Thursday, September 21, 2017

The Kurdish Referendum In Iraq Means the Starting Point For a Long Term Multidimensional Conflicts in Iraq & Probably in Syria As Well.


This event will unify the four political systems in Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey against all Kurds in the region. In other words, someone like President Erdogan will shake hand to his former enemy Bashar Assad to crush the Kurds. This event might highly likely force Turkey to deploy more troops to Iraq & Syria; a type of military invasion, depends on the scale of tension; if it is needed. This event, in addition, will empower the position of Iran & Russia and on the contrary will weaken the position of NATO in the region. Simply, because it will increase the level of cooperation between Turkey and the East.

Note: Iraq & probably Syria will highly likely become clear examples of  "Hobbesian Society: The war of all against all"; a multidimensional conflict. 

M. Sirani             21.09.2017

Monday, September 18, 2017

Warning: Like A Black Hole, A Military Confrontation With North Korea Will Suck Many Countries Into the Conflict.


By this, i mean in addition to the USA, South Korea, Japan & North Korea, many other countries will undoubtedly & inevitably involve in such a conflict. If we evaluate various aspects of this conflict, we will come to the conclusion that there are many similar factors between the First World War & a possible war with North Korea.

M. Sirani           18.09.2017 

Sunday, September 10, 2017

M. Saakashvili Entered Ukraine. Is This A Starting Point For A Coup Or Beginning A New Civil War in the Western Part of Ukraine?


This is a fact that without some external & internal supporters, M. Saakashvili couldn't & didn't go to Ukraine. Whether this is a temporary event like an attempt for coup to remove P. Poroshenko from the power or a starting point of a long term event like a new civil war in the Western part of Ukraine are hard to predict at this stage. But there is something clear and that is that Ukraine will highly likely experience a series of internal chaos & instability in the next coming days, weeks & possibly months. The emergence of such an event along with today's event indicate a simple fact that current political system in Ukraine has a very shaky & vulnerable foundation. To put it simply, the political system in Ukraine needs some fundamental & constructive reform & adjustment. Otherwise, the instability & chaos in Ukraine will hit the EU & NATO in various terms, forms & scales based on numerous reasons in the future.

Note: I can guess, who is/are the possible external actor/s and what they possibly are pursuing in this attempt. But i don't have any credible & reliable evidence to underpin my argument in this regard. I leave this issue aside. Because, I don't like my short note would be labeled with "Conspiracy Theory".   

M. Sirani                         10.09.2017

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Warning: A Military Confrontation With North Korea:


When a political system is unable to deal with some challenges at home, a war with a foreign adversary would become a tasty option & scapegoat.
I warn you about any military confrontation with North Korea. Such an event will be the most horrific, devastating & destructive historical event since the Second World War in every possible terms for many countries around the world including the USA.
In case of such an event the USA might militarily win the war. But the overall negative consequences of such a war will deeply damage the USA in many fronts. Among the consequences of such a war three events are inevitable.

A- Due to massive destruction & collateral damages, the ordinary people in South Korea & Japan will undoubtedly force their political systems to shut down all U.S. bases and demand the total withdrawal of U.S. troops from their countries.

B- Following this horrific event, Japan and South Korea will develop their own nuclear weapons.

C- The U.S. global supremacy, which has been built based on some victories in the Second World War & Cold War era will be badly crushed for ever following this war. This simply means the beginning of the end of supremacy & domination of the USA in many fronts at regional & global level.

In short, the occurrence of such a disastrous war, many issues around the world at global and regional level will change in an extreme and sudden manner. Most of these changes will not be pleasant for USA & some of its close allies. To put it simply, we will enter a totally new era in many fronts.

Note: What i explored above is just a scratch about this event. The overall negative consequences of such an event in different terms at regional and global level are much deeper & broader. 

M. Sirani                      05.09.2017 

Friday, August 11, 2017

The Chance that President Trump Will Allow Iran Reach the Untouchable Position of North Korea in Terms of Nuclear Weapon & Ballistic Missile Program, is Very Low. In This Respect, the JCPOA is A Primary and Important Barrier.

