Monday, November 3, 2014

Iran Should Not Get The Nuclear Bomb; A Critical Analysis Against Kenneth Waltz's Statement in This Matter.


Iran should not get the nuclear bomb.


                                An inquiry into the compatibility of Structural Realism
   

                           Approaches and Iran’s foreign policy in the Middle East


Figure 1: Iran's Expansionist Activities in The Middle East.

Red Arrow: Iran's offensive activities.

Green Arrow: Iran's final plan for the Middle East.







Mehran Sirani                                        03.09.2012


Note: It should be mentioned that i wrote this essay during a 5 credits extensive course (August 2012) in the first month of beginning of my master program in International Relations. 









Introduction:

Undoubtedly, the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the most controversial states in the contemporary world, when it comes to the issue such as the behavior of state.  Since 1979, the harsh behavior of Iran in domestic issues against its own people has been criticized and condemned by many human rights and international organizations in different occasions. In the international arena, Iran has been continuously ignoring and violating the legitimacy and sovereignty of other states in many occasions. As a result, the country has been involved in many tension and turmoil in different situations and locations in the world. So far, different evidences have shown that Iran’s behavior does not have any harmony and compatibility with the behavior of some other states, particularly in the strategic region of the Middle East (Sirani, 2012).    
Iran’s nuclear activity is a clear example of such controversial attitudes, which, recently has caused many tension in the world. Iran constantly insists that its nuclear programme has peaceful nature and the country wants to use nuclear energy to meet its own domestic needs on key issues such as providing electricity, medical purposes, and scientific researches. Contrary to Iran’s claim, the US and the EU are not convinced about peaceful purpose of Iran’s nuclear activity; therefore, they have imposed sever economic sanctions on Iran. Although, these economic restrictions have put enormous pressure on the country, different evidences indicate that, so far, Iran does not want to halt its nuclear activities (Sirani, 2012).
Iran’s nuclear activity has generated controversial discussions in academic circles too. Many International Relations scholars have examined this particular issue from different perspectives and each one of them has offered a different opinion about it. Among these opinions, Kenneth Waltz’s statement is one of the most controversial and interesting one, which claims that a nuclear-armed Iran would cause peace and stability in the Middle East (PBS, 2012).       
An important question arises from this short introduction. Would nuclear-armed Iran provide peace and stability in the Middle East? Although, analyzing this issue in depth requires more data and time, but this paper will attempt to find an appropriate answer to this particular question.     

3: Main Discussion:
Before we begin the main discussion, it would be useful to examine the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activity. The next section shall discuss this issue.      

3.1. Does Iran’s nuclear activity have peaceful nature?
As mentioned in the introduction section, Iran repeatedly claims that its nuclear activity has peaceful nature. However, there are some evidences, which to some extent undermine this claim. Firstly, Iran is among the richest countries due to its massive oil and gas reserves. The country is the fourth largest oil producer in the world ranking by extracting 4.252 million barrels of crude oil daily. In addition to oil reserves, Iran holds the second largest gas reserves in the world after Russia. According to the official report released by The World Factbook (CIA) website, just in 2010, Iran has exported approximately 7.87 thousand million cubic meters of natural gas to different countries in the world. This information indicates the fact that Iran has enough natural resources to meet its own domestic energy demands (CIA, 2012).  

Secondly, the country has one of the best geographical advantages in the world for producing the clean and renewable solar-wind energy. Iran has two major deserts of Dasht-e Kavir (390 km wide) and Dasht-e Lut (320 km), which both of them occupy majority of central, east, and southeastern areas of the country. These areas are arid, semiarid, relatively rainless with harsh climate, and almost uninhabitable. If Iran really needs energy sources, the country can generate relatively large amounts of solar-wind energy in these areas without any serious risks to human, animal health, environmental issues and tension with the international community (Britannica, 2012).
Thirdly, some other issues including: the lack of transparency and full commitment to collaboration with IAEA, the huge financial costs of research, construction, material, maintenance of nuclear plants, plus high probability of human and ecological risks inherent with any nuclear project, would pose a challenge to the mind of every thoughtful person about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activity. All explained above, to some extent undermines the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activity; therefore, we can deduce that the probability of Iran’s willingness to acquire nuclear weapon is high. This issue raises a serious question: should Iran get the nuclear bomb? The next section shall analyze this question (Sirani, 2012). 

3.2. Should Iran get the nuclear bomb?
Contrary to the present and former Iranian policy makers, Kenneth Waltz is not in the state of denial and bravely answers “yes” to this particular question. Undoubtedly, K. Waltz is one of the most prominent scholars of structural realism, whose significant contribution to International Relations is something that no one can deny. In an interview with PBS, Waltz argues that for many years, Israel has held the position of the only dominant and superior country in the Middle East. This issue has caused unevenness power situation and consequently instability in the region. Moreover, he states that in the past 70 years, there has not been any offence from any nuclear state against crucial interest of another nuclear capable country. Waltz underpins his statement with an example from cold war era and further claims; since the United States and former Soviet Union possessed nuclear weapons, the balance of power, and consequently stability were established in the world. Moreover, he argues, when a state obtains enough numbers of nuclear weapons, it can use them for deterrence. In other words, as he states, nuclear weapons provide peace. Based on these types of arguments, Waltz concludes that a nuclear-armed Iran would create the balance of power between two countries i.e. Iran and Israel in the Middle East. As a result, this issue will provide peace and stability in the region (PBS, 2012).    

