Finally after five years, Iran's lobbyist "Hossein Mousavian" has accomplished his mission in the US and returned to Iran. In this respect, we should thank the so-called independent, coeducational and nondenominational Princeton University for facilitating the best undercover opportunity for a criminal and human rights violator such as Hossein Mousavian. The board of education at the Princeton University should be disgraced for providing this opportunity for a person like Mousavian, who as Iran's ambassador in Germany, was involved in the assassination of Iranian opposition in Berlin. The history will never forget the unforgivable crimes of the Islamic Regime and its domestic as well as foreign supporters.
M. Sirani 31.12.2013
There are a few lengthy academic essays in this blog. Among them A- The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Published on TERRORISM RESEARCH & ANALYSIS CONSORTIUM WEBSITE (TRAC), B- Iran Should not Get the Nuclear Bomb (Criticizes K. Waltz's Defensive Realism and Touches FP of Iran in the ME) & C- IRGC could be mentioned (NMBU-2008-2013).The rest are short impromptu analyses and predictive forecasts without any editing. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Monday, December 30, 2013
The New Tactic of Saudi Arabia Will Increase the level of Tension in Some Parts of the Middle East.
The recent nuclear deal between Iran and the six world powers in Geneva has been elevating the level of uncertainty and instability among most of the countries in the Middle East particularly for the two regional powers of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Although, there is no clear light at the end of nuclear negotiation's tunnel with Iran, both Israel and Saudi Arabia feel truly threatened about this deal. There is simple explanation behind this matter.
The politicians in both Israel and Saudi Arabia think that a nuclear deal and more generally any normal relation between Tehran and Washington would offer the Islamic Regime good opportunities from different aspects as following. Firstly, such a nuclear negotiation marathon would give the Islamic Regime enough time to obtain nuclear weapon secretly and gradually. Secondly, any normal relations between Tehran and Washington would indirectly offers Iran free hand to continue further with its hegemonic and expansionist behavior in different parts of the Middle East. These two issues would endanger the security of not only Israel and Saudi Arabia but also their close allies in different parts of the Middle East. These issues, in addition, would threatened Saudi Arabia economically. If Iran would be able to deceive its Western counterparts following the nuclear negotiation, the US and E3 group would lift the economic sanctions on Iran. As such, Iran would be able to sell its oil and gas freely in the international market. Such a event, would decrease the oil revenue of Saudi Arabia to some extent and the same time would economically empower Iran. These assumptions and predictions of the politicians in Israel and Saudi Arabia might be right to some extent based on many reasons. The US reluctance with regards to the Syrian civil war in the last couple of months and recent military deal of selling the Hellfire missiles and ScanEagle drones to Iraq are just some examples, which could be understood in this respect. Through these types of behaviors the US would try to ease the tension with Iran.
Such issues, however, have desperately pushed both Israel and Saudi Arabia toward Russia. Because, Russia is the only actor, which might be able to solve the problems of both Israel and Saudi Arabia at this critical moment. Russia is the main supplier of Iran's nuclear facility-technology and at the same time Russia is the major supporter of Bashar Asad in Syria. During the last couple of months, however, the high ranking officials of Saudi Arabia and Israel have had different meetings with Russian politicians in order to change the behavior of the Kremlin with regards to Iran's nuclear activity and the Syrian civil war. As the media reveal, all these attempts have been failed; Russia has not changed its behavior with regards to these matters up until this moment.
In sum, the US reluctance and Russian ignorance in these matters, however, have been forcing Israel and Saudi Arabia to take care of these problems by their own. Saudi Arabia's massive financial aid to Egypt could be understood in this respect. By this move, Saudi Arabia against the will of the US, the EU, and Iran has been helping the military force in Egypt to defeat the Muslim Brotherhood. The recent Saudi Arabia's 3$ billion grant to the Lebanese army could also be understood in this respect. Through this type of aid, Saudi Arabia would try to gradually decrease the power and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and consequently in Syria. For the first time, the Lebanese army fired anti-aircraft guns at two Syrian helicopters that violated the Lebanese airspace yesterday. This is the first sign of Saudi Arabia's new tactic in the Middle East; a type of self-help. Such a new tactic, consequently, will increase the level of tension in different parts of the Middle East. As such, we will possibly witness more tension and sectarian violence inside Lebanon (between Hezbollah and Sunni groups), Iraq, between Lebanon & Syria, between Israel & Lebanon (Hezbollah) and possibly between Gaza Strip and Israel, in Bahrain, Yemen along with Afghanistan, much more than what we have experienced in the last couple of years. These tensions will not be limited to the Middle East; it will spread to some parts of the former Soviet Union territorial geography as well.
