Friday, October 30, 2015

Syria Peace Talks in Vienna.


The group of Iran, Russia and China might finally come to the conclusion that somewhere in the future, Bashar Assad should leave the power. But this decision does not mean that these countries would entirely give up their economic and Geo-Strategic interests and advantages in Syria. In the final stage of this negotiation, there is high probability that Russia, Iran and China would agree to replace Bashar Assad with some other Syrian politician, which would maintain and preserve their economic and Geo-strategical interests in Syria.

For further info amid economic and Geo-Strategic interests of Russia & Iran in Syria, the reader can read my essay entitled "An assessment about the Syrian Civil War" in this blog.

M. Sirani                30.10.2015

U.S. To Deploy About 50 Special Forces To Syria. A Reactionary Move, Which is Too Short, Too Little, Too Late.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Hillary Clinton And Her Proposal Amid A No-Fly Zone in Syria.


It is really shocking me, when i see a well experienced politicians, the former first lady of the U.S. proposes such an idea at this stage.

In addition to nearly 80-100 (As far as i know, if i'm not wrong) airplanes necessary for such an operation, air defense system, maintenance, etc and the overall cost of conducting and preserving a No-Fly Zone in Syria, such an operation at this stage means a direct military confrontation with not only the Syrian army, but also the Russian, Iranian, Hezbollah, etc. Needless to explain that the recent Russia & Iran direct military intervention have already made the situation in Syria more critical.

Based on many reasons, the Syrian sky is already prone to a direct military confrontation between different states.

Based on all briefly noted above, I'm wondering: does H. Clinton have any military or political adviser or IR expert in her team?

M. Sirani                              29.10.2015  

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

The Newly Adapted Policy of the U.S. Amid Deploying Some Ground Force Into Iraq & Syria is A Combination of Buck-Passing & Offshore Balancing in the Favor of Iran & Russia. This policy, In addition, Would Empower & Strengthen the Hegemony of Iran in the Region.

Do you have some reliable, reasonable and logical answer for the following questions?

Strategy? Tactic? What do you want to achieve? How? Who are your trustworthy forces on the ground in both quantity & quality matters? What & how is the relationship between your trustworthy forces on the ground (Both Iraqi & Syrian) and the central governments in both states? What type of balance of power exists in these two battlefields between various internal & external actors? What type of advantages in various terms you have in these battles in comparison with your rivals?
Who collect your data on the ground? How trustworthy your informants & HUMINT are? What are the advantages of your rivals (e.g. Iran and other Shiite affiliates in both countries) in different terms?
Who analyze/s your data? and many other questions.

Note: As i follow the news in the region including the two battlefields in Iraq & Syria, it seems to me that current U.S. policy makers have a huge problem in all questions noted above. Needless to explore & confirm my statement in this matter, due to the fact that through the past 4/5 years, you have reach nothing in these battles.  (Once again: With emotional and reactionary move, you reach nothing).

M. Sirani          28.10.2015  

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

U.S. Boots On the Ground in Iraq & Syria Would Probably End Up to Another Failure, Due to the Lack of a Clear, Effective and Reasonable Strategy in the Middle East.


As far as the USA does not have a clear strategy with regards to various events in the Middle East including the current tensions in Iraq & Syria, this policy would also end up to another failure, which would be totally beneficial for Iran and its allies in the region.

By an emotional or spontaneous or reactionary move, you cannot solve the problem in the Middle East.

M. Sirani                     27.10.2015  

Sunday, October 25, 2015

As Far As the Ideological Vacuum and Undemocratic Political Systems Exist in the Middle East and Africa, ISIS, Al-Qaeda And Some Other Radical Islamic Groups Will Emerge and Rise in these Regions.

Briefly: This is a great topic for a comprehensive research, which its result can save the lives of millions of people in the next coming years & decades not only in the Middle East and Africa but also in the whole world, due to the fact that there are nearly 1,5 billion Muslims around the world.

As far as these two characteristics of the ideological vacuum and undemocratic political systems  (which each one of them causes different negative consequences within societies in these areas) exist, ISIS, Al-Qaeda and some other Islamic terrorist groups (From different branches of Islam) will emerge and rise in the Middle East and Africa. The western countries have missed nearly 25 years in this matter, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern camp, and still have no idea how to deal with this historical anomaly in a professional, appropriate and fundamental manner.

M. Sirani                      25.10.2015

Friday, October 23, 2015

Exclusive: Iraq Authorizes Russian Airstrikes Against ISIS (General Dempsey & Kenneth Pollack Should Follow the Development in Iraq).


