Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Warning: Highly Likely A Devastating Endemic is Ahead of Us. Design & Develop A Comprehensive Preparedness & Contingency Plan in Advance For the Next Coming Years & Possibly Decade to Come.

 

Here below is my primary evaluation with regards to the current Covid-19 pandemic and the serious threat of a devastating Endemic, which is highly likely ahead of us.

Based on some factors such as:

A- Rapid Mutation of Covid-19: This is a scientifically proven fact that all viruses mutate. So is the case of Covid-19 virus. But different evidences indicate a fact that Covid-19 mutates faster than some other viruses. According to the research of two Chinese Scientists (Published on the beginning of 2020), Covid-19 virus had more than 30 mutations in the bodies of 11 Chinese patients in less than a few weeks (Around 2-3 months).

 

B- High Speed of Spreading & High Level of Adaptability of Covid-19 virus to New Environment and New Host:

Up until the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, generally speaking, Covid-19 viruses were found mostly in the bodies of only bats. As we have observed in the past nearly 1.5 year, Covid-19 virus has expanded its territory and can be found not only in the bodies of humans but also other animals such as apps, lions, dogs, cats, etc. This brief explanation simply indicates a fact that when it comes to its hosts and vectors, Covid-19 has had an extraordinary expansion. So far, I haven’t seen or heard any news regarding the existence of Covid-19 in the bodies of some Maritime Species. If Covid-19 would be able to enter that area and would be able to survive in that environment, the entire world would face a devastating & irreversible catastrophe for decades or maybe for centuries to come. This is a serious matter, which should not be ignored nor underestimated, in my opinion.  

 

C- Limited Duration of Vaccine Immunity: As far as I know, most of the vaccines against Covid-19 can provide immunity for humans for nearly 6 months. We should also bear in mind that the chance that any pharmacological company would be able to develop a permanent vaccine against this virus and its variants in the next coming months, years or even decade is very low. Considering these factors, rapid mutations of this virus and some resistible examples such as South Africa & UK Variants of this virus, we can come to the factual conclusion that current Covid-19 vaccines would not be able to deal with this virus and its mutated cousins in an effective & proper manner in the next coming months & years and this virus has come to stay with us for a long period of time.

 

D- Negligence in Vaccination: Based on many reasons such as the lack of trust to science or governmental institutions or negligence, some people might escape the vaccination or ignore the necessary second shot of their vaccines. All these cases are dangerous specially the latest one. Injecting the first shot but ignoring the second - complementary shot along with rapid mutation characteristic of this virus, would make Covid-19 stronger, more powerful and resistible with regards to many vaccines.

 

Based on what briefly explored above, I strongly believe that we are passing through Pandemic Phase and are going to enter the devastating phase of “Endemic”, when it comes to Covid-19 virus. In this respect, I strongly suggest that all the states would develop and design a comprehensive Preparedness & Contingency plan for the next coming years and beyond in dealing with this virus and its overall negative consequences in every possible term.

 

M. Sirani               27.04.2021      

    

 

Some of My Predictions, Which Have Come True So Far (Between 2012-2020):

 Here below are some of my previous analyses and predictions regarding different events, conflicts and subjects related to various parts of the world since 2012 till 2020. Before starting to read the following 5 pages, I should remind the reader with the followings:

1- Generally speaking, two types of writings have been uploaded on my (Ice Aged) blog. A- Some of my academic essays: Among them A- The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (BS Thesis-Published on TRAC website), B- Iran Should Not Get the Nuclear Bomb (This essay criticizes Kenneth. Waltz’s Defensive Realism by using and focusing the Expansionist Foreign Policy of the Iranian Regime) and C- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (This essay explores the overall power and activities of IRGC at home and abroad), could be mentioned. B- IMPROMPTU Brief Analyses, Predictive Forecasts, Risk Management related Issues & alike at the framework of sometimes one page, one paragraph, a short note or a single line without even any editing process.

2- As you would visit my blog, you would notice that I haven’t written and uploaded more writing to it since 2020-2021. This simply does not mean my knowledge has hit the rock bottom or there is nothing in the world that I could write something about it. Not at all. The main reason behind this matter is only one thing and that is my concern. My concern in this regard is the notion that my predictions, which most of them have come true SO FAR & will come true somewhere in the future, are only the products of my mindset and brain and no one else. By publishing them openly and publicly, some wrong state/s or non-state actor/s might take advantage from them and use them against any other state or non-state actor in an unfair, unjust, illegitimate, illegal, immoral and unethical manner; that’s the way I’m thinking. For this reason, I have imposed self-sensor on myself since 2020-21 and do not update my blog anymore the way I did in the past. Otherwise, our current chaotic world has numerous important subjects and events to write or talk about them in every possible term.

Here below are some of my brief analyses and predictions with regards to many events in various parts of the world since 2012 till 2020, which almost all of them have come true SO FAR.  

1- Building aircraft Carrier, A pretext for Iran to enrich uranium above 60% (Predicted on 22.03.2014 – Iran has recently started with 60% enriching uranium). Further Prediction: Under the pretext of Medical Research, Iran would use 60% enriched uranium for its submarine and navy ships and thereafter would pave the way towards 90% enrichment for nuclear weapon.

 Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-latest-claim-about-irans-aircraft.html

 

2-The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican (Predicted on 07 October, 2014).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-next-president-of-usa.html

 

3- Iran would seize the power in Yemen (Predicted on 03 September 2012).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html

 

4- Iran would seize the power in Yemen (Predicted on 03 June, 2012- Persian Language article.

Link: http://www.iran-chabar.de/article.jsp?essayId=46402


The map above belonged to an Essay Entitled: “Iran Should Not Get the Nuclear Bomb” (M. Sirani-2012).

Should be added that through multiple short notes, in the beginning of 2015, I predicted that Saudi-led coalition would lose the battle in Yemen and in a very optimistic way of thinking Yemen would be divided into two or three pieces mainly between Iran, Saudi Arabia & UAE (Uploaded on my blog & posted on Twitter).  