The U.S. Special Forces in Libya (Another Quagmire, due to the Fact that the USA Does Not Have a Clear, Effective & Coherent Strategy With Regards to Many Issues in the Region).

How The Current Tension With North Korea Might Change The Reaction of Trump Administration With Regards to Iran & The JCPOA? (A Possibly Dangerous Situation).

Briefly: (This short note has been written in 15 min without editing, etc etc).

This is a fact that the recent nuclear and ballistic missile activities along with planning to launch some missile toward Guam (A U.S. Territory) by North Korea have put the Trump administration in a very critical position. According to some analysis, North Korea has so far obtained between 50-60 nuclear bombs and its recent activities show that the country has had a rapid progress on its ballistic missile program as well. To put it simply, North Korea has achieved a capability to hit many places in the USA by its nuclear-ballistic missiles. This issue has put the USA in a very critical situation. The Trump administration cannot simply ignore the recent activities and the threat of North Korea. At the same time, trying to solve this complicated issue through a type of preemptive strike could be costly in different terms not only for the USA and North Korea, but also for some other countries in the South East Asia due to the nuclear & ballistic missile capability of both the USA & North Korea.

Whether the USA & North Korea would ease the tension and solve this conflict through diplomacy or the rhetoric wars between Washington & Pyongyang would end up into a devastating military confrontation are beyond the scope of this short writing. But this tension would lead us to another important issue and that is the JCPOA; the nuclear deal with Iran.

As we all know, whether during the presidential race or his presidency, Donald. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the JCPOA is the worst deal ever that the USA has made. In addition, President Trump has stated in many occasions that he would like to tear up the deal. The recent tension with North Korea and its complicated details, would undoubtedly put the Trump administration in another complicated position. The Trump administration would highly likely try to have a simple comparison between current North Korea and Iran. The administration might highly likely come to the following conclusions:
North Korea has nuclear bomb & ballistic missiles. Military strike against North Korea is dangerous, costly and cannot fundamentally change anything with regards to nuclear & ballistic missile capability of North Korea. North Korea has passed the red line for ever in this respect.

But, what about Iran? Apparently Iran has not obtained nuclear bomb yet. In addition, the ballistic missile program of Iran has not progressed as North Korean to cause a serious threat for the USA. But, if the time passes, Iran might highly likely pass the red line the same as North Korea after couple months or years. In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA cannot curb or counter Iran.
Based on this calculation, the Trump administration might highly likely tear up the JCPOA or launch a preemptive strike against Iran to prevent the country to reach the untouchable position of North Korea.

In short, the current tension with North Korea would undoubtedly impact the JCPOA and the policy of the Trump administration toward Iran in the near future.

M. Sirani                                11.08.2017

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

The USA Has "One Last Option" to Solve the Problem With North Korea, Before Any Military Confrontation (I'm Not Sure Whether Trump Administration is Aware of That or Not).

Developing A New Grand Strategy For Asia & South East Asia Is A Necessary Move For the USA.


The USA has moved in a totally wrong direction in many areas since 1990. Otherwise, the country could have had a much better and stronger position at global level. In this respect, i have to admit that some ideas of both H. Kissinger & Z. Brzezinski have played an important role in this matter.  Cleaning up these messes, however, at this stage is not an easy task; but it is not impossible.

At the present time, the USA should develop a totally new Grand Strategy, which includes and covers some important issues such as A- The rise of China and its expansionist behavior in different terms, B- North Korea & its nuclear-ballistic missile activities, C- The rise & activities of various radical Islamic groups, and D- Curbing & countering drug cartels & drug trafficking.

Note: With some reactionary moves, you cannot deal with these critical issues in Asia. 

M. Sirani           09.08.2017                  

Thursday, August 3, 2017

Merit-Based Immigration System Does Not Function in the USA (This is A Clear "Mirror Imaging" & Wrong Copy & Paste From Canada & Australia).


Merit-Based immigration system has functioned for some countries like Canada & Australia since some decades ago. But this system does not function in the USA based on numerous reasons. This is a clear Mirror Imaging and the USA will suffer a lot in different terms in the next couple of years following the implementation of this policy.