M. Sirani 31.12.2013
The politicians in both Israel and Saudi Arabia think that a nuclear deal and more generally any normal relation between Tehran and Washington would offer the Islamic Regime good opportunities from different aspects as following. Firstly, such a nuclear negotiation marathon would give the Islamic Regime enough time to obtain nuclear weapon secretly and gradually. Secondly, any normal relations between Tehran and Washington would indirectly offers Iran free hand to continue further with its hegemonic and expansionist behavior in different parts of the Middle East. These two issues would endanger the security of not only Israel and Saudi Arabia but also their close allies in different parts of the Middle East. These issues, in addition, would threatened Saudi Arabia economically. If Iran would be able to deceive its Western counterparts following the nuclear negotiation, the US and E3 group would lift the economic sanctions on Iran. As such, Iran would be able to sell its oil and gas freely in the international market. Such a event, would decrease the oil revenue of Saudi Arabia to some extent and the same time would economically empower Iran. These assumptions and predictions of the politicians in Israel and Saudi Arabia might be right to some extent based on many reasons. The US reluctance with regards to the Syrian civil war in the last couple of months and recent military deal of selling the Hellfire missiles and ScanEagle drones to Iraq are just some examples, which could be understood in this respect. Through these types of behaviors the US would try to ease the tension with Iran.
Such issues, however, have desperately pushed both Israel and Saudi Arabia toward Russia. Because, Russia is the only actor, which might be able to solve the problems of both Israel and Saudi Arabia at this critical moment. Russia is the main supplier of Iran's nuclear facility-technology and at the same time Russia is the major supporter of Bashar Asad in Syria. During the last couple of months, however, the high ranking officials of Saudi Arabia and Israel have had different meetings with Russian politicians in order to change the behavior of the Kremlin with regards to Iran's nuclear activity and the Syrian civil war. As the media reveal, all these attempts have been failed; Russia has not changed its behavior with regards to these matters up until this moment.
In sum, the US reluctance and Russian ignorance in these matters, however, have been forcing Israel and Saudi Arabia to take care of these problems by their own. Saudi Arabia's massive financial aid to Egypt could be understood in this respect. By this move, Saudi Arabia against the will of the US, the EU, and Iran has been helping the military force in Egypt to defeat the Muslim Brotherhood. The recent Saudi Arabia's 3$ billion grant to the Lebanese army could also be understood in this respect. Through this type of aid, Saudi Arabia would try to gradually decrease the power and influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and consequently in Syria. For the first time, the Lebanese army fired anti-aircraft guns at two Syrian helicopters that violated the Lebanese airspace yesterday. This is the first sign of Saudi Arabia's new tactic in the Middle East; a type of self-help. Such a new tactic, consequently, will increase the level of tension in different parts of the Middle East. As such, we will possibly witness more tension and sectarian violence inside Lebanon (between Hezbollah and Sunni groups), Iraq, between Lebanon & Syria, between Israel & Lebanon (Hezbollah) and possibly between Gaza Strip and Israel, in Bahrain, Yemen along with Afghanistan, much more than what we have experienced in the last couple of years. These tensions will not be limited to the Middle East; it will spread to some parts of the former Soviet Union territorial geography as well.
M. Sirani 31.12.2013
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Another American Foreign Policy Mistake; This Time in Iraq.
As the media reveal, the US has begun to sell some
AGM-114 Hellfire missile (air -to- surface) and ScanEagle drone to Iraq. The consequences of this deal would not be beneficial for the US, Iraqi people and the Middle East based on some reasons including:
1- Everybody knows that Nouri Al Maleki is the puppet of the Islamic Regime in Iraq. From this, we can deduce that the US is transferring these high tech military equipment indirectly into the hand of the Islamic Regime. As such, we should expect that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset the Quds Force will be able to use these weapons or their technologies in different parts of the Middle East and North Africa somewhere in the future.
2- In reality, Iraq is a failed state. The shaky, vulnerable and weak political system in this country does not have proper control over much of its territory including in its capital Baghdad. The lack of a democratic and stable political system has created a chaotic environment in Iraq. There are increasing numbers of sectarian violence between different criminal-religious- fundamentalist groups including Al Qaeda's affiliates in the country. In such a chaotic environment, there is high probability that some of these criminal or fundamentalist groups will get access to these high-tech military equipment in the future. We should not forget that those Stinger Missiles that the US handed to Taliban to use them against the Soviet forces, were used later by Taliban against the US and its allies forces in Afghanistan.
3- In addition, Iraq is experiencing a devastating civil war in one of its neighboring countries i.e. Syria. If the international community would not be able to find a fundamental solution for the Syrian civil war as soon as possible, sooner or later, the three countries of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq would be dragged into a catastrophic conflict between different religious and fundamentalist groups, much more than what we are experiencing at the present time; a type of deeper regional conflict.
The policy-makers in the US should pay little attention to the consequences of this deal in the long term. However, the decision & policy- makers in the US might think that with this type of incentive they would be able to ease the tension in Syria or achieve a better position with regards to Iran's nuclear negotiation. In this respect, I can say: you are completely in the wrong direction.
M. Sirani 28.12.2013
AGM-114 Hellfire missile (air -to- surface) and ScanEagle drone to Iraq. The consequences of this deal would not be beneficial for the US, Iraqi people and the Middle East based on some reasons including:
1- Everybody knows that Nouri Al Maleki is the puppet of the Islamic Regime in Iraq. From this, we can deduce that the US is transferring these high tech military equipment indirectly into the hand of the Islamic Regime. As such, we should expect that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset the Quds Force will be able to use these weapons or their technologies in different parts of the Middle East and North Africa somewhere in the future.
