Monday, February 13, 2017

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization Means Occurrence of Many Unpredictable Events Across the Middle East.

Briefly:

Such a move would have many consequences in different terms. One of the side effects of such a move would be a broad proxy war between U.S. forces and the Iranian Regime forces and its affiliates across the entire Middle East, e.g. in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. Such a move would forcefully change the balance of power in many areas across the Middle East.


Note: If the USA does not have a clear, effective & reliable strategy with regards to many events in the Middle East, for example how to eradicate radical Islamic Terrorism or how to deal with the civil wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and how to deal with the Iranian Regime, the designating IRGC as a terrorist organization would develop many backlashes and would become counterproductive at the end of the road. This is a very BIG MOVE. 


M. Sirani                13.02.2017  

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

A Direct Military Confrontation Between Iran And Trump Administration? There is Highly Likely, We Will Observe Such An Event Somewhere in the Future.

Briefly:

There is high probability that Iran and Trump administration will face a direct military confrontation somewhere in the future. Such a clash might happen somewhere in the Gulf of Aden, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, the Persian Gulf of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether this military confrontation starts in Yemen, or Syria or any other areas mentioned above is not important. The important point is the notion that the military conflict will highly likely spread to all areas mentioned above, if both or one side will not react in a smart and professional manner. One thing is clear to me and that is that there are tough days ahead of all of us in this regard.


M. Sirani                           08.02.2017

Monday, January 9, 2017

Dreaming About Unified Cyprus? Read Some of My Previous Short Notes in This Regard.

Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017




Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).




Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 


Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.
2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.
3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.
4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).


Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 


M. Sirani                24.11.2016


2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  



3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 


Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

As Long As the Tension Between Turkey and Obama Administration- Some EU Countries Has Not Been Solved, The Unification of Cyprus Would Highly Likely Remain A Dream.

Briefly:

Turkey is upset from chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration & some EU countries. Thus the chance for a unified Cyprus is very low or i might say is nearly impossible in the near future.


M. Sirani                        09.01.2017

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Obama Admin Ignored My Proposal in Jan, 2014. Putin Used it in Dec, 2016 And Established A Nationwide Ceasefire in Syria (KIDS Do Not Pay Attention).


Here below is a copy of my short note in this regard (Putin checkmates your from every angles; because you don't have enough knowledge & qualification; because you don't pay attention to a reasonable proposal from an outsider like me. Thus, You "Geniuses" deserve to be beaten).

M. Sirani                    07.01.2017

                  Bashar Asad's Latest Statement.



The United Nations and the Western countries are hoping that the coming Geneva II peace conference would pave the way towards a political transition in Syria. Different evidences, however, show that not all the internal and external actors involved in this conflict, have the same expectation and perception in this matter. Among these, Bashar Asad's recent statement could be mentioned. Last night, the Syrian State TV aired the latest Bashar Asad's statement with regards to Geneva II Peace Conference. In this TV program, Asad was quoted as telling that:

"if we wanted to give up, we would have done so at the very beginning. We are on guard for our country. This issue is not up for discussion"(Dailystar, 2014).

Another example is the Islamic Regime's statement in this matter. Iran has repeatedly claimed that it will not attend the peace conference with precondition, which defines that Asad should leave the power in Syria. From this, we can assume that Iran's puppet "Hezbollah" would reject this precondition and consequently the coming peace conference as well. Given the fact that the Syrian authority, Iran and Hezbollah are the key actors in this conflict and these actors are strongly rejecting the precondition imposed by the West, what would be the possible outcome of Geneva II peace conference?

