Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Egypt at the Early Stage of a Possible Civil War in the Near Future!!!

The situation in Egypt is severely conflictual and critical.  The country will experience a devastating civil war in the near future, if the International community and the United Nation would not act properly and immediately. At this early stage, the international community and the UN should focus on three main primary tasks including:

1- Saudi Arabia and some other members of the Arab League should stop supporting the Salafists.

2- Turkey and qatar should have a serious talk with the Muslim Brotherhood and force this organization to start a diplomatic dialogue with the current political system in Egypt, in order to find a peaceful solution for this conflict.

3- The international community and the UN should force the current Egyptian government toward more democratization along with implementation of sustainable development programs in economic, political, social and cultural arenas in the country.
These tasks should be fulfilled and performed by the UN or some other states as soon as possible. In other word, the UN should immediately invite all internal actors (The Egptian army, current government and the Muslim Brotherhood) and external actors(Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) for a peaceful and diplomatic talk. We should not repeat the same mistake that we have done in Syria, when the UN appointed Kofi Annan couple months later, after the civil war had already begun in the country.

4- The important issue is the possible involvement of Iran in this conflict in the near future. This instability in Egypt is a good opportunity for the Iranian regime. Iran can easily support the Muslim Brotherhood organization in order to put a extra pressure on Saudi Arabia and at the same time divert the mind of people from Syria into new conflict in Egypt.

In sum, we should not be genius to understand how some factors such as high rate of unemployment, severe poverty, the deep polarization in the Egyptian society, the presence of the Salafists and other Jihadists in Sinai peninsula, having border with unstable state such as Libya, etc could intensify the scope and dimension of the conflict in the important and strategic country like Egypt.

M. Sirani               14.08.2013