Briefly:
Contrary to the claim of some historical-political Copier & Paster, who call themselves "Think Tank" or pundit, this tragic event would not start the Third World War. The assassination of the Russian ambassador along with some previous diplomatic disputes between Turkey and the EU - USA (e.g. EU membership, free-visa for Turkish citizens, F. Gulen, etc) have opened the new door of opportunities for Turkey with regards to Russia, Iran and at the end of the road for China as well.
Based on this brief, we can expect many changes with regards to many events in the Middle East, Central Asian countries and Syria as well. The first and important impact of this newly developed rapprochement is that Bashar Assad would remain in the power.
Note: Assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey Does Not Mean the Beginning of the Third World War. On the Contrary, it Means The End of the Syrian Civil War Sooner Than some people Thought. R. Erdogan would highly likely trade Syria with other opportunities offered by Iran, Russia & China.
And the winners are: Iran, Russia, Assad's Regime & China.
The losers are,,,,,,,,,,,, you guess this part.
What will highly likely happen in the next coming months & years? With high probability In short:
A- Turkey would trade Syria in return to some beneficial deals in different terms with Russia, Iran & China
B- Turkey, Russia and Iran would agree to put an end to the Syrian civil war.
C- Turkey, Russia, Iran and Assad's regime would beat the hell out of ISIS in Syria & consequently in Iraq.
D- Pro-Turkey rebels would get amnesty to remain and live in Syria or move to Turkey.
E- China, Russia and Iran would expand their relations with Turkey as much as they can. In this respect, offering the Shanghai Treaty membership to Turkey could be mentioned. This means a historical crashing point for NATO.
F- What would happen to 3 million refugees sheltered in Turkey? If the USA & EU would not cover the costs, Turkey would open its borders toward the EU. This means influx of millions of refugees toward the EU countries.
G- The combination of these events indicate a fact and that is that the entire Middle East and Central Asian countries would experience some type of change/s in different terms.
And many unpleasant events for the USA and the EU,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.
*****All the predictions noted above (And many more other unpleasant events) would come true in the next coming months & years with HIGH PROBABILITY, if the USA & the EU would not fundamentally change their policies with regards to many events in the Middle East and Turkey.
M. Sirani 20.12.2016
There are a few lengthy academic essays in this blog. Among them A- The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Published on TERRORISM RESEARCH & ANALYSIS CONSORTIUM WEBSITE (TRAC), B- Iran Should not Get the Nuclear Bomb (Criticizes K. Waltz's Defensive Realism and Touches FP of Iran in the ME) & C- IRGC could be mentioned (NMBU-2008-2013).The rest are short impromptu analyses and predictive forecasts without any editing. All Rights Reserved.
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