Monday, July 17, 2017

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization?

Briefly:

Personally, i believe this is a move, which the USA and its close allies should have done it long time ago.

BUT, due to the fact that The USA, some powerful states within the EU along with some powerful Arab states do not have a clear, effective and coherent strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other issues in the Middle East, i can say that such a move not only would not counter and curb the Iranian regime in an effective and powerful manner, but also it would create additional tension and conflict across the region. To put it simply, the negative consequences of such a move would be more than its benefit for the USA & its allies in the region at the present time.


Note: Without a clear strategy & a short and long term plan, you cannot cause any harm to the Iranian regime by such reactionary moves. 38 or 39 years ago, you could; but now now.  



M. Sirani                          17.07.2017

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

China's First Overseas Military Base in Djibouti. This is Just the Beginning.

Briefly:

The plan for this military base started in 2015 and as the media claim, China is deploying its troops to Djibouti now. Military base of China in Djibouti would empower the Geo-Political position of China, Russia and Iran with regards to many events & areas in the Middle East and some part of Africa.This is the first overseas military base of China, but it would not be the last one. In the next couple of years, we will highly likely witness more Chinese military base alongside the Belt & Road Initiative of China.

Note: When it comes to the Soft Power & Economic expansion, China has nearly reached its peak. Now is the time for military expansion to preserve the Soft Power & Economic achievements.
I have said this before and say it again: If many factors remain the same as they are today, in the next couple of years, we will experience a bipolar world; wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China (And its close allies) and B-Germany (And its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, China and Germany will surpass & bypass the USA & UK in different terms & scales. Such an issue has already been imposed on the UK following the Brexit.


M. Sirani                           12.07.2017

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Programs of North Korea.

Briefly:
 I wish the current U.S.  decision makers & high ranking politicians understand a fact that: the world has changed.

Without an effective & clear strategy with regards to Russia (And tension in Ukraine), China & many issues in the Middle East (for example Syria, Iran) the USA cannot achieve an effective, fundamental & sustainable solution with regard to North Korea.


Note: The USA needs some fundamental changes (in some areas) and adjustment (in some) in its foreign policy. 



M. Sirani                     05.07.2017 

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Upcoming G20 Summit in Hamburg (2017) Will Not Be A Pleasant Event for the USA. The Result of This Summit Will Impact the U.S. Economy.

Unless Trump administration would change & adjust some of its policies and method of implementation of its policies (Which personally, i don't think it would happen):


M. Sirani                      01.07.2017

GOP Healthcare Bill (The USA); A Big Mistake.

Briefly:

As it appears, the U.S. Republican Party has not been able to introduce a more comprehensive and better health care bill than Obamacare after nearly 8 years. However, if some rumors, which say GOP Health care bill will cut the medicaid and health care for couple of millions low income American people in the next coming years, are true, i can give you 1000% guarantee that D. Trump will not win the second presidential race in 2020.


M. Sirani                          01.07.2017   

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Federalism For Syria Means An Endless Conflict (The Era that Two Person Like Sykes & Picot Sit Somewhere and With the Help of A Ruler Divide the Middle East is OVER; WAKE UP).

Briefly:

As it appears the USA and some of U.S. allies are trying to establish some type of Federal political system in Syria. Creating a safe zone in Northern part of Syria for Kurds and recent training & supporting the Syrian rebels in the South (Syrian border with Jordan) could be understood in this respect. By these moves, as it appears the USA would try to establish a type of Federal political system consisted of three parts in Syria.

1- The Northern part under the command of the Syrian Kurds,

2- The Middle part under the command of Bashar Assad, which includes Shitte, Alawites and Assad's supporters.

3- The Southern part under the command of Sunni people & mainly for Sunni people.

By implementing this plan, the USA would mainly try to:

A- Weaken the central government of Bashar Assad.

B- Reduce the influence of Russia & Iran in Syria.

C- Accordingly weakening the position of Hezbollah in Syria and to some extent in Lebanon, and

D- Create a so-called safe zone for Israel in the Southern part of Syria.  