Some questions arise from Waltz’s controversial arguments noted above. How does Kenneth Waltz perceive the international politics? How does K. Waltz evaluate the behavior of states when he openly and loudly announces that Iran should get the nuclear bomb? The reasonable answers to these questions can help us to judge the issue of nuclear-armed Iran in an appropriate manner. However, Waltz’s statement about nuclear-armed Iran stems from his structural realism theory, which is commonly named defensive realism. Generally, structural realists (including defensive realists) agree that international politics is originally a struggle for power but they do not support the idea of classical realist that this is an effect of human nature. Instead, they argue that security rivalry and inter-state conflict occur, due to the absence of a superior authority above states and relative distribution of power in the international system. Waltz describes the structure of the international system, based on three main principles including:
“Organizing principles (anarchy, which corresponds to the decentralized realm of international politics, and hierarchy, which is the basis of domestic order), differentiation of units and distribution of capabilities” (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008, P.98). 
Amongst these principles, Waltz argues that the distribution of power is the important element for understanding the different events that occur in the international politics. Furthermore, he states:
“Power is a means to the end of security. … Because power is a possibly useful means, sensible Statesmen try to have an appropriate amount of it. He adds, in crucial situations, however, the ultimate concern of states is not for power but for security (Waltz 1989:40). In other words, rather than being power maximizers, states, according to Waltz, are security maximizers” (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008, P.98, 99).  
This statement clearly explains how Kenneth Waltz perceives the international politics and based on which assumption, he defends the nuclear-armed Iran statement. In order to justify or refute Waltz’s statement about this issue, it would be appropriate to evaluate the behavior of Iran in the international arena. If the result of this evaluation confirms that Iran is a security maximizer state (as Waltz’s theory generally explains), then we can justify Waltz’s statement that nuclear-armed Iran would create the balance of power and stability in the Middle East. On the contrary, if we find that Iran is a power maximizer state, then, we can claim that a nuclear-armed Iran not only would not provide stability in the Middle East, instead, it would intensify the scope of tension and conflict in the whole region. In this case, we can argue that Waltz’s statement about this sensitive and important issue is severely questionable or even more refutable. This important issue shall be discussed in the next section.     

3.2.1. Is Iran a power maximizer or a security maximizer state?
In order to answer this question, it would be useful to have a brief knowledge about Iran’s behavior abroad, particularly in the Middle East. The emergence of the Islamic Regime in Iran in 1979 inspired the whole Shiite people around the world particularly in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Since the early days of the Islamic revolution, Iran has begun to identify, organize, fund, and promote different Shiite groups around the globe, in order to mobilize and use them in different occasions towards its own main goals. Relying on such potential army of supporters, Iran has mapped out its foreign policy based on three main principles of 1- building alliance with its friends, 2- exporting the Islamic revolution to different countries and 3-causing hostility against its enemies. The fulfillment of these principles along with interference in internal and external affairs of other countries, so far, has caused many tension and instability around the world, particularly in the strategic region of the Middle East (Sirani, 2011, 2012).  
First and nearest victim of such meddling was Iraq. Since 1979, Iran has started to support the Shiite group in Iraq in different ways, in order to persuade them to rebel against Saddam Hussein, the former dictator of Iraq. Consequently, in 1980, this hostile behavior along with some other reasons triggered the war between the two countries for almost eight years. In addition to Iraq, Israel was one of the main targets for the Islamic Regime from the beginning. Therefore, since early days of the Islamic revolution, Iran has begun to build a strong relationship with Syria as a strategic partner in the Middle East. This relationship has brought some opportunities for Iran. Firstly, Iran could expand its influence and authority beyond its territory near the borders of Israel. Secondly, Iran has achieved a better possibility to assist Shiite minorities in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine in their struggles against Saddam Hussein and Israel. In 1982, Iran’s overall supports helped the Shiite militia group in Lebanon and consequently the Hezbollah organization was officially established (Kepel, 2002; Buchta, 2000; Sirani, 2012).                    

It is worth nothing that during this particular time, while Iran was sponsoring the Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria in their hostility against the US and Israel, these two states (Israel and the US) were selling weapons to Iran against Saddam Hussein. Moreover, Saudi Arabia was another important target for Iran, since 1979. From the beginning of the Islamic revolution, Iran has begun to provoke the Shiite groups in Afghanistan, Bahrain, and Yemen against Saudi Arabia. To summarize, since 1979, Iran has provided financial, logistical, military, and training supports to different Shiite groups in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Sudan, Nigeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. We should bear in mind that some of these Shiite groups have based their headquarters in exile in Iran. Some clear examples of Iran’s unlawful activities are: hostage taking of foreign nationals (e.g. in Tehran and Lebanon), bombing (e.g. Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires), terror & death threats (e.g. Iranian dissidents abroad, Salman Rushdie) and sponsoring different Islamic fundamental groups (e.g. Hezbollah and Hamas) (Kepel, 2002; Buchta, 2000; Sirani, 2012).                     

This short summary of Iran’s activities abroad undermines the accuracy of Waltz’s statement mentioned in the previous section from different angles. Waltz argues that in a crucial situation, the ultimate concern of any state is its security. As mentioned above, the Islamic Regime, from early days of the revolution (i.e. a crucial situation), has begun to support the different Shiite militia groups abroad. This example indicates that this part of Waltz’s theory (with all respect to Waltz) is not compatible with the behavior of Iran and is severely questionable (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008).
Furthermore, Waltz argues that all states, rather than being power maximizers, are security maximizers. This part of Waltz’s statement is also highly questionable. Based on all explained above, then how would we evaluate Iran’s aggressive behavior beyond its borders? Would Iran be recognized as just a security maximizer state, since the country, from the beginning, has constantly interfered with any external and internal affairs of different Muslim countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East? More generally, would it be reasonable to generalize this part of Waltz’s statement to all states including Iran with such aggressive behavior abroad? These questions to some extent undermine this part of Waltz’s statement and prove that Iran is not just a security maximizer state. Another realist scholar such as Randall Schweller also criticizes this part of Waltz’s statement and claims that historically this assumption is not correct. Schweller argues that:
“The assumption that all states have an interests in security results in neo-realism exhibiting a profoundly status quo basis” (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008, p. 99).
Schweller uses the ideas of other scholars such as Morgenthau and Kissinger and further defines the difference between status quo state and revisionist state by using Germany as a historical example. He categorizes Germany as a revisionist state in the 1930s and a status quo state after the Second World War and further argues that these two positions i.e. status quo and revisionism have had tremendous impact on the behavior of Germany in the international system during these periods of time. From this, Schweller concludes:
“Not only do states differ in terms of their interests, but they also differ in terms of their ability to extract and direct resources from the societies that they rule” (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008, p. 99).      

Schweller’s argument to certain extent refutes waltz’s statement and at the same time, it underpins our argument about the behavior of Iran abroad. In fact, the history of Iran’s behavior in the Middle East illustrates that, Iran gradually, continuously and sometimes even aggressively has expanded its hegemony and dominance beyond its borders in different parts of the region. These hegemonic behaviors indicate that, unlike Waltz’s statement, Iran is more prone to power maximization and sometimes even more; Iran has been willing to gamble and sacrifice its own security in order to achieve more hegemony and power. The recent nuclear standoff would be a clear example of such attitude. Iran’s doubtful nuclear activity, so far, has caused severe economic sanctions for the country and even more, it might lead Iran into a devastating war. However, with all these difficulties and potentially dangerous consequences, Iran still does not want to suspend its nuclear activity, even at the expense of its own security and the life of its own people (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008; Sirani, 2012). 