Oops: Once again, Iran & Russia surprised you.

I anticipated this event through some notes long time ago. For further info, the readers can visit the following links:

1- You Are Shocking Me General Dempsey.

2- Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi Asked U.S. For Weapon.

3- What Is The Current Strategy of Russia in Syria? Do You Still Think Putin is Simply A Tactician?

M. Sirani                             23.10.2015

Iran (Politically & Militarily), China (Economically Through Development Programs) And Russia (Militarily, Economically) Will Swallow Afghanistan Somewhere in the Future.


Not to mention that the foundation of some of these issues has already started in Afghanistan. Based on many reasons, including geographical position, these countries have the upper hand with regards to the future of Afghanistan.

M. Sirani        23.10.2015

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

By This Letter, Ayatollah Khamenei Checkmated and At the Same Time Took the International Community, Laws and Conventions As Hostage For An Endless and Limitless Ransom. From Now On, No State Nor Any International Organization Can Do Anything At All With Regards to Illegitimate and Unlawful Activities of Iran; Simply Because, Iran Would Withdraw From the Nuclear Treaty.

Exclusive: In a Letter to Rouhani, Khamenei Endorsed the Nuclear Deal; But Reminded Him to Some Important Conditions (The End of Imposing Any Sanctions Based on Any Reason On Iran).

Briefly: I don't have the time to go through all the details of the letter. I just briefly reveals two points of the letter. (Iran won, all of you in the West lost badly & deeply).

In this letter, Khamenei reminds Rouhani to some important conditions with regards to the nuclear deal with 5+1.

One of them indicates a fact that imposing any sanctions on Iran based on any reason including terrorism or human rights in the next 8 years by any member of 5+1, means a clear violation of the nuclear deal. In such a scenario, Iran would withdraw from the nuclear deal.

Another condition is about the sanctions. According to Khamenei's letter, the fundamental structure of sanctions should totally be removed and the leaders of the USA and EU should confirm this issue through a written note. These two conditions simply are saying to the western countries that: Do not talk about snapshot or reversal of any sanctions in any area against Iran anymore. In other words, the wounded tiger (Iran) is totally out of the cage, and you cannot do anything about it. 

There are some other controversial conditions in this letter for example, with regards to Heavy Water Plant in Arak, the closure of Iran's PMD case by the IAEA and the notion that Iran should have 190,000 centrifuges at the end of 15 years.

In short, by this letter, Khamenei has checkmated and also has put the international community in a very critical position and that is that from now on, no state nor any international organization can do anything at all with regards to illegal, inhuman, illegitimate and unlawful activities of Iran in various terms and forms; due to the fact that Iran would withdraw from the treaty. In other words, by this move, Iran has taken the international community, laws and conventions as a hostage for an endless and limitless ransom.   

Note to the Western Countries:
As far as:
- You are promoting the Iranian Regime's lobbyists in different terms in your countries;
- You are using the Iranian Regime's lobbyists as Iran expert in your administration;
- You are conducting appeasement and apologist policy towards the Islamic Regime in order to secure your economic and Geo-strategic interests:
- You are ignoring the clear violation of human rights , pain and suffering of the Iranian people;
You deserve to be beaten and humiliated by the Islamic Regime in any battlefield.
Enjoy it and be prepared for full aggressive-offensive activities of Iran in the whole Middle East and a nuclear armed Iran somewhere in the future.

It should be mentioned that China & Russia are also swallowing Iran. But i don't write such a note to those totalitarian regimes; due to the fact that you (as the Western countries) are always screaming about human rights, liberal values and promoting these values in the world, not China, not Russia.

M. Sirani                             21.10.2015  

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Based on Many Reasons, it Seems The Third Intafada Has Begun.


The whole Middle East is on the verge of explosion, partly due to the weak and shaky nuclear deal with Iran, which is not acceptable for most of the countries in the region. The deal to a large extent change the balance of power in the region in the favor of Iran. As such, most of the countries in the region feel threatened and would try to gain power through offensive reaction with regards to their potential domestic as well as foreign enemies. If the situation continues in this way, we are going to reach the hypothetical world of Thomas Hobbes in the Middle East, i.e. "the war of all against all", due to the fact that there are some Shiite Muslims in all Arab countries.

Note: I repeat again: By some moves, i can change the balance of power in the Middle East against the Iranian Regime. By these moves, i can develop a new equilibrium in the Middle East and ease the tension to a large extent; much better than what we are observing today.

