Shooting Down Russian Jet And Helicopter Would Intensify the Tension in The Region. How Might Putin React?

Briefly:

Whether we like it or not, Putin is a rational actor in my opinion. He knows shooting down Russian jet and helicopter is a trap in order to facilitate the path toward NATO direct involvement in the tension in the Middle East. This is the will of Turkey amid changing the balance of power in the region. As such, the chance that Putin falls in this trap at least at this stage is very low. But that does not mean Putin forgets or forgives Turkey's aggression in this matter. In addition to arming Assad's Regime with highly sophisticated weapons, Putin can & might use other ways in order to retaliate today's Turkey act.

One of these ways might be arming the PKK (Kurdish separatist Group) by some anti-aircraft or anti-tank weapon, which would be used against Turkey army. This is something that Turkish authority should think about it.
As an old proverb says: Those, who live in glass houses, should not throw stone.


Note: There is low probability that Putin uses energy as a weapon in retaliation against Turkey.
Wonder why? 1- The most part of Russian economy depends on selling oil and gas. 2- The price of oil is very low at global market. 3- Russia is under the severe sanction by the West. 4- In many occasions, the western politicians have repeatedly accused Russia for using energy as a weapon against its enemies.. 5- Proxy war is cheaper, easy ( In the case of arming PKK is equivalent to Offshore balancing strategy) and in most of the cases, nobody can accuse the perpetrator. 6- Arming PKK is also acceptable for Iran. Iran itself has done it in the past in some occasion. etc. 



M. Sirani                            24.11.2015   

Secretary of State John Kerry Says: "There Was Some Type of Legitimacy or I might Say Rational Behind Charlie Hebdo Terror Attack"!!!!!.(Speechless for a an indefinite period of time).

Speechless for a an indefinite period of time.


Note: What a simple way for legitimizing and legalizing terror & barbarism. 

M. Sirani                   18.11.2015

Without Democratic Institutions, Secular Political System and Sustainable Development in Economic, Social, Cultural and Political Sectors, You Never Win the War Against Islamic Terrorist Groups.

This process should have started at least in 1990, following the collapse of Socialist political system in the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc.


M. Sirani                    18.11.2015

We Cannot Win An Ideological War By Military Operation Alone. Look At Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, Mali, etc. Do We Need More Examples to Understand This Simple Fact?

With Military Strike Alone, You Cannot Fundamentally Defeat ISIS Nor Any Other Islamic Terrorist Groups. You Need A Comprehensive, Broad and Long Term Strategy For Most Part of Asia, Middle East and Africa.

Briefly:

We cannot win an ideological war by military operation alone. The experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Nigeria, Mali, etc have shown this simple fact many times.



M. Sirani                17.11.2015

Impromptu: The Messenger of Terror (In Solidarity with all Victims of Terror Around the World and all Universal Humanitarian Values).

The Messenger of Terror

With an Old Testament in one hand,

And bloody sword in another one,

The messengers of hate, terror and horror, in vain,

Want to compel us to a regressive time travel,

Towards the darkest point of mankind history;

Wherein, there is no logic, reason or rationality

Neither tolerance, nor compromise, nor peace.

Their message is a clear compulsory choice:

“Kneel down, praise the Old Testament”,

“Or obey the order of my bloody sword”.

M. Sirani                    14.11.2015

A Group of Possibly Less Than 30 Terrorists Killed Nearly 140 Innocent People and Shut Down a Powerful Country At the Heart of the EU. Do We Understand the Scale & Level of Threat? Or Not Yet?

Once again i repeat:

With some moves, we can ease the tension in various parts of the Middle East and get rid of ISIS in both Syria and Iraq as well. It is not an easy task, due to the fact that many external actors are involved in all these tensions in the region; but it is possible.


M. Sirani            14.11.2015

The Citizens of EU Countries Do Not Experience Security & Safety, As Long As The Civil Wars in Syria, Iraq and Libya Continue.

In addition to those countries mentioned above, some other countries such as Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali and highly likely Tunisia are the bases for various Islamic terrorist groups at the present. But due to many factors including the lack of capability of terrorist groups,  these countries do not produce imminent threat for the EU at the present time. This condition, however, does not last for ever. As long as the international community would be able to defeat the terrorist groups in Syria, Iraq and Libya in a professional and fundamental manner, some of these terrorists would move to Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali and Tunisia and would begin with their unlawful and illegitimate activities in these countries.

Briefly: We should put an end to all civil wars in these countries as quickly as possible; otherwise we suffer a lot in the coming months and years, much more than what we are observing these days.