All explained above, brings us to two important points. Firstly, it indicates that Iran is a power maximizer state and more generally, in the crucial situation, (e.g. the early days of the Islamic Revolution and current nuclear stand off); the ultimate concern of Iran has not been and is not security as waltz’s theory generally argues. Secondly, it proves that defensive realism theory is unable to find reasonable and reliable explanation about the behavior of Iran abroad. Therefore, we can conclude that the idea of nuclear-armed Iran stated by Kenneth Waltz is seriously questionable. However, in order to reject this idea with more accuracy, we need more theoretical explanation and evidence about Iran and Its behavior. The next section shall analyze these issues.

3.3. Analyzing the nature of Iran’s behavior:
In order to examine the behavior of Iran more in depth, it would be appropriate to review another approach within structural realism, which is relevant to this topic. This approach, explored by John Mearsheimer is termed as offensive realism. This view shares some basic assumption with Waltz’s defensive realism; but differs when it comes to the issue of how much power any state would desire. Mearsheimer argues that the lack of a central powerful authority, which can control the behavior of states, has caused anarchy in the international system. In this anarchistic system, all states are potential threats to each other; therefore, they face uncertainty and distrust about the intentions and purposes of other states. This situation, inevitably, forces states to increase their power and sometimes their offensive military abilities, in order to protect their security and sovereignty (Baylis, 2008; Dunne & Schmidt, 2008).   
Moreover, Mearsheimer claims:
“There are no satisfied of status quo state; rather, all states are continuously searching for opportunities to gain power at the expense of other states…The states recognize that the best path to peace is to accumulate more power than anyone else…He concludes that the world is condemned to perpetual great power competition” (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008, P. 99).

Contrary to Waltz’s theory, Mearsheimer’s statement is more comprehensive and gives us a better explanation, when it comes to analyzing the behavior of Iran. From Mearsheimer’s statement, we can deduce that some issues such as anarchy, sense of uncertainty and the lack of a central authority in the international system force Iran to maximize its power. As a result, Iran’s power maximization behavior causes hostility and tension in different parts of the Middle East. However, this issue raises some other questions about the behavior of Iran in the region. Why Iran’s hostility is mainly focused on Israel and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East? Why Iran, so far, has not demonstrated any serious aggressive behavior against Turkey for example?
These are the questions, which Mearsheimer’s statement cannot answer them. However, these questions leads us to the point that in addition to Mearsheimer’s statement and more generally, the international distribution of power factor, some other elements should be considered, when it comes to analyzing the behavior of states. Some issues like this have raised many questions among realist scholars too, particularly, since the end of the cold war. These issues have motivated a group of realists to find a better and more comprehensive explanation about the behavior of states. This group of scholars, which Gideon Rose identified them as Neoclassical Realists, while acknowledges the basic assumptions of structural realists about the behavior of states, argues that there are some other factors at the individual and domestic level, which can influence the behavior of states in the international arena. These factors are “the perception of state leaders, state-society relationships, and the motivation of states” (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008, p. 99).
These factors can lead us to a better understanding of Iran’s activities abroad. In order to examine the compatibility of these factors with Iran’s behavior, it would be useful to have some knowledge about the mindset of Ayatollah Khomeini the founder of the Islamic Revolution. This knowledge can offer us better perspectives about some issues including: how the opinion of Khomeini has influenced the domestic issues in Iran, how he has perceived the international society and/ or politics, and finally, how Khomeini’s ideas has shaped and determined the destination of Iran’s activities abroad. Regarding these issues, David Armstrong argues:
“Khomeini challenged not just American power but the prevailing conception of international society. He believed the problems of the Middle East and other Muslim countries to have been caused by their disregard of Islamic religious principles and called for the overthrow of the illegitimate political powers that now rule the entire Islamic World and their replacement by religious government. More generally, he argued that not only were earthly governments illegitimate, but the states itself and the concept of nationality were equally invalid. …Khomeini insisted that the only important social identity for Muslims was their membership of the community of believers, or umma” (Armstrong, 2008, p. 49).

If we review the behavior of Iran in the international arena, particularly in the Middle East, we come up to the point that up until now, Iran exactly and progressively has pursued Khomeini’s statement during the past 34 years. Based on this theological doctrine, Iran has been continuously ignoring the legitimacy and sovereignty of other states and more generally, the international laws in different occasions. These types of behaviors indicate the fact that the religious factor plays an important role in Iran’s behavior not only in domestic arena but also in the international system. This issue confirms the reliability of neoclassical realism as Stephan Walt argues:”the causal logic of neoclassical realism places domestic politics as an intervening variable between the distribution of power and foreign policy behavior” (Dunne & Schmidt, 2008, P. 99).
From all above, we can deduce that, Iran’s non-stop hostile attitude against some states such as Israel and Saudi Arabia stems from its ideological characteristic (Shiite  Islam) and not only from the lack of balance of power in the region, as Waltz argues. This kind of hostility is unstoppable, irreversible, and irresistible characteristic, which is embedded in the political structure of Iran. This inherent character, irresistibly forces Iran to behave aggressively in the international arena (particularly against Saudi Arabia and Israel) and this process is more likely to continue in the future too. This characteristic has tremendous tendency towards expansion too, as the history of Iran’s behavior in the past 34 years has shown. During all these years, Iran has been trying to expand its influence and authority beyond its borders at the expense of other states. It seems unrealistic maybe, but different evidences indicate that Iran is pursuing a bigger plan in the Middle East, i.e. to become a religious regional hegemon. In order to achieve this goal, Iran should defeat Israel and Saudi Arabia; therefore, since the beginning, Iran’s hostility has been mainly focused on Israel and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. If Iran would manage to defeat these states, Iran would be able to have enormous authority over the strategic parts of the world. Consequently, the side effect of Iran’s effort in this direction causes continuous tension and instability in the region (Figure 1) (Sirani, 2012).       



Figure 1: Iran's activities in the Middle East (Sirani, 2012)

Red arrow: Iran's offensive activities in the Middle East.