M. Sirani                             18.10.2015

Friday, October 16, 2015


For all the sins that i could do,
But I didn’t in the entire my life,
Burn my body after my death;
And throw my ashes into an ocean.
Wherein, there is no fisherman,
Nor any fishing net or fishing boat.
Let free fishes consume my ashes;
Let my exhausted soul reincarnates,
In the bodies of curious free fishes.
Maybe my wounded soul for once,
Tastes the real essence of freedom.
For, i was born, lived and died in captivity.

M. Sirani                  16.10.2015

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Iran's Long Range Ballistic Missiles Facility 500 Meters Underground (Film).

Iran's long range ballistic missiles facility 500 meters underground as the reporter in the film states. 
The film, however, shows that Iran has clearly violated the U.N. Security Council Resolution with regards to its missile programs. 

M. Sirani                   15.10.2015

Glorious Disobedience

While, he was trying to fly high,
Ugly vultures masked with smiley faces,
Wrapped in the dark square caps,
Shackled him on the ground,
With their filthy invisible wings,
Just because he loudly said no,
To their dirty secret game.
The vultures could cripple his body,
But not his mind, dignity and pride.

M. Sirani         Written on: 15.09.2015

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Thousands Iranian Ground Forces Have Arrived At Hamim Airport in Syria. The U.S. Has Also Delivered Massive Ammunition to the Syrian Rebels Yesterday.The Syrian Conflict Is Going To Become A Total War, A Type of Endless Multi-Proxy Wars Between Various Actors.


The results of such an event would be devastating for the whole region in different terms accompanied with the influx of massive refugees toward the neighboring countries and the EU & nothing else. The side effect of this event, (if the tension in Syria would intensify more than what we are observing today) undoubtedly would impact the shaky ceasefire in Ukraine and possibly beyond Ukraine in Baltic States as well in various forms.

M. Sirani                   13.10.2015

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Still Is Not Confirmed; A Russian Jet Was Shot Down By Turkish Forces After Violating Turkey's Airspace.


If this news is true and correct, we should be prepared for further complications and consequences with regards to current tension in the Middle East.

If this news is true, some of the basic and preliminary consequences would be:

1- The Syrian authority might give a strong warning to US-led coalition that from now on, they cannot conduct airstrike against ISIS positions inside Syria without permission from Assad's Regime. In other words, any violation in this matter would be answered by some Russian S-300 or S-400 anti-aircraft systems.

2- The second possibility would be intensifying tension in Ukraine.

In short, this event would intensify the tension not only in Syria but also in other areas in the region between different actors. Such an incident can drag the whole region into a broad and total war. I hope all the policy makers in this matter remember that the First World War was started with a single bullet.

M. Sirani                         10.10.2015


Thursday, October 8, 2015



Playing the role of a neutral judge
Between a rebellious passionate heart
And a stubborn logical mind
Means living in an eternal hell for ever

M. Sirani                         08.10.2015                        

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Let Me.

Let Me

Let me touch your warm hands
To feel the magic power of life
Let me sink in your sweet eyes
To feel the endless beauty of the world
Let me kiss your soft lips
To feel the real sense of love
Let me hold you for ever
To feel the real taste of immortality

M. Sirani            07.10.2015

Une nuit à Paris

Une nuit à Paris

The flying notes of solo piano,
Were softly floating in the air.
The shadows of burning candles,
Were quietly dancing tango on the walls.
Two exhausted glasses of wine,
That couldn’t get enough time to flirt with each other,
Were curiously watching the scene.
A few innocent red roses,
Were unfairly sacrificed everywhere on the floor.
Those were, the only privileged guests,
Who, were invited in that secret feast;
Wherein, the devilish temptation forced two souls,
To imitate the mating dance of king cobras,
Under a silky cloud all the night.
Ce fut une soirée inoubliable à Paris.

M. Sirani                              04.10.2015

In Response to Recent Brzezinski's Statement Amid: Russian Naval Base in Tartus is Far from Homeland & Vulnerable; Russia Targeted ISIS Positions With Cruise Missiles From Caspian Sea Today. hahahahahaha


The real fun in Syria has just begun. hahahahahaha

Note: You are losing the battle in Syria & Iraq due to the fact that you didn't have a clear strategy from the beginning and still you don't have any. What you did in the past 4/5 years was just some spontaneous moves & sudden actions (Which i cannot call them tactics), which the result of all of them were wasting time, energy and resources and nothing else.

