collective plan between American, Russian, French & Israeli companies. According to Wall Street Journal, "The plan was projected to generate $250 billion in revenue for U.S. companies".   
We all know Kushner's company is in a very difficult financial problem. The Building 666 in New York & the huge debt of this building that like Guillotine has stood above the neck of Kushners is known for the entire world. Considering these issues, there might be a very fat & beneficial business contract behind the scene. Therefore Trump administration & J. Kushner want to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel to benefit from such a economic deal, which some Jewish Israeili or American are possibly involved like the case of nuclear plants of General Flynn. This might one of the main reasons behind this possible move.

As i said from the beginning of this brief explanation, the overall negative consequences of this move whether in the peace process between Israeli & Palestinian authority or in the Middle East or generally speaking among 1.5 billion Muslims around the world are Chrystal clear. Some might claim that Trump would do this move in order to keep his promise during the election or empower the position of his favorite candidate in upcoming Alabama election. In response to these arguments i should say that there is no doubt that this move would cover these issues to some extent. But we should bear in mind that there have been numerous examples in the past year presidency that Trump has tried to broke some of his promises.
During the election, for example, Trump said he would not tough medicaid & medicare for poor & low income families. Moreover Trump said he would not deport the dreamers (DACA ACT). Furthermore he said, he would not deport illegal immigrants if they have not done any criminal activities. A simple review about Trump's resume in the past year shows that D. Trump has multiple times tried to break his promises in these regards & or at least undermine the legitimacy of these rules. When it comes to empowering the position of the Republican candidate in upcoming election in Alabama, Trump could perform some other moves with less backlash & negative consequences. Thus, these types of shallow arguments cannot justify such a move with such huge consequences specially at the time that Trump & his son-in-law are struggling to achieve a historical credit with regard to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. However, as far as i analyze this rumor, i don't see any other reason for such a wrong move at the present time; except one of the reasons mentioned above or the combination of some of them.

Note: Some in Israel are happy about this news that Trump might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This people don't know about the overall impact of this move, current situation of the Middle East & many other future events. Today is not 1948, nor is 1967 And the future events of the Middle East do not move in the direction of those GOLDEN YEARS. In short, if i was an Israeli citizen & loved my state, i wouldn't be happy about this move specially at this particular time based on many reasons.

M. Sirani                   03.12.2017


Sunday, November 12, 2017

An Antidote For Possible Plot in Lebanon (A Solution).


As an Iranian in exile, i'm totally against the Iranian Regime & its proxies. However, based on my analysis about overall consequences & side effects of this plan (Destabilization of Lebanon, South of Syria, etc etc), i have come to some reasonable conclusions as follows.
Based on my analysis, this plan not only do not mitigate & weaken the position of Iran & Hezbollah in both Syria & Lebanon, on the contrary, it would strengthen & empower them in the region. In addition, this plan, in terms of implementation, would cause a huge destruction, large number of collateral damages and hundreds of thousands or probably millions refugees & displaced people around the entire Middle East or maybe more in some parts of Africa as well.
Due to this analysis, i believe as an ordinary human being, this is my responsibility to prevent such a disaster as much as i can. Here below is one of my solutions for preventing such a disaster in the Middle East.

A well- organized & inclusive national rally in the entire Lebanon demanding Hariri's return to the country would to a large extent dismantle the possible plot in Lebanon. This rally should repeatedly continue until S. Hariri would return back to Lebanon & save the country from another useless, bloody & devastating war & civil war.

M. Sirani                        12.11.2017

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Warning: Those, Who Have Planned to Destabilize Lebanon Hoping to Defeat Hezbollah & Undermine Iran's Role in Lebanon, Should Not Once or Twice, But Also Multiple Times Reevaluate Their Plan in This Regard.


Undoubtedly, any attempt in this regard, would cause a broad destruction, couple of hundreds of thousands or probably millions displaced refugees and large numbers of collateral damages. But this attempt not only would not achieve its main objectives i.e. destroying Hezbollah & the influence of Iran; on the contrary would empower & strengthen the position of Iran & Hezbollah at home & abroad. Such an attempt, in addition, would undoubtedly change the face of the Middle East in the benefit of Iran.

