Briefly: (I emphasize: If this story is true). As a result of "Kindergarten Foreign Policy", It seems Turkey is detaching from the West under the watch and before the eyes of Obama Administration.
There is a rumor in the media that the USA is removing its nuclear weapons from Turkey and is moving them to Romania.
If this story is true, this is a very big development in different terms and has many consequences in various forms, terms and scales.
First and foremost, this development would be a great victory for Russia and Iran. Removing the US nuclear weapons from Turkey after nearly 60-70 years means a lot for both Iran & Russia.
The consequences of this move, on the contrary, would be devastating in different terms for USA and EU. Here below, some possible negative consequences of this move would be briefly mentioned.
A- This development shows that all the strategists and policy makers in NATO, USA (Obama administration-J. Kerry & H. Clinton) and EU have not had any correct, reasonable, logical and reliable analysis with regards to various developments in Turkey in the last couple of years until recently, whether its domestic as well as its foreign affairs. If they had, they would have prevented such a disastrous event. This is a big failure mostly for Obama administration & NATO that they haven't done a good observation with regards to all the movements of Erdogan government in the last couple of years.
B- Removing nuclear weapons from Turkey and relocating them in Romania simply & clearly indicates a fact that the situation in Turkey is unstable. Regardless of the reaction of Turkey in this matter, which would be negative definitely, this event shows that NATO is experiencing a powerful earthquake in a way that some powerful external factors have forced USA & NATO to remove the nuclear weapons from the Geo-Strategically important territory of Turkey.
C- The negative consequences of this move are enormous & devastating. This event might highly likely put the EU membership of Turkey at a serious risk. I might say this event would put an end to that process automatically.
D- This event along with many other issues such as EU demands from Turkey, the presence of F. Gulen in the USA, some accusation about the recent military coup in Turkey, etc would highly likely deteriorate the relationship between Turkey and USA-EU in different terms including the situation of more than 3 million refugees, who are sheltered in Turkey. As a consequence, USA-EU and Turkey might not be able to achieve a good deal in this matter. As such, the EU might face a new waves of influx of refugees in the near future.
E- Based on many reasons, which i have briefly explored them in some previous notes, Turkey will highly likely expand its relationship in different terms with Russia & Iran in the region. Such a coalition will change the balance of power in the region to a large extent. This issue is not a pleasant event neither for the USA, nor for the EU nor for the Saudi Arabia nor for Egypt nor for some other Arab countries in the region including Israel.
F- This event will put an end to the dream of an independent Kurdish State at least for some decades to come; due to deeper and broader cooperation between Turkey, Iran, central government in Iraq (which is the puppet of Iranian regime) and POSSIBLY Bashar Assad.
G- This event should teach a good lesson to old-fashioned pundits and politicians in the USA and EU. The lesson is that it is the time that USA & EU should put an end to their 40-45 years old policy amid supporting and promoting various types of Islamic states, Islamic groups, and more generally Islamization in the Middle East and Africa. Because time has changed and any continuation in this matter would be disastrous and devastating first and foremost for the Western countries.
Note: Analyzing this event and its overall consequences is a huge discussion. What i mentioned above is just a brief explanation in this matter. Once again, i emphasize: If this news is true, this is a big fiasco for the USA, NATO and EU; on the contrary is a big win for the Iranian Regime & Russia at regional as well as global level.
M. Sirani 19.08.2016
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