2- In reality, Iraq is a failed state. The shaky, vulnerable and weak political system in this country does not have proper control over much of its territory including in its capital Baghdad. The lack of a democratic and stable political system has created a chaotic environment in Iraq. There are increasing numbers of sectarian violence between different criminal-religious- fundamentalist groups including Al Qaeda's affiliates in the country. In such a chaotic environment, there is high probability that some of these criminal or fundamentalist groups will get access to these high-tech military equipment in the future. We should not forget that those Stinger Missiles that the US handed to Taliban to use them against the Soviet forces, were used later by Taliban against the US and its allies forces in Afghanistan.
3- In addition, Iraq is experiencing a devastating civil war in one of its neighboring countries i.e. Syria. If the international community would not be able to find a fundamental solution for the Syrian civil war as soon as possible, sooner or later, the three countries of Lebanon, Syria and Iraq would be dragged into a catastrophic conflict between different religious and fundamentalist groups, much more than what we are experiencing at the present time; a type of deeper regional conflict.
The policy-makers in the US should pay little attention to the consequences of this deal in the long term. However, the decision & policy- makers in the US might think that with this type of incentive they would be able to ease the tension in Syria or achieve a better position with regards to Iran's nuclear negotiation. In this respect, I can say: you are completely in the wrong direction.
M. Sirani 28.12.2013
Sunday, December 22, 2013
An Immediate Temporary Truce in Syria is Needed.
Regardless of what the outcome of Geneva III conference would be, the UN should try to implement and enforce an immediate temporary truce in Syria, due to the harsh living conditions of the Syrian refugees in neighboring countries and millions of Syrians, who have been internally displaced in the country. Such a truce is beneficial for the Syrian Regime, the opponents and most importantly for the poor Syrian people from different aspects.
This event is possible, if the UN would be able to discuss the necessity of a temporary truce in an appropriate, comprehensive and neutral manner with the Syrian Regime and the opponents. We should not forget that we had the best opportunity to implement such a truce right after the latest chemical attack in Syria in 21 Aug, 2013 (As I have suggested in my previous short notes repeatedly).
Since then, many innocent people have lost their lives in this battle; many others have left the country and many other have been internally displaced within Syria. A temporary truce would prevent additional unnecessary collateral damages and new waves of refugees. Such simple outcomes do not damage or undermine the power, authority and credibility of neither Bashar Asad nor the Syrian opposition nor the coming Geneva III conference. Implementing a temporary truce would just help to those poor Syrian people, who have lost everything due to the lack of every basic rule, norm, and law at the local, regional and international level. Thus, it would be wise for Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi to focus on this issue as well in addition to his effort for preparing the invitation guest list for the Geneva III conference.
M. Sirani 22.12.2013
This event is possible, if the UN would be able to discuss the necessity of a temporary truce in an appropriate, comprehensive and neutral manner with the Syrian Regime and the opponents. We should not forget that we had the best opportunity to implement such a truce right after the latest chemical attack in Syria in 21 Aug, 2013 (As I have suggested in my previous short notes repeatedly).
Since then, many innocent people have lost their lives in this battle; many others have left the country and many other have been internally displaced within Syria. A temporary truce would prevent additional unnecessary collateral damages and new waves of refugees. Such simple outcomes do not damage or undermine the power, authority and credibility of neither Bashar Asad nor the Syrian opposition nor the coming Geneva III conference. Implementing a temporary truce would just help to those poor Syrian people, who have lost everything due to the lack of every basic rule, norm, and law at the local, regional and international level. Thus, it would be wise for Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi to focus on this issue as well in addition to his effort for preparing the invitation guest list for the Geneva III conference.
M. Sirani 22.12.2013
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Turkish Financial Scandal.
The recent Turkish corruption scandal clearly shows how the Iranian Regime has been able to bypass the economic sanctions. This is just a small sample. There are many other agents like Babak Zanjani and Reza Zarrab, who work for the Iranian Regime and have bases abroad. These agents have bases in different countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Russia, Afghanistan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, etc.
According to the Turkish authorities, Reza Zarrab alone has been involved in nearly 87 billion euro irregular money transactions mostly with Iran. Given the fact that Reza Zarrab and Babak Zanjani are not the only Iran's agents, who are involved in these types of irregular and illegal activities, we should find reasonable answers for the following questions:
1- Can the economic sanctions change the main course of the Islamic Regime?
2- Has the economic sanctions pushed Iran toward the nuclear negotiation?
M. Sirani 21.12.2013
According to the Turkish authorities, Reza Zarrab alone has been involved in nearly 87 billion euro irregular money transactions mostly with Iran. Given the fact that Reza Zarrab and Babak Zanjani are not the only Iran's agents, who are involved in these types of irregular and illegal activities, we should find reasonable answers for the following questions:
1- Can the economic sanctions change the main course of the Islamic Regime?
2- Has the economic sanctions pushed Iran toward the nuclear negotiation?
M. Sirani 21.12.2013
Monday, December 16, 2013
Ukraine At The Crucial Historical Crossroads.
