Saturday, August 10, 2013

Arrival of a New Actor in the Syrian Civil War!!!

As i predicted in my essay about the Syrian civil war:
Today, the president of Iraq`s semi-autonomous Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani has threatened to intervene in the Syrian conflict, in order to defend the Kurdish people. What would happen, if the Iraqi Kurd would join the Syrian civil war?
The consequences are briefly as follows.

1- The arrival of a new actor would worsen the situation in Syria more than what it is. This event would expand the dimension and scope of this conflict to some neighboring countries including Iraq and to some extent Turkey as well. .

2- If the Iraqi Kurd would join the conflict, sooner or later, the Kurd in Turkey might also join the conflict.
Should this happen, the Iranian regime might use this opportunity and provoke the Kurd in Turkey, in order to decrease the effort of the Turkish authority with regard to the Syrian conflict.This event would threaten the sovereignty of Turkey to some degree and as a consequence, would drag Turkey into this conflict.

3- Given the fact that semi-autonomous Kurdistan sells its oil through Iran soil (without any agreement and permission from Maleki government, which is the source of conflict between Maleki and Barzani), the Iraqi Kurd group would not create any serious problem for Asad`s forces as well as the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard corps and Hezbollah.

4- The Kurdish people in Syria has been fragmented, due to some circumstances. Some of them are supporting Asad`s regime and some of them are organized within the Syrian National Council. The arrival of the Iraqi Kurd in Syria would cause more fragmentation between the Kurdish people in Syria. This event, as a result, would be more beneficial for Asad`s regime and Iran.

M. Sirani                      10.08.2013