Thursday, June 29, 2017

Federalism For Syria Means An Endless Conflict (The Era that Two Person Like Sykes & Picot Sit Somewhere and With the Help of A Ruler Divide the Middle East is OVER; WAKE UP).

Briefly:

As it appears the USA and some of U.S. allies are trying to establish some type of Federal political system in Syria. Creating a safe zone in Northern part of Syria for Kurds and recent training & supporting the Syrian rebels in the South (Syrian border with Jordan) could be understood in this respect. By these moves, as it appears the USA would try to establish a type of Federal political system consisted of three parts in Syria.

1- The Northern part under the command of the Syrian Kurds,

2- The Middle part under the command of Bashar Assad, which includes Shitte, Alawites and Assad's supporters.

3- The Southern part under the command of Sunni people & mainly for Sunni people.

By implementing this plan, the USA would mainly try to:

A- Weaken the central government of Bashar Assad.

B- Reduce the influence of Russia & Iran in Syria.

C- Accordingly weakening the position of Hezbollah in Syria and to some extent in Lebanon, and

D- Create a so-called safe zone for Israel in the Southern part of Syria.  

If my assumption in this regard is correct, Trump administration is trying to pursue H. Kissinger's proposal as a solution for Syrian civil war. Those, who are interested in this concept, can read Kissinger's proposal in his article entitled "A path Out of the Middle East Collapse" published on 16.10.2015. However,
based on many reasons and theoretical concepts such as Hobbsian "Formation of State-Government" and Habermasian "Communicative Rationality" i can clearly say that the idea of Federalism for Syria is just a joke; does not function in Syria; it cannot create peace and stability in Syria. On the contrary, this plan, in case of fully implementation, not only would create an endless civil war within Syria but also intensify the tension between Iraqi central government & Iraqi Kurdistan and accordingly would force Turkey to perform some military action against Kurds in both Iraq & Syria. This plan, in addition, would jeopardize the safety & security of Israel in the long term.

However, if some actors are interested to weaken the central government (Assad's regime) and accordingly create an endless civil war & conflict within Syria in order to achieve & preserve some economic & Geo-Strategic interests in the long term, the idea of Federalism in Syria is a perfect proposal. Current disastrous political system in Iraq and continuous tension between Iraqi central government and semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan confirms my explanation in this regard to some extent.

 M. Sirani                               29.06.2017