Nuclear Deal or No Deal With Iran?

When it comes to the nuclear negotiation with the Iranian Regime at this stage, the representatives of the USA, UK, France and Germany should put their feet in the shoes of policy makers in Tehran for a moment and look at the situation as a whole in that perspective. What would they see and observe?

They see (From Iran's policy makers perspective) that Iran has built nearly 20 nuclear plants across the country (As far as the international community has discovered). The western countries cannot destroy all these nuclear plants with military strike, particularly when it comes to Fordow nuclear plant, which has been built nearly 90 meters deep under the ground. In addition, any military strike against Iran's nuclear plants would end up into a huge environmental catastrophe not only for Iran and the Iranian People but also for the all people in the region.

Moreover, the current military operation of the USA and its allies in Iraq and Syria is totally beneficial for Iran and Syria in different terms. These military operations, in addition, show clearly that the coalition is desperately trying to do something in Iraq and Syria, but they have absolutely no idea what the final point of these operations would be. The members of coalition does not have a clear and coherent strategy and tactic with regards to the current tension in Iraq and Syria. Some of them, for example Australia, wants to get rid off Assad's regime in Syria and at the same time, in a total contradiction, wants to cooperate with the Iranian force in Iraq against ISIS. Some like, Saudi Arabia wants to get rid of both regimes in Iran and Syria, but at the same time fight against ISIS in the favor of both Iranian and Syrian Regimes.

Furthermore, most of the western countries are struggling with some type of economic and political crisis in their own countries each to some extent. In the USA, for example, the republican party is going to seize the power from Democrats in different arena. Some of the EU countries are struggling with economic crisis. When it comes to foreign policy, most of the western countries are struggling with Russia, for example, due to current tension in Ukraine. So is the case of China in another term. The public opinion in the western countries is not ready for a military strike against Iran's nuclear plant at least at this stage. In sum, the list goes on in different social, cultural, economic, political and environmental terms in both domestic as well as international arena.

Based on the brief explanation noted above, if you were a policy maker in Tehran, would you accept a nuclear deal with the western countries as they wish?

If we honestly put our feet in the shoes of policy makers in Tehran, the right answer to this question would probably be a strong NO.



M. Sirani                                                31.10.2014