There are a few lengthy academic essays in this blog. Among them A- The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Published on TERRORISM RESEARCH & ANALYSIS CONSORTIUM WEBSITE (TRAC), B- Iran Should not Get the Nuclear Bomb (Criticizes K. Waltz's Defensive Realism and Touches FP of Iran in the ME) & C- IRGC could be mentioned (NMBU-2008-2013).The rest are short impromptu analyses and predictive forecasts without any editing. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Grexit From the EU Might End UP to Grexit From NATO Somewhere in the Future.
Briefly:
Those genius decision makers in Troika should not underestimate Greece. The negative consequences of Grexit will badly shake the Western countries in different terms including in security and military arenas. There is some possibility as follows.
When the European Union particularly the Troika don't consider the difficult situation of Greek People and Greece and kick the country out of the Union, why on earth would, for example, Greece stay in NATO and spend 2.5 % of its GDP at this difficult period in a huge costly organization like NATO?
Greece should cut its unnecessary expenses in order to survive the current difficult situation. As such, the country should find another way to earn some money. Greece has good geopolitical position with regards to Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, which are attractive for some other countries such as Russia and China. Greece can easily allow Russian or Chinese naval forces use these areas and earn some amount of money by this move. It would be a perfect opportunity for Russia, for example, to have a new naval base in Greece in addition to Tartus in Syria. In short, Grexit and its negative consequences will damage the Western countries in different terms. In other words, Grexit will probably shatter the EU, Euro Zone and also NATO.
M. Sirani 30.06.2015
Those genius decision makers in Troika should not underestimate Greece. The negative consequences of Grexit will badly shake the Western countries in different terms including in security and military arenas. There is some possibility as follows.
When the European Union particularly the Troika don't consider the difficult situation of Greek People and Greece and kick the country out of the Union, why on earth would, for example, Greece stay in NATO and spend 2.5 % of its GDP at this difficult period in a huge costly organization like NATO?
Greece should cut its unnecessary expenses in order to survive the current difficult situation. As such, the country should find another way to earn some money. Greece has good geopolitical position with regards to Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, which are attractive for some other countries such as Russia and China. Greece can easily allow Russian or Chinese naval forces use these areas and earn some amount of money by this move. It would be a perfect opportunity for Russia, for example, to have a new naval base in Greece in addition to Tartus in Syria. In short, Grexit and its negative consequences will damage the Western countries in different terms. In other words, Grexit will probably shatter the EU, Euro Zone and also NATO.
M. Sirani 30.06.2015
Friday, June 26, 2015
27 Innocent People, Mostly Foreign Tourists, Killed in Tunisia Following A Terrorist Attack.
As long as most of the Western politicians and those so-called "genius pundits" are in the hibernation mode with regards to the serious threat of Islamic Fundamentalism, we will be surprised by Islamic terrorists in various terms and forms. Here below is one of my previous brief notes about the unstable condition of Tunisia.
M. Sirani 26.06.2015
Those pundits and politicians, who following the latest election in Tunisia predicted that the country is smoothly on the path of democracy and secularism, should reevaluate their prediction in this matter. As i have mentioned in my earlier posts, there is an ongoing Islamic volcano beneath the Tunisian society, which should neither be underestimated nor ignored. Today's terrorist attack shows how critical the situation in Tunisia is and what type of danger is mostly threatening the peace and stability in this country at the present as well as in the future.
Note: Needless to explore the Geo-strategic position of Tunisia and its neighboring position with a chaotic and failed-state such as Libya in this matter.
M. Sirani 18.03.2015
M. Sirani 26.06.2015
Reevaluate Your Analysis About Tunisia; There is An Islamic Volcano beneath the Tunisian Society.
Those pundits and politicians, who following the latest election in Tunisia predicted that the country is smoothly on the path of democracy and secularism, should reevaluate their prediction in this matter. As i have mentioned in my earlier posts, there is an ongoing Islamic volcano beneath the Tunisian society, which should neither be underestimated nor ignored. Today's terrorist attack shows how critical the situation in Tunisia is and what type of danger is mostly threatening the peace and stability in this country at the present as well as in the future.
