Sunday, January 19, 2014

Two Achievable Points in the Coming Geneva II Peace Conference.

Briefly:

Almost all the internal and external actors, who are attending Geneva II peace conference (Except Russia and the Syrian authority) are agree to the point that Bashar Asad should give up the power in Syria. As a neutral observer, I agree with this point too. Simply, due to the fact that during the past three years nearly 130,000 innocent Syrian people have lost their lives in this conflict and Bashar Asad is one of those main responsible person in this inhuman matter. Thus, based on basic moral, ethical and justice principles, we can say that Bashar Asad should hand over the power to the Syrian people or at least to a neutral third party as soon as possible. This is a request that I wish. I'm pretty sure that most of the people around the world including most of those, who are attending Geneva II conference think the same as me in this issue.

At this juncture, we should ask ourselves some questions as follows. Do we (by we, I mean those who want Asad leaves the power) have extraordinary upper hand in the Syrian civil war at this stage? Do we have enough power (in different terms) to push Asad and his close affiliates from Syria? Do we achieve any positive outcome in this conference by some request such as "Asad should go"? Finally, Is this request achievable in the coming Geneva conference particularly at this stage?

As I follow the development in Syria, I believe the answer to all these questions is negative. However, one might say the point that Asad should give up the power is not a new demand. This is something that almost all the actors have agreed in Geneva first conference. In other words, this is an unchangeable demand.

I fully aware of this point and agree with it. However, we should bear in mind that sometimes there are huge distances between our wishes and our achievable goals. So is the case of current Geneva II conference. To put it simply, we should consider some important issues at this stage. These issues are including: the high level of importance and sensitivity of this conference in terms of gathering different internal and external actors to attend, ongoing damages in different terms inside Syria, overall negative consequences of this conflict either in and out of Syria, and importantly the presence of different Jihadist groups inside Syria. Moreover, we should accept the fact that the situation in Syria has become more complex than it was before due to the different reasons, which are out of the scope of this note. Furthermore, we should measure and analyze our influential power and ability (in different terms) in this conflict. Based on these considerations, then, we should design our demand and request in the coming Geneva II conference; some type of demand and request, which might easily be achievable and would be profitable for most of the actors involved in this conflict. Otherwise, we will lose this small opportunity at this critical stage.

Based on all noted above, I believe two important points are achievable and at the same time profitable for most of the internal and external actors involved in the Syrian conflict. These two points are including: 1- implementing a temporary truce, and 2- defeating and dismantling those Jihadist groups inside Syria. An agreement about these two points would ease the tension between both sides of this conflict. Such an event, consequently, would facilitate a cooperative environment between those actors, who are involved in this conflict. If we would be able to make such a deal in the coming Geneva II conference, we might be able to find a fundamental, sustainable and diplomatic solution for this conflict in the next following steps.

*International relations is like a chess game. Sometimes, we can checkmate our opponent with three or four sudden moves; sometimes, we cannot. In such a circumstance, we should play some additional moves smartly and smoothly. Some moves, which would facilitate the way for us towards our final goal indirectly; in the sense that finally, we would be able to checkmate our opponent.   


M. Sirani                            20.01.2014  
 

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