Briefly:
Regarding the upcoming USA & North Korea negotiations, three scenarios are possible. These scenarios are as follows:
A- The Scenario 1: North Korea would hand over its nuclear arsenals to China or a legitimate international body such as IAEA and stop further development of any nuclear weapon & ballistic missile. In return, China would provide a nuclear-defensive umbrella for North Korea in case of any foreign aggressor. The USA, in return, would guarantee the security of North Korea and would lift the sanctions, etc through a comprehensive peace treaty.
B- The Scenario 2: Trump is a soap opera actor addicted to unlimited exaggeration. There are numerous examples that Trump has extremely exaggerated in order to project himself as a smarter, richer, more powerful, stronger, etc individuals. Part of the reason that Trump does not reveal his tax return lies in this matter. His tax return would reveal that Trump is not so rich as he claims. Based on such a mentality, Trump might have come to the conclusion that North Korea is a nuclear armed state and he has some limited options. Either a nuclear war with North Korea or accept a nuclear armed North Korea with some superficial changes. In this scenario, North Korea would not further develop any nuclear weapon; it keeps some of its nuclear weapon (Secret from the eyes of the international community); It would superficially and apparently dismantle some parts of its nuclear weapons and nuclear plants, test sites. By these events, North Korea "has apparently given up its nuclear arsenals". The USA, in return, would lift some sanctions and might offer North Korea some type of incentive support. In this scenario, the conflict in Korean Peninsula has been solved peacefully. North Korea would be satisfied. Trump would trumpet that he has solved the conflict in Korean Pennisula and might get a political Oscar (Nobel Peace Prize) for his show. The USA would preserve its reputation at global level, that "it has not allowed that North Korea would remain a nuclear armed state" etc.
C- The Scenario 3: North Korea is buying time for further development of its nuclear arsenals & ballistic missile program or something else.
M. Sirani 12.05.2018
The New Trick of Trump to Totally Paralyze the JCPOA. Would the EU Fall in Trump's Trap in This Regard?
Briefly:
If you follow the news, you would probably observe that Trump, his administration and media supporters would enormously exaggerate about various events related to nuclear issue in North Korea. As an example, North Korea has recently decided to dismantle a nuclear test site in the next coming days. Trump praised this move on Twitter. Various media supporters of Trump praised this move and claimed that Trump should get credit, etc.
What is the main story?
North Korea has decided to dismantle the nuclear test site. This move has, in reality, nothing to do with Trump and his approach toward North Korea. This nuclear test site is unusable due to excessive test and is on the verge of total collapse according to many reports including from some Chinese geologists. In addition, we should bear in mind that North Korea developed nuclear weapon to defend itself against a foreign threat like the USA. The country has developed its security weapon. It does not need a nuclear test site. Because, North Korea does not want to compete with the super powers in terms of nuclear weapon; the way that Russia and the USA for example do to be able to compete with each other. But Trump and his supporters would exaggerate about this issue and some other moves in North Korea just for one reason. They want to convince the EU to withdraw from the JCPOA. By these types of exaggerations, Trump team wants to tell the EU that look at North Korea. Due to tough stand and rhetoric of Trump, North Korea has started to dismantle its nuclear facilities. If you (the EU) would withdraw from the JCPOA, we can force Iran to sign a better nuclear deal. This is the main trick of Trump for the EU. Would the EU fall in Trump's trap in this regard or not?
M. Sirani 13.05.2018
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