Malthusianism
And
The
Overpopulation Dilemma
Name: M.Sirani
Institute: Noragric
Course: EDS290, Development Classics
Semester: 2nd
Date of Submission: 5-5-2009
Total Words: 4171
Introduction:
Dr. Paul Ehrlich states “The battle to feed al of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s
hundreds of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked
upon now”. He argues “If we don’t do something dramatic about
population and environment, and do it immediately, there’s just no hope that
civilization will persist” (1974).
Jared Diamond says population growth and
overusing natural resources lead to social collapse. Dr. Donald Aiken says “The government has to step in and tamper
with religious and personal convictions---maybe even impose penalties for every
child a family has beyond two” (wattenberg,1974). Some other scholars go
further and attribute overpopulation to other causes such as: poverty,
unemployment, environmental degradation, economic stagnation and political
instability.
These are well known statements we hear from
some academic institutions and media. Some questions arise from these statements. Is
population growth a threat for mankind? Is the world overpopulated? Is
overpopulation a real threat or it is just a myth which diverts attention away
from the real causes? Are these problems mentioned above, the effects of
overpopulation or is overpopulations itself an effect? These are some questions
which this paper will attempt to analyze. Before we begin the main discussion,
it would be useful to have some information about the concept of “Overpopulation”,
and some theories about population size through our history. Where did these
views derive from and who introduced it for the first time? In the next section
some of these theories will be briefly explained.
1-The History of population’s Theories:
The concept of population size and population
growth has been interesting subject for mankind since ancient time. Two main
reasons have been the motivation for population size: Religious dogma and
power. Zoroastrianism, Christianity and Islam have encouraged their followers to
be “Fruitful and Multiply” and populate the Earth. On the other hand, some
ancient civilizations such as Greeks and Romans advocated maximizing population
size in order to become more powerful and stronger than other nations (Britannica,2009).
1-1- Mercantilists:
Between the 16th and 18th
century most European societies were dominated by mercantilists. This economic group
believed that large population provides larger labour supply, markets, armies
for defence and foreign expansion such as colonialization. Their slogan was “The larger the population, the richer the
nation”. Therefore, most of these countries emphasized and focused on
population growth (Britannica,2009).
1-2-
Physiocrats:
In 18th century another school of
thought that was popular in Europe, was “The Physiocrats”.
The Physiocrats were economists who believed
that the wealth of a nation is derived from the value of agricultural land and
agricultural development. This group argued that economic wealth can be
achieved from land and agriculture not from population growth (Britannica,2009).
1-3-
Utopians:
Another school of thought in the 18th century
was the Utopians. This group believed that humans are mature enough to manage
their own lives. Therefore, societies do not need coercive institutions such as
police, law, property ownership and family. They believed that all amount of
resources must be controlled by all people in society and if there is any
limits in population growth, it must be established by people in society. One
of the leading proponents of this view was Daniel Malthus the father of Thomas
Robert Malthus the founder of social demography. T.R. Malthus was influenced by
his father to ideas about population size, food production and relationship
between these two concepts. (Britannica,2009). Now we have some knowledge about
these theories it would be useful to know who explored modern demography for
first time. In the next section Malthus’s population theory will be discussed.
2-Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834):
Malthus was a British political economist and
demographer. His major contribution to economic and social thought came in the
essay “The principles of population”. This controversial theory made
him one of the central figures in population debates in the 19th and
20th centuries (Elwell,2006). Today some scholars known as
“Neo-Malthusians” use Malthus’s theory and assert that contemporary problems
such as poverty and environmental degradation in developing countries are the
effects of overpopulation. In order to understand the Neo-Malthusian view is
better to have some knowledge about Malthus’s social theory.
2-1- Malthus Social Theory :( Elwell,2006)
The population theory of Malthus has been
rejected by many scholars, but without any doubt it can be said that his ideas
have had important effects, not only in demography, but also in public policy,
classical & neoclassical economy and biology. In 1798, Malthus published
the first edition of his essay anonymously. In that time, some Utopians
scholars like M. Condorcet and W. Godwin
had published their views and predicted a future world without disease,
anguish, melancholy, or resentment (Leathers&Foster,2004). In fact, Malthus
wrote his essay in response to the Utopians, but the lack of empirical evidence
and anonymity of the writer caused that this essay became the target of broad
discussion and attack. These criticisms stimulated Malthus to collect more data
and evidence in order to better defends his hypothesis, which he pursued in
future editions of his essay. In his essay, Malthus analyzed the relationship
between population growth and food resources.
