From the Essay entitled "Will the US Attack Iran?"
4- The Mindset
of Policy Makers in Iran:
The ideological foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based
on the Shia branch of Islam. The Shia Muslims in Iran (Mostly Twelver) are the
followers of the twelve descendants of the Prophet Mohammad. According to Shia
mythology, some three centuries after the death of the Prophet Mohammad, the
twelfth Imam (Mahdi) went into an indefinite period of occultation. The
fundamental belief of Shia branch is as follows: when the world is full of
injustice, inequality, and violence, Imam Mahdi will return and fill the world with
justice and prosperity for all people, through the establishment of an Islamic
state on Earth. Based on this theological doctrine, the Islamic Regime has been
trying to expand its influence and hegemony beyond its own geographical
borders, particularly in the Middle East. This religious expansion is a
celestial duty for the Islamic Regime and it pursues a sacred goal: the establishment
of a Shia Empire in the region. Two of the most important functions of this
Shia Empire would be as follows: 1- It would facilitate the advent of Imam
Mahdi and 2- It would provide the necessary assistance and support to Imam
Mahdi, when he will return from occultation. Iran precisely knows that the achievement
of such a divine and important goal without the nuclear weapon is almost
impossible. This is the main reason behind Iran’s nuclear activities. However, different
evidences indicate the fact that recently despite enormous diplomatic pressure
and severe economic sanctions, Iran not only has not reduced its uranium
enrichment programmes, instead it has accelerated its nuclear activities, for
example at Fordo underground facility near Qom city (Afshari, 2011; Aei, 2012;
Sirani, 2012; Eteghad, 2012).
This issue raises a serious question. Why Iran does not halt or
reduce its nuclear activity, despite all these diplomatic and economic
sanctions? The answer to this question has direct connection with current civil
war in Syria and Shia group uprising in Yemen. As we know, from early days of
the Islamic Revolution, the policy makers in Iran have been trying to hold a durable,
solid, and close tie with Syrian regime. This close relationship between Tehran
and Damascus can be understood partly within the concept of a stronger
strategic partnership against Israel. However, this is not the whole story;
since, there is some other important reason beyond this inseparable strategic partnership.
According to different hadiths in Shia branch of Islam, the righteous movement
in Yemen and bloody civil war in Syria are amongst five events, which would occur
before or during the emergence of Imam Mahdi (Eteghad, 2012; Sirani, 2012).
According to one of these hadiths:
“One example of the
direct help that Imam Mahdi will receive from Allah s.w.t. will be his defeat
of Sufyaani. Sufyaani will be a man from the family of Abu Sufyan, and he will
emerge from Damascus and conduct a ruthless campaign of bloodshed and mass
killing, during which thousands of innocent people will be slaughtered. He will
be supported by the people of the tribe of Kalb.
Sufyaani will dispatch his army to Mecca in order to destroy Imam Mahdi, however Imam Mahdi’s army will easily defeat Sufyaani’s army. Sufyaani will then lead a separate contingent of his remaining army to face Imam Mahdi himself. This army will subsequently be destroyed by an enormous earthquake at Baidaa on the road to Mecca” (Al-Shia, 2012).
Sufyaani will dispatch his army to Mecca in order to destroy Imam Mahdi, however Imam Mahdi’s army will easily defeat Sufyaani’s army. Sufyaani will then lead a separate contingent of his remaining army to face Imam Mahdi himself. This army will subsequently be destroyed by an enormous earthquake at Baidaa on the road to Mecca” (Al-Shia, 2012).
It
seems unrealistic for us, but this is the way that the policy makers in Iran perceive
the Shia uprising in Yemen and the current civil war in Syria. In fact, the
policy makers in Iran have a strong belief that currently, the Sufyaani army
(i.e. the Syrian Liberation Army and those states who support them) wants to
defeat Syrian regime and after that, this army will move to Mecca in order to
kill Imam Mahdi. Therefore, defending Assad’s regime would become a divine duty
for policy makers in Iran, which has to be fulfilled at the expense of
everything, in order to save Imam Mahdi. In fact, the combination of the
current civil war in Syria, Yemen and the Arab spring has portrayed an image in
the mind of religious policy makers in Iran that these rallies across the
Middle East arise from the chaos of the final war. In other words, according to
Shia mythology, we are close to the advent of Imam Mahdi or the Day of
Judgment. Thus, based on Shia eschatological philosophy, Iran should defeat its
enemies and establish a new world order; a new world without war, injustice and
inequality (Williams, 2013; Al-Shia, 2012; Eteghad, 2012).
This
is an important matter that most of the scholars and politicians do not pay
attention to it.
Based
on all explained above, we can deduce that Iran’s eschatological war, across
the Middle East including in Syria has begun. In the mind of policy makers in
Iran, this is the historical-religious moment that Iran should acquire the nuclear
bomb in order to accomplish its divine mission. Therefore, the chance that Iran
would stop or reduce its nuclear activities is very low. As a result, we can
expect that eventually, these diplomatic negotiations will also reach a dead end
somewhere in the future. In this case, there is high probability that the US
will attack Iran. The next section shall discuss this issue (Williams, 2013;
Sirani, 2012).
M. Sirani 2012