Note: This example shows some weaknesses in terms of planning, policy analysis, policy implementation and risk management within Trump administration.

M. Sirani                   03.08.2017

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Just Remember This: Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi or Mousavi or Rouhani (Good Cop-Bad Cop Policy).


Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi, Mousavi, Rouhani or some other so-called "Reformist Figures" (Good Cop). Since couple days ago, we understood that the Senate has approved a series of sanctions against Iran, Russia & North Korea. Let see what has happened in Iran. Just a few examples:

1- Mr. Freydoon the brother of president Rouhani was arrested and was in jail for one night.
2- M. Karrobi was hospitalized due to probably hearth problem.
3- Today, the children of M. H. Mousavi state that the health condition of their father has been deteriorated since last night.

 The combination of these external and internal events show one thing: Good Cop & Bad Cop policy of Iranian Regime and the naivety of some western politicians and pundits, who after nearly 40 years would be misleading by the Iranian Regime again & again by the same good cop & bad cop policy.

M. Sirani                        02.08.2017 

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

RE Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Activities of North Korea (I Have Developed A Plan, Which Might Solve This Problem).


The USA and its allies can continue with a type of Cat & Mouse Game (Imposing sanctions, isolating, etc) with North Korea. But these policies, no matter how harsh, cannot curb, counter or stop the nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea. This is a fact. In addition, the chance that both China & North Korea would accept  the recent Kissinger's proposal in this regard is very low or i might say nearly impossible.

In this regard, i have developed a plan, which might put an end to nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea.

M. Sirani                 01.08.2017

Monday, July 17, 2017

Designating IRGC As A Terrorist Organization?


Personally, i believe this is a move, which the USA and its close allies should have done it long time ago.

BUT, due to the fact that The USA, some powerful states within the EU along with some powerful Arab states do not have a clear, effective and coherent strategy with regards to the Iranian regime and many other issues in the Middle East, i can say that such a move not only would not counter and curb the Iranian regime in an effective and powerful manner, but also it would create additional tension and conflict across the region. To put it simply, the negative consequences of such a move would be more than its benefit for the USA & its allies in the region at the present time.

Note: Without a clear strategy & a short and long term plan, you cannot cause any harm to the Iranian regime by such reactionary moves. 38 or 39 years ago, you could; but now now.  

M. Sirani                          17.07.2017

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

China's First Overseas Military Base in Djibouti. This is Just the Beginning.


The plan for this military base started in 2015 and as the media claim, China is deploying its troops to Djibouti now. Military base of China in Djibouti would empower the Geo-Political position of China, Russia and Iran with regards to many events & areas in the Middle East and some part of Africa.This is the first overseas military base of China, but it would not be the last one. In the next couple of years, we will highly likely witness more Chinese military base alongside the Belt & Road Initiative of China.

Note: When it comes to the Soft Power & Economic expansion, China has nearly reached its peak. Now is the time for military expansion to preserve the Soft Power & Economic achievements.
I have said this before and say it again: If many factors remain the same as they are today, in the next couple of years, we will experience a bipolar world; wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China (And its close allies) and B-Germany (And its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, China and Germany will surpass & bypass the USA & UK in different terms & scales. Such an issue has already been imposed on the UK following the Brexit.

M. Sirani                           12.07.2017

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Programs of North Korea.

 I wish the current U.S.  decision makers & high ranking politicians understand a fact that: the world has changed.

Without an effective & clear strategy with regards to Russia (And tension in Ukraine), China & many issues in the Middle East (for example Syria, Iran) the USA cannot achieve an effective, fundamental & sustainable solution with regard to North Korea.

Note: The USA needs some fundamental changes (in some areas) and adjustment (in some) in its foreign policy. 

M. Sirani                     05.07.2017 

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Upcoming G20 Summit in Hamburg (2017) Will Not Be A Pleasant Event for the USA. The Result of This Summit Will Impact the U.S. Economy.

