Warning: Highly Likely A Devastating Endemic is Ahead of Us. Design & Develop A Comprehensive Preparedness & Contingency Plan in Advance For the Next Coming Years & Possibly Decade to Come.

 

Here below is my primary evaluation with regards to the current Covid-19 pandemic and the serious threat of a devastating Endemic, which is highly likely ahead of us.

Based on some factors such as:

A- Rapid Mutation of Covid-19: This is a scientifically proven fact that all viruses mutate. So is the case of Covid-19 virus. But different evidences indicate a fact that Covid-19 mutates faster than some other viruses. According to the research of two Chinese Scientists (Published on the beginning of 2020), Covid-19 virus had more than 30 mutations in the bodies of 11 Chinese patients in less than a few weeks (Around 2-3 months).

 

B- High Speed of Spreading & High Level of Adaptability of Covid-19 virus to New Environment and New Host:

Up until the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, generally speaking, Covid-19 viruses were found mostly in the bodies of only bats. As we have observed in the past nearly 1.5 year, Covid-19 virus has expanded its territory and can be found not only in the bodies of humans but also other animals such as apps, lions, dogs, cats, etc. This brief explanation simply indicates a fact that when it comes to its hosts and vectors, Covid-19 has had an extraordinary expansion. So far, I haven’t seen or heard any news regarding the existence of Covid-19 in the bodies of some Maritime Species. If Covid-19 would be able to enter that area and would be able to survive in that environment, the entire world would face a devastating & irreversible catastrophe for decades or maybe for centuries to come. This is a serious matter, which should not be ignored nor underestimated, in my opinion.  

 

C- Limited Duration of Vaccine Immunity: As far as I know, most of the vaccines against Covid-19 can provide immunity for humans for nearly 6 months. We should also bear in mind that the chance that any pharmacological company would be able to develop a permanent vaccine against this virus and its variants in the next coming months, years or even decade is very low. Considering these factors, rapid mutations of this virus and some resistible examples such as South Africa & UK Variants of this virus, we can come to the factual conclusion that current Covid-19 vaccines would not be able to deal with this virus and its mutated cousins in an effective & proper manner in the next coming months & years and this virus has come to stay with us for a long period of time.

 

D- Negligence in Vaccination: Based on many reasons such as the lack of trust to science or governmental institutions or negligence, some people might escape the vaccination or ignore the necessary second shot of their vaccines. All these cases are dangerous specially the latest one. Injecting the first shot but ignoring the second - complementary shot along with rapid mutation characteristic of this virus, would make Covid-19 stronger, more powerful and resistible with regards to many vaccines.

 

Based on what briefly explored above, I strongly believe that we are passing through Pandemic Phase and are going to enter the devastating phase of “Endemic”, when it comes to Covid-19 virus. In this respect, I strongly suggest that all the states would develop and design a comprehensive Preparedness & Contingency plan for the next coming years and beyond in dealing with this virus and its overall negative consequences in every possible term.

 

M. Sirani               27.04.2021      

    

 

Some of My Predictions, Which Have Come True So Far (Between 2012-2020):

 Here below are some of my previous analyses and predictions regarding different events, conflicts and subjects related to various parts of the world since 2012 till 2020. Before starting to read the following 5 pages, I should remind the reader with the followings:

1- Generally speaking, two types of writings have been uploaded on my (Ice Aged) blog. A- Some of my academic essays: Among them A- The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (BS Thesis-Published on TRAC website), B- Iran Should Not Get the Nuclear Bomb (This essay criticizes Kenneth. Waltz’s Defensive Realism by using and focusing the Expansionist Foreign Policy of the Iranian Regime) and C- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (This essay explores the overall power and activities of IRGC at home and abroad), could be mentioned. B- IMPROMPTU Brief Analyses, Predictive Forecasts, Risk Management related Issues & alike at the framework of sometimes one page, one paragraph, a short note or a single line without even any editing process.

2- As you would visit my blog, you would notice that I haven’t written and uploaded more writing to it since 2020-2021. This simply does not mean my knowledge has hit the rock bottom or there is nothing in the world that I could write something about it. Not at all. The main reason behind this matter is only one thing and that is my concern. My concern in this regard is the notion that my predictions, which most of them have come true SO FAR & will come true somewhere in the future, are only the products of my mindset and brain and no one else. By publishing them openly and publicly, some wrong state/s or non-state actor/s might take advantage from them and use them against any other state or non-state actor in an unfair, unjust, illegitimate, illegal, immoral and unethical manner; that’s the way I’m thinking. For this reason, I have imposed self-sensor on myself since 2020-21 and do not update my blog anymore the way I did in the past. Otherwise, our current chaotic world has numerous important subjects and events to write or talk about them in every possible term.

Here below are some of my brief analyses and predictions with regards to many events in various parts of the world since 2012 till 2020, which almost all of them have come true SO FAR.  

1- Building aircraft Carrier, A pretext for Iran to enrich uranium above 60% (Predicted on 22.03.2014 – Iran has recently started with 60% enriching uranium). Further Prediction: Under the pretext of Medical Research, Iran would use 60% enriched uranium for its submarine and navy ships and thereafter would pave the way towards 90% enrichment for nuclear weapon.

 Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-latest-claim-about-irans-aircraft.html

 

2-The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican (Predicted on 07 October, 2014).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-next-president-of-usa.html

 

3- Iran would seize the power in Yemen (Predicted on 03 September 2012).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2014/11/iran-should-not-get-nuclear-bomb.html

 

4- Iran would seize the power in Yemen (Predicted on 03 June, 2012- Persian Language article.