M. Sirani          07.10.2015            

Secretary of State John Kerry Asks for Plans for No-Fly Zone in Syria. (Sweet Dreams).


1- A No-Fly Zone in Syria approved by the UN Security Council?
2- Or a No-Fly Zone approved by NATO or US-led coalition?
3- Or a type of false & fake No-Fly Zone in order to persuade and convince Turkey and other neighboring countries of Syria to keep sheltering the refugees?

The 1 and 2 options are just political jokes; but the third one is achievable.

M. Sirani                  07.10.2015 

Monday, October 5, 2015

Following Russia's Intervention, For Syria Might Be Too Late; But We Can Change the Balance of Power Against the Iranian Regime in the Middle East. International Politics Is Not Always A Dead End Alley.


In the past two years, i designed two plans that by performing them we might have decreased the power of Iran in Syria. The first one was following the latest chemical attack in Syria, which took place on 21.08.2015. Tow days after that event i designed the first peace plan for Syria that chemical disarmament of the Syrian regime was part of the plan. I sent the first draft of the plan for most of the Western countries including the UN and the country that i live at the moment. I didn't get any response.

Title: A plan that might save the world from another disaster.

The second plan: I designed it just couple of weeks ago and wrote a short note in this matter and uploaded in my weblog. By performing that plan, we might have change the course of Syrian civil war in a better direction. Again, i didn't get any response.

At the present time: Russia's direct military intervention has changed the course of Syrian conflict in the benefit of Russia and Iran without any doubt. However, we might not be able to seize the power in Syria, but there is other possibility that by performing another plan, we might be highly likely able to change the balance of power in the whole Middle East against the Iranian Regime. I'm ready to share my plan in this matter with a reliable authority or an international institute.

M. Sirani                          06.10.2015   

Some Huge Problems That Zbigniew Brzezinski Didn't Predict.

Briefly: The negative consequences of Fundamentalism Realism.

Zbigniew Brzezinski is one of those scholars, who couldn't predict the negative consequences of nuclear deal with Iran and cooperation with Iran amid war on ISIS.

In the last couple of months, in many occasions, Brzezinski stated that the U.S. should focus on its interests and in the war against ISIS, the U.S. should ally with Iran.

What did Zbigniew Brzezinski miss?

1- The nuclear deal would empower & embolden Iran in different terms; as such the expansionist behavior and activities of  Iran in the Middle East and Africa will increase.

2- When it comes to the Middle East and Africa, Iran and the USA have completely different & contradictory Geo-strategical and economic interests: a type of fundamentally Zero-Sum game.

3- Russia is one of the closest allies of Iran. Russia and the USA also have different Geo-Strategical and economic interests particularly, when it comes to the two countries of Ukraine and Syria.

Based on what Brzezinski proposed, thus, the USA should cooperate with Iran and Russia and join these two states in the war against ISIS now. In this respect, the U.S. should totally ignore the interests of itself and its close allies in the Middle East including its NATO partner Turkey!!!!Does such a move compatible with US Geo-Strategical and economic interests in the Middle East in short and long terms?

This is just a tiny contradiction within Fundamentalism Realism (Machiavellian & Morgentahuian approach) of Zbigniew Brzezinski, which drags the USA into nowhere land and more confusional foreign policy around the world including in the volatile region of the Middle East.

Note: The current US administration should avoid purple screaming with regards to Russia's recent intervention in Syria. The administration is harvesting a huge confusion in Syria now, what it has cultivated before.
  The strategy (if any exists) and tactics of the Western countries in the Middle East is similar to an old Iranian proverb, which says: You cannot seat on two chairs simultaneously for a long period of time; finally, you will fall and lose both chairs.  The problem of Brzezinski is the notion that he and those, who think like him, want to have a close and constructive relationship with Arab Leagues and Iran simultaneously and at the same time want to Iran agrees with removal of Bashar Assad & at the same support Arab League in the war in Yemen against Houthis and ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, endless other contradictions in the Middle East. It doesn't work anymore this type of contradictory policy. The world has changed and been changing. You should make up your mind in this battle and clearly say who is your close ally, who is your enemy. You cannot seat in both chairs and have a free ride, due to the fact that in addition to the USA, there are other super & regional powers around the world. Too much Machiavellian policy would end up to losing the orbits. (For your own sake look at Egypt as an example).  I can write a long essay in this matter; but honestly, i'm sicking tired of pro bono work and what you are reading in this simple weblog is just a type of hobby in my breaks. 

