Sunday, March 12, 2017

Just A Reminder: Some of My Earlier Predictions About Weak or Wrong Polices of Obama Administration-EU With Regard to Turkey.

Briefly:

Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.


Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
 And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part. 

What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:

A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China

B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.

C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.

D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.

E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO. 

F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries. 

G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.  

And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.

*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.  

Honestly: The kindergarten policies of Obama administration, some previous U.S. administrations and some EU countries are the main causes of such a big development.


M. Sirani                 20.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous short notes in this regard. I repeat my statement again: Considering the chaotic & kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration, some EU countries and new developments in the region, Turkey should be naive, if it would give up Cyprus at the present time without taking SOME FAT ADVANTAGE/S FROM THE EU & USA.


M. Sirani               09.01.2017




Turkey is Proposing To Trade With Iran, Russia And China With Domestic Currencies (What Did I Predict?).




Briefly:

I don't want to go through my previous short notes dated couple of months or years ago in this regard. I just re-upload some of my short notes- predictions since last week. Once again, i repeat my warning: If the USA and the EU would not solve their differences with Turkey in a diplomatic, logical and reasonable manner, there is high probability that Turkey would join the Shanghai Treaty or totally bandwagon to China-Russia somewhere in the near future. Such a move would change the balance of power profoundly. Needless to explore the winners & losers of such a move and its consequences in different terms.



M. Sirani                          04.12.2016 


Here below are some of my previous warnings in this regard.

1- Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means 


Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.
2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.
3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.
4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (President Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).


Note: Whether we like it or not, President Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 


M. Sirani                24.11.2016

2- The Unknown Future of Turkey Following the Collapse of the EU. 

Briefly:

The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.

Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.


Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries has caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.  
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).  



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016  



3- Warning: President R. Erdogan Urges the Turkish People to Exchange Their Dollars & Euros to Domestic Currency. 


Briefly:

This is not a simple statement, nor is a good sign for the USA & the EU. Such a move means, Turkey is preparing itself to be able to cope with some possible events in the near future.

Note: Special thanks to the wrong, weak and kindergarten foreign policy of Obama administration and some EU countries.



M. Sirani                       04.12.2016



M. Sirani                 01.12.2016