Note: A quick review in this blog, clearly shows that I'm among those Iranians in exile, who strongly, reasonably & logically believe that the Iranian regime cannot, will not & shall not accept, tolerate and perform any tangible reform somewhere in the future based on its inherent & structural characteristics. Based on these special inherent & structural characteristics, A simple reform in the Iranian regime would cause the sudden & total collapse of this regime exactly like those "Perestroika & Glasnost" reforms of M. Gorbachev, which led to the total collapse of the Soviet Union & its bloc. As such, in my opinion, this regime should be overthrown without any doubt. But, based on my analysis about various factors with regards to this possible event, i can tell you by high level of certainty that such a plan would end up into a catastrophic fiasco & accordingly, the Iranian regime & its allies would be the final winners of this plot. My suggestion: reevaluate your plan in this regard not once or twice but also multiple times. Because this plan, in terms of implementation, would cost you a lot more than damaging the Iranian regime & its proxies. 

M. Sirani                        11.11.2017     

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Warning: Following the Blockade of Yemen, Houthis Might Paralyze the Ship Routes in the Gulf of Aden or Bab-El-Mandeb Strait By Their Missiles & Rockets.

As I Said in 2015, Yemen is A Quagmire Worse Than Afghanistan or Syria. The country is currently suffering from all kinds of disaster such as famine, lake of food, water, medicine & different types of diseases such as cholera. The recent imposed blockade puts the life of millions innocent people at serious risk. This horrific condition would force the Houthis to react in every possible manner they can. I have said this in 2015 & say it again: The Houthis can paralyze the ship routes in the Gulf of Aden, Bab-El-Mandeb Stait & the Red Sea by their missiles & Rockets. We should bear in mind that Bab-El-Mandeb Strait is nearly 30 km wide and is one of the most strategic routes in the world.
Once again, i repeat my previous statement: Yemen conflict would not be solved by military operation.

M. Sirani                          08.11.2017 

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Petro-Yuan Means The Beginning of the End of U.S. Dollar Supremacy.


China will introduce Petro-Yuan as early as the end of this year. This issue will undoubtedly hit the U.S. economy in various terms, forms & scales. In this respect, the U.S. stock market might highly likely be the first victim. The second victim might be U.S. based Cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin. These sectors have unrealistically expanded in the past couple of months.The bubble will explode sooner or later.

Note: We are on the verge of a huge development in economic & financial arena at global level; while today, President Trump asks Saudis to list Saudi Aramco on the New York Stock Exchange.
Saudi Arabia might choose Dual Listing. But the idea that Saudi Arabia put all its eggs in the basket of the USA (Only New York Stock Exchange) like before, is far from the reality. Because Saudis know time has changed; they know also that many other factors around the world have changed. In addition, we should bear in mind that China might force Saudi Arabia to trade the oil with Petro-Yuan. Should this happen, the U.S. economy will suffer a lot.

We are in fact, in the transitional phase of rise & fall of empires. 

M. Sirani                     04.11.2017

Yemeni's Defense Ministry states that "attack was conducted using a Yemeni-made long-range ballistic missile called the Burqan 2H".


If this claim is true, it means a lot. It means a major shift in the balance of power & a breakthrough in Yemeni conflict. This development is a serious game changer, if this claim is true. 

M. Sirani                 04.11.2017                   

Those GENIUSES, Who Thought I Was Joking in 2011, Are Now in 2017, Confused How to Deal With Yemeni Quagmire (I Refresh Your Memories).

For refreshing your memories, i suggest to read the following essay one more time with more precision & caution.

Essay: Iran should not get the nuclear bomb.


M. Sirani                    04.11.2017 

China Unveiled Its Magic Island-Maker (Long Term Plan).


As Russia Today news agency (RT) claims the vessel can "smash underwater rocks and then suck out sand, water, and mud, and transfer the substance up to 15 kilometers away. It can dredge up to 6,000 cubic meters (around two and half Olympic swimming pools) an hour from a depth of up to 35 meters"(Rt, 2017).

This vessel is a revolutionary monster & along with Floating Nuclear Power Plant constructed by China (And Russia as well), show that China has a very long term plan in many fronts including building various artificial islands across the globe. We should not be Einstein to predict some of the consequences & overall side effects of this move in different terms, forms & scales in the future.