This brief information shows that there is  A zero-sum game condition between the key actors involved in this conflict. As such, we cannot have high expectation from Geneva II conference. This, however, does not mean the end of the world. We can attend the peace conference and achieve some positive common goals, which would are beneficial to some degree for at least most of the actors that are involved in this conflict. One of these goals would be implementation of a temporarily truce as a first step (later sustainable) between Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition in the country. If we manage to make a reliable deal in this matter, we would be able to reach the further positive goal in this conflict. This goal would be defeating and dismantling the Jihadist groups in the country by the common help and assistance of Asad's Regime and the Syrian opposition. Should this happen, we would be able to move further and progressively with regards to finding a fundamental solution for the Syrian conflict step by step. Because the situation in Syria has become more complicated. In such a complex environment at this stage, we cannot suddenly jump into the final goal in this conference as the Secretary of State John Kerry wishes. Once again, I repeat my statement: without implementing these two main and primary tasks, we reach nothing with regards to the Syrian conflict.




M. Sirani                                 19.01.2014



Reference:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Jan-19/244518-assad-says-not-ready-to-give-up-power.ashx#axzz2qqe6gl9G

Sunday, December 25, 2016

The Chance that Russian Plane Has Crashed in the Black Sea Due to Some Accident, Is Very Low. Terrorism Is A Possibility.

Briefly:

One might have planted an explosive device in the Plane at Sochi Airport.

Note: The existence of An anti-aircraft missile in this case means a total disaster (I hope my prediction in this regard would not come true).




M. Sirani            25.12.2016


Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than You Thought.

Briefly:

Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.


Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
 And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part. 

What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:

A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China

B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.

C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.

D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.

E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO. 

F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries. 

G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.  

And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.  

Honestly: The kindergarten policies of Obama administration, some previous U.S. administrations and some EU countries are the main causes of such a big development.


M. Sirani                 20.12.2016 

Monday, December 19, 2016

Angela Merkel Does Not Have Any Chance At All To Be Re-Elected Again In the Next Year Election in Germany; Unless A Miracle Happens.

Totally wrong domestic as well as foreign policy would lead to a serious disaster.


Note: Some people still don't get it. But the EU is pregnant with many events in the next coming months & years. I don't see any good picture in different terms in this regard; not at all. I have repeatedly warned about this issue in my earlier posts. I repeat it again: The EU is in a serious S**** dangerous situation.


In my essay entitled "An Assessment About the Current Civil War in Syria"(2013) in the section "Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War", i warned about various terrorist activities, which would happen in the Western countries & the EU (All politicians & pundits ignored my warning). What we are observing currently in Germany, France , etc is just the tip of the iceberg. The catastrophic terrorist activities would begin, when the Syrian civil war is over and those so-called "rebels" have returned to their own countries.   




M. Sirani                  19.12.2016    

Assassination of Russian Ambassador in Turkey Not Only Deteriorates the Overall Chaotic Situation of the Middle East & Probably Ukraine, But Also Put EU-Turkey Membership And Free-Visa Request for Turkish Citizens At Serious Risk (Some Primary Consequences).

Another consequence:

Idlib will face a devastating bloodbath in the next couple of days.


M. Sirani                               19.12.2016

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Stop Whining. Do You Want Really Counter Iran in the Middle East? This is Your Only Solution So Far.

It Should be added that changing the price of oil & gas is just one positive side effect of my Master Plan; A plan that without firing a single bullet can change the course of many events for good in the whole Middle East. 

The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:
1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.
2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 


M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Three Biggest Historical Mistakes of the USA and Its Western Allies Since 1990 Onward (Maybe It's Too Late For A Wake Up Call).

Briefly:

Here below are the three biggest historical mistakes of the USA and its Western allies since 1990.

A- Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, the USA and its western allies should have not supported and promoted any Islamic political system and group (Shiite, Sunni, etc) in the entire Asia, the Middle East & Africa; which they didn't.

B- Following the collapse of the socialism bloc in 1990, the USA and its western allies should have fully & respectfully integrated Russia into their orbit; which they didn't.

C- Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, the USA and its western allies should have fundamentally adjusted and changed their foreign policy with regards to China; which they didn't.

Imagine; What type of world had we, if the USA and its western allies would have followed the three policies mentioned above properly and professionally?

