Following the latest chemical attack in Syria, we could change the course of the Syrian civil war by showing a quick and appropriate response to Asad's Regime (Not militarily). If we could do that, we would have been able to paralyze both the Iranian and Syrian Regimes to some degree with regards to this civil war, as I proposed in my short note titled "A plan that might save the world from an additional disaster". If we managed to do that, we would have been able to use this opportunity as a powerful tool and put extra pressure not only on Asad's Regime, but also on Iran with regards to its ambitious nuclear activity. Unfortunately, we didn't do that or I might say: Nobody did pay attention to my proposal in this matter. Contrary to all of us, Iran and Russia used that horrific chemical attack and proposed their own proposal. As such, Russia and Iran took the upper hand with regards to the Syrian civil war. This issue, in return, has contributed Iran extra opportunity with regards to its nuclear negotiation with the West and other conflictual issues in the Middle East. To put it simply, at the present, Iran has two powerful winning cards on its hands: 1- the Syrian civil war and 2- its nuclear activity. By using these two important issues, Iran has completely paralyzed the international community. When it comes to losing the sight in Syria, Iran uses its nuclear activity card and vice versa.
The recent Geneva interim nuclear agreement, however, has created a false hope among the Western politicians in the sense that they think they might also be able to solve the Syrian civil war cooperatively with help of the Iranian Regime somewhere in the future. The future events, however, will show that Iran would neither limit its nuclear weapon program nor would give up its powerful position within Syria. Iran's nuclear program has likely passed the redline, but we might be able to minimize or to some extent prevent the further escalation and negative consequences of the Syrian civil war.
In order to achieve this, we should implement three basic tasks.The first and important task that the international community can/should do, is the implementation of a temporarily (and later sustainable) truce between different actors within Syria (as I have proposed it in my previous notes too).The second task can/should be dismantling and defeating the Jihadists in the whole country.
While this process continues, the Syrian oppositions should focus on their organization structures as the third important task. This is a fact that the Syrian oppositions consisted of nearly 100 different groups would not be able to govern the country after Bashar Asad in an appropriate, democratic and stable manner. It should be mentioned that I'm totally agree with political pluralism. But we should bear in mind that we cannot copy the type of political pluralism, which we have in the West, and use it in Syria at this stage based on many reasons. If we think and act in this way, Syria after Bashar Asad would become a country like current Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan. In other words, we would change the political system in Syria from a modern dictatorship (Asadsim) to a more traditional dictatorship (tribalism). This means simply a disastrous backward shift in the Syrian political system. Therefore, my suggestion to those how are responsible for capacity-building or I might say: Nation-Building, is: reorganizing and reconstruction of the Syrian oppositions in a fundamental and appropriate manner. Otherwise, we will create another failure state or another fiasco in the Middle East. As I follow the news I see a positive sign. The positive sign is that West doesn't want to totally destruct the structure of power in different terms in Syria; something like that West has done in Iraq or Afghanistan. This is a good sign but is not enough. The Syrian oppositions need also a fundamental reconstruction and reorganization.
In sum, by implementing these three tasks alone, we cannot solve the Syrian conflict in a comprehensive and fundamental manner. But without performing these three basic tasks, we would not be able to take a single progressive step with regards to the Syrian civil war.
M. Sirani 19.01.2014
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