5- Ukraine: Signing Free Trade with the EU (NATO PACT AS WELL), Might Lead to the

Division of Ukraine into Two Pieces (Predicted on 27 April, 2015). I warned about Crimea annexation somewhere in my blog and Twitter too.

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/04/ukraines-signing-free-trade-with-eu.html

Should this happen, Russia will annex some parts of Ukraine and connect Crimea to the land, the way I have described in the map below.



Note: I hope my prediction in this matter does not come true; because the negative consequences would be devastating for different actors particularly for the Ukrainian people.


M. Sirani                                          27.04.2015

6- Hillary Clinton Does Not Have Too Much Chance (In U.S. 2016 Election. Predicted on 12 April, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/04/hillary-clinton-does-not-have-too-much.html

 

7- Improving Cuba & USA Relationship; The Whole World Should Cross The Finger loool

(Predicted on 11 April, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/04/improving-usa-cuba-relationship-is-only.html

8- The Shadow of Imminent Long Period Terror All Over The Europe (Predicted on 26 June, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-shadow-of-long-period-terror-all.html

9- Influx of Refugees and Migrants Towards USA & the EU (Predicted on 08 June, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-developed-countries-should-be.html

10- Trump: Warning for the USA & The Rest of the World. Trump Has Started With His “Invisible Coup”. Not Only Democrats, but Also Republicans Will Regret; when it’s too late (Predicted on May 2, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/05/warning-for-usa-rest-of-world-trump-has.html

11- Follow Trump Foreign Policy; All Would Be Beneficial Somehow for Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia & UAE at the End of the Road (Predicted on 01 May, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/05/follow-trump-foreign-policies-all-his.html

12- Turkey: Just Watch & See How Trump Directly & Indirectly Pushes Turkey Further in the Arms of Russia & By This Creates Chaos for NATO & the EU (Predicted on 01 May, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/05/turkey-just-watch-see-how-trump.html

13- Iran: Warning: A Plan of War or Military Strike Against Iran is on the Table (Predicted on 10 February, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/02/warningthe-plan-of-war-or-some-type-of.html

14- Trump: For the Record: Trump is One-Term President (Predicted on 04 January, 2020).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2020/01/for-record-trump-is-one-term-us.html

15- The USA: The Emergence and Rise of Secessionist, Ultra-Chauvinist and Right-Wing Groups in the USA and Accordingly the Eruption of Some Types of Armed Clashes and Highly Likely Civil War in Some States in the USA (Briefly: My Hypothesis About the Emergence of a New World System etc. Predicted on 16 November, 2018).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2018/11/my-prediction-about-world-system-in.html  

 

16- The Victory of Trump in 2016 Election: Since January 2016 till final days of October, 2016, I repeatedly predicted Trump would win the election against all odds and polls. I published my predictions in this regard on Twitter.

17- The Emergence of A Global Economic Crisis somewhere at the end of 2019 or max in the beginning of 2020: I repeatedly warned IMF, WB, UN Secretary General, etc about this matter on Twitter, somewhere in 2017 and thereafter repeatedly in 2018-2019. My argument in this regard was based on the combination of some factors such as: A- Stagnation and slow movement in housing market & real estate, B- Trump’s isolationism attitude, his wrong & counterproductive economic policy to create balance of trade (IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD; WHEREIN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ARE INTERRELATED, INTERWOVEN & INTERCONNECTED BETWEEN MULTIPLE ACTORS) & overall negative consequences of these wrong policies at national, regional and global level,

C- Hyperactivities (Mostly orchestrated & artificial) around cryptocurrencies, D- Low inflation, in some cases zero-inflation and deflation, E- An increase in Unemployment rates, F- Stagnated and low price of fossil energy (oil & gas), while some exporters such as Iraq, Libya, Nigeria experienced some type of instability, uncertainty, decrease in production; while a country like Iran couldn’t export its oil & gas freely due to some sanctions imposed by the USA; while in the various parts of the Middle East, the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea (Close to Syria), Iran, Israel and some Arab States (SA, UAE, possibly backed by Trump administration), hit the oil tankers of each other; while Houthis in Yemen backed by Iran targeted some oil facilities inside Saudi Arabia by their missiles or drones,, etc,

G- Huge amount of global debt & corporate debt in comparison with global GDP (Just in 2019 were: Global GDP= Something around $90 trillion dollars, Global Debt= Were double something around $180 trillion dollars), H- Executing Quantitative Easing by some highly developed countries, I- Large number of conflicts in various parts of the world, J- Brexit and its overall chaos, uncertainty, instability, K- Influx of refugees & migrants from Africa & South America towards the USA & the EU,  etc, etc etc. Based on this brief explanation, I predicted we would face a global economic crisis somewhere at the end of 2019 or in the beginning of 2020. This pandemic triggered the crisis.


A simple fair question for the reader of this article:

Have you seen or heard a single person in the entire world alone has predicted some or all i have mentioned above? ( Personally, i haven't seen anyone. But i will be glad to meet or be familiar with my extraordinary twin in this regard). 


M. Sirani                          27.04.2021

Monday, February 15, 2021

Urgently Need A Fair Job Offer or a Co-Founder-Sponsor to Establish the Humanitarian "Solution Without Borders Foundation".

In the next 15-20 years and beyond, our world will face massive challenges. Some challenges that will drag the entire world into a total chaos, instability, insecurity and conflict in every possible term. Among these challenges, A- Rapid climate changes, environmental degradation and occurrence of various natural disasters, B- The full development of new sources of cleaner energy (E.g. Nuclear Fusion Method), and C- The full development and involvement of Automation, 3D Printers and Artificial Intelligence in various job sectors, could be mentioned. 

The combination of these three massive events, their effects and side effects will undoubtedly drag the entire world into a total chaos in every possible social, cultural, environmental, economic and political term at national, regional and global level. To deal with these challenges and to some extent minimize the negative effects of these horrific events, i have worked on some projects throughout the past couple of years. 