Green arrow: Iran's final plan for the Middle East.

Black arrow: Saudi Arabia's offensive and defensive activities in response to Iran.





So far, to some extent, Iran has managed to implement some parts of its plan in the Middle East, particularly, since the US has officially withdrawn its troops from Iraq. The withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has created an excellent opportunity for Iran. Finally, for the first time and after 34 years effort, Iran has found a free transit road from its territory towards the borders of Israel. However, up until now, Saudi Arabia has managed to control Iran’s offensive behaviors in Bahrain and Yemen, but the main battle in Syria is continuing. Therefore, it would be hard to believe that Iran would halt its nuclear activities and withdraw its support for Syria. Because, these two particular issues are related to each other and both of them are the important parts of Iran’s plan for the Middle East. Based on all explained above, we can conclude that a nuclear-armed Iran not only would not provide instability in the Middle East, instead, it would offer Iran more power and opportunity to move faster towards its final destination i.e. the establishment of a religious regional hegemony, with more aggressive and offensive behaviors (Sirani, 2011, 2012).  
  
Conclusion:
In conclusion, I have to imply that the notion of peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activity is severely questionable and to some extent even refutable. The large amount of different natural resources and geographical advantages in the country, indicate that Iran is likely to obtain nuclear weapon. Moreover, different evidences, illustrate that contrary to Waltz’s theory, Iran is not a security maximizer state like any other states. Instead, the history of Iran’s activities abroad shows that Iran is an aggressive power maximizer state. The root cause of Iran’s aggressive behavior originates from its ideological characteristic. This is an unstoppable and irreversible characteristic, which causes hostility and consequently instability in the international arena. This religious characteristic, irresistibly forces Iran to expand its authority and influence, at the expense of other states and even more, its own security and people. As discussed in this paper, I found out that both defensive realism and to some degree offensive realism approach, was not able to explain the root cause of Iran’s aggressive behavior Contrary to these approaches, neoclassical realism could explain the behavior of Iran with more accuracy. In fact, the case of Iran proved that in addition to the distribution of power and security maximization, some other factors such as ideological characteristic of state leaders or political system and motivation of states are the important issues, which should be considered when it comes to analyzing the behavior of states. Based on all explained in this paper, I refute the idea of nuclear-armed Iran strongly, because Iran does not have the similar interest and ideology like any other current nuclear-armed states. Nuclear weapon might function as a deterrence and defensive factor for the current nuclear-armed countries, but it would not be logical and reasonable to generalize this assumption to a country like the Islamic Republic of Iran with such aggressive history. One last issue to mention is that almost all realist scholars including Kenneth Waltz argue that the lack of an overarching authority above states causes anarchy and instability in the world. This argument raises a serious question especially for those realists who defend the nuclear-armed Iran statement: If Iran would mange to become a member of the nuclear-armed countries, which powerful international authority would be able to control its hegemonic religious behavior ?     

Mehran Sirani                                                                  03.09.2012

Note: It should be mentioned that i wrote this essay during a 5 credits extensive course (August 2012) in the first month of beginning of my master program in International Relations. 



References:

Armstrong, D. (2008). The evolution of international society. In: Baylis, J. & Smith, S. & Owens, P. (4th ed). THE GLOBALIZATION OF THE WORLD POLITICS: An introduction to international relations, p. 36-52. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Baylis, J. (2008). International and global security. In: Baylis, J. & Smith, S. & Owens, P. (4th ed). THE GLOBALIZATION OF THE WORLD POLITICS: An introduction to international relations, p. 226-241. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Britannica. (2012). Dasht-e Kavir.
Accessed on: 20.08.2012

Britannica. (2012). Dasht-e Lut.
Accessed on: 20.08.2012

Buchta, W.  (2000). WHO RULES IRAN? : The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic. A Joint Publication of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.

Dunne, T. & Schmidt, B. (2008). Realism. In: Baylis, J. & Smith, S. & Owens, P. (4th ed). THE GLOBALIZATION OF THE WORLD POLITICS: An introduction to international relations, p. 90-106. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2010). IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NPT SAFEGUARDS AGREEMENT AND RELEVANT PROVISIONS OF SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN.
Accessed on: 17.08.2012.

Kepel, G. (2002). JIHAD:  THE TRIAL OF POLITICAL ISLAM. Translated by: Anthony F. Roberts, Published by THE BELKNAP PRESS OF HARVARD UNIVERSITY PRESS, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

PBS NEWSHOUR. (2012). The Upside of a Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Chat With Kenneth

Sirani, M. (2012). THE STRUCTURE OF POWER IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN. URL:  < http://ask.bibsys.no/ask/action/show?pid=121955931&kid=biblio>.
Accessed on: 18.08.2012.

Sirani, M.  (2012). WHEN A NATION DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THAT, THE WAR HAS BEGUN. URL: < http://www.akhbar-rooz.com/article.jsp?essayId=46402>.
Accessed on: 19.08.2012.  (This is a Persian language article about Iran’s activities in the Middle East including in Syria, which I published in the Persian websites).

Sirani, M. (2011). THE SHADOWS OF INTELLECTUALS' PAST MISTAKES ARE STILL HAUNTING US. URL: < http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=41795>.
Accessed on: 17.08.2012. (In this Persian language article, I have predicted the possibility of war between Iran and the West).

The World Factbook. (2012). IRAN.
Accessed on: 19.08.2012.
  



Friday, October 31, 2014

A New Historical Discovery About The Day That Israel Attacked America.

For those, who are interested about the historical events.



For watching the whole film, please visit the Aljazeera website by clicking the following link.

Link: http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/specialseries/2014/10/day-israel-attacked-america-20141028144946266462.html



M. Sirani                                       31.10.2014

Nuclear Deal or No Deal With Iran?

When it comes to the nuclear negotiation with the Iranian Regime at this stage, the representatives of the USA, UK, France and Germany should put their feet in the shoes of policy makers in Tehran for a moment and look at the situation as a whole in that perspective. What would they see and observe?

They see (From Iran's policy makers perspective) that Iran has built nearly 20 nuclear plants across the country (As far as the international community has discovered). The western countries cannot destroy all these nuclear plants with military strike, particularly when it comes to Fordow nuclear plant, which has been built nearly 90 meters deep under the ground. In addition, any military strike against Iran's nuclear plants would end up into a huge environmental catastrophe not only for Iran and the Iranian People but also for the all people in the region.