New Development:

In an article published today Brzezinski says: The US should retaliate and threatens Russia to stop,,,, Russian naval base in Syria is vulnerable and far from homeland,,,,, China stays in sideline,,,,,,. What does that mean? Direct military confrontation with Russia in Syria and at the same time building constructive relationship with Iran and at the same time trying to remove Assad from power, and the same time helping the Arab league in the war in Yemen against Houthis group backed by Iran, and endless further contradictions,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 

Maybe Mr. Brzezinski is not aware that 1- Russia's recent military deployment to Syria is far beyond just some airstrikes against ISIS, 2- Russia has declared that it is ready to deploy 150,000 ground force to Syria in a short period of time if is necessary, 3- Couple of days ago, Iran has openly and publicly deployed some ground forces to Syria (Thanks to shaky nuclear deal and lifting the sanctions), 4- Some Iranian military generals have yesterday arrived in Syria, 5- China's military advisers have couple of days ago arrived in Syria, 6- Haidar Al-Abadi has supported Russia's military intervention in Syria and has also said that he needs Russia's support in Iraq as well, 7- there is high probability that a huge ground force operation will be conducted in Syria and possibly in Iraq in the next step in the next coming days and weeks and many other issues, which all of them indicate a fact that Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Syria have decided to put en end to the conflicts in both Iraq and Syria as soon as possible. (You had 4/5 years time and did nothing, nothing, nothing at all except flirting with the Iranian Regime in the public and making love with Iran in the secret and behind the close doors).  The game in Syria and Iraq is nearly over in the favor of Iran and Russia, unless a miracle happens.    

Traditional schools in IR are Anti-Update. Some scholars are physically living in 2015, but when it comes to mentality, they are living in some decades ago.

M. Sirani                05.10.2015            

Sunday, October 4, 2015

The International Community Should Aware that Russia's intervention in Syria Means Intensifying Tension in Various Parts of the Middle East.

Needless to explore where, how and when.

M. Sirani                          04.10.2015  

Move Away From Syria (Possibly Iraq in the Next Step as Well); There Might Be Launched A Broad Ground Offensive Operation By Russian And Iranian Forces in the Near Future.

Briefly: (It seems Russia has announced that it is ready to deploy up to 150,000 ground forces into Syria in the near future). 

Everybody, who has a little bit knowledge in Peace & Conflict, War, International Relations, Political Science, should understand that a paramilitary group like ISIS and alike cannot be defeated by only airstrikes. Maybe the Western countries (US-led coalition) didn't pay attention to this basic understanding in the past two years war against ISIS, but the Russian and Iranian Strategists and tacticians have a proper knowledge in this matter and do not repeat the same mistake of the US-led coalition in this matter. In addition, both Russia and Iran have enough experience in warfare against paramilitary group like ISIS. In this respect, the two examples of Chechen War and the way that Iranian regime has been able to defeat the armed Iranian dissidents in the past 36 years could be mentioned.

What might happen in Syria and possibly in Iraq in the next step?

Based on brief details noted above and due to the fact that Iran has recently deployed some of its ground forces into Syria, there is high probability that in the next couple of weeks (following the broad Russia's airstrikes) we will observe a broad ground offensive military operation against ISIS, Al-Nusra Front, Syrian Rebels and any other group that fight against Assad's Regime. This broad offensive operation will be launched by the joint ground forces of Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, other Shiite groups and if necessary Russia's ground military forces. In case of such a scenario, this military operation will undoubtedly be continued against ISIS positions and alike in Iraq as well.
In short, Russia and Iran have decided to clean up the mess in both Syria and Iraq by all means.
Needless to explore the consequences of such a broad offensive operation not only within Syria and Iraq, but also in the neighboring countries, the Middle East and among US-led coalition.

Note: I might say, the war in Syria and Iraq has been nearly hijacked by Russia and Iran. Russia's military intervention will fundamentally change the course of war in Syria and possibly in Iraq as well in different terms. This event will enforce many unpredictable changes in the Middle East in various forms. As an example, Egypt has supported Russia's intervention in Syria. Thus, avoid purple screaming; you had 4/5 years time and did nothing, nothing at all. Just be prepared for further complications in the region.

M. Sirani                          04.10.2015      

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Exclusive: Arming the Syrian Rebels with Anti-aircraft Missile At This Stage Means Intensifying & Expanding the Battlefield Beyond Syria & Iraq.


To refresh the memory of some: Some of the anti-aircraft missiles that USA gave to Afghan rebels to use them against USSR army in Afghanistan, some years later were used by Taliban against US army.