Ukraine at the crucial historical crossroads: between accepting the invisible colonialism rule of the EU or obeying the visible hegemony of big brother Russia.
Nothing more to say; but from the bottom of my heart, I wish the best for Ukrainian people.
M. Sirani 17.12.2013
Nothing more to say; but from the bottom of my heart, I wish the best for Ukrainian people.
M. Sirani 17.12.2013
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
A Golden Dream For the Islamic Regime of Iran.
If Iran would be able to lift those sanctions imposed by the Security Council even temporarily, the country would become untouchable, when it comes to its nuclear activity, due to the increasing level of conflicts between Russia, China and the West at the present and also in the future. Should this happen, Russia and China would veto any resolution imposed by the West against Iran within the Security Council. Following this event, Iran will waiting for the Year 2015; a year that Chinese Yuan will become one of the most used international currencies around the globe. This is the golden dream of Iran; this is the time that the Islamic regime will become an untouchable political system in the world.
M. Sirani 11.12.2013
Monday, December 9, 2013
Iran's Military & Intelligence Budget Will Increase in The Next Year.
Iran's military & Intelligence budget for the next year (1393) will increase as follows.
1- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 36,896,523,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 44,566,686,000,000 Rial
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nearly 20.7% increase
2- The Ministry of Intelligence Service:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 11,381,063,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 13,674,270,000,000 Rial
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nearly 20.1% increase
3- The Regular Army:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 34,446,164,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 51,085,584,000,000 Rial
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nearly 48.3% increase
As noted above, the Regular Army will have a massive increase in its budget in comparison with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the next year. The reason behind this might be enormous economic sanctions imposed by the international community on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset organizations. Through this change, the Islamic Regime might 1- try to bypass the sanctions to some degree or 2- portray an unrealistic image that Iran is decreasing the overall power of the Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps. The massive increase in the military and Intelligence budget might also shed light on the possible outcome of the nuclear negotiation. Those optimist politicians should pay more attention to this part of the story, when it comes to Iran's nuclear activity and Iran's presence in the Syrian civil war. However, we should bear in mind that due to the serious lack of transparency and accountability within the Islamic Regime, the real military & Intelligence budget numbers are much higher than what the Regime has revealed in the media.
M. Sirani 09.12.2013
1- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 36,896,523,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 44,566,686,000,000 Rial
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nearly 20.7% increase
2- The Ministry of Intelligence Service:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 11,381,063,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 13,674,270,000,000 Rial
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nearly 20.1% increase
3- The Regular Army:
Budget for year 1392 ==========> 34,446,164,000,000 Rial
Budget for year 1393 ==========> 51,085,584,000,000 Rial
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nearly 48.3% increase
As noted above, the Regular Army will have a massive increase in its budget in comparison with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the next year. The reason behind this might be enormous economic sanctions imposed by the international community on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its subset organizations. Through this change, the Islamic Regime might 1- try to bypass the sanctions to some degree or 2- portray an unrealistic image that Iran is decreasing the overall power of the Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps. The massive increase in the military and Intelligence budget might also shed light on the possible outcome of the nuclear negotiation. Those optimist politicians should pay more attention to this part of the story, when it comes to Iran's nuclear activity and Iran's presence in the Syrian civil war. However, we should bear in mind that due to the serious lack of transparency and accountability within the Islamic Regime, the real military & Intelligence budget numbers are much higher than what the Regime has revealed in the media.
M. Sirani 09.12.2013
Friday, December 6, 2013
Nelson Mandela "A Real Prophet of Liberty, Freedom and Human Dignity" Dies At Age 95.
A great human being, who spent 27 precious years of his life in captivity, has left us. A real prophet, who devoted his entire life to the basic principles of human dignity, freedom, liberty and brotherhood has died at the age of 95. Let us, instead of mourning and (Crocodile Tears of those, who had closed their eyes to his captivity, due to economic and political interests in South Africa) follow Mandela's legacy. Let us make a better world for 2,7 billion innocent people around the world, who live under poverty line with less than 1 or 2 dollars a day; let us help millions of people around the world, who are in captivity because of their struggles for the basic human rights & needs.
M. Sirani 06.12.2013
M. Sirani 06.12.2013
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
The international community should pay attention to today's Javad Zarif speech at tehran University.
I don't have enough time, otherwise, I would write a short note about Zarif's speech.
Monday, December 2, 2013
Once Again Afghanistan Will Fall In The Hands Of The Taliban After A Bloody Civil War.
No matter the US would sign a security agreement with the current Afghan government or not, Afghanistan will fall in the hands of the Taliban after a bloody civil war as soon as the US and NATO troops would leave the country in late 2014. We should all be aware of self deception and not fall pray to it. The US and NATO troops (nearly 150,000 personnel) have not been able to defeat the Taliban after all these years. How would a security agreement, which allows some American troops (Between 6000 to 9000 personnel) remain in Afghanistan, be able to save the Afghan government against the Taliban?