Moreover, the current military operation of the USA and its allies in Iraq and Syria is totally beneficial for Iran and Syria in different terms. These military operations, in addition, show clearly that the coalition is desperately trying to do something in Iraq and Syria, but they have absolutely no idea what the final point of these operations would be. The members of coalition does not have a clear and coherent strategy and tactic with regards to the current tension in Iraq and Syria. Some of them, for example Australia, wants to get rid off Assad's regime in Syria and at the same time, in a total contradiction, wants to cooperate with the Iranian force in Iraq against ISIS. Some like, Saudi Arabia wants to get rid of both regimes in Iran and Syria, but at the same time fight against ISIS in the favor of both Iranian and Syrian Regimes.

Furthermore, most of the western countries are struggling with some type of economic and political crisis in their own countries each to some extent. In the USA, for example, the republican party is going to seize the power from Democrats in different arena. Some of the EU countries are struggling with economic crisis. When it comes to foreign policy, most of the western countries are struggling with Russia, for example, due to current tension in Ukraine. So is the case of China in another term. The public opinion in the western countries is not ready for a military strike against Iran's nuclear plant at least at this stage. In sum, the list goes on in different social, cultural, economic, political and environmental terms in both domestic as well as international arena.

Based on the brief explanation noted above, if you were a policy maker in Tehran, would you accept a nuclear deal with the western countries as they wish?

If we honestly put our feet in the shoes of policy makers in Tehran, the right answer to this question would probably be a strong NO.



M. Sirani                                                31.10.2014        

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

The Friendly Chats of Turkish Border Guards and ISIS Fighters Near Kobane.

Can Turkey be a reliable member of NATO, a solid candidate member of EU, and a sincere member of the coalition forces in fight against ISIS?

In order to find a reasonable and logical answer for this question, watch the following videos.






Don't blame me when i say: we are living in the era of total confusion or President Obama's plan against ISIS needs a fundamental adjustment. 



M. Sirani                                       29.10.2014

Monday, October 27, 2014

When it Comes to Foreign Policy, the Iranian Regime Has Swallowed all of You, but Still You Don't Get it (27.10.2014).

Unbelievable Statement of Defense Minister of Australia, Senator David Johnston About Iran's Quds Force.

Don't blame me, when i say that we are living in the era of total confusion. The recent interview of Senator David Johnston, the current Defense Minister of Australia confirms my statement in an appropriate manner.

In an interview, which has been published in the Sydney Morning Herald, Mr. David Johnston stated that "Australian commandos may join with Iranian Quds in fight against Islamic State".

God bless Niccolo Machiavelli. If Machiavelli was alive, he could get extensive and comprehensive lectures in terms of the lack of moral and ethical principles in policy making, hypocrisy, not double standard but also multiple standard, and opportunism from some contemporary politicians.

I'm wondering:

1- Does Mr. Johnston has any idea about the activity of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its special force the Quds Force?

2- Has Mr- Johnston forgotten that some of the Australian troops and other Western countries forces have been killed and assassinated by Iranian Quds force in the last couple of years in Iraq and Afghanistan?

3-  Does Mr- Johnston's statement in this matter have any compatibility with the will, wish and the main goal of other members of the coalition in fight against ISIS?


In sum:
I suggest Mr. Johnston read the three following essays in my weblog. By reading these essays, he would be able to offer more reasonable and logical statements particularly, when it comes to the Iranian regime and its terror leverages.

1- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
 http://irancare.blogspot.no/2013/06/the-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps.html

2- The Structure of power in the Islamic Regime of Iran.
   http://irancare.blogspot.no/2012/11/the-structure-of-power-in-islamic.html

3- Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East.
http://irancare.blogspot.no/2014/09/obamas-plan-against-isis-fundamental_10.html


Honestly, you are shocking me with this type of statement or the controversial "shirt-front" statement with President Putin. It seems Australia is developing a new type of Foreign Policy.

As i have mentioned in my earlier posts repeatedly:
I wish a supreme power should shake the Earth strongly; maybe by that the Earth rotates in the right direction in the hand of right political figures.   



M. Sirani                             27.10.2014


Reference:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-commandos-may-join-with-iranian-quds-in-fight-against-islamic-state-20141027-11cl32.html

Beware of Unpleasant Future Events in Tunisia.

The international community, specially the United Nations, should carefully and cautiously follow the events in Tunisia. Based on many reasons, Tunisia might reach a critical point and total instability somewhere in the near future. Among these reasons, the weak political institutions, high rates of unemployment (averaged 15.39 percent), poverty, a severe fragmentation between secular and democrat political parties and neighboring with a failed state such as Libya could be mentioned. These problems indicate the fact that Tunisia has enough potentiality and tendency toward instability and unpredictable events.The combination of these domestic problems along with the ongoing rise of different Islamic Radical groups in the Middle East and some parts of Africa might lead the country toward a chaotic situation, possibly a civil war, somewhere in the near future; unless the secular and democratic parties seize the power and change the course of country in a positive and progressive manner.



M. Sirani                          27.10.2014

Saturday, October 25, 2014

A Final Solution for Iran's Nuclear Activity, Before Using Any Military Option.

I have developed a plan with regard to the current nuclear standoff between Iran and the Western countries. By performing this plan as a last effort, we might be able to fundamentally solve this problem in a peaceful and diplomatic manner.



M. Sirani                          25.10.2014

Friday, October 24, 2014

The Sweet Honeymoon For The Islamic Regime of Iran and Bashar Assad.

The current military operation of the coalition in both Iraq and Syria has created a pleasant honeymoon for both regimes in Iran and Syria. Both the Islamic Regime and Assad's regime are using buck passing tactic and enjoying all the efforts that the coalition is doing against ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria. What else should the politicians in Iran and Syria wish?

The lack of logical, reasonable and professional planing will create a beneficial outcome for Iran and Syria in the final stage of these military operations as well; of course, if these operations continue in the future the same as it is right now without any change or adjustment.

It would be wise that the coalition slows down its operation for a while and adjust its plan and operation with more accuracy and long term thinking in Iraq and most importantly in Syria as soon as possible; before it's too late.  Among these two countries, i emphasize on Syria based on many reasons including severe fragmentation and chaotic situation of the Syrian opposition.