If my assumption in this regard is correct, Trump administration is trying to pursue H. Kissinger's proposal as a solution for Syrian civil war. Those, who are interested in this concept, can read Kissinger's proposal in his article entitled "A path Out of the Middle East Collapse" published on 16.10.2015. However,
based on many reasons and theoretical concepts such as Hobbsian "Formation of State-Government" and Habermasian "Communicative Rationality" i can clearly say that the idea of Federalism for Syria is just a joke; does not function in Syria; it cannot create peace and stability in Syria. On the contrary, this plan, in case of fully implementation, not only would create an endless civil war within Syria but also intensify the tension between Iraqi central government & Iraqi Kurdistan and accordingly would force Turkey to perform some military action against Kurds in both Iraq & Syria. This plan, in addition, would jeopardize the safety & security of Israel in the long term.

However, if some actors are interested to weaken the central government (Assad's regime) and accordingly create an endless civil war & conflict within Syria in order to achieve & preserve some economic & Geo-Strategic interests in the long term, the idea of Federalism in Syria is a perfect proposal. Current disastrous political system in Iraq and continuous tension between Iraqi central government and semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan confirms my explanation in this regard to some extent.

 M. Sirani                               29.06.2017 


Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The Emergence of A New Bipolar World in the Next 10-15 Years; Germany & China Will Surpass & Sideline the USA.

Briefly:

If many factors remain as they are today, we will highly likely observe a bipolar world in the next 10-15 years (more or less), wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China and its close allies, B- the EU (mainly Germany and its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, these two major powers (Camps) will surpass & sideline the USA & UK in many areas.

Note: Many factors & actors have sidelined the UK already. In this respect, the USA also is not in a very good shape, based on what i have observed in the last 5 months presidency of Mr. Trump. My prediction in this regard will highly likely come true; unless some major changes will happen in the USA or the EU or China, for example a major shift in foreign policy of the USA or collapse of the EU & EURO or a real revolution in China.



M. Sirani                      27.06.2017 

The USA Threatens Syria, Says: Assad is Planing Chemical Weapon Attack (Warning: Don't Think About Broad Military Intervention in Syria).

Briefly:

I have repeatedly said this before and say it again:
Any military intervention in Syria would be devastating for the USA and its regional allies due to many reasons including the fact that the U.S. , EU and Arab states do not have clear & coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East & Africa.


M. Sirani                        27.05.2017


Monday, June 26, 2017

Making An Israel-Palestine Peace Deal is Not Like Buying or Selling An Skyscraper In Manhattan. Such An Important Task Requires Real Expertise; Real Qualification.

Briefly:

There are many, many, many differences between the art of the deal in selling & buying apartment-skyscraper and International Relations-International Politics. If these two subjects were the same every real state expert could have become a Minister of Foreign Affairs.

I think my short message is Chrystal clear.


M. Sirani                     26.06.2017

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Nobody Takes Your Empty Words Seriously.

Briefly:

As long as you don't have clear, reliable and coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East:

A- The Iranian Regime beats the hell out of all of you in the region and later in Africa;
B- Various types of Radical Islamic Groups will come and go;
C- Nobody takes your empty words seriously.


M. Sirani              25.06.2017

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Opening The "Liberal Mosques" in Germany & Norway Reminds Me To One of The Statements of A. Einstein.

Briefly:

Those Muslims or Non-Muslims, who have designed the trend of "Liberal Mosque" doesn't have a clue about:

A- Islam

B- Historical Background of Islam

C- Historical Background of Christianity, reforms in Christianity and various types of factors, which the combination of all of them forced some parts of the Christianity to accept the reforms.

Based on brief explanation noted above, i will anticipate with high probability that the fabricated trend of so-called "Liberal Mosque" does not solve anything at all with regards to emergence and rise of various Radical Islamic Terrorist Group or Islamic Terrorism Activity neither in the Western countries, nor in the Middle East, nor in Asia or Africa. This fabricated trend, on the contrary, will backfire & provoke many Muslims around the world; and accordingly will cause many additional tensions and conflicts.


Note: A. Einstein once said: "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity" (This is the only thing i can say further with regard to development of the so-called "Liberal Mosque"). These geniuses have deliberately created some clear Terror Target for various Islamic Terrorists by their own hands.   



M. Sirani                                  21.06.2017 


A Sustainable Israeli & Palestinian Peace Deal; Sweet Dreams.

