Here below is my primary evaluation with regards to the current Covid-19 pandemic and the serious threat of a devastating Endemic, which is highly likely ahead of us.
Based on some factors such as:
A- Rapid Mutation of Covid-19: This is a scientifically proven fact that all viruses mutate. So is the case of Covid-19 virus. But different evidences indicate a fact that Covid-19 mutates faster than some other viruses. According to the research of two Chinese Scientists (Published on the beginning of 2020), Covid-19 virus had more than 30 mutations in the bodies of 11 Chinese patients in less than a few weeks (Around 2-3 months).
B- High Speed of Spreading & High Level of Adaptability of Covid-19 virus to New Environment and New Host:
Up until the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, generally speaking, Covid-19 viruses were found mostly in the bodies of only bats. As we have observed in the past nearly 1.5 year, Covid-19 virus has expanded its territory and can be found not only in the bodies of humans but also other animals such as apps, lions, dogs, cats, etc. This brief explanation simply indicates a fact that when it comes to its hosts and vectors, Covid-19 has had an extraordinary expansion. So far, I haven’t seen or heard any news regarding the existence of Covid-19 in the bodies of some Maritime Species. If Covid-19 would be able to enter that area and would be able to survive in that environment, the entire world would face a devastating & irreversible catastrophe for decades or maybe for centuries to come. This is a serious matter, which should not be ignored nor underestimated, in my opinion.
C- Limited Duration of Vaccine Immunity: As far as I know, most of the vaccines against Covid-19 can provide immunity for humans for nearly 6 months. We should also bear in mind that the chance that any pharmacological company would be able to develop a permanent vaccine against this virus and its variants in the next coming months, years or even decade is very low. Considering these factors, rapid mutations of this virus and some resistible examples such as South Africa & UK Variants of this virus, we can come to the factual conclusion that current Covid-19 vaccines would not be able to deal with this virus and its mutated cousins in an effective & proper manner in the next coming months & years and this virus has come to stay with us for a long period of time.
D- Negligence in Vaccination: Based on many reasons such as the lack of trust to science or governmental institutions or negligence, some people might escape the vaccination or ignore the necessary second shot of their vaccines. All these cases are dangerous specially the latest one. Injecting the first shot but ignoring the second - complementary shot along with rapid mutation characteristic of this virus, would make Covid-19 stronger, more powerful and resistible with regards to many vaccines.
Based on what briefly explored above, I strongly believe that we are passing through Pandemic Phase and are going to enter the devastating phase of “Endemic”, when it comes to Covid-19 virus. In this respect, I strongly suggest that all the states would develop and design a comprehensive Preparedness & Contingency plan for the next coming years and beyond in dealing with this virus and its overall negative consequences in every possible term.
M. Sirani 27.04.2021