According to Malthus, the humankind has two
basic needs: food and sex. The first need leads humankind to production of food
and the later to reproduction of children. Malthus stated “The rate of reproduction
is higher than the production of food”. Malthus argued that the population size
(unchecked) increases in a geometrical ratio ie.2,4,8,16,32,64 and food
resources increase in an arithmetical ratio ie.1,2,3,4,5,6. He stated that the
population will be double in size in next 25 years and our food resources will
not be enough to feed all the population. Therefore, we must check the
population growth by using two types of control: Preventive and Positive checks
which both have negative consequences for individuals as well as
societies.
2-2- Preventive
Check:
According to Malthus, the preventive check can
be done in different ways. The ideal type for Malthus was, to practice the
celibacy before marriage and marry late until a couple can support their children.
Malthus believed this action creates misery for humankind. He stated that
desire for sex is one of the basic human needs and constraining this desire
leads the individual towards “unnatural acts” such as prostitution, and the use
of birth control. Malthus argued that by using preventive check some other
problems will b occur in society.
First it increases unhappiness among men and women.
Second it decreases life expectancy, as an effect of sexually transmitted diseases
and drugs. Finally, the practice of non-productive sexuality destroys the
virtues and purity of manners in family as well as society (Elwell,2006).
2-3- Positive
Check:
Malthus stated that there must be balance
between the population size and subsistence from the environment. He argued
that the lack of space for grows and nutrition enforces animals and plants use
this type of check and they do not feed their offspring. In humankind this
positive check would be some natural or artificial disasters which reduce the
large number of human populations such as, famine, disease, hard labour,
misery, war and unwholesome occupations.
Based on these statements Malthus illustrated
cyclical relationship between production and reproduction. He argued when the
food production increases, the price of food will decrease and this easy access
to cheap food stimulates the families to have more children. The rise in
population creates two problems. First the demand for food increases and as a
result the prices go up and second the number of workers increases and as a
result the wages decrease and through an unfair competition the new labourers
will work harder, longer and cheaper.
These events induce the farmers to increase the
productivity by hiring more workers and putting more land under cultivation. And
again, this increase in productivity stimulates reproduction. According to
Malthus, this cycle is not static because some other events such as wars,
disease, economic cycles, technological breakthrough and government action can
influence and disrupt it. Malthus claimed that this problem has always existed
and will continue in the future societies. Thus, he concluded that inequality
lies in the structure of human societies and that equal distribution of wealth
and resources to all can not be achieved.
He stated that every society needs a working
class and the labourers are responsible to wrest resources from nature. He
believed that self-interest and private property provide stimulation and
motivation for human thought and action. In this case, Malthus stated that
inequality is a natural phenomenon in the social structure of human society. In
fact, Malthus could not analyze logically the cause of poverty in his social
theory, although, he did not believe that the poor people were responsible for
their condition and he said the poor “Are the unhappy persons who, in the great
lottery of life, have drawn a blank” (Elwell,2006).
As mentioned in the beginning of this paper, Malthus’s
theory was controversial idea in those years at different fields. However, Malthus
was a proponent of free medical care for the poor, universal education and
democratic institutions which in those years were radical ideas, but many scholars
such as Marx criticized him and some religious institutes accused him to
blasphemy. Marx harshly criticized Malthus theory and called him a “Miserable
parson” guilty of publishing “Vile and infamous doctrine”. Marx stated that
these problems which Malthus states occur only in capitalist systems. He argued
that under socialism and with functioning state the surplus product of labour
and wealth will be distributed equally among all people in society and this will
eliminate the poverty (Britannica,2009) On the contrary there were some other
scholars which appreciated Malthus ideas. Charles Darwin the founder of
Evolution Theory acknowledged a great debt to Malthus in the development of his
theory of Natural Selection (Britannica). Besides social theory, it can be said
that Malthus was one of the scholars during the Enlightenment that provided
rational explanations for social development. Like a philosopher he used reason
and empirical data to postulate abstract theories in different fields in
society such as economy, population and the relationships between them.
This was
a short explanation about Malthus and his social theory. In the next section
the view of Neo-Malthusians will be explained. This school of thought believes
that all contemporary problems are the effects of overpopulation.
3- Neo-Malthusians view:
One of the most influential views at the
present time about population is Neo-Malthusianism. The
proponents of this view based on Malthus social theory argue that rapid
population growth causes different social, environmental, economic and
political problems.
P. Ehrlich in his book” The Populations Bomb” (1974)
states that:
“Remember, overpopulation does not normally
mean too many people for the area of a country, but too many people in relation
to the necessities and amenities of life. Overpopulation occurs when numbers
threaten values”.
He continues that the world is running out of
food because of overpopulation and according to him “the battle to feed
humanity is lost”. He states that half of the world population suffers from
little food and scarcity of proteins and vitamins in their diet.