Briefly:

As long as the USA, the powerful EU states and Arab countries do not have clear, effective & coherent strategies with regards to many events including A- Iran, B- Political Islam, C- Emergence and rise of various radical Islamic Terrorist groups in Asia, The Middle East and Africa, the idea of a sustainable & long term peace deal between Israel and Palestine is just a joke. Those novice hotshots should firstly work on a solid foundation, then start to build a skyscraper on the top of it.

Note: Israeli politicians should be insane to fall in such a trap. In addition, as long as you are confused, the Iranian regime is the main winner in the Middle East & later in Africa. 


M. Sirani                         21.06.2017          

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Any Military Intervention in Syria

Briefly:
Any military intervention in Syria will end up in

A- Total destruction of Syria, collateral damages & influx of refugees.

B- Broad war & proxy wars in multiple battlefields across the Middle East & possibly beyond the Middle East (E.g Ukraine).

In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA & its allies will lose based on many reasons including the fact that current U.S. administration does not have a clear strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other ongoing events in the Middle East. Thus, avoid adventurous & miscalculated move in Syria.


M. Sirani                    20.06.2017  

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Be Prepared for More Intensified Tension in Syria & Most Parts of the Middle East in The Next Coming Months & Probably Years.

Briefly:

Due to the fact that the USA does not have some clear & effective strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East, we should highly likely expect intensification of tension in various parts of the Middle East in the next coming months & probably years.


M. Sirani         18.06.2017

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

When It Comes to the Threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism in both Short & Long Terms, All Western Countries (The EU+The USA Without Any Exception) Are in a Very Deep Shit.

Briefly:

All the western countries are plunging in a very deep serious shit in the short & long term, when it comes to the threat of Radical Islamic Terrorism; due to the lack of an effective and robust strategy.

Note: The citizens of all western countries will suffer a lot in this matter in both short & long term thanks to their incompetent & corrupt politicians and pundits.

M. Sirani                                24.05.2017

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Warning: Islamic Terrorist Activities Have Entered Into A More Dangerous & Critical New Phase of "Suicide Bombing" Within The Western Countries.

Briefly:

Needless to explore the scale & scope of threat in this new development, thanks to bunch of corrupt & incompetent kids, who play the role of high ranking politicians & decision makers.


M. Sirani    23.05.2017 

Monday, May 22, 2017

Those Incompetent & Corrupt Kids (Some Politicians+ Pundits), Who Have Led US Into This Disaster, Want to Convince Us About War on Terror (Forget The War on Terror; Resign & Get Lost).

Bunch of incompetent and corrupt kids, who do not have the credible qualification to run a dog, but have occupied various high ranking political positions. All of them should Resign & get lost.


M. Sirani                   23.05.2017

The Tragic Terrorist Attack in Manchester: Bunch of Corrupt Kids, Who Call Themselves "Politicians or Think Tanks (Ding Dang) Should Read My Prediction in 2013.

Here below is part of my essay entitled: An assessment about the current civil war in Syria. This essay was written on August, 2013. Some viewers might be interested to go through some of my predictions in that time about the consequences of the Syrian civil war; some predictions that we are dealing with them currently in Iraq, Syria itself, Lebanon and lone wolf attacks in the western countries, etc. 



M. Sirani                        01.11.2014




7- Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War:
Whether we are supporting Bashar Assad or its opponents or are neutral, we should pay attention to some of the consequences of the Syrian civil war. Analyzing these consequences is very important, because some of them might occur beyond the Syrian geographical territory within the country that we live in. Some of these consequences are briefly as follows.
1- The first and important issue is the large number of human casualties and near-total destruction of the country’s infrastructure. We should not be genius to anticipate that this issue would be devastating for Syria, the Syrian people and the neighboring countries for some decades to come.