The result of my effort are three major plans as follows: A- A Plan for denuclearization of North Korea and Korean Peninsula (A Regional Plan), B- A multi-phase Plan for the Middle East (Expandable to Africa too) and C- An Environmental Plan (At Global Level). These plans along with some necessary changes, reforms, adjustments in some other areas (E.g. in our International Institutions, conventions, laws & regulations) could be understood as the Basic Foundation for A New World System. 

The combination of these plans and their implementation will create a safer, better, cleaner and more secure and stable world and accordingly will change the course of history for hundreds of millions of people (if not billions) in a very profound, positive and sustainable manner. 

Considering many factors, including the victory of President Biden in the recent election, the total chaos in our current world, extraordinary need for many positive changes at national, regional and global level all around the world including in our international institutions and timing factor, i strongly believe this is the best historical moment for taking initiative for these three plans briefly mentioned above. 


As an impartial analyst, i'm ready to share my plans and vision with any reliable state, institution, organization or even an individual, who support me in introducing and implementation of any of these projects. In advance, any kind of support and assistance in this regard will be greatly appreciated.  


M. Sirani             15.02.2021

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Re Foundation "Solution Without Borders".

 Request for Participation-Sponsorship

I would like to invite you to become the sponsor/s (And if you wish, the co-founder/s) of the 

“Solution Without Borders Foundation”. A non-profit & humanitarian Foundation that can 

offer professional, pragmatic, reasonable and fair solution for various types of problems to its 

clients at national, regional and global level. By the combination of your support, 

sponsorship, my extensive experimental - academic knowledge and extraordinary talent in 

problem-solving / conflict resolution, we can cause positive changes for many people around 

the world regardless of gender, race, ethnicity, nationality, age, sexual orientation, religious 

beliefs, thinking style or any other visible or invisible diversity. Your support and 

participation in this humanitarian project would be highly appreciated.


M. Sirani                27.10.2020


P. S. Those, who are interested for further discussion and info regarding this positive 

concept, can leave a message in the comment box below (Comment Box is fixed on "Awaiting Moderation" and messages would not appear for public). 

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Some Religious Reasons for Conflicts in Syria & Yemen; In Addition To Economic & Geo-Strategic Reasons (WARNING: DO NOT OPEN A PANDORA'S BOX FOR A MESSIANIC ESCHATOLOGICAL WAR).

WARNING: DO NOT OPEN A PANDORA'S BOX FOR A MESSIANIC ESCHATOLOGICAL WAR.  

From the Essay entitled "Will the US Attack Iran?"


4- The Mindset of Policy Makers in Iran:
The ideological foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based on the Shia branch of Islam. The Shia Muslims in Iran (Mostly Twelver) are the followers of the twelve descendants of the Prophet Mohammad. According to Shia mythology, some three centuries after the death of the Prophet Mohammad, the twelfth Imam (Mahdi) went into an indefinite period of occultation. The fundamental belief of Shia branch is as follows: when the world is full of injustice, inequality, and violence, Imam Mahdi will return and fill the world with justice and prosperity for all people, through the establishment of an Islamic state on Earth. Based on this theological doctrine, the Islamic Regime has been trying to expand its influence and hegemony beyond its own geographical borders, particularly in the Middle East. This religious expansion is a celestial duty for the Islamic Regime and it pursues a sacred goal: the establishment of a Shia Empire in the region. Two of the most important functions of this Shia Empire would be as follows: 1- It would facilitate the advent of Imam Mahdi and 2- It would provide the necessary assistance and support to Imam Mahdi, when he will return from occultation. Iran precisely knows that the achievement of such a divine and important goal without the nuclear weapon is almost impossible. This is the main reason behind Iran’s nuclear activities. However, different evidences indicate the fact that recently despite enormous diplomatic pressure and severe economic sanctions, Iran not only has not reduced its uranium enrichment programmes, instead it has accelerated its nuclear activities, for example at Fordo underground facility near Qom city (Afshari, 2011; Aei, 2012; Sirani, 2012; Eteghad, 2012).

This issue raises a serious question. Why Iran does not halt or reduce its nuclear activity, despite all these diplomatic and economic sanctions? The answer to this question has direct connection with current civil war in Syria and Shia group uprising in Yemen. As we know, from early days of the Islamic Revolution, the policy makers in Iran have been trying to hold a durable, solid, and close tie with Syrian regime. This close relationship between Tehran and Damascus can be understood partly within the concept of a stronger strategic partnership against Israel. However, this is not the whole story; since, there is some other important reason beyond this inseparable strategic partnership. According to different hadiths in Shia branch of Islam, the righteous movement in Yemen and bloody civil war in Syria are amongst five events, which would occur before or during the emergence of Imam Mahdi (Eteghad, 2012; Sirani, 2012).
According to one of these hadiths:

One example of the direct help that Imam Mahdi will receive from Allah s.w.t. will be his defeat of Sufyaani. Sufyaani will be a man from the family of Abu Sufyan, and he will emerge from Damascus and conduct a ruthless campaign of bloodshed and mass killing, during which thousands of innocent people will be slaughtered. He will be supported by the people of the tribe of Kalb.

Sufyaani will dispatch his army to Mecca in order to destroy Imam Mahdi, however Imam Mahdi’s army will easily defeat Sufyaani’s army. Sufyaani will then lead a separate contingent of his remaining army to face Imam Mahdi himself. This army will subsequently be destroyed by an enormous earthquake at Baidaa on the road to Mecca”
(Al-Shia, 2012).