Link: http://www.iran-chabar.de/article.jsp?essayId=46402

The map above belonged to an Essay Entitled: “Iran Should Not Get the Nuclear Bomb” (M. Sirani-2012).

Should be added that through multiple short notes, in the beginning of 2015, I predicted that Saudi-led coalition would lose the battle in Yemen and in a very optimistic way of thinking Yemen would be divided into two or three pieces mainly between Iran, Saudi Arabia & UAE (Uploaded on my blog & posted on Twitter).  

5- Ukraine: Signing Free Trade with the EU (NATO PACT AS WELL), Might Lead to the

Division of Ukraine into Two Pieces (Predicted on 27 April, 2015). I warned about Crimea annexation somewhere in my blog and Twitter too.

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/04/ukraines-signing-free-trade-with-eu.html

Should this happen, Russia will annex some parts of Ukraine and connect Crimea to the land, the way I have described in the map below.

Note: I hope my prediction in this matter does not come true; because the negative consequences would be devastating for different actors particularly for the Ukrainian people.

M. Sirani                                          27.04.2015

6- Hillary Clinton Does Not Have Too Much Chance (In U.S. 2016 Election. Predicted on 12 April, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/04/hillary-clinton-does-not-have-too-much.html

 

7- Improving Cuba & USA Relationship; The Whole World Should Cross The Finger loool

(Predicted on 11 April, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/04/improving-usa-cuba-relationship-is-only.html

8- The Shadow of Imminent Long Period Terror All Over The Europe (Predicted on 26 June, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-shadow-of-long-period-terror-all.html

9- Influx of Refugees and Migrants Towards USA & the EU (Predicted on 08 June, 2015).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-developed-countries-should-be.html

10- Trump: Warning for the USA & The Rest of the World. Trump Has Started With His “Invisible Coup”. Not Only Democrats, but Also Republicans Will Regret; when it’s too late (Predicted on May 2, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/05/warning-for-usa-rest-of-world-trump-has.html

11- Follow Trump Foreign Policy; All Would Be Beneficial Somehow for Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia & UAE at the End of the Road (Predicted on 01 May, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/05/follow-trump-foreign-policies-all-his.html

12- Turkey: Just Watch & See How Trump Directly & Indirectly Pushes Turkey Further in the Arms of Russia & By This Creates Chaos for NATO & the EU (Predicted on 01 May, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/05/turkey-just-watch-see-how-trump.html

13- Iran: Warning: A Plan of War or Military Strike Against Iran is on the Table (Predicted on 10 February, 2019).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2019/02/warningthe-plan-of-war-or-some-type-of.html

14- Trump: For the Record: Trump is One-Term President (Predicted on 04 January, 2020).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2020/01/for-record-trump-is-one-term-us.html

15- The USA: The Emergence and Rise of Secessionist, Ultra-Chauvinist and Right-Wing Groups in the USA and Accordingly the Eruption of Some Types of Armed Clashes and Highly Likely Civil War in Some States in the USA (Briefly: My Hypothesis About the Emergence of a New World System etc. Predicted on 16 November, 2018).

Link: https://irancare.blogspot.com/2018/11/my-prediction-about-world-system-in.html  

 

16- The Victory of Trump in 2016 Election: Since January 2016 till final days of October, 2016, I repeatedly predicted Trump would win the election against all odds and polls. I published my predictions in this regard on Twitter.

17- The Emergence of A Global Economic Crisis somewhere at the end of 2019 or max in the beginning of 2020: I repeatedly warned IMF, WB, UN Secretary General, etc about this matter on Twitter, somewhere in 2017 and thereafter repeatedly in 2018-2019. My argument in this regard was based on the combination of some factors such as: A- Stagnation and slow movement in housing market & real estate, B- Trump’s isolationism attitude, his wrong & counterproductive economic policy to create balance of trade (IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD; WHEREIN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ARE INTERRELATED, INTERWOVEN & INTERCONNECTED BETWEEN MULTIPLE ACTORS) & overall negative consequences of these wrong policies at national, regional and global level,

C- Hyperactivities (Mostly orchestrated & artificial) around cryptocurrencies, D- Low inflation, in some cases zero-inflation and deflation, E- An increase in Unemployment rates, F- Stagnated and low price of fossil energy (oil & gas), while some exporters such as Iraq, Libya, Nigeria experienced some type of instability, uncertainty, decrease in production; while a country like Iran couldn’t export its oil & gas freely due to some sanctions imposed by the USA; while in the various parts of the Middle East, the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea (Close to Syria), Iran, Israel and some Arab States (SA, UAE, possibly backed by Trump administration), hit the oil tankers of each other; while Houthis in Yemen backed by Iran targeted some oil facilities inside Saudi Arabia by their missiles or drones,, etc,

G- Huge amount of global debt & corporate debt in comparison with global GDP (Just in 2019 were: Global GDP= Something around $90 trillion dollars, Global Debt= Were double something around $180 trillion dollars), H- Executing Quantitative Easing by some highly developed countries, I- Large number of conflicts in various parts of the world, J- Brexit and its overall chaos, uncertainty, instability, K- Influx of refugees & migrants from Africa & South America towards the USA & the EU,  etc, etc etc. Based on this brief explanation, I predicted we would face a global economic crisis somewhere at the end of 2019 or in the beginning of 2020. This pandemic triggered the crisis.

A simple fair question for the reader of this article:

Have you seen or heard a single person in the entire world alone has predicted some or all i have mentioned above? ( Personally, i haven't seen anyone. But i will be glad to meet or be familiar with my extraordinary twin in this regard). 

M. Sirani                          27.04.2021