M. Sirani                        24.10.2014

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

A Final Solution Might Exist For Iran's Nuclear Activity.

I have developed a plan. This plan might be the final solution for Iran's nuclear activity. By performing this plan, we might be able to solve the current nuclear standoff between Iran and the Western countries in a diplomatic and peaceful manner. When it comes to timing, the plan is still worth trying.




M. Sirani                       22.10.2014

Cluster Bombs Were Used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the Rebels and Civilians in Donetsk City.

According to Human Rights Watch, the Ukrainian army has used cluster munitions against the rebels in Donetsk city in its military attacks in October. As it appears, Ukraine has not ratified the Convention on Cluster Munitions Treaty adopted in Dublin in 2008, yet. But contrary to Ukraine, most of the EU countries have signed the treaty. In order to prevent the excessive collateral damage and provoking Moscow more than this, it would be wise for the EU countries to give a strong warning to the current Ukrainian authority in this matter. In addition, the Ukrainian authority should be notified to consider the Basic Principle of Proportionality in its war against the rebels. Moreover, the authority in Kiev should be held responsible for the violation of the international law and convention in this matter.


Note: The United Nations is on the Hibernation Mode in this matter as well. 




M. Sirani                      22.10.2014

Reference:
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/world/ukraine-used-cluster-bombs-report-charges.html?_r=0

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Exclusive: The Green Zone in Baghdad is Under the Mortar Shells Attack (21.10.2014).

This event, if it has been carried out by ISIS, shows that the so-called Systematic Counter Terrorism Strategy needs some serious adjustment. I hope those policy makers, who are involved in this matter, fix it as soon as possible; before it's too late.

More than two months heavy military air strikes performed by various countries on ISIS targets and after all these efforts performing such a act by ISIS clearly shows that there is something really, really, really wrong with your plan. This is a simple fact that every strategist, policy maker and decision maker should know it.


M. Sirani                                   21.10.2014

Friday, October 17, 2014

Do You have Any Idea What Are You Currently Doing in Iraq and Syria?

Based on my assumption from the last two months, i can say that the current policy of the coalition in both Iraq and Syria will be just beneficial for the Iranian Regime and nothing else.
I'm wondering do you really have any idea where are you heading? Do you have any idea what will be the consequences of your current action in the future? Who / which actor will benefit from your current action?



M. Sirani                    18.10.2014

Thursday, October 16, 2014

The Endless, Useless, and Unsuccessful Nuclear Negotiations With Iran.

Once again, the nuclear negotiation with Iran reached a dead-end alley.

The Iranian Regime's lobbies have been penetrating in every corner of the western societies and do their jobs in an efficient and comprehensive manner, while some of the western policy makers are still in the hibernation mode. You could have solved this problem many years ago in a peaceful and diplomatic manner, if you didn't delude yourself by listening to nonsense of some like Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mir Hussein Mousavi, Rouhani, Zarif and their lobbies, which are deeply penetrated in all your educational and foreign policy systems. When it comes to Iran's nuclear activity, you have reached the point of Too short, too little, too late.



M. Sirani               16.10.2014


Wednesday, October 15, 2014

DABIQ Magazine: One of the Important Propaganda Tools of ISIS.

Dabiq is the name of magazine that ISIS publishes once in a while. Those, who do not have any clue about ISIS, Islam, and the main goal of nearly all radical Islamic groups no matter Shiite, Sunni  and any other branches within Islam, should take a look at it. Those, who are interested, can visit the following link.

Important Note: I don't give any guarantee about the safety of the link and ISIS website in terms of virus, Trojan, or what so ever. The same as all of you, i don't trust this terrorist group at all. My intention to share this short note and the link is only to provide some basic knowledge and information about this barbaric and stone age organization for those, who are visiting my weblog regularly. Thus, i suggest you to visit the link with extra care and attention.       

The link: https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/islamic-state-e2809cdc481biq-magazine-2e280b3.pdf



M. Sirani                                      15.10.2014

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Turkish War Planes Bomb PKK Positions Near Iraq.

This event would damage the Turkish authority in both the domestic as well as international arena. When it comes to the international arena, by such a move, the Turkish authority shows that its first and important enemy is PKK rather than ISIS. The combination of this event, releasing 49 Turkish diplomats by ISIS along with the refusal of Turkey to help the trapped people in Kobane lead us to a perception that it might be a close relationship between ISIS and the Turkish authority behind the scene. This is an important development, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated by other members of the coalition.

In domestic arena, such a military move would intensify the tension between the kurds and the Turkish authority. This event, as a result, would inevitably deteriorate the shaky peace process between PKK and the Turkish government.

Instead of such a military move, Turkey could facilitate an opportunity for its kurdish citizens to help the people in Kobane. By such a move, the Turkish government could ease the tension with PKK in the one hand, and would increase its popularity among the Kurdish people not only within Turkey but also in the whole region on the other hand. This issue could increase the chance of a permanent peace agreement with PKK and put an end to more than thirty years war with the Kurdish rebels. Such a move, could also help the President Erdogan in performing his reforms in the domestic arena.

As it appears, however, the Turkish authority has decided to focus on its domestic short term goal rather than its long term domestic as well as international goals.



M. Sirani                           14.10.2014


Monday, October 13, 2014

ISIS Captured Al Anbar Province.

As the media claim, ISIS has seized Al-Anbar province. As a result, more than 180,000 citizens of the province have fled the area as the UN claims. This simply means, ISIS has full control over one of the Biggest Iraq's dam i.e. Alhadith and the ISIS fighters are closing to Baghdad. It should be added that if ISIS explodes Alhadith dam, the float of water would wash away Baghdad.



M. Sirani                      13.10.2014  

Honestly Admit it: You Don't have a Clear Strategy Against ISIS; Unless you have Developed a New definition for the term "Strategy".

Briefly: Literally strategy means a scientific method or an effective plan in order to achieve a certain goal somewhere in the future.
It's been nearly two months, since the beginning of the military operation against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. During this period of time, the U.S. authority has been spending nearly $10 million dollars daily in this war. Spending this amount of money could be applied to other members of the coalition; a coalition, which consists of 60 countries as the Secretary of State John Kerry and some other U.S. officials claim.

