Thursday, January 14, 2016

The Price of Oil Will Fall Further. This Trend Might Not Destabilize Iran & Russia; But Undoubtedly It Would Destabilize Many Other Countries in the Middle East & Africa. Such An Event Would Inevitably Drag Many Countries Into the Conflict.

Briefly: Have a greater and broader picture about the consequences of various tensions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia will continue with this trend and the price of oil will fall further. This issue would put pressure on Iran & Russia along with some other oil producer states; but it would not destabilize political systems in Iran & Russia based on many reasons. On the other hand, falling the price of oil further would destabilize many other countries mainly in Africa and the Middle East due to weak and undemocratic political systems. Such an event, would drag most part of the world into a new wave of global economic crisis and consequently would drag many countries into some type of conflict in all those unstable areas. In addition, we should bear in mind that the international community will lift the sanctions on Iran in the next coming week/weeks. This means, Iran can export its oil as well. This event will also decrease the price of oil in the market based on simple demand & supply formula. Such events will undoubtedly threaten the global financial sector to some degree as well. We can prevent such disasters by a master plan without firing a single bullet; The answer to the following question is My Masterpiece in this matter.    

Question:
The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority.  Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.     

The Questions:
1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.
2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere. 

Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles. 

M. Sirani                                 26.12.2015
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