Sunday, May 5, 2013

Israeili Attacks Inside Syria Would Provoke Iran.

Israeili attacks inside Syria would provoke Iran. Given the fact that Syria is Iran`s red line, what would be the possible reaction of the Islamic Regime at this stage?

If Iran had the nuclear weapon, it would have responded Israeili attack directly, without any fear with regards to the retaliation of the US and Israeil. Based on passive reaction of Iran, we can claim that Iran has not been able to obtain the nuclear bomb yet. However, the passive reaction of Tehran could be understood as a trick; it means Iran has bigger and more important plan, which it does not want to ruin and destroy it at this stage.
Thus, the probability of Iran`s direct attack against Israel would be very low, at this stage. There might be some possibility that Iran`s subset i.e. Hezbullah would fire some rockets on Israeil. Regarding this issue, i can say that the probability of this event is also very low, due to the fact that Germany, Bulgaria and some other European countries are discussing a plan to whether designate Hezbullah as a terrorist organization or not. This issue like a alarm might prevent Hezbullah to fire too many rockects on Israeil, the same as it has done it before. Or, it might not fire any at all.

M. Sirani      05.05.2013