Furthermore, he continues that rapid population
growth has influenced the face of the Earth and as a result some organisms both
plants and animals are now extinct. Based on these explanations, he concludes
that environmental degradation has negative impacts on human life not only
physically but also mentally and as a result we are witnessing more riots,
rising crime rates, disaffection of youth, and increased drug usage in our
societies (Ehrlich,1974).
Some other Neo-Malthusian scholars suggest that
government must be more involved and, in some cases, must impose punishments
for people who do not follow the population control program.
One of the strongest positions on population
control comes from Dr. Garret Hardin when he says “In the long run voluntarism
is insanity. The result will be continued uncontrolled population growth” (Ben.Wattenberg,1974).
In this particular case it means that it is necessary for a government to
enforce the people to have fewer children.
These scholars blame the overpopulation in developing
countries for the responsible cause of environmental degradation. In different
international and domestic conferences, they argue that deforestation and air
pollution occurring in developing countries, threaten the whole world. According
to this view, the overexploitation of lands and natural resources causes these
environmental problems. Generally, the whole Neo-Malthusian view can be
illustrated more in paragraph below. This paragraph states that:
“In the New Malthusian view it is argued that
rapid population growth results in widespread poverty, economic stagnation,
environmental destruction, rapid urbanization, unemployment, and political
instability. During the years of Cold War and the Vietnam War, in particular
the view prevailed that overpopulation, resulting in mass hunger, was a
breeding ground for revolutionary activity”. (Hewitt&
Smyth,2000).
At this point we have some knowledge about
Malthus social theory and Neo-Malthusian view. In order to illustrate more our discussion,
it would be useful to have some knowledge about the theory of demographic
transition.
4- The Demographic Transition Theory :(Leathers&Foster,2004)
This theory classifies the population growth by
considering the fertility and mortality. The first formulation was explored by
English demographer Warren Thompson in 1929 and later developed by Frank
Notestein in 1945 (Britannica,2009). According to this view the World
population growth passes through four stages.
4-1-
Stage I
Preindustrial
stage: In this stage both
fertility and mortality are unchecked. The birth rates are higher than death
rates. However, some disasters such as wars, famines and epidemic diseases
cause population loss, but population grows slowly.
4-2-
Stage II
Mortality
Decline before fertility decline: In this stage by help of better public medical care, better food, and
water supplies, death rates decrease and life expectancy increases. If the
birth rate does not change by some disastrous events, the population will grow
rapidly.
4-3-
Stage III
Fertility
decline: As a result of more
urbanization and industrialization the birth rate usually decreases because
more people are interested to limit their family size. Maybe periodic
population grows rapidly, but when the death rates and death rates are even the
population grows slowly and may even fall to zero or below.
4-4-
Stage IV
Modern
Stage: In this level, both the
birth rate and the death rate are low and population size is stable. The family
size is small at about two children per family and if the fertility rate
increases, population size increases slowly. The figure 1 below illustrates the demographic transition theory.
Population
Time
A B C D
Figure 1: Demographic transition theory
:(Leathers&Foster,2004)
A: Stage I: High birth &death rates.
B: Stage II: Birth rate high, declining
mortality.
C: Stage III: Declining birth rate.
D: Stage IV: Low birth&death rate.
There are several reasons which confirm the
demographic transition theory. Below are some examples that will be discussed. Based on demographic transition it can be concluded
that:
First, developed countries passed through these
stages and are at stage IV and in some cases even the birth rate is less than
death rate in these countries. For example, statistic shows that Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden
Second, a comparison of population growth rates
between developed and developing countries show that the birth rate in
developing countries is higher than developed countries.
These are the population growth rates of three
continents in the period 1995-2000.
- Africa : 2.35 percent per year
- Asia : 1.41 percent per year
- Europe : 0.02 percent per year
These statistics shows also that developed countries
(Europe ) are in the last stage (D) of
demographic transition.(Leathers&Foster,2004)
In order to illustrate more differences, let us
compare two countries from developed and developing countries, Norway and Afghanistan
|
Year
|
Population growth rate (%)
|
Year
|
Population growth rate (%)
|
|
2000
|
0.5
|
2000
|
3.54
|
|
2001
|
0.49
|
2001
|
3.48
|
|
2002
|
0.47
|
2002
|
3.43
|
|
2003
|
0.46
|
2003
|
3.38
|
|
2004
|
0.41
|
2004
|
4.92
|
|
2005
|
0.4
|
2005
|
4.77
|
|
2006
|
0.38
|
2006
|
2.67
|
|
2007
|
0.363
|
2007
|
2.625
|
|
2008
|
0.35
|
2008
|
2.626
|
(Norway Afghanistan
Table 1 :( (Indexmundi.com,2009)
The table 1
illustrates that the population growth rate in Afghanistan
is much higher than in Norway
5- Discussion:
Malthus
can be named as the founder of modern demography, but there are some
contradictions in his social theory. He did not predict the technological,
social and cultural development and their effects in human life. At the present
time based on technological inventions in different fields of science,
agricultural production has increased enough to feed the total population in
the world. Different medical methods have been explored in order to limit or
prevent pregnancy such as contraception, sterilization and abortion.