It seems unrealistic for us, but this is the way that the policy makers in Iran perceive the Shia uprising in Yemen and the current civil war in Syria. In fact, the policy makers in Iran have a strong belief that currently, the Sufyaani army (i.e. the Syrian Liberation Army and those states who support them) wants to defeat Syrian regime and after that, this army will move to Mecca in order to kill Imam Mahdi. Therefore, defending Assad’s regime would become a divine duty for policy makers in Iran, which has to be fulfilled at the expense of everything, in order to save Imam Mahdi. In fact, the combination of the current civil war in Syria, Yemen and the Arab spring has portrayed an image in the mind of religious policy makers in Iran that these rallies across the Middle East arise from the chaos of the final war. In other words, according to Shia mythology, we are close to the advent of Imam Mahdi or the Day of Judgment. Thus, based on Shia eschatological philosophy, Iran should defeat its enemies and establish a new world order; a new world without war, injustice and inequality (Williams, 2013; Al-Shia, 2012; Eteghad, 2012).
This is an important matter that most of the scholars and politicians do not pay attention to it.
Based on all explained above, we can deduce that Iran’s eschatological war, across the Middle East including in Syria has begun. In the mind of policy makers in Iran, this is the historical-religious moment that Iran should acquire the nuclear bomb in order to accomplish its divine mission. Therefore, the chance that Iran would stop or reduce its nuclear activities is very low. As a result, we can expect that eventually, these diplomatic negotiations will also reach a dead end somewhere in the future. In this case, there is high probability that the US will attack Iran. The next section shall discuss this issue (Williams, 2013; Sirani, 2012).   

M. Sirani                        2012

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Warning:The Plan of A War or Some Type of Military Strike Against Iran Is Highly Likely On The Table.


Briefly:
Different evidences indicate a fact that the plan of a war or some type of military confrontation against Iran is on the table. These evidences are briefly described as follows:

A- Imposing harsh sanctions on Iran including its oil & gas export, which are the main sources of revenue for the Iranian Regime; in order to weaken Iran's economy.

B- Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria: This move (in case of full implementation) is highly likely the order of Russia. Putin does not want the devastated Syria specially at this stage that ISIS has been almost defeated, would become a new battlefield between Iran, its proxies and U.S. troops inside Syria.

C- Forcing Houthis in Yemen to withdraw from Hodeidah Port under the agreement of Stockholm Talks. Why is this issue important? In case of a military confrontation with Iran, the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and part of Arabian Sea would be highly likely closed for any type of maritime transport. Such a hypothetical scenario would be devastating in terms of oil & gas export for many states not only at regional level within the Middle East but also at global level. In such a scenario, the only safe & secure passages would be the Gulf of Aden, the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb and the Red Sea. If Hodeidah Port would remain in the hands of Houthis, In case of a military confrontation, Iran can paralyze the international community from both sides in the Persian Gulf  and the Red Sea. That's why, some are trying to remove the Houthis from this important Geo-Strategic Port ASAP.

D- As the Time of Israel claims, Mossad, MI6 and CIA have helped an Iranian Nuclear Scientist to escape from Iran, smuggled him to the UK and thereafter transferred him to the USA (False or true, this event is similar to those Iraqi chemical experts, who exposed the existence of WMD in Iraq before 2003 invasion to Iraq. As it appears, in the next coming days & weeks, we might expect some breaking news & revelation about the illegal & secret nuclear activity of Iran by some news agencies).
E- The upcoming Middle East Conference in Poland: This event is a type of mobilization of the international community specially the Europeans, who are the important economic partners of Iran after Russia & China against Iran. This move is similar to the move of G.H. W. Bush (the father), who mobilized the international community in case of Liberation of Kuwait from Iraqi army in 1991(The Gulf War).

F- Morocco has recently suspended its military cooperation with Saudi-led coalition in case of the conflict in Yemen. This issue might be partly due to the fact that Morocco does not want to be involved in a broader & deeper conflict with Iran at this stage based on some reasons; although, Morocco has its own problem with Iran in case of the Western Sahara conflict and the notion that Iran is one of the main supporters of the Polisario Front rebels.
G- Some actors behind this plan, for example, Trump, Netanyahu & Saudi Crown Prince are suffering from some types of problems at domestic, foreign affairs or both issues based on many reasons. They need some distraction to preserve their position. A war with Iran & the propaganda around this issue could be a tool in this regard.

The combination of all these issues mentioned above, indicate a fact that the plan of a war against Iran is highly likely on the table. These issues mentioned above are some type of preparations for such a move. Should this happen and a military confrontation with Iran begins, the overall negative consequences of such a move would be devastating for many people across the Middle East, parts of Africa and possibly beyond these areas. It should be added: As an Iranian in exile, i'm totally against the Iranian Regime. But i believe such a move not only does not solve anything at all with regards to the Iranian Regime and its expansionist activities; on the contrary, it would add more chaos, instability, tension & disaster in different terms for many people across the Middle East, some parts of Africa and possibly beyond these areas. And that is a horrific scenario in different terms that the entire international community cannot handle it. 
M. Sirani           10.02.2019
 

Friday, November 16, 2018

My Hypothesis:(It Will Highly Likely Happen Before the End of This Century & Sooner) A New World System: A World Divided Between Various Regions & REGIONAL POWERS- The Rise of Secessionist Movement/s In the USA.

Briefly:
In the next coming decades, our world system will go through various changes. Based on my calculation & analysis, in the next coming decades, we will not have some super powers in a way that currently we are observing. The world will be divided between various regions & REGIONAL POWERS. The time between now and reaching this hypothetical historical point (A New World System) will take couple of decades and reaching this point will not be a peaceful, soft & easy process. To reach such a point, we will pass through many tensions & conflicts in various parts of the world, mainly in Asia, the Middle East, The Central Asian Countries, Africa & South America.

Following some years or maybe decades tensions & conflicts, the world will be divided between various regions & regional powers. This hypothetical era will be a more stable & peaceful time in comparison with our current world system in different terms. As an example, in such an era, the number of tension & conflict between two or more states in one region will decrees. On the contrary, most of the tensions & conflicts will be between regions & regional powers. This hypothetical era will be accompanied with some inevitable changes. Among them the two following issues could be mentioned.

