Briefly:
The overall situation within the EU is not in a very good shape. The three countries of Italy, France and Austria are on the verge of leaving the Union. Austria may not, but the separation of France or Italy or both of them from the Union would highly likely lead to the total collapse of the EU. In such a hypothetical scenario, the EU, which is on the verge of total collapse, cannot offer Turkey the membership after all these years promises and negotiations.
Such an event would not be a pleasant news for Ankara and put Turkey in a very difficult position. I don't explore my prediction in this regard in this short note; but, generally speaking, i don't foresee a good picture.
Note: Weak and wrong foreign policy of Obama administration and most of the EU countries caused and intensified unnecessary tensions and conflicts around the world. The harsh backlash of those wrong policies are haunting some EU states.
Like always: Most of the so-called "Think Tanks" are in the hibernation mode about such an important event and its potential negative consequences. (Some Living Tape-Recorder just carry the title of Think Tank).
M. Sirani 01.12.2016
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