M. Sirani                    04.11.2017

Reference: Magic Island-Maker (2017) in:

Friday, November 3, 2017

Does China Want to Build A Naval Base in Rakhine or A New Artificial Island Close to Rakhine Province in Myanmar At the Cost of 1 Million Innocent Rohingya people?


I don't have access to comprehensive & sensitive data. But my logic tells me that expelling couple of hundreds thousands Rohingya people in a very short period of time is a very big responsibility for every state including Myanmar. Myanmar authority has taken the chance to ruin its reputation in exchange for a very big & juicy project. This might be one of the main reasons of this horrific humanitarian disaster, as Chinese UN envoy invites the international community to be patient with regard to the horrific case of nearly 1 million displaced Rohingya people.

M. Sirani                          3.11.2017

Thursday, October 26, 2017

The Reflection of Thucydides's Peloponnesian War in Current Iraqi Kurdistan.


Kurdish authority has told Iraqi GOV that it is freezing the referendum & independence movement & is ready to negotiate with Baghdad. In response to this call, H. Al- Ebadi in Tehran has said that the Kurds should totally cancel referendum & independence and comply with country's constitution.

The demand of H. Al-Ebadi has put Barzani in a very difficult position with only two limited options as follows.

Option A- Barzani  accepts Ebadi's demand & fully retreat. By this move, Barzani will commit political suicide and will ruin its reputation among all Kurds.

Option B: Barzani rejects Ebadi's demand & continues with his demand for Kurdistan. By choosing this move, Kurdistan will face a total war from every angles.

The whole this event is similar to some part of Peloponnesian War of Thucydides. ",,,, Obey our demand or face a devastating defeat,,,,," or in Qasem Soleimani's words to PUK leadership:

“Withdraw or risk losing Tehran as a strategic ally. Abadi has all the regional powers and the West behind him and nothing will stop him from forcing you to return back to the mountains if he decides so,”. 

Note: The chance that Barzani will remain in Iraq is very low. Iran & Iraqi GOV will not let him to have a pleasant future In Iraq. He might flee to Israel or one of the western countries for the rest of his life. Wrong move at wrong time at wrong place. 

M. Sirani                            26.10.2017 

The Primary Goals of Iran & Iraqi Gov in Kurdistan.

Briefly: By a single miscalculated move, Barzani destroyed what the Kurds had achieved throughout some decades struggle. There is some probability that Barzani would flee to either Israel or one of the western countries. Iran & Iraqi Gov would no let him to have a pleasant future in Iraq. 

It seems Iraqi Gov & Iran are currently pursuing three goals in Iraqi Kurdistan. These goals are:

A- Removing Barzani from the power & replacing him with a trustworthy person. In this respect, Talibani's son has a good chance.

B- Paralyzing economic Independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Gov & Iran would try to recapture the control of all oil & gas fields in Kurdistan & put an end to couple of years dispute between Iraqi central government and Kurdish authority.

C- Recapturing the border lines between Iraqi Kurdistan & Syria- Turkey in order to:  A- impose an idea that Iraqi Kurdistan is located within Iraq; it is an inseparable part of Iraq territory & B- Have full control about import & export to & from Kurdistan.

This policy would be applied to Kurdistan area in Syria as well; maybe not now, but it will be. In this respect, the four states of Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey would coordinate & cooperate with each other perfectly.

Note: The U.S. plan that Syrian Kurds would capture oil field in Syria; using its income; consequently weakening Assad's regime; etc etc, will hit the wall.

As i have repeatedly said this before: The U.S. plan to create a semi-federalism political system in Syria (Kurds in North, Shiite people in the Middle along with Assad's supporters & Sunnis in the South/ Weakening Assad's regime/ Creating safe/buffer-zone in the South of Syria for Israel, etc etc-  Kissinger's proposal) does not work in Syria based on many reasons. In addition, Iran would not allow such a plan would be implemented.

M. Sirani              26.10.2017

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Warning: The U.S. Republican Party Is In A Very Critical Position.