Note: Needless to explore the Geo-strategic position of Tunisia and its neighboring position with a chaotic and failed-state such as Libya in this matter.
M. Sirani 18.03.2015
The Shadow of Imminent Long Period Terror All Over the Europe.
You Ignored What I had Warned You Two Years Ago.
Here below is part of my essay entitled: An assessment about the current civil war in Syria. This essay was written on August, 2013. Some viewers might be interested to go through some of my predictions in that time about the consequences of the Syrian civil war; some predictions that we are dealing with them currently in Iraq, Syria itself, Lebanon and lone wolf attacks in the western countries, etc. The Flux of migrants has facilitated the best way for ISIS and other terrorist groups to deploy their agents into the EU.M. Sirani 26.06.2015
7- Some Consequences of the Syrian Civil War:
Whether we are supporting Bashar Assad or its opponents or are neutral, we should pay attention to some of the consequences of the Syrian civil war. Analyzing these consequences is very important, because some of them might occur beyond the Syrian geographical territory within the country that we live in. Some of these consequences are briefly as follows.
1- The first and important issue is the large number of human casualties and near-total destruction of the country’s infrastructure. We should not be genius to anticipate that this issue would be devastating for Syria, the Syrian people and the neighboring countries for some decades to come.
2- The second issue is about the overall effect of the civil war on the life of the Syrian people. This issue has caused that more than 1.6 million people have fled Syria and taken refuge abroad in some countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and some North African countries. We should bear in mind that we are talking about more than 500,000 Syrian refugees in a country such as Lebanon with a population size of 4.2 million, or nearly 500,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan with a population size of almost 6 million people, etc. The large numbers of the Syrian refugees are the huge burden on the shoulders of all these states, the international organizations as well as NGOs. In the long term, this issue would cause many problems in different arenas including security for all these countries. As an example, asylum seekers and refuges are the most vulnerable groups around the world; because, in most cases they don not have proper access to their basic needs and rights. As such, some members of this vulnerable group would become the easiest preys for different criminal organizations as well as Jihadist groups. This issue is also applicable for some of the Syrian refugees in the Middle East. Given the fact that most of these countries mentioned above do not have a powerful, stable and reliable political system and the Syrian civil war has entered in the new phase of a conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups, we can anticipate that the presence of large numbers of the Syrian refugees would threaten the peace, stability and security of some countries in the Middle East in the long term.
There is also another important issue with regard to the Syrian refugees. What these refugees would do, if Assad’s regime would manage to survive this civil war? Given the fact that some of these refugees, themselves or their relatives are fighting against Assad’s regime, would they dare to return to Syria in the future? Who / which powerful international entity would be able to provide and maintain their security in Syria under the rule of Bashar Assad? On the contrary, if Assad’s regime would collapse somewhere in the future, who, or which powerful entity would be able to provide and maintain security for those Shiite or Alawites people, who have supported Bashar Assad or neutrally have behaved during this conflict?
3- The overall presence of Hezbollah in this conflict and increasing numbers of conflict between the Shiite and Sunni groups in different countries in the region illustrate the fact that eventually, the Syrian civil war would spread to some other neighboring countries in the Middle East. In this respect, the two countries of Lebanon and Iraq are the most vulnerable states.
4- The Syrian civil war has facilitated the best environment in terms of training, access to different facilities such as money, weapon, and network building for all Jihadists around the world. This chaotic environment functions like an academic institute for all Islamic fundamentalists including novice Jihadists, who enter Syria legally or illegally from different borderlines. After a while, these novice Jihadists would be expert in different military tactics and strategic matters such as using different types of weapons - explosive materials, organizing, surviving in harsh and difficult circumstances, network building, etc. The important and tricky point is the time that these jihadists would decide to return to their countries of origin, whether is somewhere in the Middle East or the EU or some other countries around the world. In this respect, we can anticipate that each of these jihadists would function as an ambassador of terror and would be able to organize and establish a terror cell in his /her country of origin.