2- The second issue is about the overall effect of the civil war on the life of the Syrian people. This issue has caused that more than 1.6 million people have fled Syria and taken refuge abroad in some countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and some North African countries. We should bear in mind that we are talking about more than 500,000 Syrian refugees in a country such as Lebanon with a population size of 4.2 million, or nearly 500,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan with a population size of almost 6 million people, etc. The large numbers of the Syrian refugees are the huge burden on the shoulders of all these states, the international organizations as well as NGOs. In the long term, this issue would cause many problems in different arenas including security for all these countries. As an example, asylum seekers and refuges are the most vulnerable groups around the world; because, in most cases they don not have proper access to their basic needs and rights. As such, some members of this vulnerable group would become the easiest preys for different criminal organizations as well as Jihadist groups. This issue is also applicable for some of the Syrian refugees in the Middle East. Given the fact that most of these countries mentioned above do not have a powerful, stable and reliable political system and the Syrian civil war has entered in the new phase of a conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups, we can anticipate that the presence of large numbers of the Syrian refugees would threaten the peace, stability and security of some countries in the Middle East in the long term.
There is also another important issue with regard to the Syrian refugees. What these refugees would do, if Assad’s regime would manage to survive this civil war? Given the fact that some of these refugees, themselves or their relatives are fighting against Assad’s regime, would they dare to return to Syria in the future? Who / which powerful international entity would be able to provide and maintain their security in Syria under the rule of Bashar Assad? On the contrary, if Assad’s regime would collapse somewhere in the future, who, or which powerful entity would be able to provide and maintain security for those Shiite or Alawites people, who have supported Bashar Assad or neutrally have behaved during this conflict?

3- The overall presence of Hezbollah in this conflict and increasing numbers of conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups in different countries in the region illustrate the fact that eventually, the Syrian civil war would spread to some other neighboring countries in the Middle East. In this respect, the two countries of Lebanon and Iraq are the most vulnerable states.

4- The Syrian civil war has facilitated the best environment in terms of training, access to different facilities such as money, weapon, training and network building for all Jihadists around the world. This chaotic environment functions like an academic institute for all Islamic fundamentalists including novice Jihadists, who enter Syria legally or illegally from different borderlines. After a while, these novice Jihadists would be expert in different military tactics and strategic matters such as using different weapons - explosive materials, organizing, surviving in harsh and difficult circumstances, network building, etc. The important and tricky point is the time that these jihadists would decide to return to their countries of origin, whether is somewhere in the Middle East or the EU or some other countries around the world. In this respect, we can anticipate that each of these jihadists would function as an ambassador of terror and would be able to organize and establish a terror cell in his /her country of origin.

5- This is the fact that the Kurdish people has been one of the most marginalized and deprived groups in Syria. The Syrian Kurds live mostly in the northern part of Syria along the southern border of Turkey and partly the northern border of Iraq. During the chaotic atmosphere of the civil war, the Syrian Kurds might decide to establish an either autonomous or a Kurdish self-regulated region in the northern part of Syria. This issue would threaten the sovereignty of Syria, Turkey, and Iraq. As a result, it would create extra instability and tension in the region.

6- We should bear in mind that some of these consequences, inevitability, would also affect the Israeli–Palestinian peace process to some degree.
All mentioned above, indicates the fact that the consequences of the Syrian civil war from different angles and to some degrees would be devastating not just for the Syrian people or the country of Syria, but also for all of us, no matter whom we are or where we live.


M. Sirani                      August 2013
         

Friday, May 19, 2017

The Presidential Election in Iran: Rouhani or Raisi?

Briefly:

There is high probability that Rouhani will be elected for the second term. There is some small chance for Raisi. However, no matter, which one of these candidates would become the next president, we should bear in mind that:

A- Different evidences indicate the fact that Both Rouhani & Raisi have close ties with the Supreme Leader Khamenei.

B- As the special representatives of the Supreme Leader, both Rouhani & Raisi have been appointed by Ayatollah Khamenei for some important entities within the Islamic Regime.

C- In this presidential race, Rouhani has more chance to win. However, no matter, Rouhani or Raisi would win the election, the entire policies of the Islamic Regime whether at domestic or foreign affairs will remain the same as before.


M. Sirani                       19.05.2017

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

PM May Calls For Early Election=====>The UK is Not In a Good Shape.

Briefly:

Lack of proper qualification, knowledge and expertise. They have started with Brexit; but are confused what they should do from now on; or where they should go!!!!!!


Note: When some people do not have proper qualification, knowledge and expertise would become responsible for a big task,,,,,,, (One of the reasons for an empire to fall). 



