Major Changes Under Way in The Middle East.

In the next couple of months, we might experience major changes in the Middle East.  These changes would consequently impact most part of the world in different aspects.

Releasing Iran's Frozen Assets Means: Betraying the Iranian, Syrian and Millions of People Acroos The Middle East.

It seems the US and EU authorities are looking for an opportunity to release billions of dollars frozen Iran assets. Should this happen, the Iranian Regime would get access to nearly $50 billion dollars. The smart policy makers in both US and EU should pay attention to some issues as follows.

Firstly: this amount of money in reality belongs to those majority of Iranian people, who live under poverty line; it belongs to those Iranian people, who are suffering the most, and not the Islamic Regime.

Secondly: Releasing these frozen assets would empower Iran to financially support and promote its terrorist activities across the Middle East. In other words, the US and EU are paying the salaries of the Quds forces, Hezbollah members and other Iran's proxies by releasing these assets.
To put its simply, the US and EU indirectly would pay money to the Quds and Hezbollah members to kill the people in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and other places in the Middle East.

Thirdly: Although the United Nations have officially proposed the Geneva Conference, but we all know that the US and EU are the main actors behind this proposal. This is a serious question that the policy makers in the US and EU should answer it, if they would release Iran's frozen assets.

You are supporting the Syrian opposition and at the same time you are financially assisting the Iranian Regime by releasing these frozen assets. How do you justify your act? Double standard, triple standard or multiple standard?

This is an outrageous scandal. Releasing these frozen assets is equivalent to betraying the poor Iranian people, the Syrian people and millions of other people across the Middle East, who are suffering from different Iran's terrorist activities. The international community, particularly the Arab League should not let this happen. In this respect, the Arab League and the real Syrian opposition should boycott the Geneva II conference. Maybe in this way, the international community would be able to teach a lesson to the US and EU with regards to their unfair multiple standard behaviors. The US and EU policy makers should learn that they cannot trade the lives and rights of millions of people in Iran, Syria and other places in the Middle East with their nuclear negotiation with the clero-totalitarian Regime of Iran. Enough is enough.


To the policy makers in the US and EU:
During the past 34 years, you have done enormous mistake with regard to analyzing the Islamic Regime, its structure, behaviors, and its intentions in domestic as well as in the international arena. You did enormous mistake in this matter, partly, because most of your Iranian analysts were and are some members of the different factions within the Islamic Regime. You are those, who have been selling nuclear devices to Iran; you are those, who have been educating the Iranian Regime's affiliates in your best ranking universities and institutes; you are those, who have been promoting the former Iranian regime's affiliates with different official prices and titles. As such, you have let the Iranian Regime to easily and steady reach this critical point with regard to its nuclear activity. In this respect: why should we, the Iranian people, and millions of other people in the Middle East pay the price of your mistake? Why should we pay the price of your wrong analyses? Why should we pay the price of your opportunist behavior? How should your close allies in the Middle East trust your words and promises, when they see that your are releasing Iran's frozen assets and at the same time claim that you are supporting the Syrian people against Bashar Asad? How should Israel and the Arab League trust your words?  



M. Sirani                              23.10.2013

Geneva 2 Conference: Do not Trade the Basic Rights of the Poor Syrian People With Iran's Nuclear Negotiation.

I don't have the time to elaborate this issue; but it think the simple title noted above is crystal clear enough. Some might think by ignoring the Syrian conflict or decreasing the support of the Syrian opposition, they might be able to get an advantage in Iran's nuclear negotiation. In response to this type of assumption, I can say: you are completely in the wrong direction.


M. Sirani                    22.10.2013

The Chance that Iran Signs The Additional Protocol, Is Very Low.

So far, Iran has managed to save Asad's regime by diverting the mind of the international community from a military strike on Syria into its powerful bargaining chip: the nuclear negotiation. From now on, Iran would try to preserve its nuclear activity without any additional economic sanction. In this respect, the nuclear negotiation facilitates the best opportunity for Iran. By using this negotiation, so far, Iran has been able to save itself from new economic sanction. This is exactly, what Iran needs at the present time; buying the necessary time for its secret nuclear activity. Iran would probably continue with this game in the close future. The chance that Iran would sign the additional protocol during this period of time (nearly one year) is very low or I might say is almost impossible. Because during the past years, Iran has learned to bypass the sanctions; Iran has learned to adapt itself with current sanctions.


M. Sirani                                               19.10.2013       

Does Anyone Care About The ongoing Sectarian Violence in Iraq?

Does the UN have any idea what is going on in Iraq every day? Or maybe, the file of Iraq has been lost in the UN's archive!
Or maybe some analysts think that with this type of violence they can put extra pressure on Iran. In this respect, I have to say that with this type of action, you cannot defeat Iran or weaken its influence in Iraq. On the contrary, this sectarian violence would facilitate better opportunities for Iran from different angles. Briefly, it would legitimize Iran's presence in Iraq in the sense that Iran claims that its Quds force defends the Shiite people in Iraq against their enemies. This sectarian violence would also help Iran to recruit and mobilize large number of Shiite followers and use this army in both Iraq and Syria. At the present, Syria is the most important Achilles' Heel of Iran. Without a free Syria, you cannot dismantle Hezbollah; you cannot bring stability in Iraq.