A- Some Changes in our International Institutions, Laws, Conventions & Regulations.Following reaching this point, we will be forced to perform many changes in our international institutions, laws, regulations & conventions in different terms, scales & scopes. We will highly likely dissolve the current United Nations with current framework. And instead will develop two different (But Parallel) International Institutions as follows:A- Some regional institutions (For each region)B- Some Global institutions, which will be used by representatives of various regions for solving the global issues, better coordination & cooperation between various regions, or solving the conflict & tension between two or more regions with each other , etc etc. In this respect, i can say, our international institutions will be smaller with less bureaucracy, less budget, but with more efficiency.One of the most important characteristics of this era will be the fact that The Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council will lose their veto rights. Based on this characteristics and some other factors, i can say with high certainty that such an era will be a more fair, stable & peaceful era in comparison with our current world system.

B- The Rise of Secessionist-Separatist Movement/s in the USA: In such a hypothetical era, the USA will become a heavily indebted regional power. Following this hypothetical event, some rich states within the USA might come to the conclusion that the overall cost of their remaining within the framework of the United States is more than its benefit in various terms. In such an event, the idea that all migrants, who were migrated to the USA from various parts of the world, should mandatory stay together & remain united in order to be able to defeat the native Indians or some European Colonial rules, does not exist anymore. These issues along with many other social, cultural, economic, environmental & political factors will highly likely convince some rich states to secede from the United States. Due to some issues such as the existence of the Second Amendment, inequality and some other factors, the process of secession and separatism movements in the USA will not happen through a calm, peaceful and diplomatic negotiation.   


Sirani                      16.11.2018 

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

How A Group Like the Muslim Brotherhood By Sacrificing Khashoggi Brought A Rich & Powerful State Like Saudi Arabia to its Knees. An Orchestrated Trap and An Inexperienced Crown Prince.

Briefly:

Khashoggi was either a member of Muslim Brotherhood or a sympathizer to Muslim Brotherhood and at the same time an opponent to current Saudi political system. Considering harsh & tough reaction of Saudi government with regards to its opponents, Khashoggi had decided to leave Saudi Arabia and live in exile; a type of self-exiled person.

Considering this brief details, the death of Khashoggi raises some seqrious questions as follows. Khashoggi knew that his life was in danger; as such he left his motherland Saudi Arabia & lived in exile. At the same time, Khashoggi had enough knowledge and information about how Saudi government deals with its opponents; he knew about arrest, torture and in some case abduction of some dissidents by Saudi authority. Despite all these information, Khashoggi entered Saudi embassy in Turkey to obtain a legal document. Why?
Khashoggi could have given legal & legitimate authority to a third person or a lawyer for example to go to Saudi Embassy and obtain that necessary document in a secure & safe manner. Khashoggi didn't do that and this event led to his death.

From this explanation, we might come to another hypothesis. So this might be the real story.
Khashoggi knew that Saudi authority would try to abduct or either kill him in the Saudi Embassy. Despite this threat & danger, he entered Saudi embassy. Khashoggi was a type of suicide bomber. He didn't carry any bomb with himself inside the embassy; but he knew that either by his abduction or death by Saudi officials in the embassy, he would be able to cause a huge damage to Saudi Arabia in different terms.
Some other evidences underpin my argument in this regard. This horrific event happened inside Saudi embassy in Turkey; a country that openly & publicly supports Muslim Brotherhood. Turkish authority or another third party recorded the voice and obtained some video clip from this event. Turkish authority had all the activities of Saudis under its watch & surveillance. They watched & controlled every single move of Saudis including the arrival of 15 Saudis with two private planes , etc etc etc.

In my opinion, the entire this tragic event was a type of orchestrated trap for Saudi government & Saudi Crown prince. And inexperienced & adventurist Saudi Crown Prince felt badly in this trap. To put it simply, by this suicidal mission, Khashoggi caused a huge explosion and accordingly enormous damages to Saudi Arabia in different terms. If Khashoggi had entered Saudi embassy with 1000 kg TNT and exploded there, he could have not caused such a damage to Saudi Arabia & its political system as he has done now.

M. Sirani               16.10.2018 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Overpopulation Is An Effect. The Dilemma of Neo-Malthusian.


         
               Malthusianism
                                 
                                  And  
                  
              The Overpopulation Dilemma




Name: M.Sirani
Institute: Noragric
Course: EDS290, Development Classics
Semester: 2nd
Date of Submission: 5-5-2009
Total Words: 4171




Introduction:
Dr. Paul Ehrlich states “The battle to feed al of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now”. He argues “If we don’t do something dramatic about population and environment, and do it immediately, there’s just no hope that civilization will persist” (1974).
Jared Diamond says population growth and overusing natural resources lead to social collapse. Dr. Donald Aiken says “The government has to step in and tamper with religious and personal convictions---maybe even impose penalties for every child a family has beyond two” (wattenberg,1974). Some other scholars go further and attribute overpopulation to other causes such as: poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, economic stagnation and political instability.
These are well known statements we hear from some academic institutions and media.    Some questions arise from these statements. Is population growth a threat for mankind? Is the world overpopulated? Is overpopulation a real threat or it is just a myth which diverts attention away from the real causes? Are these problems mentioned above, the effects of overpopulation or is overpopulations itself an effect? These are some questions which this paper will attempt to analyze. Before we begin the main discussion, it would be useful to have some information about the concept of “Overpopulation”, and some theories about population size through our history. Where did these views derive from and who introduced it for the first time? In the next section some of these theories will be briefly explained.  

