No matter the US would sign a security agreement with the current Afghan government or not, Afghanistan will fall in the hands of the Taliban after a bloody civil war as soon as the US and NATO troops would leave the country in late 2014. We should all be aware of self deception and not fall pray to it. The US and NATO troops (nearly 150,000 personnel) have not been able to defeat the Taliban after all these years. How would a security agreement, which allows some American troops (Between 6000 to 9000 personnel) remain in Afghanistan, be able to save the Afghan government against the Taliban?
Moreover, the president Karzai would try to ignore this security agreement with the US. The reason behind this is that the president Karzai might think that he would be able to keep the power in Afghanistan by making a deal or a type of reconciliation (Misassumption) with the Taliban. In this respect, I can say that the president Karzai is in the totally wrong direction. The Taliban would not share the political power in Afghanistan with anyone including Karzai. This is an inseparable ideological characteristic of the Taliban.
As soon as the US and NATO troops would begin to leave Afghanistan, the Taliban would start to seize the power step by step in the whole country. This process would be accompanied with some events as follows.
1- The country would experience a new wave of civil war worse than what it is now.
2- The Karzai's government would finally collapse.
3- Afghanistan would become another battlefield between Iran's troop (Shiite followers) and some troops supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, some other Arab countries in the region and Pakistan (Taliban + Sunni followers).
In sum, Afghanistan would become the biggest fiasco of the US and NATO in the world in different terms (e.g. Nation building, capacity building, economic, political, social, cultural, etc).
M. Sirani 02.12.2013
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