Shell Versus The Niger Delta! (Future Consequences).

Unbelievable News:

Despite all strong evidences, The Hague Civil Court rejected all cases against the Netherlands-based company, Shell. The Court repeated Shell's statements and ruled that sabotage and oil theft have been the main causes of the oil spils in the Niger Delta, not the poor maintenance of Shell's facilities in the area.

From this brief news, we can assume that simply and apparently Shell won the case. But, there are some other issues, which all of us including Shell's strategic advisors should carefully consider and that is the future consequences of today's event. Let us simply put some pieces together to find what type of final puzzle we would get in the future as the consequences of this event.

Piece Number 1: The people in this area live under poverty line.

Piece Number 2: The whole life of this people in the Niger Delta is based on fishing & agriculture, which have been extremely damaged, due to this disaster, whether by sabotage, oil theft, poor maintenance of Shell's facilities or any other reasons what so ever. The point is that this people are extremely vulnerable at this particualr and important time. I emphasize the important time, due to the circumstances in North Africa.

Piece Number 3: 50% of  Nigeria's population are Muslims.

Piece Number 4: The activities of different Islamic Fundamentalist groups have been increasing recently in various parts of North Africa. 

Piece Number 5: Up until today, the vast majority of people in the Niger Delta have been suffering too much mostly just because of poverty, but not too much because of injustice; although in reality poverty is the result of injustice, as we know. But, the result of today's Court clearly showed them somethings more than poverty. In other words, today, this people deeply felt, exprienced and understood the meaning of poverty and moreover, the sense of injustice, ignorance and exclusion more than before. 

Piece Number 6: I`m pretty sure that different rebel groups and some of the Islamic Fundamentalist groups in North Africa will focus on the people in this area in the near future, because they have become more vulnerable, desperate and furious; so they are easy prey to be recruited. 

I don`t have the time to prolong the rest of the story anymore. However, if you as the reader of this short article are interested to know what would be the consequences of today's Court, you can put these 6 pieces together. Then, you will be able to imagine a clear picture about the consequences of this event in the near future.

To be honest, sometimes, some news are shocking me. I mean the strategic advisors of Shell, or the Judiciary system or moreover the Dutch Authority do not understand the special circumstances, we are facing at the present time? Do they have any idea that with this event they have facilitated better opportunity for the Islamic terrorists as well as rebel groups in this part of the world? Do they have any idea that with this dicision they are intentionally or unintentionally pushing the people in this area towards more sabotage and ilegal activity? 

Today, the Dutch Authority and Shell could solve the problem and avoid the disasterous consequences in the future by spending just some couple of millions of dollars. But, as it seems, they have no idea about tactic, strategy, short term, long term interest, consequences, timing, etc. (30.01.2013).           

Argentine-Iran Recent Agreement! (Amia Blast)

On July 18, 1994, a car bomb explosion in front of the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires resulted in death of 85 and injured hundreds innocent people. Following this barbaric event and after some years investigation, finally on October 25, 2006, Argentine procecuters officialy accused the Islamic Regime and one of its proxies i.e. Hezbollah as the mastermind actors behind the blast. However, yesterday, after almost 19 years, the two authorities of Argentine and the Islamic Regime signed an agreement to set up a commission to investigate the event. It is worth noting that the commission would consist of five independent judges, which are neither from Argentina nor Iran. The establishment of this commission has shocked many including the Israelis. It is christal clear that the result of this agreement would be nothing, except wasting money, time, energy and an useless propaganda. This commission would not be able to bring those terrorists, who planned and carried out this terrible event to justice; simply, because the Islamic Regime`s high ranking officials are the real master minders of this barbaric event. The establishment of this commission is just a pure tactical political move and to some extent beneficial for both parties i.e. Argentine & Iran.
Through the establishment of this comission, Iran would try to protect, maintain and further empower its influence in Latin American countries including Argentine.
Argentine looks at this event based on the old phrase of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend". We know that Argentine is still suffering about Malvinas dispute. The country desperately tries to find a solution for Falkland Island. The establishment of this mutual commission with the Islamic Regime could be unrderstood as a political and tactical tool for Argentine in this direction, and nothing more. (29.01.2013)   

Explosion at Fordo Nuclear Facility!?

The recent blast in Fordo facility raises some questions including:

1- Did this blast really happen?
2- Did this blast happen at 19th or 26th January?
3- What was the main cause of the blast?
4- Did this blast happen due to an accident?
5- Did this blast happen due to a clandestine or covert action from somewhere against this facility?

According to RSOE Map, the blast has occured on 26.01.2013 at 05:04:09. The probability that this blast happened due to a clandestine or covert action is very low. If it was so, we would have experienced for sure some type of retaliation against the West in some area e.g. Iraq,Afghanistan, Bahrain, Yaman, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc. There is one serious question left; whether this event happened accidently or not. We should bear in mind that the Islamic Regime never ever put all its eggs in one basket. Moreover, as far as we know, Fordo facility locates almost 60 to 90 meters under ground. This issue simply shows that Iran has built this facility deep under ground, in order to maximize the security and surveillance of this nuclear plant as much as it can. From this, we can deduce that the Islamic Regime should be more careful and cautious about this particular facility, much more than any other nuclear facilities in Iran. To be more clear, if this blast happened accidently in Bushehr or Natanz plants, it was more acceptable for me. Based on this simple calculation, we are facing some other questions:
6- Did Iran carry out an extraordinary test, which it could n`t control the consequences?
7- Or is it a new game to delay the nuclear negotiation in the future?


Reference:
RSOE (2013). URL: <http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php>. Accessed at: 28.01.2013.

To Those Iran's Experts

To Those Iran's Experts:

In order to have an appropriate and more reliable analysis about the future actions of the Islamic Regime, you should have a proper set of knowledge about 1- the structure of power within this political system, 2- Shia baranch of Islam and 3- The mentality and culture of Iranian people. The combination of these three elemnts make you able to have an accurate analysis. Otherwise, you are faceing with some serious issues including: Mirror Imaging, Analytical Error, Cassandra Complex and .......................... 

If you don`t have these qualifications,  Please don`t apply for such huge responsibility. Because, your miscalculation would bring the lives of millions of people (in and out of Iran) at devastating risk. Whether you or your authority like it or not, you should remember, we have arrived at this dangerous no-turning point, because of miscalculation of you or someone like you. 34 years time is too much for an analysis. 

Ahmadinejad has approved an amount of $ 4 million dollars as gift to three African countries

 Today, Ahmadinejad has approved an amount of $ 4 million dollars as gift to three African countries. The name of these countries, or institutions or individuals, which will get this money are still unknwon. Are you following,,,,,

21.01.2013

About Mali:

Your method for defeating the Jihadists is totally wrong and you will never win this battle. You can defeat the Islamists Jihadists in Mali physically by using technological and modern military equipments, but the ideological mentality of the terrorists would remain and spread to somewhere else. You are just changing the battlefield geographically and nothing more. This is a simple lesson, which, we should have learned from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The experience of last decade has clearly shown that the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative does not work. We should find a fundamental solution for the ideology & mindset of terrorist.

M. Sirani                                                                                    15.01.2013