What was the result of your past two months efforts?
ISIS is progressively seizing new territories in both Iraq and Syria. You have not been able to form a so-called unity and inclusive government in Iraq. You have not been able to build and develop a reliable coordination among the members of the coalition. Turkey, your close allies in NATO, for example, would not cooperate in this battle; in addition would not give you a clear permission to use its territory against ISIS. This event happens at the time that the new NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg claims that: "NATO can put troops wherever it wants".

After two months war, you have begun talking about the necessity of ground forces. In this respect, you have also a serious problem; because the current prime minister of Iraq has repeatedly stated that they don't need any ground force from the coalition. Meanwhile, you are struggling with Iran in different battle fields. In one front, you are trying to control and neutralize Iran's adventurous nuclear activities. In another front, you are struggling to decrease the power and influence of  Iran in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. You don't have any clue how to deal with Iran in these different areas. The case of Syria itself is another dilemma for you.  At the same time, you are pushing Russia with regard to current tension in Ukraine. In this respect, you are blocking yourself within the circle of the United Nations Security Council, in case if you need any legal and legitimate approval.

Considering these examples, you are telling us that you have a clear strategy against ISIS!
If you don't have a clear strategy, which i think you don't have, please don't give a false hope to those poor citizens in Iraq and Syria. Instead open the borders in all neighboring countries and let those poor people take refuge over there and live like normal human beings.



M. Sirani                                13.10.2014


 


An Excellent New Discovery About Child Labor.

"It is not poverty that creates child labor. It is the opposite".

Are you shocked? So, don't be. You might wonder why?
Because, firstly,  this is not my statement. Secondly, this is the latest genius statement of Nobel Peace Laureate Kailash Satyarthi, who has fought to end the child labor in India for more than two decades.

In an interview with Aftenposten, a Norwegian newspaper, Mr. Satyarthi stated that:

"Det er ikke fattigdom som skaper barnearbeid. Det er motsatt" (Aftenposten, 2014).

The exact translation of Mr. Satyarthi's word by word would be the following:
It is not poverty that creates child labor. It is the opposite.

Following reading this article some ideas came to my mind.

1- The UNICEF should produce couple of thousands frames from Mr. Satyarthi's statement written by Golden Ink and hang one copy in every shanty towns around the world; a place that the children of some people such as Bill Gates and Warren Buffett can clearly see and read it and do not let their parents force them to work.

2- As it appears, the Noble Peace committee does not have enough time to perform a serious and appropriate research about different suggested candidates. That's why, once in a while, the members of Nobel Peace Prize Committee shoot themselves in their respective foot by choosing strange and peculiar candidates. In this respect, i offer my fully Pro Bono assistance to the Nobel Peace Committee.

3- I strongly suggest Mr. Satyarthi to put his statement in a simple cause and effect formula; and see how it functions.


Is there any hope for human race? I really don't think so.


M. Sirani                                     13.10.2014

Reference:
Aftenposten (2014). http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/Det-er-ikke-fattigdom-som-skaper-barnearbeid-Det-er-motsatt-7741019.html

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Save Kobane by Heli-Boarding Some Well- Armed Iraqi Kurds to the Area; Do not Waste the Time.

I'm wondering where are those Military Generals in this so-called coalition, which consists of nearly 60 countries???

Are you scared of the reaction of Syrian Regime by performing such a plan? If this is the case, you have already violated the sovereignty and air space of Syria by your military air operations.

Are you scared of deploying Iraqi Kurds as some foreign fighters, who put their boats on the ground in Syria and the reaction of Assad's Regime? If this is the case, Syria has been and still is a heaven for foreign fighters from the whole world since four years ago. Thus, deploying some Iraqi Kurds to Kobane would not be a serious problem for the Syrian authority.

When it comes to monetary terms, this plan is also much cheaper than every flight that you are performing above Kobane on daaily bases.


Deploy couple of hundreds well-armed and professional Iraqi Kurd fighters by chinnok to the area and save Kobane.

Otherwise, face the  consequences of creation of an independent Kurdish State in the south of Turkey and North of Iraq in the near future.   

You are shocking me. What is wrong with you? What are you waiting for?


Note: It seems some policy makers at the international level need a simple lecture about "How to use the entire sources in order to achieve some certain goal?". 



M. Sirani                         09.10.2014

Exclusive: A Temporary Solution To Save Kobane.

Kobane and what happens currently in this city might not be an important issue for the Turkish authority based on many reasons. But saving Kobane and its citizens should be a priority at this stage for the coalition. The people in Kobane are struggling to defeat ISIS and save the city; These are the types of forces, who are fighting ISIS on the ground; these are the people that the coalition are desperately looking for. The coalition should not let them alone.

At the present time:

1- The Turkish authority neither sends its ground forces to save Kobane, nor gives a free corridor to the Iraqi Kurds to join the people in Kobane and fight ISIS.

2- The Iraqi Kurds will strongly help the people in Kobane, but they cannot do it by their own; due to the fact that firstly, Turkey would not give them free corridor. Secondly, they cannot enter into the Syrian territory directly from Iraq because of ISIS territory and forces.

3- The coalition will not deploy its ground forces to the area because of many reasons, which are beyond of this short note.

These are the main barriers at the present time. But there is a temporary solution, which would bypass the Turkish territory and authority and at the same time save Kobane from ISIS attack.

The temporary solution is Heli-Boarding the Iraqi Kurds to Kobane. The coalition can carry some professional Kurdish fighters, armed with some anti-tank weapons for example, from Iraq to Syria by helicopters. By such a move, we would be able to save Kobane and its citizens, until the coalition would find a fundamental solution. This is the best possible temporary solution at this critical stage.   

We should not let Kobane fall in the hands of ISIS terrorists; we should prevent another genocide. 


M. Sirani                                 09.10.2014

What Did the International Community Miss Following the Latest Chemical Attack in Syria?


Undoubtedly, the latest chemical attack in Syria (on 21.08.2013) was one of the best historical moments, which we could find a reasonable solution for the devastating civil war in this country. If we did respond that horrible event in an appropriate and professional manner, we would have been managed to avoid many devastating events including the rise and strengthening of a brutal and barbaric organization like ISIS. Here below is the copy of my article following that chemical attack. It should be mentioned that i developed this plan just two days after the chemical attack and finally published the whole plan on my weblog on 07.09.2013; when i did not hear any proper reply.


M. Sirani                            09.10.2014

A Plan That Might Save The World From An Additional Disaster.

How should we deal with the recent chemical attack in Syria?