M. Sirani        03.10.2015 

Friday, October 2, 2015

There Is High Probability That From Now on, (Or in The Near Future) The Israeli Fighter Jets Cannot Easily Conduct Military Operation Inside Syria in Order to Stop Hezbollah Amid Weapon Transporting From Syria To Lebanon.

Empowering military capability of Hezbollah in both Syria and Lebanon; this is just one of the primary consequences of Russia's military intervention in Syria. The fun part of conflict in Syria & Iraq has just started. Massive changes are underway in the Middle East. (is not just Syria).

Note: I'm pretty sure the Western countries are still in the shock of Russia's intervention and have absolutely no idea what is waiting for them in the short & long term in both Syria and Iraq.

M. Sirani                    02.10.2015

The Situation in Both Syria & Iraq is Going to Be Pretty Nasty For You (The West) But in the Favor of Iran & Russia, Based on Many Reasons. You (The West) Need a Totally New Strategy.

I just warn you. I'm not in mood & have no time to write a note in this matter.

Note: Haidar Al-Abadi is welcoming Russia's military intervention in Iraq.  

I remember just couple of months ago, both General Dempsey and Kenneth Pollack (Bookings Institute)  in their testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee stated that both trust Haidar Al-Abadi. Following those testimonies, i wrote two short notes in this matter and briefly explained that they are wrong. Here below are two short notes i wrote in that matter.

1- You are shocking me General Dempsey.

2- Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi Asked U.S. For Weapon. 

M. Sirani                02.10.2015

As Long As Iranian Regime's Lobbyists Are Iran Expert in Your Administration, Iran And Russia Will Beat & Humiliate & Surprise You In Every Battlefield in the Middle East.

I don't think any individual or institute or authority whether in the U.S. or the country that i live in it at the present or other EU countries dare to challenge me in this matter. You are harvesting what you have been cultivating.

M. Sirani                 02.10.2015

Thursday, October 1, 2015

What Is The Current Strategy of Russia in Syria? Do You Still Think Putin is Simply A Tactician?

Briefly: This article has been written during a 30 min break, without any edit & references. Don't blame me in this matter, due to the fact that is a short note, not an academic paper or an article for publishing.

Russia has begun its direct military intervention in Syria since Wednesday. This event has shocked many and at the same time has created a hot debate among many politicians, scholars as well as journalists around the world. Some simply claim that Assad's Regime was on the verge of collapse; as such Putin would try to save the Syrian Regime by this move. Some others claim that Putin is not a strategist; he is a tactician and try to divert the mind of public opinion from current tension in Ukraine toward Syria by this move. Some like Richard Haass, the current President of Council on Foreign Relations claims that in the war against ISIS, Obama should have worked with Russia and Iran some time ago. In addition to these different analyses, there are some, who are screaming that Putin's military intervention in Syria would be finally beneficial for ISIS, due to the fact that Russian fighter jets would also bomb the Free Syrian Army and this event would create a fertile ground for ISIS, Al-Nusra Front and other Islamic radical groups within Syria. Each of these views to some extent touches some true part of the story, but the combination of all of them does not explore the final goal of Russia in this adventurous operation.

In my opinion some views such as 1- Putin wants to save Assad's regime, or 2- Russian military jets would bomb the Syrian oppositions in addition to ISIS positions and alike are some Chrystal Clear realities and to some extent shallow analyses that do not need any further explanation. My aim in this short note is to identify Putin's final goal in this military intervention. By identifying this point, then, i would examine the reliability of Richard Haass's idea and those, who like him believe that Obama should have cooperated with Russia and Iran in war against ISIS long time ago. In doing so, i would try to put my feet in the shoes of Putin and look at the whole event not only within Syria but also in some other geographical areas that Russia has some type of conflict with the West (NATO) e.g. Ukraine.

From this point of view: What would /might Putin see?
Putin would / Might probably see that:
1- Influx of refugees towards the EU and the statements of various UN and western politicians that some large number of refugees (1 to 1/5 million) will enter the EU in the next coming months. Germany alone says that it would shelter nearly 800,000 refugees. ( Sudden influx of nearly 500,000 refugees after 4/5 years tension in Syria along with these statements might have created an alarming image for Putin that it seems something might happen in Syria somewhere in the near future that all of a sudden a country like Germany, for example, has announced that it would take this large number of refugees).

