The "Thucydides Trap" of the USA, As a Declining Power, Is Not A War With China; It Is The War of the USA Against Iran as we observe. An Exceptional Historical Anomaly is Taking Shape and Form Before Our Eyes, IMO.
Some scholars have written many essays and articles in this regard especially in the recent months and weeks. According to these scholars and historical analogies, the concept of "Thucydides Trap" in our current world, should occur between the USA as a declining super power and China as the most powerful rising power. But in my opinion based on many reasons including the biggest strategic error of the USA and Israel (Trump and Netanyahu administrations) in attacking Iran, the Geo-Strategic position of Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the notion that the entire Persian Gulf provide nearly 20% fossil energy for the entire world, the concept of Petro-Dollar and how the result of this war would impact this precious and powerful tool of the USA, etc, i can say lucky or unlucky, the concept of "Thucydides Trap" has emerged between the current war between the USA and Iran. To put it simply, due to the biggest strategic mistake of Trump and Netanyahu administration in waging this war, The Lottery Ticket of Thucydides Trap Has Fallen in the Hands of Iran, instead of China. An exceptional Historical Anomaly is taking shape and form before our eyes, in my opinion. Iran would highly likely win this war. If Iran develops its nuclear weapon, the victory of Iran would be guaranteed.
The costly and devastating defeat of the USA in the war against Iran would force the USA to leave many areas in the Middle East and focus more on the Western Hemispheres as a regional power. In such a exhausted and weak condition in many terms, the USA would not be able to go to a war against China. It might not be able to project the posture of a super power anymore. From this point, the position of Iran not only at regional level within The Persian Gulf but also at the global level would experience a Sudden Skyrocketing Jump. Based on this and what briefly would be explored in the following impromptu paragraphs, i can say at such a stage Iran and the Persian Gulf Would Become the Epicenter of the Emergence of the New World System. And before too long, the effect of such a massive development would spread to the rest of the world in different ways.
This is my prediction.
It was 2011, when the prominent IR scholar K. Waltz published his essay claiming a nuclear armed Iran would create a balance of power between Iran and Israel in the Middle East and accordingly develop a more peaceful and stable environment in the region.
As a first month student of MA (IR), Waltz's essay in this regard encouraged me to critically write an essay about it. In that time, i had chosen an extensive Aug course (5 Credits). At the end of that one-month course, i wrote my essay entitled "Iran should not get the nuclear bomb". In that essay, which has been uploaded in my weblog, i tried to refute Waltz's argument in that regard.
After observing and evaluating many events in the past couple of years including the recent military attacks against Iran, i should sincerely admit that K. Waltz was right, i was wrong. My argument in that time was mainly derived from my emotion and fundamental disagreement with current political system; not logical and analytical impartiality. For re-correcting my past analytical error regarding this matter, i express my opinion regarding possessing the nuclear weapon by Iran in the following paragraph.
Briefly:
Considering many factors including the serious threat for sovereignty, territorial integrity of Iran, the extremely Geo-Strategic position of Iran in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of a fair, impartial, powerful & authoritative entity within our current international institution-The UN, etc, i strongly believe that Iran should develop its own nuclear weapon as soon as possible. This important task is the matter of preserving national security-interest, territorial integrity, protecting the Iranian citizens and the infrastructure of Iran against any foreign threat by having an ultimate weapon of deterrence.
This is a fact, Nuclear weapon is a member of WMD category. But in reality, nuclear weapon is a political & Defensive weapon. In case of acquiring it, Iran would not use it against any other nation-state. The current political system in Iran, whether we agree with it or fundamentally disagree with it like someone in exile like me, is a rationale actor and knows this matter clearly. But, The possession of nuclear weapon would prevent many foreign countries to militarily attack Iran and pursue some plans regarding disintegration and fragmentation of Iran. Nuclear weapon maximizes the overall security of Iran and the Iranian People against any foreign intruder. As such, acquiring nuclear weapon by Iran at current critical historical juncture does not have and should not have any contradiction with the Fetwa of the late Supreme Leader of Iran. Simply because, at the present time, Iran, the Iranian people and territorial integrity of Iran are at serious danger. These important necessities would ideologically justify the development of nuclear weapon by Iran. I hope the current decision makers in Iran would pay more attention to the importance of this matter and fulfill their duty at current critical moment by developing nuclear weapon ASAP.
A nuclear armed Iran would create a new and fair balance of power between Iran and Israel in the entire Middle East. Such a development creates a more peaceful and stable environment in the entire region. In the following steps of such a development, Iran can try to establish a some type of modern "Westphalian Treaty" (A Comprehensive Non-Aggression Treaty) in the Persian Gulf with other Arab States or go further provide a "Nuclear Umbrella Shield" for Arab States or the entire Middle East, or some type of "Regional Defense Pact", etc. In case of designing a good strategic plan and its proper implementation, Iran can achieve and provide many positives, progressive and peaceful development not only for itself and the Iranian People but also for many states in the entire Middle East and their citizens by a series of moves briefly noted above. This is the time for Iran to detach itself from RELIGIOUS DOGMA and go for such a historical bold and positive move.
Iran should pay attention to many developments including:
1- Disarming the Hezbollah in Lebanon is on the table. In case of eruption of a civil war in Lebanon between the army and Hezbollah forces, the Israeli forces from the South and the Syrian army from the East would highly likely invade Lebanon against the Hezbollah.
2- Saudi Arabia has signed a military pact with Pakistan. Disarming the Ansarollah (Houthis) in Yemen is on the table. Trump and Netanyahu administrations have been adjusting different puzzle pieces and have a broad plan for the entire Middle East. At the center of this plan, Iran is the only heavy weight barrier, etc.
Iran should develop its nuclear weapon. Such a development would change the equation in a very profound and positive manner; in addition it fully protects the sovereignty, territorial integrity of Iran and the Iranian citizens.
In conclusion: From the way that i evaluate this war and capabilities of both sides, its developments, etc i can with high level of certainty say that Trump administration has two options as follows:
A- Performing damage control policy by accepting the demands of Iran (More or less with compromise), and retreating and putting an end to this war. In such an option, the USA would undoubtedly pay a price. That is the price of its own biggest strategic mistake-miscalculation in attacking Iran.
B- The USA can continue with this war, hoping that a miracle might happen down the road and change the outcome of this war for the benefit of the USA. I put aside, that the chance for such a miracle is extremely low and nearly impossible. But i can say in case of choosing this option, the USA would pay an extremely higher price at the end of the road, extremely much more than the option A, as briefly explored some details in this impromptu article.
P.S. In case of any radical change in the entire political system in Iran, those nuclear weapons would not leave Iran. They are the national security and wealth of Iran and the Iranian Nation. They would remain in Iran and protect the Nation-State of Iran for ever.
P.S. I have posted some details of this article including "Thucydides Trap", etc on X platform. Those, who are interested can check my account: @MSirani. Of course, if pro Trump, Netanyahu and Musk employees do not cover them with visibility ban , etc as usual.
M. Sirani 22.07.2026