I was among those few people, who predicted a Republican would be the president (in 2014-2015) and anticipated that D. Trump would become the president (2016) (Various short notes in this blog confirm my statement in this regard).

Based on what i have observed about Trump administration, the policies and the attitude of president Trump himself in the past 10 months, i can argue that the Republican Party is in a very critical position and is left with two options as follows.

A- Following Trump administration's statements & policies with closed eyes without any objection: In this way, the Republican Party would ruin its reputation and would damage the USA in different terms.

B- Standing up against wrong policies & statements of president Trump & his administration: By choosing this option, the Republican Party might be able to save the USA & the Republican Party in different terms.

Note: The biggest problem of president Trump: This is a fact that D. Trump is not an expert in many issues for example International Relations or Micro-Macroeconomics like many other presidents or prime ministers around the world. I don't blame him in this regard. He is expert in another area, which i'm not. The point is that most of the leaders around the world pay attention to their advisers in many areas. But president Trump not. He wants to run the united State & the rest of the world in a way that he was running his business empire. This is a very dangerous trend. This issue would highly likely cause a huge problem at domestic as well as foreign affairs not only for the USA and American people but also for the rest of the world. Due to the fact that the USA is a super power and every move of the USA would impact the remote areas around the world.

President Trump should understand this basic fact: Running a state and running a business empire have many similarities; at the same time there are huge differences between these two concepts. A single mistake in this regard would be catastrophic for many.  I have posted the following note multiple times for President Trump on Twitter:
"Running a state is not like running a business empire. They have some similarities. But they have huge differences). 

M. Sirani         24.10.2017

Thursday, September 21, 2017

The Kurdish Referendum In Iraq Means the Starting Point For a Long Term Multidimensional Conflicts in Iraq & Probably in Syria As Well.


This event will unify the four political systems in Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey against all Kurds in the region. In other words, someone like President Erdogan will shake hand to his former enemy Bashar Assad to crush the Kurds. This event might highly likely force Turkey to deploy more troops to Iraq & Syria; a type of military invasion, depends on the scale of tension; if it is needed. This event, in addition, will empower the position of Iran & Russia and on the contrary will weaken the position of NATO in the region. Simply, because it will increase the level of cooperation between Turkey and the East.

Note: Iraq & probably Syria will highly likely become clear examples of  "Hobbesian Society: The war of all against all"; a multidimensional conflict. 

M. Sirani             21.09.2017

Monday, September 18, 2017

Warning: Like A Black Hole, A Military Confrontation With North Korea Will Suck Many Countries Into the Conflict.


By this, i mean in addition to the USA, South Korea, Japan & North Korea, many other countries will undoubtedly & inevitably involve in such a conflict. If we evaluate various aspects of this conflict, we will come to the conclusion that there are many similar factors between the First World War & a possible war with North Korea.

M. Sirani           18.09.2017 

Sunday, September 10, 2017

M. Saakashvili Entered Ukraine. Is This A Starting Point For A Coup Or Beginning A New Civil War in the Western Part of Ukraine?


This is a fact that without some external & internal supporters, M. Saakashvili couldn't & didn't go to Ukraine. Whether this is a temporary event like an attempt for coup to remove P. Poroshenko from the power or a starting point of a long term event like a new civil war in the Western part of Ukraine are hard to predict at this stage. But there is something clear and that is that Ukraine will highly likely experience a series of internal chaos & instability in the next coming days, weeks & possibly months. The emergence of such an event along with today's event indicate a simple fact that current political system in Ukraine has a very shaky & vulnerable foundation. To put it simply, the political system in Ukraine needs some fundamental & constructive reform & adjustment. Otherwise, the instability & chaos in Ukraine will hit the EU & NATO in various terms, forms & scales based on numerous reasons in the future.

Note: I can guess, who is/are the possible external actor/s and what they possibly are pursuing in this attempt. But i don't have any credible & reliable evidence to underpin my argument in this regard. I leave this issue aside. Because, I don't like my short note would be labeled with "Conspiracy Theory".   

