Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Shooting Down Russian Jet And Helicopter Would Intensify the Tension in The Region. How Might Putin React?

Briefly:

Whether we like it or not, Putin is a rational actor in my opinion. He knows shooting down Russian jet and helicopter is a trap in order to facilitate the path toward NATO direct involvement in the tension in the Middle East. This is the will of Turkey amid changing the balance of power in the region. As such, the chance that Putin falls in this trap at least at this stage is very low. But that does not mean Putin forgets or forgives Turkey's aggression in this matter. In addition to arming Assad's Regime with highly sophisticated weapons, Putin can & might use other ways in order to retaliate today's Turkey act.

One of these ways might be arming the PKK (Kurdish separatist Group) by some anti-aircraft or anti-tank weapon, which would be used against Turkey army. This is something that Turkish authority should think about it.
As an old proverb says: Those, who live in glass houses, should not throw stone.


Note: There is low probability that Putin uses energy as a weapon in retaliation against Turkey.
Wonder why? 1- The most part of Russian economy depends on selling oil and gas. 2- The price of oil is very low at global market. 3- Russia is under the severe sanction by the West. 4- In many occasions, the western politicians have repeatedly accused Russia for using energy as a weapon against its enemies.. 5- Proxy war is cheaper, easy ( In the case of arming PKK is equivalent to Offshore balancing strategy) and in most of the cases, nobody can accuse the perpetrator. 6- Arming PKK is also acceptable for Iran. Iran itself has done it in the past in some occasion. etc. 



M. Sirani                            24.11.2015