M. Sirani                        17.10.2013                 

A Consideration With Regard To Current Nuclear Negotiation in Geneva (15 & 16.10.2013).

Any agreement with Iran should include an important and fundamental point. This important point is that the IAEA nuclear inspectors should have the right and authority to visit all Iran's nuclear plants (particularly Fordo, Arak, Natanz plants) in an unannounced and unexpected manner at any time, when they require.

I have no idea about other issues discussed in today's meeting in Geneva. But as far as I understood, this is one of the important missing links in this meeting. However, i hope those experts, who are attending this negotiation, in addition to Zarif's colorful PowerPoint, would pay attention to the important role of unannounced and unexpected visit of Iran's nuclear plants.

A message to the International Community:
Up until this moment, Iran has been able to divert the mind of the whole world from the chemical attack in Syria into its nuclear activity. We should not forget that almost 3 weeks ago, the Two countries of the US and France were decided to launch a military strike on Syria. But at the present, the Syrian conflict and the punishment of Asad's regime have been completely lost in the tactical dust of Iran's nuclear negotiation.

I had anticipated this type of Iran's tactic in my previous short notes. In sum, my suggestion is that don't let the Iranian Regime drag you to a beautiful, but at the same time dead-end alley. Iran wants to buy the time; save Asad's regime; and continue to its nuclear activity in some secret nuclear facility. These are the main goals and tactics of Iran at the present time. 

The economic sanctions don't bother Iran as much as you think; as much as the Iranian Regime pretends. Briefly, according to some officials in Tehran, the Iranian regime collected just 5 million dollars each month from the charity boxes around the country( There are almost 7 million charity boxes in the country). There are more than 10,000 Emamzadeh (Religious tomb of profit Mohammad's descendants) in Iran, which the Iranian people voluntarily donate money to them. All these moneys go in the pocket of the supreme leader. In addition, there are other religious foundations, which provide large amount of income for the Islamic Regime. Moreover, Iran bypasses the sanctions illegally through some of its neighboring countries.  Furthermore, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset organizations are involved in different illegal and unlawful business activities such as money laundering, arms-drug trafficking, etc, at the international level. In short, don't think that your economic sanctions have forced Iran to the table of nuclear negotiation. Iran has started with nuclear negotiation game to save Asad's Regime. 


M. Sirani                   15.10.2013

Legalizing Pedophilia, Another Tragic Event in Iran.

Today, the Guardian Council of the Constitution, Iran's highest ranking legislative entity,  passed a bill, which legally allows parents to marry with their adopted children. This law, as an example, allows a man to marry his adopted daughter, while she is almost 13 years old. This barbaric law is violating the basic rights of the children; this law is legalizing the pedophilia within the Iranian society; it is deteriorating the basic norms, values and moral issues in Iran; it is destructing the structure of families and worsening the conditions of millions of women and children in the entire country from different aspects.

The international community should not ignore this barbaric move of the Iranian Regime. In this respect, all authorities, the United Nations, Amnesty International and other human rights organizations around the world should strongly condemn this barbaric bill and with all their capacities and powers force the Iranian Regime to remove this inhuman, unjust and horrific law from its constitution.

This is an outrageous, disgrace, shameful and tragic event not only for the Iranian people but also for all human beings around the world. We should be united and force the Iranian Regime to remove this scandalous law from its constitution.


M. Sirani                                   11.10.2013

The Nobel Peace Prize of 2013.

 Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) was awarded for the Nobel Peace Prize of this year. As an individual, I welcome the nice and relevant choice of the Nobel committee in this respect. This is a great step towards a more peaceful and stable world; a world without weapons of mass destruction.

                                                                                         11.10.2013

Machiavelli's Statement About The Current Syrian Civil War.

Machiavelli's Statement About The Current Syrian Civil War.

I don't want to apply this statement to all the Syrian opposition. Simply, because I know there are many honest Syrian freedom fighters, who do their best to establish freedom, democracy and secularism in Syria for all the Syrian people. But part of the reason (I emphasize part of the reason) that after two and half years struggle, we have not been able to remove Bashar Assad from the power lies in this part of Machiavelli's statement. There are many other reasons, which are out of the scope of this short note; therefore, I don't explore them. However, according to Machiavelli:

"Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous, and any ruler who relies on them to defend his state will be insecure and in peril; because they are disunited, ambitious, undisciplined, and disloyal; courageous when they are with their friends, cowardly in the presence of the enemy; they have no fear of God and don’t keep their promises. [Although he doesn’t say so, Machiavelli is now talking only about mercenaries. Auxiliary armies will be his topic in the next chapter.] With them as his army, the only way a prince can hold off his own ruin is by holding off any military attack; in peace one is robbed by •them, and in war by •the enemy. Why? Because they have no affection for you, and no reason to go to battle except the small wages you pay them, and those aren’t enough to make them willing to die for you! They’re ready enough to be your soldiers while you aren’t at war with anyone, but when war comes they either desert or run away on the battlefield"

                                                                                                           (Machiavelli, 2010, P. 26)

M. Sirani                       09.10.2013                

Reference:

Bennet, J. (2010). The Prince. URL<: http://www.earlymoderntexts.com/pdfbits/machpr2.pdf>.