5- This is the fact that the Kurdish people has been one of the most marginalized and deprived groups in Syria. The Syrian Kurds live mostly in the northern part of Syria along the southern border of Turkey and partly the northern border of Iraq. During the chaotic atmosphere of the civil war, the Syrian Kurds might decide to establish an either autonomous or a Kurdish self-regulated region in the northern part of Syria. This issue would threaten the sovereignty of Syria, Turkey, and Iraq. As a result, it would create extra instability and tension in the region.
6- We should bear in mind that some of these consequences, inevitability, would also affect the Israeli–Palestinian peace process to some degree.
All mentioned above, indicates the fact that the consequences of the Syrian civil war from different angles and to some degrees would be devastating not just for the Syrian people or the country of Syria, but also for all of us, no matter whom we are or where we live.
Note: You "so-called smart guys", ignored what i had warned you nearly two years ago.
M. Sirani 08.01.2015
Note: You "so-called smart guys", ignored what i had warned you nearly two years ago.
M. Sirani 08.01.2015
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Iran's Guardian Council Approved the Bill Amid A Possible Nuclear Deal With 5+1.
Today, Iran's effective upper house of Parliament, the Guardian Council approved the bill amid the details of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and 5+1. The law is clearly describing Iran's red lines in a possible nuclear deal. Here below are the most important parts of the newly approved law.
According to the law:
1- All the sanctions should be removed the day that Iran and 5+1 are signed the deal.
2- Based on the charter approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the IAEA will be allowed to visit Iran's nuclear sites in an approved standard manner.
But, some issues such as accessing and visiting the military, security or sensitive non-nuclear sites or contacting Iran's nuclear scientists and pundits are out of the question and are absolutely forbidden.
3- Iran will not accept any limitation with regards to research and development of its nuclear program.
Note: You are free to make any deal with the Clero-Totalitarian Regime of Iran; but when it comes to a possible nuclear deal, never ever use some terms such as reliability, verification and transparency. Simply, because the whole world is laughing at your joke.
M. Sirani 24.06.2015
According to the law:
1- All the sanctions should be removed the day that Iran and 5+1 are signed the deal.
2- Based on the charter approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the IAEA will be allowed to visit Iran's nuclear sites in an approved standard manner.
But, some issues such as accessing and visiting the military, security or sensitive non-nuclear sites or contacting Iran's nuclear scientists and pundits are out of the question and are absolutely forbidden.
3- Iran will not accept any limitation with regards to research and development of its nuclear program.
Note: You are free to make any deal with the Clero-Totalitarian Regime of Iran; but when it comes to a possible nuclear deal, never ever use some terms such as reliability, verification and transparency. Simply, because the whole world is laughing at your joke.
M. Sirani 24.06.2015
Watch Khamenei's Speech and Wake Up From Your Dogmatic and Dreamful Slumber.
For watching the event, please visit the following link.
http://www.leader.ir/langs/fa/media.php?p=contentAttach&id=13333
Note: As long as you are listening to the advises and orders of the Iranian Regime's lobbies, you are ending up into failure and fiasco.
M. Sirani 24.06.2015
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Free Fall
Once in a while
Let the wild wind
Flies your dream
Into the deepest point
Of the universe
Where no one
Can touch it
Except the one
Who admires you
Except the one
Who deserves you
M. Sirani 23.06.2015
United
Wherever we
live, whoever we are
Let’s all
together, simultaneously
Hand in hand,
united and organized
With full force
and power we have
Push all the
mountains on the Earth
Toward a single
direction: the North
By this move, we
might be able to shift
The current
unfair rotation of the Earth
In the favor of
billions deprived people
M. Sirani
23.06.2015
Viva Machiavelli
Like always, our genius princes
Are busy with their ancient game:
The inherent game of fox and lion;
The old game of power, coercion,
Fear, horror, deception,
exploitation,
Plundering and sucking the wealth;
Along with their intrinsic addiction:
The countless scandalous secrets.
