Warning: Petro-Yuan will Enter the Global Market As Early As End of This Year. This Even Might Highly Likely Hit the U.S. Stock Market.The Bubble Has Expanded Unrealistically in the Past Couple of Months & Weeks.

Bitcoin & some other U.S. based financial entities will be highly likely hit by this event.


M. Sirani                    28.10.2017

The Reflection of Thucydides's Peloponnesian War in Current Iraqi Kurdistan.

Briefly:

Kurdish authority has told Iraqi GOV that it is freezing the referendum & independence movement & is ready to negotiate with Baghdad. In response to this call, H. Al- Ebadi in Tehran has said that the Kurds should totally cancel referendum & independence and comply with country's constitution.

The demand of H. Al-Ebadi has put Barzani in a very difficult position with only two limited options as follows.

Option A- Barzani  accepts Ebadi's demand & fully retreat. By this move, Barzani will commit political suicide and will ruin its reputation among all Kurds.

Option B: Barzani rejects Ebadi's demand & continues with his demand for Kurdistan. By choosing this move, Kurdistan will face a total war from every angles.

The whole this event is similar to some part of Peloponnesian War of Thucydides. ",,,, Obey our demand or face a devastating defeat,,,,," or in Qasem Soleimani's words to PUK leadership:

“Withdraw or risk losing Tehran as a strategic ally. Abadi has all the regional powers and the West behind him and nothing will stop him from forcing you to return back to the mountains if he decides so,”. 


Note: The chance that Barzani will remain in Iraq is very low. Iran & Iraqi GOV will not let him to have a pleasant future In Iraq. He might flee to Israel or one of the western countries for the rest of his life. Wrong move at wrong time at wrong place. 


M. Sirani                            26.10.2017 

The Primary Goals of Iran & Iraqi Gov in Kurdistan.

Briefly: By a single miscalculated move, Barzani destroyed what the Kurds had achieved throughout some decades struggle. There is some probability that Barzani would flee to either Israel or one of the western countries. Iran & Iraqi Gov would no let him to have a pleasant future in Iraq. 

It seems Iraqi Gov & Iran are currently pursuing three goals in Iraqi Kurdistan. These goals are:

A- Removing Barzani from the power & replacing him with a trustworthy person. In this respect, Talibani's son has a good chance.

B- Paralyzing economic Independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi Gov & Iran would try to recapture the control of all oil & gas fields in Kurdistan & put an end to couple of years dispute between Iraqi central government and Kurdish authority.

C- Recapturing the border lines between Iraqi Kurdistan & Syria- Turkey in order to:  A- impose an idea that Iraqi Kurdistan is located within Iraq; it is an inseparable part of Iraq territory & B- Have full control about import & export to & from Kurdistan.

This policy would be applied to Kurdistan area in Syria as well; maybe not now, but it will be. In this respect, the four states of Iran, Iraq, Syria & Turkey would coordinate & cooperate with each other perfectly.

Note: The U.S. plan that Syrian Kurds would capture oil field in Syria; using its income; consequently weakening Assad's regime; etc etc, will hit the wall.

As i have repeatedly said this before: The U.S. plan to create a semi-federalism political system in Syria (Kurds in North, Shiite people in the Middle along with Assad's supporters & Sunnis in the South/ Weakening Assad's regime/ Creating safe/buffer-zone in the South of Syria for Israel, etc etc-  Kissinger's proposal) does not work in Syria based on many reasons. In addition, Iran would not allow such a plan would be implemented.



M. Sirani              26.10.2017

Warning: The U.S. Republican Party Is In A Very Critical Position.

Briefly:

I was among those few people, who predicted a Republican would be the president (in 2014-2015) and anticipated that D. Trump would become the president (2016) (Various short notes in this blog confirm my statement in this regard).

Based on what i have observed about Trump administration, the policies and the attitude of president Trump himself in the past 10 months, i can argue that the Republican Party is in a very critical position and is left with two options as follows.

A- Following Trump administration's statements & policies with closed eyes without any objection: In this way, the Republican Party would ruin its reputation and would damage the USA in different terms.

B- Standing up against wrong policies & statements of president Trump & his administration: By choosing this option, the Republican Party might be able to save the USA & the Republican Party in different terms.


Note: The biggest problem of president Trump: This is a fact that D. Trump is not an expert in many issues for example International Relations or Micro-Macroeconomics like many other presidents or prime ministers around the world. I don't blame him in this regard. He is expert in another area, which i'm not. The point is that most of the leaders around the world pay attention to their advisers in many areas. But president Trump not. He wants to run the united State & the rest of the world in a way that he was running his business empire. This is a very dangerous trend. This issue would highly likely cause a huge problem at domestic as well as foreign affairs not only for the USA and American people but also for the rest of the world. Due to the fact that the USA is a super power and every move of the USA would impact the remote areas around the world.

President Trump should understand this basic fact: Running a state and running a business empire have many similarities; at the same time there are huge differences between these two concepts. A single mistake in this regard would be catastrophic for many.  I have posted the following note multiple times for President Trump on Twitter:
"Running a state is not like running a business empire. They have some similarities. But they have huge differences). 




M. Sirani         24.10.2017