Briefly:
As the president of the USA, Trump has the legitimate & legal authority to withdraw from NATO. Would Trump do that or not, depends on many issues & factors. This is a fact that without a powerful military wing, no super power or a powerful state has been able to either conquer the world or impose its hegemony on most parts of the world. There is no such an example in the entire history. So is the case of the USA under the presidency of Trump. In order to implement and impose his doctrine on most parts of the world, Trump needs a strong army. Would this desirable army be only NATO? For Trump the answer to this question is highly likely no. For Trump, the ends justify the means in an extremely Machiavellian Manner. We should bear in mind that for Trump, the EU & China are the serious threats and strong barrier, not Russia. When it comes to economic expansion, both China & the EU are trying to surpass the USA.
When it comes to military power, China is rising and some EU states are nuclear armed states. In comparison with China & the EU, Russia cannot pose a serious threat for Trump at this stage. Russia is a nuclear armed state and has powerful military apparatus. But, when it comes to economic power & economic expansion, Russia is not a serious threat for the USA and the way that Trump thinks. On the contrary, Russia has fast amount of natural resources, gas and oil, and is one of the main providers of these resources for China & the EU, two main barriers for Trump & his doctrine.
In my opinion, this is the main foundation of Trump's doctrine: Curbing, countering and controlling China & the EU. One of the main tools in order to achieve such a hegemonic position, is Russia. If Trump would be able to be allied with Russia, Trump can easily impose U.S. hegemony on China & the EU and accordingly preserve the U.S. hegemony at global level. In this respect, Trump would also try to use the UK. In addition, a close relationship with Russia at the level of my hypothetical scenario, would give Trump a strong hand with regards to fully curbing & countering Iran in the Middle East. Such an event, would collect enormous support for Trump from various directions from Israel and oil-rich Arab States.
To put it simply, i can say Trump will undoubtedly withdraw from NATO, if he would be able to make a good, certain & comprehensive deal with Putin & Russia. Should this happen, Trump would obtain the main sources of energy around the world (USA, Russia & Arab States), and by this tool, Trump can impose the U.S. hegemony on most parts of the world mainly China & the EU; two tough economic competitors. We should also bear in mind that in this regard, Trump would not be alone. There are many right wings political powers in the entire EU. Some of these states are currently member of NATO. In case of my hypothetical scenario, many of these states will undoubtedly join Trump army in a completely new military framework. A type of hijacking NATO.
Whether, Putin & Russia agree with this plan and follow Trump or not depends on many factor, beyond the scope of this brief explanation. The only thing that i can say is that there are many historical potentialities &possibilities for Putin & Russia at the present time, whether we like it or not.
M. Sirani 12.07.2018
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