M. Sirani                         10.09.2017

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Warning: A Military Confrontation With North Korea:


When a political system is unable to deal with some challenges at home, a war with a foreign adversary would become a tasty option & scapegoat.
I warn you about any military confrontation with North Korea. Such an event will be the most horrific, devastating & destructive historical event since the Second World War in every possible terms for many countries around the world including the USA.
In case of such an event the USA might militarily win the war. But the overall negative consequences of such a war will deeply damage the USA in many fronts. Among the consequences of such a war three events are inevitable.

A- Due to massive destruction & collateral damages, the ordinary people in South Korea & Japan will undoubtedly force their political systems to shut down all U.S. bases and demand the total withdrawal of U.S. troops from their countries.

B- Following this horrific event, Japan and South Korea will develop their own nuclear weapons.

C- The U.S. global supremacy, which has been built based on some victories in the Second World War & Cold War era will be badly crushed for ever following this war. This simply means the beginning of the end of supremacy & domination of the USA in many fronts at regional & global level.

In short, the occurrence of such a disastrous war, many issues around the world at global and regional level will change in an extreme and sudden manner. Most of these changes will not be pleasant for USA & some of its close allies. To put it simply, we will enter a totally new era in many fronts.

Note: What i explored above is just a scratch about this event. The overall negative consequences of such an event in different terms at regional and global level are much deeper & broader. 

M. Sirani                      05.09.2017 

Friday, August 11, 2017

The Chance that President Trump Will Allow Iran Reach the Untouchable Position of North Korea in Terms of Nuclear Weapon & Ballistic Missile Program, is Very Low. In This Respect, the JCPOA is A Primary and Important Barrier.

The U.S. Special Forces in Libya (Another Quagmire, due to the Fact that the USA Does Not Have a Clear, Effective & Coherent Strategy With Regards to Many Issues in the Region).

How The Current Tension With North Korea Might Change The Reaction of Trump Administration With Regards to Iran & The JCPOA? (A Possibly Dangerous Situation).

Briefly: (This short note has been written in 15 min without editing, etc etc).

This is a fact that the recent nuclear and ballistic missile activities along with planning to launch some missile toward Guam (A U.S. Territory) by North Korea have put the Trump administration in a very critical position. According to some analysis, North Korea has so far obtained between 50-60 nuclear bombs and its recent activities show that the country has had a rapid progress on its ballistic missile program as well. To put it simply, North Korea has achieved a capability to hit many places in the USA by its nuclear-ballistic missiles. This issue has put the USA in a very critical situation. The Trump administration cannot simply ignore the recent activities and the threat of North Korea. At the same time, trying to solve this complicated issue through a type of preemptive strike could be costly in different terms not only for the USA and North Korea, but also for some other countries in the South East Asia due to the nuclear & ballistic missile capability of both the USA & North Korea.

Whether the USA & North Korea would ease the tension and solve this conflict through diplomacy or the rhetoric wars between Washington & Pyongyang would end up into a devastating military confrontation are beyond the scope of this short writing. But this tension would lead us to another important issue and that is the JCPOA; the nuclear deal with Iran.

As we all know, whether during the presidential race or his presidency, Donald. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the JCPOA is the worst deal ever that the USA has made. In addition, President Trump has stated in many occasions that he would like to tear up the deal. The recent tension with North Korea and its complicated details, would undoubtedly put the Trump administration in another complicated position. The Trump administration would highly likely try to have a simple comparison between current North Korea and Iran. The administration might highly likely come to the following conclusions:
North Korea has nuclear bomb & ballistic missiles. Military strike against North Korea is dangerous, costly and cannot fundamentally change anything with regards to nuclear & ballistic missile capability of North Korea. North Korea has passed the red line for ever in this respect.

But, what about Iran? Apparently Iran has not obtained nuclear bomb yet. In addition, the ballistic missile program of Iran has not progressed as North Korean to cause a serious threat for the USA. But, if the time passes, Iran might highly likely pass the red line the same as North Korea after couple months or years. In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA cannot curb or counter Iran.
Based on this calculation, the Trump administration might highly likely tear up the JCPOA or launch a preemptive strike against Iran to prevent the country to reach the untouchable position of North Korea.

In short, the current tension with North Korea would undoubtedly impact the JCPOA and the policy of the Trump administration toward Iran in the near future.

M. Sirani                                11.08.2017