M. Sirani             18.04.2017

Friday, April 7, 2017

The First Possible Consequences of Military Strike on Syria.

Briefly:

This apparently One Off military strike on Syria would have many consequences in short & long term beyond the geographical territory of Syria. One of the first possible consequences of this move might be the notion that both Iran & Russia would deploy more military troops and equipment into Syria probably in the next couple of hours & days.
The impact of such a move in terms of Syrian rebels is clear; needless to explore it.

Note: As i said in my previous short note, this One Off military strike will intensify the tension not only within Syria but also in some other areas across the Middle East or probably beyond.


M. Sirani                 07.04.2017

The USA Launched Military Strike on Syria. This Military Strike Would Intensify the Tension in Many Areas.

Briefly:

The USA launched Tomahawk Missile strike on Syrian airfield in retaliation to the recent chemical attack in Idlib area. This event raises three important questions as follows.

The Question 1- Did the Syrian air force drop chemical bomb in Idlib? This is a fact that Assad's regime has treated its opponents in a very cruel and inhuman manner in the last couple pf years. In this respect, the Syrian regime has used chemical weapon against its own people in various occasions in the past. But the idea that Assad's regime dropped chemical bomb (Sarin Gas) in Idlib is something hard to believe, based on many reasons mainly:

1-A: The first issue is the recent victories of the Syrian government. The Syrian government has achieved some magnificent victories in the past couple of months. Among these victories recapturing the city of Aleppo (The capital of Syrian rebels since 2012) could be mentioned. These series of victories indicate a fact that the Syrian regime has the upper hand in comparison with the Syrian rebels. From this we can assume that the Syrian regime has not been in a very critical position that would be forced to use chemical weapon in Idlib to save itself from the rebels.

2-A: The second issue which, might save the Syrian government from this allegation is the recent statements of some high ranking members of Trump administration. In the past couple of days, The United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both stated that the USA would not pursue "Assad Must Go" policy anymore; in order words the first & important priority for the USA is defeating and eradicating the ISIS; not changing the current Syrian government. These statements along with various statements of President Trump in the past were pleasant news for Bashar Assad in a way that Bashar Assad himself in some interview stated that he was ready to cooperate with president Trump in war against ISIS. Considering these positive statements, it is hard to believe that Assad's regime has used chemical weapon in Idlib; simply because the use of chemical weapon would have ruined all those positive statements of U.S. officials.

3-A- The third issue is the mentality of president Trump. Everybody, who have a little bit knowledge and have followed president Trump's statements and actions know one important thing that president Trump is a very serious person. He is not one of those politicians full of just empty words.

Based on brief details mentioned above, the chance that the Syrian forces have dropped chemical bomb in Idlib is very low, in my opinion.

The Question 2- Was this strike one time military strike or would continue?
Trump administration has stated that this military strike was a type of punishment with regard to the recent chemical attack in Idlib. From this we can assume that this might be a one time military operation. In this case, we face another question as follows.
Various groups and organizations in Syria including ISIS or Al-Nusrah front have access to various types of weapons and ammunition including chemical weapons due to 6 years civil war in the country. What would happen if in the next couple of days some of these groups e.g. ISIS launch a chemical mortar and target a Syrian rebel group? What would Trump administration do in such a hypothetical scenario? Would Trump administration launch another military strike against the Syrian government again? (To be honest, the recent military strike would pave the way towards such an operation in the future).

In short, This military strike does not change the Syrian civil war in a very effective and sustainable manner. This operation would on the contrary, pave the way for various groups to use this tactic and provoke the USA to perform more military strike against Assad's regime. Practicing such a tactic, if continues, would finally drag Trump administration into the Syrian civil war and direct military confrontation with Russia, Iran and China at the end of the road. Should this happen, we would witness a broad battlefield beyond the geographical territory of Syria & the Middle East. In such a hypothetical scenario we would observe many changes not only in the Middle East but also in Baltic area. Unfortunately, the results of these events would not be pleasant for neither the USA nor for Arab countries based on many reasons particularly the notion that as it appears the USA & its allies do not have a clear strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East.


Note: Trump administration could use this chemical attack event in a much better manner and get much better results. The lack of clear strategy would lead to disaster. 

M. Sirani                        07.05.2017