1-The History of population’s Theories:
The concept of population size and population growth has been interesting subject for mankind since ancient time. Two main reasons have been the motivation for population size: Religious dogma and power. Zoroastrianism, Christianity and Islam have encouraged their followers to be “Fruitful and Multiply” and populate the Earth. On the other hand, some ancient civilizations such as Greeks and Romans advocated maximizing population size in order to become more powerful and stronger than other nations (Britannica,2009).
1-1- Mercantilists:
Between the 16th and 18th century most European societies were dominated by mercantilists. This economic group believed that large population provides larger labour supply, markets, armies for defence and foreign expansion such as colonialization. Their slogan was “The larger the population, the richer the nation”. Therefore, most of these countries emphasized and focused on population growth (Britannica,2009).
1-2- Physiocrats:
In 18th century another school of thought that was popular in Europe, was “The Physiocrats”.
The Physiocrats were economists who believed that the wealth of a nation is derived from the value of agricultural land and agricultural development. This group argued that economic wealth can be achieved from land and agriculture not from population growth (Britannica,2009).
1-3- Utopians:
Another school of thought in the 18th century was the Utopians. This group believed that humans are mature enough to manage their own lives. Therefore, societies do not need coercive institutions such as police, law, property ownership and family. They believed that all amount of resources must be controlled by all people in society and if there is any limits in population growth, it must be established by people in society. One of the leading proponents of this view was Daniel Malthus the father of Thomas Robert Malthus the founder of social demography. T.R. Malthus was influenced by his father to ideas about population size, food production and relationship between these two concepts. (Britannica,2009). Now we have some knowledge about these theories it would be useful to know who explored modern demography for first time. In the next section Malthus’s population theory will be discussed.

2-Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834):
Malthus was a British political economist and demographer. His major contribution to economic and social thought came in the essay “The principles of population”. This controversial theory made him one of the central figures in population debates in the 19th and 20th centuries (Elwell,2006). Today some scholars known as “Neo-Malthusians” use Malthus’s theory and assert that contemporary problems such as poverty and environmental degradation in developing countries are the effects of overpopulation. In order to understand the Neo-Malthusian view is better to have some knowledge about Malthus’s social theory. 

2-1- Malthus Social Theory :( Elwell,2006)
The population theory of Malthus has been rejected by many scholars, but without any doubt it can be said that his ideas have had important effects, not only in demography, but also in public policy, classical & neoclassical economy and biology. In 1798, Malthus published the first edition of his essay anonymously. In that time, some Utopians scholars like    M. Condorcet and W. Godwin had published their views and predicted a future world without disease, anguish, melancholy, or resentment (Leathers&Foster,2004). In fact, Malthus wrote his essay in response to the Utopians, but the lack of empirical evidence and anonymity of the writer caused that this essay became the target of broad discussion and attack. These criticisms stimulated Malthus to collect more data and evidence in order to better defends his hypothesis, which he pursued in future editions of his essay. In his essay, Malthus analyzed the relationship between population growth and food resources.

According to Malthus, the humankind has two basic needs: food and sex. The first need leads humankind to production of food and the later to reproduction of children. Malthus stated “The rate of reproduction is higher than the production of food”. Malthus argued that the population size (unchecked) increases in a geometrical ratio ie.2,4,8,16,32,64 and food resources increase in an arithmetical ratio ie.1,2,3,4,5,6. He stated that the population will be double in size in next 25 years and our food resources will not be enough to feed all the population. Therefore, we must check the population growth by using two types of control: Preventive and Positive checks which both have negative consequences for individuals as well as societies. 

2-2- Preventive Check:
According to Malthus, the preventive check can be done in different ways. The ideal type for Malthus was, to practice the celibacy before marriage and marry late until a couple can support their children. Malthus believed this action creates misery for humankind. He stated that desire for sex is one of the basic human needs and constraining this desire leads the individual towards “unnatural acts” such as prostitution, and the use of birth control. Malthus argued that by using preventive check some other problems will b occur in society.
First it increases unhappiness among men and women. Second it decreases life expectancy, as an effect of sexually transmitted diseases and drugs. Finally, the practice of non-productive sexuality destroys the virtues and purity of manners in family as well as society (Elwell,2006).

2-3- Positive Check:
Malthus stated that there must be balance between the population size and subsistence from the environment. He argued that the lack of space for grows and nutrition enforces animals and plants use this type of check and they do not feed their offspring. In humankind this positive check would be some natural or artificial disasters which reduce the large number of human populations such as, famine, disease, hard labour, misery, war and unwholesome occupations.
Based on these statements Malthus illustrated cyclical relationship between production and reproduction. He argued when the food production increases, the price of food will decrease and this easy access to cheap food stimulates the families to have more children. The rise in population creates two problems. First the demand for food increases and as a result the prices go up and second the number of workers increases and as a result the wages decrease and through an unfair competition the new labourers will work harder, longer and cheaper.

These events induce the farmers to increase the productivity by hiring more workers and putting more land under cultivation. And again, this increase in productivity stimulates reproduction. According to Malthus, this cycle is not static because some other events such as wars, disease, economic cycles, technological breakthrough and government action can influence and disrupt it. Malthus claimed that this problem has always existed and will continue in the future societies. Thus, he concluded that inequality lies in the structure of human societies and that equal distribution of wealth and resources to all can not be achieved.

He stated that every society needs a working class and the labourers are responsible to wrest resources from nature. He believed that self-interest and private property provide stimulation and motivation for human thought and action. In this case, Malthus stated that inequality is a natural phenomenon in the social structure of human society. In fact, Malthus could not analyze logically the cause of poverty in his social theory, although, he did not believe that the poor people were responsible for their condition and he said the poor Are the unhappy persons who, in the great lottery of life, have drawn a blank” (Elwell,2006).

As mentioned in the beginning of this paper, Malthus’s theory was controversial idea in those years at different fields. However, Malthus was a proponent of free medical care for the poor, universal education and democratic institutions which in those years were radical ideas, but many scholars such as Marx criticized him and some religious institutes accused him to blasphemy. Marx harshly criticized Malthus theory and called him a “Miserable parson” guilty of publishing “Vile and infamous doctrine”. Marx stated that these problems which Malthus states occur only in capitalist systems. He argued that under socialism and with functioning state the surplus product of labour and wealth will be distributed equally among all people in society and this will eliminate the poverty (Britannica,2009) On the contrary there were some other scholars which appreciated Malthus ideas. Charles Darwin the founder of Evolution Theory acknowledged a great debt to Malthus in the development of his theory of Natural Selection (Britannica). Besides social theory, it can be said that Malthus was one of the scholars during the Enlightenment that provided rational explanations for social development. Like a philosopher he used reason and empirical data to postulate abstract theories in different fields in society such as economy, population and the relationships between them.
 This was a short explanation about Malthus and his social theory. In the next section the view of Neo-Malthusians will be explained. This school of thought believes that all contemporary problems are the effects of overpopulation.