Viva immortal phantom of Machiavelli
The twin brother of our genius
princes
M. Sirani 23.06.2015
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Deep in
Deep in:
Your cute eyes are
The oceans of numerous lovely
secrets
Your soft lips are
The blooms of countless sweet
whispers
Your decent heart is
The sanctuary of unending pure
virtues
Your elegant spirit is
The temple of endless delicate
humors
Your gentle presence is
The sacred space of eternal
happiness
M. Sirani 20.06.2015
One Day
Eventually, in a
beautiful sunny day
When the sky is
full of passionate birds
While you are
dancing solo on the cloud
And your hairs
are charming the air
The wind will
whisper into your ears
The untold words
of a soulless heart
M. Sirani 21.06.2015
Friday, June 19, 2015
An Elegy For My Motherland Iran
That instead of high-flying eagles
The ugly vultures have built the
nest
On the top of your centuries old
wisdom tree
***
Cry out my motherland
That instead of savior lions
The disgusting roar of dirty hyenas
has resonated
Deep inside your centuries old glorious
mountain
***
Cry out my motherland
That instead of mighty thunderbolt
The honest fireflies have
desperately tried to illuminate
Your centuries old eclipse with
their poor flashlights
***
Cry out my motherland
That instead of the unique sun
The mass sunflowers have naively turned
their faces to every spark
In the middle of your centuries old
total darkness
***
Cry out my motherland
That instead of wise harvest
The endless intellectual famine has
dried the roots of every plant
Deep inside your centuries old
enlightenment’s plain
***
Cry out my motherland
For those barren swallows
That would mournfully leave your
gloomy sky
Hoping in vain to taste the free
flight in an earthly Aden
***
Cry out my motherland
For those unborn swallows
That will pay an eternal heavy
price
For our historical neglect and
failure
***
Cry out my motherland
For your painful destiny
For your ominous future
For your cold-blooded history
M. Sirani 19.06.2015
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Praise Your Shadow, Instead of God
No matter young or elderly
Rich or poor; healthy or sick
Cute or ugly; Happy or sad
Tall or short; obese or skinny
Genius or dumb; up or down
Shadow is the only visible mate
That never leaves you unnoticed
In each second the sun is
shining
Thus, in lieu of your divine God
Praise your terrific viable shadow
For its honest and constant
sodality
M. Sirani 17.06.2015
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
The Numbness Epoch
There is no more Mona Lisa around
Nor a miraculous Serenade in the
air
Even the inexhaustible Old
Guitarist
That once could enchant the world
Does not move his magic fingers
***
It seems we are journeying through
Another endless numbness epoch
Where time, space and just a few
Are the only conscious pilgrims
***
The rest are some darned ghosts,
Masked with copies of the Scream,
Hoping in vain that their silent
notes
Are reaching the ears of divine
universe
***
A group of happy baffled slaves
Who deem they are really
experiencing
The essence of life, love and
happiness
While are breathing their own
extinction
***
In this fussy period, just a few
are awake
A few sober pilgrims, who are
struggling
To find an everlasting escape hatch,
in order
To rescue the residents of global
Platonic Cave
M. Sirani 16.06.2015
Monday, June 15, 2015
Two Major Surprises At the End of June.
The world will highly likely observe two major surprise at the end of June, which each one of them will shake the whole world in different terms and scales. These surprises are 1- Dead-end Iran's nuclear talks and 2- Grexit.
M. Sirani 15.06.2015
M. Sirani 15.06.2015
Saturday, June 13, 2015
Roaming
The wicked
pointers of the clock
Are devilishly
moving backward
Each second
seems an endless trip
Deep inside an
infinite black hole
Where time,
space and black matter
Are passing each
other like strangers
M. Sirani 13.06.2015
Thursday, June 11, 2015
A Genuine Love
A Genuine Love
I might not be
able to define a true love
But I’m pretty
sure a genuine love is not
A pure desire
only for sexual satisfaction
Neither a
certain escape hatch for solitude
Nor an inherent
trait for a specific gender
Nor a rich
article for business or beggary
Nor an abstract
chapter in a celestial book
Nor a legally
binding contract on a paper
Nor a spiritual
ceremony in a holy temple
Nor an
opportunistic gate for hitchhiking
Nor a deceptive
departure from calamity
Nor an eternal
ride in an one-way avenue
Nor an enjoyable
playground for truancy
Nor a legitimate
bal masques for teasing
Nor a morally
right coverage for adultery
Nor a fair base
for slaying an innocent soul
Nor a lawful
stage for destroying a destiny
M. Sirani 11.06.2015
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