Briefly:
Different evidences indicate a fact that the plan of a war or some type of military confrontation against Iran is on the table. These evidences are briefly described as follows:
A- Imposing harsh sanctions on Iran including its oil & gas export, which are the main sources of revenue for the Iranian Regime; in order to weaken Iran's economy.
B- Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria: This move (in case of full implementation) is highly likely the order of Russia. Putin does not want the devastated Syria specially at this stage that ISIS has been almost defeated, would become a new battlefield between Iran, its proxies and U.S. troops inside Syria.
C- Forcing Houthis in Yemen to withdraw from Hodeidah Port under the agreement of Stockholm Talks. Why is this issue important? In case of a military confrontation with Iran, the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and part of Arabian Sea would be highly likely closed for any type of maritime transport. Such a hypothetical scenario would be devastating in terms of oil & gas export for many states not only at regional level within the Middle East but also at global level. In such a scenario, the only safe & secure passages would be the Gulf of Aden, the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb and the Red Sea. If Hodeidah Port would remain in the hands of Houthis, In case of a military confrontation, Iran can paralyze the international community from both sides in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. That's why, some are trying to remove the Houthis from this important Geo-Strategic Port ASAP.
D- As the Time of Israel claims, Mossad, MI6 and CIA have helped an Iranian Nuclear Scientist to escape from Iran, smuggled him to the UK and thereafter transferred him to the USA (False or true, this event is similar to those Iraqi chemical experts, who exposed the existence of WMD in Iraq before 2003 invasion to Iraq. As it appears, in the next coming days & weeks, we might expect some breaking news & revelation about the illegal & secret nuclear activity of Iran by some news agencies).
E- The upcoming Middle East Conference in Poland: This event is a type of mobilization of the international community specially the Europeans, who are the important economic partners of Iran after Russia & China against Iran. This move is similar to the move of G.H. W. Bush (the father), who mobilized the international community in case of Liberation of Kuwait from Iraqi army in 1991(The Gulf War).
F- Morocco has recently suspended its military cooperation with Saudi-led coalition in case of the conflict in Yemen. This issue might be partly due to the fact that Morocco does not want to be involved in a broader & deeper conflict with Iran at this stage based on some reasons; although, Morocco has its own problem with Iran in case of the Western Sahara conflict and the notion that Iran is one of the main supporters of the Polisario Front rebels.
G- Some actors behind this plan, for example, Trump, Netanyahu & Saudi Crown Prince are suffering from some types of problems at domestic, foreign affairs or both issues based on many reasons. They need some distraction to preserve their position. A war with Iran & the propaganda around this issue could be a tool in this regard.
The combination of all these issues mentioned above, indicate a fact that the plan of a war against Iran is highly likely on the table. These issues mentioned above are some type of preparations for such a move. Should this happen and a military confrontation with Iran begins, the overall negative consequences of such a move would be devastating for many people across the Middle East, parts of Africa and possibly beyond these areas. It should be added: As an Iranian in exile, i'm totally against the Iranian Regime. But i believe such a move not only does not solve anything at all with regards to the Iranian Regime and its expansionist activities; on the contrary, it would add more chaos, instability, tension & disaster in different terms for many people across the Middle East, some parts of Africa and possibly beyond these areas. And that is a horrific scenario in different terms that the entire international community cannot handle it.
M. Sirani 10.02.2019