3- Neo-Malthusians view:
One of the most influential views at the present time about population is Neo-Malthusianism.   The proponents of this view based on Malthus social theory argue that rapid population growth causes different social, environmental, economic and political problems.
P. Ehrlich in his book” The Populations Bomb” (1974) states that:
“Remember, overpopulation does not normally mean too many people for the area of a country, but too many people in relation to the necessities and amenities of life. Overpopulation occurs when numbers threaten values”.
He continues that the world is running out of food because of overpopulation and according to him “the battle to feed humanity is lost”. He states that half of the world population suffers from little food and scarcity of proteins and vitamins in their diet.                                                                                   

Furthermore, he continues that rapid population growth has influenced the face of the Earth and as a result some organisms both plants and animals are now extinct. Based on these explanations, he concludes that environmental degradation has negative impacts on human life not only physically but also mentally and as a result we are witnessing more riots, rising crime rates, disaffection of youth, and increased drug usage in our societies (Ehrlich,1974).
Some other Neo-Malthusian scholars suggest that government must be more involved and, in some cases, must impose punishments for people who do not follow the population control program.
One of the strongest positions on population control comes from Dr. Garret Hardin when he says “In the long run voluntarism is insanity. The result will be continued uncontrolled population growth” (Ben.Wattenberg,1974). In this particular case it means that it is necessary for a government to enforce the people to have fewer children.
These scholars blame the overpopulation in developing countries for the responsible cause of environmental degradation. In different international and domestic conferences, they argue that deforestation and air pollution occurring in developing countries, threaten the whole world. According to this view, the overexploitation of lands and natural resources causes these environmental problems. Generally, the whole Neo-Malthusian view can be illustrated more in paragraph below. This paragraph states that:
“In the New Malthusian view it is argued that rapid population growth results in widespread poverty, economic stagnation, environmental destruction, rapid urbanization, unemployment, and political instability. During the years of Cold War and the Vietnam War, in particular the view prevailed that overpopulation, resulting in mass hunger, was a breeding ground for revolutionary activity”. (Hewitt& Smyth,2000).

At this point we have some knowledge about Malthus social theory and Neo-Malthusian view. In order to illustrate more our discussion, it would be useful to have some knowledge about the theory of demographic transition.

4- The Demographic Transition Theory :(Leathers&Foster,2004)
This theory classifies the population growth by considering the fertility and mortality. The first formulation was explored by English demographer Warren Thompson in 1929 and later developed by Frank Notestein in 1945 (Britannica,2009). According to this view the World population growth passes through four stages.
4-1- Stage I
Preindustrial stage: In this stage both fertility and mortality are unchecked. The birth rates are higher than death rates. However, some disasters such as wars, famines and epidemic diseases cause population loss, but population grows slowly.
4-2- Stage II
Mortality Decline before fertility decline: In this stage by help of better public medical care, better food, and water supplies, death rates decrease and life expectancy increases. If the birth rate does not change by some disastrous events, the population will grow rapidly.
4-3- Stage III
Fertility decline: As a result of more urbanization and industrialization the birth rate usually decreases because more people are interested to limit their family size. Maybe periodic population grows rapidly, but when the death rates and death rates are even the population grows slowly and may even fall to zero or below.


4-4- Stage IV
Modern Stage: In this level, both the birth rate and the death rate are low and population size is stable. The family size is small at about two children per family and if the fertility rate increases, population size increases slowly. The figure 1 below illustrates the demographic transition theory.
Population
                                                                   Time 
        A                 B               C                D
Figure 1: Demographic transition theory :(Leathers&Foster,2004)

A: Stage I: High birth &death rates.
B: Stage II: Birth rate high, declining mortality.
C: Stage III: Declining birth rate.
D: Stage IV: Low birth&death rate.

There are several reasons which confirm the demographic transition theory. Below are some examples that will be discussed.  Based on demographic transition it can be concluded that:
First, developed countries passed through these stages and are at stage IV and in some cases even the birth rate is less than death rate in these countries. For example, statistic shows that Sweden before 1805 was in the last point of stage A with almost equal birth and death rates. From 1805 until 1875 Sweden passed Stage B, when the death rates decreased. Since 1875 until 1975 was Sweden in stage C, as birth rates decreased faster than death rates. Since then until now is Sweden in stage D and that means birth and death rates are almost equal and it can be said that the birth rate is less than the death rate.
Second, a comparison of population growth rates between developed and developing countries show that the birth rate in developing countries is higher than developed countries.
These are the population growth rates of three continents in the period 1995-2000.
- Africa: 2.35 percent per year  
- Asia: 1.41 percent per year
- Europe: 0.02 percent per year

These statistics shows also that developed countries (Europe) are in the last stage (D) of demographic transition.(Leathers&Foster,2004)
In order to illustrate more differences, let us compare two countries from developed and developing countries, Norway and Afghanistan.

Year
Population growth rate (%)
Year
Population growth rate (%)
2000
0.5
2000
3.54
2001
0.49
2001
3.48
2002
0.47
2002
3.43
2003
0.46
2003
3.38
2004
0.41
2004
4.92
2005
0.4
2005
4.77
2006
0.38
2006
2.67
2007
0.363
2007
2.625
2008
0.35
2008
2.626
                        (Norway)                                                          (Afghanistan)
Table 1 :( (Indexmundi.com,2009)
The table 1 illustrates that the population growth rate in Afghanistan is much higher than in Norway. Other statistics released by some international organizations also confirm that population growth in developing countries is much higher than developed countries. But these questions still remain: Is there any relevant relationship between Malthus, Neo-Malthusian theories and development in the third world countries? Are developing countries poor because of overpopulation? Is overpopulation a cause or an effect?  What are the causes of overpopulation?  These questions will be discussed in next section.