Moreover, the president Karzai would try to ignore this security agreement with the US. The reason behind this is that the president Karzai might think that he would be able to keep the power in Afghanistan by making a deal or a type of reconciliation (Misassumption) with the Taliban. In this respect, I can say that the president Karzai is in the totally wrong direction. The Taliban would not share the political power in Afghanistan with anyone including Karzai. This is an inseparable ideological characteristic of the Taliban.
As soon as the US and NATO troops would begin to leave Afghanistan, the Taliban would start to seize the power step by step in the whole country. This process would be accompanied with some events as follows.
1- The country would experience a new wave of civil war worse than what it is now.
2- The Karzai's government would finally collapse.
3- Afghanistan would become another battlefield between Iran's troop (Shiite followers) and some troops supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, some other Arab countries in the region and Pakistan (Taliban + Sunni followers).
In sum, Afghanistan would become the biggest fiasco of the US and NATO in the world in different terms (e.g. Nation building, capacity building, economic, political, social, cultural, etc).
M. Sirani 02.12.2013
Moreover, the president Karzai would try to ignore this security agreement with the US. The reason behind this is that the president Karzai might think that he would be able to keep the power in Afghanistan by making a deal or a type of reconciliation (Misassumption) with the Taliban. In this respect, I can say that the president Karzai is in the totally wrong direction. The Taliban would not share the political power in Afghanistan with anyone including Karzai. This is an inseparable ideological characteristic of the Taliban.
As soon as the US and NATO troops would begin to leave Afghanistan, the Taliban would start to seize the power step by step in the whole country. This process would be accompanied with some events as follows.
1- The country would experience a new wave of civil war worse than what it is now.
2- The Karzai's government would finally collapse.
3- Afghanistan would become another battlefield between Iran's troop (Shiite followers) and some troops supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, some other Arab countries in the region and Pakistan (Taliban + Sunni followers).
In sum, Afghanistan would become the biggest fiasco of the US and NATO in the world in different terms (e.g. Nation building, capacity building, economic, political, social, cultural, etc).
M. Sirani 02.12.2013
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
What Has Javad Zarif Said About Arak Nuclear Plant and The Additional Protocol Today?
Today, at a parliamentary session, Javad Zarif explored different parts of the recent Geneva Agreement. In this speech, Zarif emphasized on two important issues including the Heavy Water plant in Arak and Additional Protocol. With regards to Arak nuclear plant, once again, Zarif claimed that the construction of the Heavy Water plant in Arak will unstoppable continue the same is before. When it comes to the Additional Protocol, Zarif claimed that the approval of the Additional Protocol lies in the hands of the Islamic Parliament not the Government (Majles).
Given the fact that the both issues of the Heavy Water plant in Arak and the Additional Protocol supposed to be some important parts of this agreement, a question arises from Zarif's statement. Who is lying in these matters; Zarif or his counterparts within E3+3 group?
M. Sirani 27.11.2013
Reference:
Zarif's speech (2013). URL< http://www.tasnimnews.com/Home/Single/204247>. Accessed on: 27.11.2013.
Given the fact that the both issues of the Heavy Water plant in Arak and the Additional Protocol supposed to be some important parts of this agreement, a question arises from Zarif's statement. Who is lying in these matters; Zarif or his counterparts within E3+3 group?
M. Sirani 27.11.2013
Reference:
Zarif's speech (2013). URL< http://www.tasnimnews.com/Home/Single/204247>. Accessed on: 27.11.2013.
Monday, November 25, 2013
An Important Missing Link in the Recent Geneva Conference!?
In the previous short note, I explored some differences between the details, which have been included in the recent Geneva Agreement and the details that Javad Zarif and Ali Akbar Salehi stated in their press conferences after this conference. However, as I reviewed the details of the Geneva Agreement once again, I understood that this Agreement is missing another important part. This important part is Iran's Laser Enrichment Activities. In the Geneva Agreement has not been written anything at all about this important issue. Based on this point and what I have explored in the previous short note, I can say: In the long run, Iran will be the real winner of the nuclear negotiation.
In sum: let be honest with ourself. Through the last three years, Iran has managed to survive devastating economic and political sanctions. The experience of last three years shows that Iran has learned to bypass some parts of the sanctions; otherwise, it would have not been able to survive up until this moment. In addition to these enormous pressures, Iran has been able to preserve its full hegemony in Iraq. Moreover, under the pressure of these enormous sanctions, Iran has managed
to save Asad's regime up until now, against the will and activity of the most powerful countries such as America, England, France and almost all Arab countries in the Middle East. Furthermore, we know; the Iranian Regime also knows that no country would be able to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities through any type of military strike. Considering these simple facts, we should ask ourself an important question as follows. Why should Iran retreat from its nuclear activity, while it has lots of winning cards in its hand at this stage?
M. Sirani 25.11.2013
In sum: let be honest with ourself. Through the last three years, Iran has managed to survive devastating economic and political sanctions. The experience of last three years shows that Iran has learned to bypass some parts of the sanctions; otherwise, it would have not been able to survive up until this moment. In addition to these enormous pressures, Iran has been able to preserve its full hegemony in Iraq. Moreover, under the pressure of these enormous sanctions, Iran has managed
to save Asad's regime up until now, against the will and activity of the most powerful countries such as America, England, France and almost all Arab countries in the Middle East. Furthermore, we know; the Iranian Regime also knows that no country would be able to completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities through any type of military strike. Considering these simple facts, we should ask ourself an important question as follows. Why should Iran retreat from its nuclear activity, while it has lots of winning cards in its hand at this stage?