Accessed on: 09.10.2013.

An Important Consideration With Regard to the Current UN's Chemical Weapons Disarmament in Syria.

I begin my short note with a simple question as follows. Can we trust Asad's regime, Iran and Hezbollah?
If the answer to this question is "yes"; then, we should trust Bashar Asad, when he, for example, claims that his security forces are killing the terrorists; then we should remove all the economic and political sanctions on Iran, because as Iran itself claims its nuclear activity has peaceful nature; then, we should also remove Hezbollah from the list of international terrorist organizations.

I'm pretty sure that most of us don't trust Bashar Asad, or Iran, or Hezbollah. This is a logical statement, based on many reasons, which is out of the scope of this short note. In this respect, we face some other questions with regard to the recent UN's chemical weapons disarmament in Syria. These questions are as follows.

1- Has the Syrian authority handed over the list of its entire chemical weapons and chemical storages to the UN?

2- Does Asad's regime hand over some of its chemical weapons to Hezbollah?

3- Does Asad's regime move some of its chemical weapons to Iran through Iraq or by Iranian airplanes, which are flying between Tehran and Damascus on daily bases?

Undoubtedly, all these possibilities are worrisome.These are the important issues that the UN chemical inspectors cannot control or prevent.  However, in order to avoid or at least decrease these threatening possibilities, the United Nation, first, should establish a ceasefire between Asad's regime and the Syrian opposition. Thereafter, the UN should deploy its peacekeeping force to Syria. This move would be beneficial from different aspects. The UN peacekeepers, for example, would
- Establish and maintain the ceasefire in the country, up until the final decision of the Geneva conference/s.
- Control and observe the process of chemical weapons disarmament or destruction.
- Control that none of these chemical weapons would transfer to Lebanon or Iran, through air or ground borders.
- Confront the terrorist groups and dismantle some radical groups such as the Al-Nusra Front or Jabhat al-Nusra inside Syria.
- Protect the displaced people and the Syrian refugees.

Should this happen, the humanitarian organizations would also be able to provide better help and assistance to those Syrian people in need.

In sum, at this stage, deployment of the UN peacekeeping force to Syria would be beneficial, not only for the Syrian people but also for the neighboring countries from different angles. This move, in addition, would be beneficial in the short and long term for the Western countries, which are spending billions of dollars annually on some issue such as the war on terror.


M. Sirani                            06.10.2013

Those countries that supplies their energy (Oil-Gas) from Iran, should be aware of the future consequences of their trade.

Against all odds, I mean:

Don't jeopardize the entire security of your economy, just because of a smiley face or beautiful words of Rouhani or a telephone conference between Rouhani and President Obama. Bear in mind that the Islamic Regime is going to enter in a new phase in some respects, somewhere in the future.

M. Sirani                       05.10.2013

The U.S. Government Shut Down and The Affordable Care Act.

This is a fact that this healthcare program would cover the basic needs & rights of nearly 40 million poor Americans. However, as it appears, the Republicans have shut down the U.S. government, because of this affordable healthcare bill. This event, as a result, has forced 800,000 public employees to stay at home without any incomes. In  other words, by this sabotage, the republicans are jeopardizing the lives of 40 million poor Americans, who were not able to cover their medical cares and nearly 800,000 employees, who have forced to stay at home without any income and their families.

This is the time that American people should stand for their basic rights and needs. In doing so, those 40 million poor Americans without any health insurance and those 800,000 public employees, which have been forced to stay at home without any income, along with other Americans should arrange a huge and peaceful march against this inhuman and unjust act of the republicans in the entire country. Through this march, American people would be able to put an extra pressure on those republicans, who try to slow down the process of the development in the US by this type of unjust sabotage. Through this move, American people would teach an unforgettable lesson to those republicans, who do not have any respect for the basic rights and needs of their fellow citizens. This is one of those historical moments that once again, Martin Luther King's great March should be repeated by Americans for Americans.    


M. Sirani                    04.10.2013

Uncertainty in the Foreign Policy and Current Government Shut Down.

Uncertainty in the choice of appropriate foreign policy at the right time along with the current U.S. government shut down will make Asad's regime and Iran more demanding. The future conferences with regard to the Syrian civil war and Iran's nuclear negotiation will prove my short note; if the situation would continue in the future the same as it is right now. As I warned in my previous short notes, the international community is on the slope of losing the battle in Syria to the Iranian regime. However, the two issues mentioned above would accelerate the speed of this downfall enormously.

M. Sirani                  1.10.2013