Sunday, August 31, 2014

Don't Push Russia Too Far; Ukraine Might Totally Lose Its Accessibility To Black Sea and Azov Sea.

The current tension in Ukraine is going to reach a critical point. If the tension between the West and Russia continues the same as it is now, there is high probability that Ukraine would lose some of its territory around Azov Sea and maybe near Black Sea. The new moves of Pro-Russian rebels, where they have seized some coastal towns near Azov Sea and today's president Putin statement, which he suggested independence for southeast Ukraine, could be understood in this respect. I had warned about this event in some of my previous short notes. Here below is one of them,

M. Sirani                          31.08.2014

Don't Push Russia Too Far; Ukraine Might Totally Lose Its Accessibility To Black Sea and Azov Sea.

During the last couple of weeks, I have repeatedly written some short notes about the wrong policy of the Western countries in Ukraine and its possible negative consequences. As it appears, still the current Western politicians do not have a logical and reasonable analysis about the current tension in Ukraine and more importantly, most of them underestimate the power and leverage of Russia in this matter.

If the combination of the Western countries, the current Ukrainian interim government, the ethnic Russians, who live in Ukraine, and Russia would not be able to find a diplomatic solution for this conflict as soon as possible, Ukraine would undoubtedly experience a devastating civil war. The result of this civil war would not be pleasant for neither the West, nor Ukraine. In such a scenario, Russia would be the main winner based on many reasons. Russia has enough leverages to divide Ukraine into two separated parts of 1- North-West Ukraine (Pro-West), and 2- East-South Ukraine (Pro-Russia). 

This means simply that the current Ukraine might lose its accessibility to Black Sea and Azov Sea. This is the ultimate and final goal of Russia, if it would not be able to preserve its interest in Ukraine.

M. Sirani                                    23.04.2014