Briefly:
Kurdish authority has told Iraqi GOV that it is freezing the referendum & independence movement & is ready to negotiate with Baghdad. In response to this call, H. Al- Ebadi in Tehran has said that the Kurds should totally cancel referendum & independence and comply with country's constitution.
The demand of H. Al-Ebadi has put Barzani in a very difficult position with only two limited options as follows.
Option A- Barzani accepts Ebadi's demand & fully retreat. By this move, Barzani will commit political suicide and will ruin its reputation among all Kurds.
Option B: Barzani rejects Ebadi's demand & continues with his demand for Kurdistan. By choosing this move, Kurdistan will face a total war from every angles.
The whole this event is similar to some part of Peloponnesian War of Thucydides. ",,,, Obey our demand or face a devastating defeat,,,,," or in Qasem Soleimani's words to PUK leadership:
“Withdraw or risk losing Tehran as a strategic ally. Abadi has all the regional powers and the West behind him and nothing will stop him from forcing you to return back to the mountains if he decides so,”.
Note: The chance that Barzani will remain in Iraq is very low. Iran & Iraqi GOV will not let him to have a pleasant future In Iraq. He might flee to Israel or one of the western countries for the rest of his life. Wrong move at wrong time at wrong place.
M. Sirani 26.10.2017
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