On the
other hand, these scientific developments have been accompanied with social and
cultural progressive changes such as small family size.
Logical philosophy states that when we are
facing a problem, the use of the cause and effect formula would be the best
alternative. Otherwise, the problem will not be solved fundamentally. One of
the major contradictions in Neo-Malthusian view is that they do not analyze the
poverty and overpopulation in developing countries through this casual reasoning
formula. In fact, the Neo-Malthusian view tries to divert the public discourse
from the real causes of poverty by emphasizing the effects of overpopulation.
However, based on statistics published by some
international organizations such as UN it can be derived that population growth
rates in developing countries are higher than developed countries, but it has
to be emphasized that overpopulation is one of the effects of poverty. It means
the people are not poor because they have many children; but have many children
because they are poor. In order to highlight more our discussion, let us
examine the cause of overpopulation.
5-1- Some
of The causes of overpopulation:
As mentioned above the population growth is
higher in developing countries. There are some socio-economic and political
factors involved in this case. Here below some of them will be briefly
explained:
5-1-1- The
lack of access to proper health care, food, drinking water, and education
increase the infant mortality.
The high infant mortality rates in developing
countries enforce the women to have more births in order to be sure that some
of children survive until adulthood.
5-1-2-
Severe poverty forces the parents to have more children.
Because the children have economic values for
parents and in some cases, they may relieve their mothers from work. In
developing countries, children begin to work from the age of 6 or 7 years old.
For example, in Iran
5-1-3-
Children have more security in elderly time for parents.
There is no welfare and social security for
people especially for the elderly. The children (especially sons) are
responsible to provide security for their parents during their old age.
Therefore, parents try to have more children in order to ensure their future.
5-1-4-
Having more children equals more power during a conflict:
The lack of rule of law and instability forces
the parents to have more children in order to defend themselves against other
ethnic group offences. The countryside in Iran
5-1-5-
Gender inequality:
The lack of good governance and proper education
has created traditional and patriarchal societies in developing countries. As a
result, the women have unequal rights and this has created social and cultural
obstacles for women. In some developing countries, young women are forced to
marry under the age of 18 years old and the best role for them is to be a “Good
mother”. In most of developing countries, they do not have even control over
their bodies (fertility and sexuality) and abortion is prohibited for them. (Iran
Based on the statements noted above, it can be
concluded that overpopulation in developing countries is an effect of poverty
itself. In order to solve this problem, we have to find a fundamental solution
for abolishing poverty.
6- Conclusion:
In conclusion I have to imply that there is no
relevant relation between these Malthusian theories and development in the
third world countries and overpopulation can not be the cause of
underdevelopment and poverty. Based on the demographic transition theory and
other statistics published by international organizations like UN it can be
said that population growth rates in developing countries are higher than
developed countries. This statement also shows that countries with high income
have less overpopulation problem. As it noted in this paper the Neo-Malthusian
view claims that rapid population growth causes different problems like,
Poverty, economic stagnation, environmental destruction, air pollution etc.
As I explained in this paper all these problems
are the results of underdevelopment and poverty in third world countries.
Poverty is the cause of overpopulation and criminal activities. When people in
third world countries do not have access to clean energy, they use fuel-wood. When
they can not afford fertilizers for their agricultural land, they burn the land
and leave it for one year to be suitable and strong enough again for
cultivation.
Here I have to emphasize that the only solution
for all these problems is sustainable development. Sustainable development can
be achieved through good governance.
In order to achieve sustainable development
some policies must be taken seriously and simultaneously by governments, including:
- Good macro and micro economic development
programs.
- Good land reform and agricultural
development.
- Fundamental investments in human capital. It
means proper education, healthcare, family planning, improved nutrition and
anti poverty programs.
- Rule of law, civil and civic society.
In addition, one of the most important factors
would be establishing, democracy, freedom and equal rights for both men and
women.
All these factors must be done simultaneously,
because all of them are related to each other and none of them can be achieved
fundamentally without others.
M.Sirani 5.5.2009 Norway
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