I have some academic knowledge in International Development & International Relations. My specialty is analyzing the Islamic Regime of Iran, its domestic as well as foreign affairs. Among my essays uploaded in this blog 1- The structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (My bachelor thesis), 2- Iran should not get the nuclear bomb, 3- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and 4- An assessment about the Syrian civil war could be mentioned. Twitter: @MSirani
Monday, January 25, 2016
Warning: Prevent A New Economic Crisis & Instability in Many Areas in the Next Coming Months.
Briefly: Further falling the price of oil will undoubtedly threaten the regional & global economy & security particularly at the present time that we are experiencing a type of economic downturn at global level. Adding some other factors such as exporting Iran's oil (falling the price of oil), sanctions imposed on Russia (reducing the economic growth), increasing number of tensions in the Middle East & Africa, etc will inevitably threaten the global economy & security. There is "SO FAR" only one reliable and achievable solution, which can prevent such disasters in many weak & vulnerable states around the world and at the same time ease the tension in the whole Middle East to some extent. Question:
The Middle East is currently facing multidimensional ethnic, religious, economic, political and Geo-Strategical conflicts between various states and non-states actors. The scale of tension in different parts of the region has recently intensified. As some examples, A- we are currently observing: Russia and Iran have openly, publicly and increasingly involved militarily in the Syrian civil war. B- Turkey has increased its militarily presence in North Iraq and at the same time, Turkish army has once again started the war against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK after nearly two years truce. C- Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries have invaded Yemen, etc. These examples indicate a fact that some parts of the Middle East are on the verge of a long term cycle of instability. This cycle of instability will undoubtedly worsen and consequently will spread to other areas in the region somewhere in the future, if the UN or the international community will not be able to find a fundamental and tangible solution for at least some of these conflicts in an appropriate period of time. We should bear in mind that finding solution simultaneously for all these conflicts in the Middle East is not an impossible task. But without any doubt is an energy, time and resource consuming job to do specially at this critical juncture based on some reasons particularly: 1- The deep level of tension, mistrust and zero-sum game condition between various actors; e.g. between Iran and Saudi Arabia and 2- The notion that some of these conflicts have a long historical background and cannot be solved in a short period of time without any negative consequences in various terms; e.g. the conflict between Kurdish separatist organization PKK and Turkish authority. Based on the brief explanation noted above, answer the following questions.
1- Identify the main cause/causes of the recent intensification in these conflicts in the Middle East.
2- Based on your finding, design a master plan, which would ease the tension in the whole Middle East to a large extent in a way that we would be able to find solution for each conflict in the region one by one in a more stable, appropriate and peaceful atmosphere.
Note: H. Kissinger might have the answer; because i have seen some signs in his recent articles.
M. Sirani 26.12.2015
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