Note: The lack of these three policies mentioned above has cost a lot and will cost a lot for the USA and its western allies in the long term (beyond next 20-30 years and further; unless a miracle happens). We cannot reverse the historical clock back to those years; i fully understand that. The reason, i briefly explored these policies is the fact that the current U.S. administration (Obama) and its western allies are still moving in the totally wrong direction, which cost them much more than what they have paid since 1990 up until now.


M. Sirani                           14.12.2016

Important Development: Kyrgyz Parliament Ratifies Memorandum on Accession of India, Pakistan to The Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

As i predicted earlier through many short notes:

Iran will join the Shanghai Treaty in the future. The overall consequences of the membership of India, Pakistan and Iran in the SCO are predictable in different terms.


Note: Those geniuses decision makers can enjoy the result of their "Kindergarten Foreign Policy" now (Catch Iran; if you can).


M. Sirani                           14.12.2016

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Warning: Iran's President Hassan Rouhani Orders Nuclear-Fuelled Warships (It's Time For Those Geniuses To Welcome Iran to International Nuclear Club).

Briefly:

A- Iran is one of the main shareholders of "ThyssenKrupp" since many years ago.

B- ThyssenKrupp has a contract to build three submarines for Israel, which they can carry nuclear missiles & warheads.

C- Just recently have been exposed that some secret details of ThyssenKrupp was stolen couple of months ago through some cyber attacks.

D- Iran has decided to develop nuclear-fuelled warships.

E- A nuclear warship or submarine needs above 50-60 % enriched uranium.


Note: Special thanks to geniuses Obama administration and its EU counterparts, which have facilitated the best path for Iranian Regime to become a nuclear armed state in the future in a very "legal & legitimate manner" without any problem.

Those geniuses should clean up their nuclear mess in the entire Middle East.


M. Sirani                        13.12.2016

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Warning: The Civil War in Syria & Iraq Should Be Stopped As Soon As Possible; Otherwise the EU Would Face A Huge Problems in 2017.

Briefly:

Disintegration of the EU in 2017 means influx of millions of refugees toward EU countries. The EU countries should clean up the mess quickly as possible; before it's too late. Some geniuses in the EU capitals have absolutely no idea what is waiting for them in 2017.

Note: The result of your wrong policy with regards to the Middle East, Syria and Iraq is haunting you badly.



M. Sirani                           08.12.2016

Breaking: ThyssenKrupp (Germany Company) Secret Details Have Been Stolen Through Cyber Attack (A Serious Threat For Israel & The Rest of the World).

Briefly:

This event & its negative consequences in different terms including militarily & security matters are enormous.

Simply: The Iranian Regime is one of the shareholders of ThyssenKrupp. This company has a contract to build three submarines for Israel, which can carry nuclear missile or warhead.

Imagine the overall consequences.

Note: As long as you are in the hibernation mode, the Iranian Regime beats the hell out of you by all means in every battlefield. Shut down the kindergarten and do your job properly & professionally; before it's too late.



M. Sirani                           08.12.2016 

Total Confusion, Chaos & Incoherent Moves in Foreign Policy of Current UK Government (Disastrous in Short & Long Term).

Clean the mess up; before it's too late.


M. Sirani                   08.12.2016

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Exclusive: 2017 Would Be The Unforgettable Year in Our History; The Global Tectonic in Different Terms is Ahead of Us.

Briefly:

We will experience many changes in different terms at national, regional and global levels in 2017; a type of "Global Tectonic in Different Arenas". The overall impact of these changes is unbelievably deep and broad and will hit every corner of the world to some extent.  


Note: As some examples: The EU will highly likely collapse. The collapse of the EU & consequently EURO will force many investors to look for a better, safer and stable heaven for further investment. In this respect, the USA will be one of the best & safest countries in the entire world. As such, i predict, the USA will face the influx of capital flight.