2- Recent Military involvement of Turkey in the conflict. Turkey is one of those countries that no matter how, would like to get rid of Assad's regime by all means. Regarding the Syrian conflict, the Turkish policy makers have, so far, proposed many strange & to some extent,  adventurous ideas such as creating no-fly zone or creating a safe haven in the northern part of Syria. In addition, there are many rumors that Turkish authority has been supporting ISIS, Al-Nusra front and some other Islamic Radical groups within both Syria and Iraq. Analyzing the credibility and reliability of these rumors and the notion that Turkey used this event for militarily crushing the PKK and other Kurdish opposition groups by this military intervention are beyond the scope of this short note. The important issue for Putin is the fact that after nearly 4/5 years, Turkey has militarily involved in the Syrian conflict (This event would probably have created an alarming image for Putin that the West might perform a direct military intervention against Assad's Regime somewhere in the near future).

3- Recent Military involvement of  UK and France against ISIS facilities within Syria ( This event would have increased the probability of a possible western military intervention against Assad's Regime in the mindset of Putin).          

4- The other overt, covert and clandestine military intervention of the US-led coalition including supporting and arming the Syrian rebels should be added to all mentioned above.

5- But this is not the whole story. Simply, because there is another ongoing conflict between Russia and the West, which Putin should carefully take care of that as well and that is Ukraine. Although, Ukraine and Syria are far away from each other, but from Geo-strategical and economic point of view, both of them are highly important for Russia and Putin. Any weakness in one of these two battlefields is a huge lost for Russia and to some extent would undermine the power of Russia in another battlefield. As such, Putin would do his best by all means to keep the western countries away from these two countries and he is ready to pay every price in this matter, as the experience of last two years has clearly shown. Some might wonder, what is the correlation between the tension in Ukraine and current sudden Russia's military involvement in the Syrian conflict? This is the story. At the present time, there is some type of truce between the Ukrainian authority and the rebels in eastern part of Ukraine. But NATO is not quiet. In addition, to military maneuver, arming, training, deploying forces to Baltic States and Ukraine, NATO has decided to deploy some Ballistic Missile Defense System to Poland and Romania. The idea that Poland become a host for such a defense system is not a new proposal and goes back to many years ago. The tricky point is here. In those years, the Western countries particularly the USA claimed that the deployment of this defense system in Poland is not because of Russia; it is mainly because of Iran and its secret nuclear activity & threat. Russia was strongly against such a move, event in those years. Now, the nuclear dispute with Iran has been solved, as Putin looks at this event. As such, the western countries would deploy the Ballistic Defense system to Poland and Romania in order to weaken Russian military power. As i follow the news, the western countries & NATO are trying to use some incentives and convince Putin in this matter. This idea has so far, been rejected by Russia and some Russian politicians have stated that in case of such a move by the West, Russia would deploy some of its Iskandar Ballistic Missiles close to the borders with the EU. (Deployment of such a defense system to Poland and Romania is a serious threat and would extremely weaken the Russian military power in the region; this is something that Putin understands).

6- Another news is that the USA has recently decided to deploy some nuclear bombs to Germany.

In short, Russia enjoyed the Syrian conflict in different terms in the last 4/5 years by using Buck Passing and Offshore Balancing strategies . But the combination of all issues mentioned above created an atmosphere of fear in Moscow and Tehran that the West along with some countries in the region might conduct a broad military intervention, something like Yemen, against Assad's Regime somewhere in the near future. Such a assumption 1- forced Russia to militarily be involved in the Syrian conflict; 2- forced Iran to openly and publicly deploy its ground forces into Syria; 3- forced China to deploy its military advisers into Syria.

What is the plan?
The group of Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq and China (From behind) have decided to put an end to the civil war in both Syria and Iraq. In this respect, every individual and group (e.g. ISIS, Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda, the Syrian rebel Army, etc) that fight against the political systems in Iraq and Syria would be identified as enemy and would be crushed by military forces of Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and different other Shiite groups from the air or on the ground. In this battle, whether we like it or not, Russia and Iran have the upper hands based on many reasons including the recent nuclear deal & lifting the sanctions on Iran, which are equivalent to releasing a wounded tiger from the cage. In other words, from now on, the West should be prepared to deal with offensive activities of Iran across the Middle East and Africa. When it comes to the contemporary international laws and conventions also, whether we agree with it or not, the military presence of Russian and Iranian air & ground forces in both Syria and Iraq is legally legitimate, due to the fact that both political systems in these two countries have asked Iran and Russia to help them in war against ISIS and other terrorist groups. By direct military intervention in Syria, however, Putin would try to 1- defend and support Assad's Regime, 2- projecting the power and showing the teeth to the West with regards to both Syria and Ukraine and 3- to get some advantages from the West with regards to current tension in Ukraine as well. The current military intervention of Russia and Iran in Syria might have an extra benefit for Iran in addition to all explored above and that is facilitating extra opportunity for Hezbollah. From now on or somewhere in the future, the Israeli fighter jets might not easily be able to conduct airstrikes within Syrian territory in order to interrupt the transportation of weapons from Syria into Lebanon by Hezbollah. In other words, the current development would undoubtedly empower Hezbollah in various terms, not only within Syria but also Lebanon and to some extent in the region.  