M. Sirani 25.11.2013
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Some Ambiguous Issues Within Recent Nuclear Agreement With Iran (Who Lies?).
As I review the details of current nuclear agreement between Iran and E3+3 group, I see some ambiguous issues as follows.
The official website of Voice of America (VOA) has published a Persian version of the current nuclear agreement in Geneva. According to this article, for example:
1- Iran should not enrich uranium above 5%.
2- Iran should either convert its 20% enriched uranium (Nearly 200 kg) into 5% enriched uranium or neutralize it or convert it into a form that cannot be enriched to higher level more than 20%.
3- Another part of this agreement is about the Heavy Water Plant in Arak. According to this part of the agreement, Iran should completely deactivate and dismantle Arak plant and don't proceed any activity or development at all in this nuclear plant (see link 1).
The ambiguous issues derive from Javad Zarif's press conference after the Geneva III agreement. In an interview, which has been published in iribnews website (an Iran's official news agency), Zarif claims something completely different than what has been mentioned in VOA website.
In this interview, for example, Zarif claims:
None of Iran's nuclear activities including Arak Heavy Water Plant will neither shut down nor stop . Furthermore, Zarif claims that Iran needs 20% enriched uranium for its research reactor in Tehran. As such, Iran will continue with this type of enrichment process in the future too; the same as it has done it in the past (see link 2).
By a simple comparison between these two versions (i.e. Zarif's press conference and the article published in VOA website), we come up with some questions as follows:
1- Does Javad Zarif lie in this matter?
2- Is there any misinterpretation in the Voice of America's article (from English to Persian)?
3- Is there any misunderstanding about the details of this agreement between Iran and E3+3 group?
Ambiguity with regards to Geneva Agreement tends to increase, when we pay attention to what Ali Akbar Salehi says. Today, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization in an interview with ILNA claimed that Iran unstoppable will continue with its nuclear activities in all its nuclear facilities including the Heavy Water Plant in Arak.
We should bear in mind that Iran would be able to obtain nuclear weapons by using two methods. The first method is that Iran would be able to enrich uranium up until 90-95%. The second method is that Iran would be able to use some amount of plutonium, which would be produced from its Heavy Water Plant in Arak. As Zarif and Salehi after this agreement claim, , Iran still is able to enrich uranium up until 20% for its research reactor in Tehran and Arak nuclear facility would continue to work the same as before. A serious question arises from this short note. What does President Obama mean, when he claims "the deal includes "substantial limitations" on Iran?
In sum, it seems there is some misunderstanding or something wrong within the details of this agreement. The recent Geneva Agreement to some extent resembles me to another Munich Agreement.
M. Sirani 24.11.2013
References:
Link 1: Persian Version of the agreement published in VOA (2013). URL< http://ir.voanews.com/content/agreement-iran-5plus1-geneva/1796522.html>. Accessed on: 24.11.2013.
Link2: Zarif's press conference with iribnews (2013).
URL< http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/161857.htm>. Accessed on: 24.11.2013.
If my short note is not clear enough, perform a simple research in both links noted above and today's Ali Akbar Salehi speech in Tehran.
The official website of Voice of America (VOA) has published a Persian version of the current nuclear agreement in Geneva. According to this article, for example:
1- Iran should not enrich uranium above 5%.
2- Iran should either convert its 20% enriched uranium (Nearly 200 kg) into 5% enriched uranium or neutralize it or convert it into a form that cannot be enriched to higher level more than 20%.
3- Another part of this agreement is about the Heavy Water Plant in Arak. According to this part of the agreement, Iran should completely deactivate and dismantle Arak plant and don't proceed any activity or development at all in this nuclear plant (see link 1).
The ambiguous issues derive from Javad Zarif's press conference after the Geneva III agreement. In an interview, which has been published in iribnews website (an Iran's official news agency), Zarif claims something completely different than what has been mentioned in VOA website.
In this interview, for example, Zarif claims:
None of Iran's nuclear activities including Arak Heavy Water Plant will neither shut down nor stop . Furthermore, Zarif claims that Iran needs 20% enriched uranium for its research reactor in Tehran. As such, Iran will continue with this type of enrichment process in the future too; the same as it has done it in the past (see link 2).
By a simple comparison between these two versions (i.e. Zarif's press conference and the article published in VOA website), we come up with some questions as follows:
1- Does Javad Zarif lie in this matter?
2- Is there any misinterpretation in the Voice of America's article (from English to Persian)?
3- Is there any misunderstanding about the details of this agreement between Iran and E3+3 group?
Ambiguity with regards to Geneva Agreement tends to increase, when we pay attention to what Ali Akbar Salehi says. Today, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization in an interview with ILNA claimed that Iran unstoppable will continue with its nuclear activities in all its nuclear facilities including the Heavy Water Plant in Arak.
