The recent nuclear deal between Iran and the six world powers in Geneva has been elevating the level of uncertainty and instability among most of the countries in the Middle East particularly for the two regional powers of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Although, there is no clear light at the end of nuclear negotiation's tunnel with Iran, both Israel and Saudi Arabia feel truly threatened about this deal. There is simple explanation behind this matter.
The politicians in both Israel and Saudi Arabia think that a nuclear deal and more generally any normal relation between Tehran and Washington would offer the Islamic Regime good opportunities from different aspects as following. Firstly, such a nuclear negotiation marathon would give the Islamic Regime enough time to obtain nuclear weapon secretly and gradually. Secondly, any normal relations between Tehran and Washington would indirectly offers Iran free hand to continue further with its hegemonic and expansionist behavior in different parts of the Middle East. These two issues would endanger the security of not only Israel and Saudi Arabia but also their close allies in different parts of the Middle East. These issues, in addition, would threatened Saudi Arabia economically. If Iran would be able to deceive its Western counterparts following the nuclear negotiation, the US and E3 group would lift the economic sanctions on Iran. As such, Iran would be able to sell its oil and gas freely in the international market. Such a event, would decrease the oil revenue of Saudi Arabia to some extent and the same time would economically empower Iran. These assumptions and predictions of the politicians in Israel and Saudi Arabia might be right to some extent based on many reasons. The US reluctance with regards to the Syrian civil war in the last couple of months and recent military deal of selling the Hellfire missiles and ScanEagle drones to Iraq are just some examples, which could be understood in this respect. Through these types of behaviors the US would try to ease the tension with Iran.
Such issues, however, have desperately pushed both Israel and Saudi Arabia toward Russia. Because, Russia is the only actor, which might be able to solve the problems of both Israel and Saudi Arabia at this critical moment. Russia is the main supplier of Iran's nuclear facility-technology and at the same time Russia is the major supporter of Bashar Asad in Syria. During the last couple of months, however, the high ranking officials of Saudi Arabia and Israel have had different meetings with Russian politicians in order to change the behavior of the Kremlin with regards to Iran's nuclear activity and the Syrian civil war. As the media reveal, all these attempts have been failed; Russia has not changed its behavior with regards to these matters up until this moment.
In sum, the US reluctance and Russian ignorance in these matters, however, have been forcing Israel and Saudi Arabia to take care of these problems by their own. Saudi Arabia's massive financial aid to Egypt could be understood in this respect. By this move, Saudi Arabia against the will of the US, the EU, and Iran has been helping the military force in Egypt to defeat the Muslim Brotherhood. The recent Saudi Arabia's 3$ billion grant to the Lebanese army could also be understood in this respect. Through this type of aid, Saudi Arabia would try to gradually decrease the power and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and consequently in Syria. For the first time, the Lebanese army fired anti-aircraft guns at two Syrian helicopters that violated the Lebanese airspace yesterday. This is the first sign of Saudi Arabia's new tactic in the Middle East; a type of self-help. Such a new tactic, consequently, will increase the level of tension in different parts of the Middle East. As such, we will possibly witness more tension and sectarian violence inside Lebanon (between Hezbollah and Sunni groups), Iraq, between Lebanon & Syria, between Israel & Lebanon (Hezbollah) and possibly between Gaza Strip and Israel, in Bahrain, Yemen along with Afghanistan, much more than what we have experienced in the last couple of years. These tensions will not be limited to the Middle East; it will spread to some parts of the former Soviet Union territorial geography as well.
M. Sirani 31.12.2013
No comments:
Post a Comment