What is the options of US-led coalition at the present time?
The US-led coalition, in my opinion has three options as follows:

1- Total retreat and withdrawal from both Syrian and Iraqi conflict, due to the fact that the final outcome of this conflict would be highly likely beneficial for Iran and Russia based on what briefly explored above.

2- Continuing with military operation in different terms in Syria and Iraq and simply offering assistance in various terms to Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq in order to defeat ISIS and other Islamic radical groups in the favor of Russia and Iran at the final stage.

3- Continuing military operation in Syria and Iraq parallel to Iran and Russia but without any coordination in order to hijack the power in both Syria and Iraq. Based on many reasons, this option would lead to a humiliating defeat, intensifying tension not only within Syria & Iraq but also in some other areas, huge collateral damages, further destruction of both countries of Syria & Iraq, high probability that the tension in Syria & Iraq would spillover to another neighboring countries and influx of more refugees towards the neighboring countries & consequently the EU.

What is the final goal of Putin following the end of civil war in Syria?
If Russia would not be able to stop NATO with regards to deployment of nuclear bombs to Germany or Ballistic Missile Defense System to Poland and Romania or with regards to current tension in Ukraine, Russia might probably deploy some of its Iskandar Ballistic Missile or more powerful weapons to Syria in order to undermine the security of the EU in retaliation.

Based on what explored above, whether some readers like it or not, agree with it or not, i should admit, that from IR & Peace And Conflict points of view,  Putin is not a tactician; Putin (and his advisers) is one of the best chess players in our contemporary international politics. Some might not like it, but after Crimea , this is the second time that Putin checkmates the West & NATO. (Never underestimate your enemy= 101- IR & Peace and Conflict Course).

Considering all briefly explored above, i pose a simple question for Mr. Richard Haass and those who think like him: Do you still believe that USA and Other western countries should cooperate with Iran and Russia in this battlefields or not?

Note: You had 4/5 years time along with some golden opportunities including the fact that Iran was under severe economic sanctions and political isolation, and did nothing. The game in Syria is over now in the benefit of Iran & Russia. Like always you are just busy with some reactionary moves and as a result couple steps behind Putin and the Islamic Regime. When it comes to Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, Yemen and many other places, you don't have any reasonable & logical strategy and moreover, you are relying on Iranian Regim's lobbyists, as Iran expert, in your administration. As such, you will be beaten and surprised by Iran and Russia in various occasions.  

M. Sirani                       01.10.2015 

Exclusive: Be Prepared for A Huge Offensive Operation in Syria & Iraq; Iranian Ground Forces Have Arived in Syria.

Briefly: Russia, Iran and China (From the behind) have decided to clean up the mess in Syria & Iraq. In this respect, every individual or group, which would not be agree with political systems in Syria & Iraq would be identified as enemy.

The Western & Arab countries have three choices at this stage: 1- Total retreat and withdrawal from both Syria & Iraq, 2- Staying in Syria & Iraq and offering assistance to Iran & Russia in their favor, 3- Staying in Syria & Iraq in order to hijack the power from Iran & Russia. Based on many reasons, this option would lead to a humiliating defeat, intensifying tension not only within Syria & Iraq but also in some other areas, huge collateral damages, further destruction of both countries of Syria & Iraq, high probability that the tension in Syria & Iraq would spillover to another neighboring countries and influx of more refugees towards the neighboring countries & consequently the EU.

M. Sirani                01.10.2015  


The West Needs A Totally New Strategy With Regards To Syria & Iraq; Of Course, If It Doesn't Want to Waste Its Resources For The Benefit of Its Adversaries.


It's funny & shocking: You had 4/5 years time. What did you do? (Be honest with yourself and find a reasonable and logical answer to that question).

Note: 101-Peace & Conflict Course might help.

M. Sirani                  01.10.2015