M. Sirani                    06.12.2016

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Brexit and Now Turkey, Greece, Italy And France! The EU is Not in A Good Shape; The Union is On the Verge of Collapse; Unless A Miracle Happens.

Briefly:

The chance for a miracle in International Relations or International Politics is very low or i might say nearly impossible. Thus, Good Luck Chancellor Merkel.


Note: There are some policies, which in case of implementation, they might function like "Damage Control Policies" and prevent the total collapse of the EU. But, i'm not sure about the 100% successful result of such policies at this stage, due to many reasons mainly A- Timing, B- Highly Bureaucratic-complicated structure & nature of the EU.   


M. Sirani                            04.12.2016

Some Simple Questions for M. Renzi.

Briefly:

1- What type of positive policies have you implemented for the overall well-being of majority of Italian people in the last couple of years?

2- How did you expect to obtain extra power and a YES-VOTE by such a poor resume?

3- Who were your genius advisers with regard to this referendum?


Note: Unbelievable; considering such a poor resume, you are asking the people to offer you additional power!!! How do some people come up with such a suicidal move? It's really shocking me. 


M. Sirani                              04.12.2016 

Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).


Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).




Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 


Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.
2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.
3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.
4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).


Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 


M. Sirani                24.11.2016



2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  



3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 


Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

Alexander Van der Bellen, the Pro-EU Candidate Won the Presidential Election in Austria (Don't Expect Such A Result With High Certainty in the Case of Italy & France in the Future).

Briefly: Don't be too happy and don't expect such a pro-European results in Italy and France in the future.

Just remember: Austria is surrounded by other EU countries and is located in the middle of the Union. The country does not have direct access to international water like Italy, France, Spain or Germany. Considering this fact and the notion that we are currently experiencing a global economic downturn, choosing a far-right wing candidate and consequently leaving the EU could have been a huge disaster (In different terms including trade) for Austria at this stage.

This is just one of those small but important details that some genius so-called "Think Tanks (I call them DING DANGS or Living Copier & Paster) do not pay attention to it in their jargon analysis. 

As such, don't be too happy and don't expect that such a Pro-European result with high certainty and probability might happen for Italy and France in the future, in my opinion.

Note: The EU is on the verge of collapse. 

M. Sirani                       04.12.2016 

Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency.

Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016

Saturday, December 3, 2016

It Seems Germany is Allowing Other EU Citizens To Join Its Army (By Such A Suicidal Move, You Cannot Save the Shaky Structure of the EU).

Briefly:

If this news is true, the only thing i can tell to the politicians in Germany is:

Are you okay?

By such a suicidal move, you cannot save the shaky structure of the EU. If we lived in Perpetual Peace Community of E. Kant (WHICH, WE ARE NOT) such an idea might work.

Note: The high level of confusion of some people makes me totally speechless. O. V. Bismarck is spinning in his grave by such a news. 


M. Sirani                      03.12.2016

Friday, December 2, 2016

Arrivederci M. Renzi.

Warning: "Nobel Peace Laureate" Aung San Suu Kyi Would Drag Myanmar Into A New Civil War & Chaos.

Briefly:

The totally wrong and harsh policies of Aung San Suu kyi with regard to the Rohingya people would finally force the Myanmar Muslim people to revolt somewhere in the future. Such a hypothetical event would highly likely plunge the entire country into chaos and another civil war. In such an event, the Myanmar army would highly likely once again seize the power in the country through a new military coup.

Needless to explore the negative consequences of such an event at national, regional or global level.


M. Sirani                         02.12.2016            

Thursday, December 1, 2016

The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU.

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank). 




M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  

Sunday, November 27, 2016

There is High Probability for Both FrancExit And ItalyExit. Either FrancExit or ItalyExit or Both Would Highly Likely Lead to the Total Collapse of the EU (Remember My Prediction).

Should this happen, Germany would lose a lot in different terms. Honestly, i don't see a bright future for Germany in this regard based on many reasons.

M. Sirani                     28.11.2016