Unless Trump administration would change & adjust some of its policies and method of implementation of its policies (Which personally, i don't think it would happen):

M. Sirani                      01.07.2017

GOP Healthcare Bill (The USA); A Big Mistake.


As it appears, the U.S. Republican Party has not been able to introduce a more comprehensive and better health care bill than Obamacare after nearly 8 years. However, if some rumors, which say GOP Health care bill will cut the medicaid and health care for couple of millions low income American people in the next coming years, are true, i can give you 1000% guarantee that D. Trump will not win the second presidential race in 2020.

M. Sirani                          01.07.2017   

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Federalism For Syria Means An Endless Conflict (The Era that Two Person Like Sykes & Picot Sit Somewhere and With the Help of A Ruler Divide the Middle East is OVER; WAKE UP).


As it appears the USA and some of U.S. allies are trying to establish some type of Federal political system in Syria. Creating a safe zone in Northern part of Syria for Kurds and recent training & supporting the Syrian rebels in the South (Syrian border with Jordan) could be understood in this respect. By these moves, as it appears the USA would try to establish a type of Federal political system consisted of three parts in Syria.

1- The Northern part under the command of the Syrian Kurds,

2- The Middle part under the command of Bashar Assad, which includes Shitte, Alawites and Assad's supporters.

3- The Southern part under the command of Sunni people & mainly for Sunni people.

By implementing this plan, the USA would mainly try to:

A- Weaken the central government of Bashar Assad.

B- Reduce the influence of Russia & Iran in Syria.

C- Accordingly weakening the position of Hezbollah in Syria and to some extent in Lebanon, and

D- Create a so-called safe zone for Israel in the Southern part of Syria.  

If my assumption in this regard is correct, Trump administration is trying to pursue H. Kissinger's proposal as a solution for Syrian civil war. Those, who are interested in this concept, can read Kissinger's proposal in his article entitled "A path Out of the Middle East Collapse" published on 16.10.2015. However,
based on many reasons and theoretical concepts such as Hobbsian "Formation of State-Government" and Habermasian "Communicative Rationality" i can clearly say that the idea of Federalism for Syria is just a joke; does not function in Syria; it cannot create peace and stability in Syria. On the contrary, this plan, in case of fully implementation, not only would create an endless civil war within Syria but also intensify the tension between Iraqi central government & Iraqi Kurdistan and accordingly would force Turkey to perform some military action against Kurds in both Iraq & Syria. This plan, in addition, would jeopardize the safety & security of Israel in the long term.

However, if some actors are interested to weaken the central government (Assad's regime) and accordingly create an endless civil war & conflict within Syria in order to achieve & preserve some economic & Geo-Strategic interests in the long term, the idea of Federalism in Syria is a perfect proposal. Current disastrous political system in Iraq and continuous tension between Iraqi central government and semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan confirms my explanation in this regard to some extent.

 M. Sirani                               29.06.2017 

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

The Emergence of A New Bipolar World in the Next 10-15 Years; Germany & China Will Surpass & Sideline the USA.


If many factors remain as they are today, we will highly likely observe a bipolar world in the next 10-15 years (more or less), wherein the world will be divided into two camps of A-China and its close allies, B- the EU (mainly Germany and its close allies). In such a hypothetical scenario, these two major powers (Camps) will surpass & sideline the USA & UK in many areas.

Note: Many factors & actors have sidelined the UK already. In this respect, the USA also is not in a very good shape, based on what i have observed in the last 5 months presidency of Mr. Trump. My prediction in this regard will highly likely come true; unless some major changes will happen in the USA or the EU or China, for example a major shift in foreign policy of the USA or collapse of the EU & EURO or a real revolution in China.

M. Sirani                      27.06.2017 

The USA Threatens Syria, Says: Assad is Planing Chemical Weapon Attack (Warning: Don't Think About Broad Military Intervention in Syria).


I have repeatedly said this before and say it again:
Any military intervention in Syria would be devastating for the USA and its regional allies due to many reasons including the fact that the U.S. , EU and Arab states do not have clear & coherent strategies with regards to many events in the Middle East & Africa.

M. Sirani                        27.05.2017