I think the most important issue at this stage is a strict system of unannounced inspection and supervision amid Iran's nuclear activity. Such an additional protocol, which would allow IAEA to have comprehensive surveillance over Iran's nuclear activity, should be part of any agreement between Iran and P5+1 group at this stage. Without such a comprehensive control, any agreement about some issues such as heavy water reactor in Arak, 3.5 % , 5% or even 20% enriching uranium would be worthless; just a piece of paper without any legal, reliable and real value. The international community will regret in less than one year, if Iran would not sign such an additional protocol at least at this stage.
If Iran would manage to obtain nuclear warhead, the international community should close its eyes to every event, which would occur in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Instead, the whole world should focus on the second phase of Iran's expansion. The second phase would forcefully begin step by step from Bahrain, Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Sudan and consequently would spread to the rest of Africa. These events could also be understood as the beginning of unlimited arms race and increasing numbers of interstate war in the Middle East and Africa for many years to come.
Different evidences, however, indicate that Iran is following the two paths and methods of North Korea and Israel, parallel to each other with regards to its nuclear activity. In this respect the two examples of Fordo underground nuclear plant and Heavy water reactor in Arak could be mentioned. My anticipation is that at this stage, Iran might gives up one of these two types of nuclear projects in order to get rid of some of the sanctions, but the chance that Iran gives up both these two types of nuclear projects simultaneously is very low or i might say almost impossible. In sum, it seems, the genie is gradually going out of the bottle. However, At the present, the international community has just three limited options and nothing more. These options are as follows.
1- Accepting a nuclear-armed Iran. (The international community cannot accept this option based on many reasons).
2- Launching military strike on Iran's nuclear plants. (In addition to enormous collateral and environmental damages, the military strike can cause temporary delay in Iran's nuclear activity, but it cannot completely stop it).
3- Supporting the third wave of Iranian opposition, those, who want to overthrow the entire Islamic Regime and establish a real democratic and secular political system in Iran. (By third wave of Iranian opposition, I don't mean those Iranians that you have supported during the past 34 years; I don't mean those Iranians that you have promoted in your ministries or institutions during the past 34 years. Because you have reached at this critical point with regard to Iran's nuclear activity mostly based on wrong analyses (intentionally or unintentionally) of these types of Iranians).
If we analyze these three options from different angles (security, economic, political, social, cultural, environmental), we will see that the third option is the best one. By implementing this option, the international community would be able to put an end to Iran's nuclear ambition. This is the only reliable option.
I don't believe to miracle, but please leave a comment for me, if you think there is a fourth option in this regard.
M. Sirani 08.11.2013
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