We should bear in mind that Iran would be able to obtain nuclear weapons by using two methods. The first method is that Iran would be able to enrich uranium up until 90-95%. The second method is that Iran would be able to use some amount of plutonium, which would be produced from its Heavy Water Plant in Arak. As Zarif and Salehi after this agreement claim, , Iran still is able to enrich uranium up until 20% for its research reactor in Tehran and Arak nuclear facility would continue to work the same as before. A serious question arises from this short note. What does President Obama mean, when he claims "the deal includes "substantial limitations" on Iran?
In sum, it seems there is some misunderstanding or something wrong within the details of this agreement. The recent Geneva Agreement to some extent resembles me to another Munich Agreement.
M. Sirani 24.11.2013
References:
Link 1: Persian Version of the agreement published in VOA (2013). URL< http://ir.voanews.com/content/agreement-iran-5plus1-geneva/1796522.html>. Accessed on: 24.11.2013.
Link2: Zarif's press conference with iribnews (2013).
URL< http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/161857.htm>. Accessed on: 24.11.2013.
If my short note is not clear enough, perform a simple research in both links noted above and today's Ali Akbar Salehi speech in Tehran.
Saturday, November 23, 2013
Important Message To South Korea, Japan and India
Those South Asian countries that are importing their oil, gas and other important natural resources from Iran, should find a new reliable, stable and secure supplier, no matter what the outcome of current Geneva Conference would be. The politicians and policy- makers in these countries should understand that the Iranian Regime cannot be trusted in this important matter based on two main reasons including 1- Iran's adventurous behavior at the local, regional and global level. 2- Iran's close, inseparable and unlimited ties with China, North Korea and Russia. Based on these reasons, it would be wise that some countries such as South Korea, Japan and India do not put their eggs in Iran's basket specially when it comes to some important and vital resources such as oil and gas. These countries should not put their security, security of their economy and more importantly their level of vulnerabilities at risk with regards to adventurous and unpredictable behavior of the Iranian Regime.
M. Sirani 23.11.2013
M. Sirani 23.11.2013
Friday, November 22, 2013
Sending A Man Into Space.
Yesterday, in an interview with IRNA, Hamid Fazeli (2nd Name: Mohsen Kafi) the current head of the Iranian Space Agency (ISA) claimed that Iran is preparing to send a man into space somewhere in the future.
The nature of this move i.e. sending a man into space, is pure scientific and peaceful as Hamid Fazeli claimed. This move, however, is exactly the same as peaceful nuclear activity of the Iranian Regime. I emphasize on these two issues; because I don't want anyone think that Iran is trying to develop long range nuclear warhead secretly under the name of peaceful and scientific activity. To put it simply, every move of the Iranian Regime is pure peaceful and scientific. In this respect, establishment of Hezbollah, supporting different radical Shiite groups around the world, arms trafficking, different activities of the IRGC and Quds Force around the globe could be mentioned. All these activities have peaceful, scientific and progressive nature.
I believe this is the time that we should change the name of Iran to: The Peaceful Islamic Republic of Iran.
M. Sirani 22.11.2013
The nature of this move i.e. sending a man into space, is pure scientific and peaceful as Hamid Fazeli claimed. This move, however, is exactly the same as peaceful nuclear activity of the Iranian Regime. I emphasize on these two issues; because I don't want anyone think that Iran is trying to develop long range nuclear warhead secretly under the name of peaceful and scientific activity. To put it simply, every move of the Iranian Regime is pure peaceful and scientific. In this respect, establishment of Hezbollah, supporting different radical Shiite groups around the world, arms trafficking, different activities of the IRGC and Quds Force around the globe could be mentioned. All these activities have peaceful, scientific and progressive nature.
I believe this is the time that we should change the name of Iran to: The Peaceful Islamic Republic of Iran.
M. Sirani 22.11.2013
Thursday, November 21, 2013
What Have We Missed?
Almost three months ago, when the horrific chemical attack was occurred in Syria, I wrote many short notes repeatedly and claimed: "I have a solution for the Syrian civil war"; "we can use this disastrous inhuman event and turn it into a golden opportunity"; "we can completely change the direction of the Syrian civil war, etc. (See my short notes from 24.08.2013 from over). I didn't publish the whole my plan in my blog due to the fact that I didn't want to see that Iran and its allies use this horrific chemical attack in their benefits. All of you remember that the situation was totally critical. It was a moment that the US and France had decided to launch a military strike on Syria. That critical situation finally forced me to publish the short note titled "A plan that might save the world from an additional disaster" in my blog on 07.09.2013. If we could implement my plan earlier than Russia and Iran, we might have been able to decrease the influence or dismantle the roles of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria; we might have been able to use that opportunity in order to get a upper hand with regards to Iran's nuclear negotiation; we might have been to change the direction of the Syrian civil war in a positive way. Now, the international community has lost the battle in Syria to the group of Asad's regime, Iran, Hezbollah. This event has given Iran an extra upper hand or a winning card with regards to its nuclear activity. As such, the politicians in Tehran think that they are really untouchable in the Middle East; because they have saved Asad's regime against the rest of the world in different critical occasions. Therefore, I believe the chance that Iran would retreat from its nuclear activity at this particular time is very low. As I have mentioned in my earlier short notes, Iran is following the two paths and methods of North Korea and Israel parallel to each other with regards to its nuclear activity. Iran might give up one of these two nuclear projects (Israeli or North Korean model), in order to ease or lift the sanctions. But the chance that Iran would simultaneously give up both these nuclear projects (i.e. Israeli and North Korean Model) is almost impossible. And, this subject is something that Israeli intelligence service is fully aware of that more than any other intelligence services around the world. They know exactly which types of methods Iran is pursuing.