M. Sirani                 13.11.2015      

What Did i Warn On September, 2015? (ISIS Is Planing To Expand the Battlefield From Iraq & Syria Into the EU).

ISIS transferred its operational members into the EU through the influx of refugees. I warned this event through a short note (here below).  ISIS members are everywhere within the EU.


M: Sirani             13.11.2015




According to the news revealed by Express, ISIS has smuggled thousands of extremists into the EU. I anticipated such a event through a short note just four days ago. Here below is the copy of my short note.


M. Sirani           09.09.2015

Reference:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/555434/Islamic-State-ISIS-Smuggler-THOUSANDS-Extremists-into-Europe-Refugees

Here below is my previous note in this matter.

Warning: Those Genius EU Politicians, Who Say They Are Cutting Food and Shelter for Non-Refugees, Have Absolutely No Clue In What Type of Sh*** Critical Situation the EU Has Been Landing. 

Briefly:

Beyond the power and authority of anyone, the shadow of a huge threat has been arriving within the EU. Then some genius are saying they are cutting the food and shelter for non-refugees. Those genius think the current and future waves of refugees are like those, who arrived within the EU some years ago.  Just 0/05% wrong people among all can cause a huge disaster within the EU.

Some genius EU politicians still don't understand that just 4 terrorists caused the deployment of nearly 80,000 military and security forces across France during Charlie Hebdo attack.

For your own sake: Do not produce jargon; Just Wake Up. Deal with this crisis in an appropriate and professional manner; before it's too late. Otherwise, you will lose badly. As an example, nearly 60 states, some of them European, are the members of US-led coalition and are in a direct war against ISIS, Al.Qaeda, Al-Shebab and other terrorist groups across the Middle East and Africa.

Is it a difficult and impossible task that one or some of these terrorist groups would deploy some small numbers of their members to the EU through these large numbers of refugees? Is it difficult for this hypothetical small numbers to perform some lone wolf attacks within the EU? Should this happen (I hope not) what would be the reaction of public opinion within the EU states with regards to war against ISIS or other terrorist groups?

The answer is very simple: The citizens of such a state would force their government to retreat from the war against ISIS. The reason behind such a move is very simple: ISIS cannot compete with the US-led coalition highly sophisticated war planes neither in Iraq nor in Syria. But a terrorist act of a lone wolf within one of the EU countries can do a lot.  To put it simply, ISIS or maybe some other terrorist groups, by such a move would highly likely to expand the battlefield within geographical territory of the EU.  This sudden eruption of large scale refugees might not be a simple and ordinary move. Whether agree or disagree with my short note, we cannot deny the fact that there is some probability in this matter, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated.  

Therefore, i suggest the EU countries should deal with the current refugees crisis immediately and in a very appropriate, humane and professional manner; and be prepared for the next coming waves of refugees. And this is something that all the EU countries should coordinate and cooperate. This is a MUST, simply due to the lack of border guards among EU countries and the notion that a lone wolf act in one country within the EU would automatically impact the other EU states in different terms and forms. We should not forget that each member of the EU might have its own characteristics and rules in different terms, but when it comes to an important issue such as Security, all the members of union should perfectly coordinate and cooperate with each other. Otherwise the whole Union would become vulnerable and the negative consequences would be devastating for all.


Note: Don't misunderstand my short note. This is a fact that vast majority of these refugees are innocent and deprived people, who have been escaping from war zone areas to save themselves and their families. There is absolutely no doubt about it. My warning is about the possibility of a very small group of terrorists among these innocent people.

Once again, I hope my prediction in this matter would not come true; although i highly likely doubt about it based on many reasons, which exploring all of them is beyond the scope of this short note.

M. Sirani                  05.09.2015

According to CNN: Hostages Are Texting That They Are Being Killed 1-by-1. Begging For Police Raid.

Exclusive: France Under the Coordinated Attack of Terrorists; Nearly 100 Hostages, Multiple Shootings & Explosion (Possibly Suicide Bombing) Have Been Reported.

So far nearly 60 people have been killed and 100 being held hostage.

The Current Western Countries Policy & Political System in Afghanistan Do Not Function Properly. If Things Continue in This Way, The Future of Afghanistan Will Undoubtedly Be Determined By Iran, China & Russia Each From Different Perspectives.

Nazar Zaka An American- Lebanese Citizen (Somehow Related to Riverside Military Academy) Arrested in Iran on Espionage Charges.