 5- Discussion:
 Malthus can be named as the founder of modern demography, but there are some contradictions in his social theory. He did not predict the technological, social and cultural development and their effects in human life. At the present time based on technological inventions in different fields of science, agricultural production has increased enough to feed the total population in the world. Different medical methods have been explored in order to limit or prevent pregnancy such as contraception, sterilization and abortion. 
 On the other hand, these scientific developments have been accompanied with social and cultural progressive changes such as small family size.

Logical philosophy states that when we are facing a problem, the use of the cause and effect formula would be the best alternative. Otherwise, the problem will not be solved fundamentally. One of the major contradictions in Neo-Malthusian view is that they do not analyze the poverty and overpopulation in developing countries through this casual reasoning formula. In fact, the Neo-Malthusian view tries to divert the public discourse from the real causes of poverty by emphasizing the effects of overpopulation.
However, based on statistics published by some international organizations such as UN it can be derived that population growth rates in developing countries are higher than developed countries, but it has to be emphasized that overpopulation is one of the effects of poverty. It means the people are not poor because they have many children; but have many children because they are poor. In order to highlight more our discussion, let us examine the cause of overpopulation.

5-1- Some of The causes of overpopulation:
As mentioned above the population growth is higher in developing countries. There are some socio-economic and political factors involved in this case. Here below some of them will be briefly explained:
5-1-1- The lack of access to proper health care, food, drinking water, and education increase the infant mortality.
The high infant mortality rates in developing countries enforce the women to have more births in order to be sure that some of children survive until adulthood.

5-1-2- Severe poverty forces the parents to have more children.
Because the children have economic values for parents and in some cases, they may relieve their mothers from work. In developing countries, children begin to work from the age of 6 or 7 years old. For example, in Iran in the countryside the children are responsible for some activities like: Working on land, cleaning, caring for chickens, ducks, domestic animals, and younger children. In the city, some of children have to work for wages in different occupations such as tailors, barbers, etc.

5-1-3- Children have more security in elderly time for parents.
There is no welfare and social security for people especially for the elderly. The children (especially sons) are responsible to provide security for their parents during their old age. Therefore, parents try to have more children in order to ensure their future.

5-1-4- Having more children equals more power during a conflict:
The lack of rule of law and instability forces the parents to have more children in order to defend themselves against other ethnic group offences. The countryside in Iran could be an example where some families are proud and strong because they have 7 or 8 sons.

5-1-5- Gender inequality:
The lack of good governance and proper education has created traditional and patriarchal societies in developing countries. As a result, the women have unequal rights and this has created social and cultural obstacles for women. In some developing countries, young women are forced to marry under the age of 18 years old and the best role for them is to be a “Good mother”. In most of developing countries, they do not have even control over their bodies (fertility and sexuality) and abortion is prohibited for them. (Iran based on Islamic law).

Based on the statements noted above, it can be concluded that overpopulation in developing countries is an effect of poverty itself. In order to solve this problem, we have to find a fundamental solution for abolishing poverty.
6- Conclusion:
In conclusion I have to imply that there is no relevant relation between these Malthusian theories and development in the third world countries and overpopulation can not be the cause of underdevelopment and poverty. Based on the demographic transition theory and other statistics published by international organizations like UN it can be said that population growth rates in developing countries are higher than developed countries. This statement also shows that countries with high income have less overpopulation problem. As it noted in this paper the Neo-Malthusian view claims that rapid population growth causes different problems like, Poverty, economic stagnation, environmental destruction, air pollution etc.
As I explained in this paper all these problems are the results of underdevelopment and poverty in third world countries. Poverty is the cause of overpopulation and criminal activities. When people in third world countries do not have access to clean energy, they use fuel-wood. When they can not afford fertilizers for their agricultural land, they burn the land and leave it for one year to be suitable and strong enough again for cultivation.
Here I have to emphasize that the only solution for all these problems is sustainable development. Sustainable development can be achieved through good governance.
In order to achieve sustainable development some policies must be taken seriously and simultaneously by governments, including:
- Good macro and micro economic development programs.
- Good land reform and agricultural development.
- Fundamental investments in human capital. It means proper education, healthcare, family planning, improved nutrition and anti poverty programs.
- Rule of law, civil and civic society.
In addition, one of the most important factors would be establishing, democracy, freedom and equal rights for both men and women.
All these factors must be done simultaneously, because all of them are related to each other and none of them can be achieved fundamentally without others.

M.Sirani        5.5.2009 Norway
- References:  

Aiken. D. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (1974) (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Diamond, J. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Darwin, C. (2009) Population: Available at: http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9108576 , Accessed: (25, 04, 2009)

Ehrlich, P. R. (1974) The Population Bomb, Cox and Wyman Ltd, London

Ehrlich, P. R. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Elwell, F. W (2006) The Classical Tradition: A Summary of: Malthus, Marx, Webber, Durkheim, Rogers State University.

Figure Demographic Transition Theory: (2004) in Leathers, H. D. & Foster, P. The World Food Problem: Tackling The Causes of Undernutrition In The Third World 3e, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. Colorado 80301.

Godwin, W. (2004) in Leathers, H. D. & Foster, P. The World Food Problem: Tackling The Causes of Undernutrition In The Third World 3e, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. Colorado 80301.

Hardin.G. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.

Hewitt, T. & Smyth, I. (2000): in Allen, T. & Thomas, A (eds) Poverty And Development Into the 21st Century, In association with OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS.


 Leathers, H. D. & Foster, P. (2004): The World Food Problem: Tackling The Causes of Undernutrition In The Third World 3e, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. Colorado 80301.

Marx, K. (2009) Population: Available at: http://search.eb.com/eb/article-9108576 , Accessed: (25, 04, 2009).

Accessed:  (28, 04, 2009)

Wattenberg. B. (1974) in Bahr, H. M. & Chadwick, B. A. & Thomas, D. L. (eds) Population, Resources, And The Future: Non-Malthusian Perspectives, Brigham Young University press, Provo, Utah.


2008 Africa population: Available at: http://www.prb.org/pdf08/africadatasheet2008.pdf
Accessed: (27, 04, 2009)