In sum, the international community has missed that historical event with regards to the Syrian civil war. Thus, let us don't miss another historical event once again. In order to avoid another failure, we should force Iran to accept the Additional Protocol. We should remember that any agreement with regards to Iran's nuclear activity without the Additional Protocol (Imposed and monitored by IAEA) is worthless and useless. We should not repeat another Munich Agreement.
M. Sirani 21.11.2013
In sum, the international community has missed that historical event with regards to the Syrian civil war. Thus, let us don't miss another historical event once again. In order to avoid another failure, we should force Iran to accept the Additional Protocol. We should remember that any agreement with regards to Iran's nuclear activity without the Additional Protocol (Imposed and monitored by IAEA) is worthless and useless. We should not repeat another Munich Agreement.
M. Sirani 21.11.2013
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Geneva Meeting 3 between Iran and the E3+3.
Based on the comments and discussions of different politicians in Iran, It seems the genie is (or I might say the genie is already) out of the bottle. If the E3+3 do not want to have any direct military confrontation with Iran in the near future, they should force Iran to accept the Additional Protocol at this stage. Otherwise be prepared to accept everything in the Middle East, except peace and stability in the future.
M. Sirani 20.11.2013
M. Sirani 20.11.2013
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Without The Additional Protocol (Imposed & Controlled by IAEA), Any Agreement about Iran's Nuclear Activity Would be Worthless and Useless.
The additional protocol, which allows IAEA's inspectors for unannounced and unexpected visit, should be the first article in the statute of the IAEA. To put it simply, every country, which would decide to build a nuclear plant, should mandatory sign this agreement from the beginning; in the first step of its nuclear activity. The UN should get good lessons from North Korea and Iran in this matter.
So is the case of chemical weapons. A new member of the UN should sign different agreements with regards to the Convention of Chemical Weapons. If the UN would manage to act in this way, the international community would get less conflict in the future. The Republic of South Sudan is a clear example in this particular matter. The South Sudan was recognized as a new Member State by the United Nations General Assembly on 14 July 2011. Yet, the country has not signed and ratified the Convention of the Chemical Weapons. Something, which we could have done it easily during a one day negotiation on July 2011 without any time, energy and money wasting. We should not forget: prevention is better and cheaper than cure.
M. Sirani 17.11.2013
So is the case of chemical weapons. A new member of the UN should sign different agreements with regards to the Convention of Chemical Weapons. If the UN would manage to act in this way, the international community would get less conflict in the future. The Republic of South Sudan is a clear example in this particular matter. The South Sudan was recognized as a new Member State by the United Nations General Assembly on 14 July 2011. Yet, the country has not signed and ratified the Convention of the Chemical Weapons. Something, which we could have done it easily during a one day negotiation on July 2011 without any time, energy and money wasting. We should not forget: prevention is better and cheaper than cure.
M. Sirani 17.11.2013
Friday, November 15, 2013
Do You See Any Correlation Or Not Yet?
The recent U.N. atomic watchdog report claims that Iran has not made radical changes in its nuclear activity since three months ago.
The chemical attack in Syria, which killed more than 1400 innocent people, was occurred almost three months ago.
Do you see any correlation between these two events or not yet?
These are just two simple sentences, but the correlation between them describes lots of things, which should not be ignored.
You might think you are smarter than the Iranian Regime. You might think that you can play the game of stick and carrot with the Iranian Regime in the next couple of years up until the end of your presidency without having any military confrontation with Iran. In response to these assumptions, I can say: you are in the wrong direction. Iran does not need three or four years to pursue its main goal.
It should be mentioned that I'm totally against the Iranian regime and at the same time against any military confrontation against the Iranian Regime. Because based on many reasons, I know clearly that even an extensive military strike cannot stop Iran's nuclear activity.
M. Sirani 15.11.2013
The chemical attack in Syria, which killed more than 1400 innocent people, was occurred almost three months ago.
Do you see any correlation between these two events or not yet?
These are just two simple sentences, but the correlation between them describes lots of things, which should not be ignored.
You might think you are smarter than the Iranian Regime. You might think that you can play the game of stick and carrot with the Iranian Regime in the next couple of years up until the end of your presidency without having any military confrontation with Iran. In response to these assumptions, I can say: you are in the wrong direction. Iran does not need three or four years to pursue its main goal.
It should be mentioned that I'm totally against the Iranian regime and at the same time against any military confrontation against the Iranian Regime. Because based on many reasons, I know clearly that even an extensive military strike cannot stop Iran's nuclear activity.
M. Sirani 15.11.2013
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