Monday, April 27, 2015

Ukraine's Signing Free Trade With EU Simply Means Dividing Ukraine into Two Pieces.

Briefly: I have warned about this event (Dividing Ukraine) in some of my previous short notes as well.

As the media reveal, Ukraine has signed the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU today. Regardless of this deal would be beneficial for the majority of Ukrainian people or not, this agreement would be inevitably accompanied with some unpleasant consequences at three domestic, regional and global levels each from different angles and scales as follows.

1- At domestic level: Since the beginning of the civil war, the majority of ethnic Russian rebels have been trying to achieve more rights and a type of semi- autonomy system within Ukraine under the central command of authority in Kiev. Moreover, the ethnic Russian rebels were / are totally against the idea that Ukraine would become a member of the EU and NATO based on many reasons, which exploring them is beyond the scope of this short note. Based on these issues, the Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the EU would be identified by ethnic Russian rebels as an unpleasant event; an event, which would threaten the social, cultural, economic and political interests of the ethnic Russians in short as well as long terms within Ukraine. As such, the deal would undoubtedly intensify the level of tension in Ukraine in the sense that the deal would force the ethnic Russian rebels to pursue a completely secession from Ukraine; the establishment of a new and separate state in the eastern parts of Ukraine.

2- At regional and global level: Ukraine's FTA with the EU would be identified by policy makers in Kremlin as an act of Western progressive aggression near to its borders; an act of aggression, which would threaten the interests of Russia in different terms including geopolitical aspect. This event would intensify the level of the tension between Russia and the Western countries in various forms and terms. As such, there is high probability that Russia not only would increase the level of its support and assistance to the ethnic Russian rebels in different terms, but also it would try to connect the Crimea to the mainland through Luhansk province by the help and assistance of the Russian Rebels. To put its simply, there is high probability that Ukraine would be divided into two separate states, as the map below illustrates. Should this happen, Russia would probably replace some of its nuclear weapons in the Crimea as a deterrence factor in order to 1- have more control in the Black Sea and Azov Sea and 2- prevent the further progress and aggression of the Western countries in both Black and Azov Seas.                    

Important: The Western countries should bear in mind that Russia might unilaterally leave the New START Treaty, if the tension in Ukraine will intensify due to the miscalculation and adventurous behavior of some policy makers in the West.


Note: I hope my prediction in this matter does not come true; because the negative consequences would be devastating for different actors particularly for the Ukrainian people.
The EU should not exchange its long term security and stability with a greedy short term benefit in Ukraine.

M. Sirani                                          27.04.2015