The G20 summit in Russia ended without any agreement among the world leaders with regard to the Syrian conflict. Part of the disagreement at this stage derives from different opinions between the US and Russia over the recent chemical attack in Syria and how the international community should deal with this horrific and inhuman act. This event, however, has fragmented the international community into three different groups as follows.

1-     A group of countries such as the US, France, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which claims that the international community should launch a military strike on Syria because of this chemical attack. Among this group, the two countries of the US and France have decided to unilaterally launch a military strike on Syria somewhere in the near future.

2-     A group of countries such as Russia, China, India, Argentina and South Africa, which are against any unilateral military action against Syria. Among this group, Russia has openly announced that it will fully assist Syria in case of any military strike without U.N. Security Council backing.

3-     A group of neutral countries such as some members of the EU, the Arab League which claim that any decision in this matter should be made within the United Nation Security Council.

These differences have dragged the international community into another deadlock. This issue raises some questions as follows. What should we do? How would we be able to break the current deadlock and at the same time respond the alleged chemical attack in an appropriate manner based on the current international laws, rules and norms? How would we be able to ease the tension in Syria? And finally, is there any other plan, which would be able to address all the questions mentioned above in a proper way? Regarding the current deadlock in the Syrian crisis, I have developed a plan, which might address all the issues mentioned above. Before I proceed further, however, I have to admit that this is the first draft; as such, it might need more improvement and modification.

- The First Draft of the Plan:  

The plan includes different steps. All these steps should be performed and implemented parallel to each other by a joint committee consists of some representatives from the members of the United Nation Security Council, the Syrian government, the United Nation and possibly a representative from a neutral country like Norway for example; otherwise, we would end up in another dead-end alley in this crisis.  

1- First step: The joint committee would establish a temporary ceasefire between Asad’s regime and the opposition in Syria up until the end of this plan. The establishment a ceasefire is not an easy task, but it is not impossible (I fully aware that the terrorist groups are exception in this matter and they don’t follow this process). By this move, we can decrease the collateral damage and the new waves of refugees and internally displaced people.  

2- The second step: The US and France would agree to postpone their unilaterally military strike on Syria up until the end of this plan.

3- The third step: The Syrian government, in return, would agree to fully cooperate by all means with the joint committee from the beginning up until the last step of this plan without any delay, sabotage or nonchalant attitude.

4- The fourth step: Both the Syrian government and the opposition blame each other for the recent chemical attack. In this respect, the joint committee would deploy some experts to visit the chemical attack sites, in order to identify the perpetrators of the chemical attack.

5- The fifth step: The Syrian government would agree to extradite the perpetrators (no matter who they are) to the joint committee, if the committee found out that Asad’s regime has been behind this horrific act. The perpetrators of this horrible act should face a fair and lawful justice (I fully aware that Syria has not accepted the compulsory jurisdiction of ICC or ICJ). 

6- The sixth step: The existence of massive chemical weapons in Syria is a serious threat for the Syrian people and the international community, particularly at this critical moment; when the country is experiencing a devastating civil war; when different terrorist groups have involved in this civil war. Moreover, the Syrian authority should understand a simple fact that it cannot use any of these chemical weapons against its opponents or enemies under any circumstances. Any attempt at this direction is equivalent with massive and broad military intervention  on Syria and consequently the collapse of Asad's regime in less than a month. In such a event, the two super powers of Russia and China would not damage their reputation in the international arena by helping Asad's regime. Thus, it would be wise to get ride of these weapons of mass destruction. At this step, the Syrian authority would agree to destroy all its chemical weapons under the observation of some representatives from the joint committee (I fully aware that Syria is not a member of CWC). 

7- The seventh step: The two countries of Russia and China would agree to neutrally cooperate with the joint committee from the beginning up until the last step of this plan. Russia and China, moreover, would agree to don’t paralyze the Security Council by their vetoes, if Asad’s regime doesn’t fulfill its responsibilities based on all policies mentioned above. To put its simply, by this move, the Security Council would be free to take any reasonable and necessary action against the Syrian regime, based on the international law in case that Syria doesn't cooperate (Effect on Public Opinion).  

By implementing these steps, we would be able to save the world from another additional catastrophic event. As explored above, through this plan we would be able to:

1-     Ease the tension to some extent at the local, regional and international level.

2-     Perform the justice with regard to the perpetrators of this inhuman and barbaric act.

3-     Minimize the serious threat of the massive chemical weapons accumulated in Syria.

4-     Break the current deadlock in the international system.

5-     Increase the level of cooperation between the states in the international arena.

6-     Empower the authority of the United Nation and its powerful entity i.e. the Security Council.

7-     Teach a good and clear lesson to possible violators of the international law and rules in an appropriate and lawful manner.

8-     Decrease the collateral damage and the new waves of refugees and internally displaced people in Syria.

9-     Facilitate a basic foundation for a diplomatic solution for the Syrian crisis.

This was brief explanation about this part of my plan for the Syrian civil war. Unfortunately, I cannot disclose the whole plan in this weblog; but I’m ready to present it to an official and reliable type of authority in order to save the lives of millions Syrian people. In the final part, we should bear in mind that any military intervention at this stage not only does not solve the conflict; instead, it would intensify the scope and dimension of this conflict into other areas in the Middle East. Thus, let us be reasonable; let us do not make another hasty decision; let us be smart, brave and use this disastrous event and turn it into a golden historical event, which is beneficial for all of us in the long term. In sum, I believe that following this plan and one month delay for a military strike on Syria do not damage the credibility of any state or anyone. We should bear in mind that: there is always room for a military intervention at any moment, but there is not always a possibility for a diplomatic solution at any moment.

M. Sirani                                    07.09.2013

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Iran's Red Lines in Nuclear Negotiation as Ayatollah Khamenei Has Outlined.


The website Farda News (Iran's news agency) has published an article about Iran's red lines with regards to the nuclear negotiation. The red lines, which consist of eleven important points, have been outlined by the supreme leader Khamenei. Here below is a copy of this diagram. It should be added that the details in this diagram are in Persian language and should be translated.      






M. Sirani                                    08.10.2014




Reference:
Iran's red lines in nuclear negotation (2014). URL:< http://www.fardanews.com/fa/news/372262/اینفوگرافیکخطوط-قرمز-مذاکره>. Accessed on: 08.10.2014.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

I don't believe to astrology or prediction of an event in the future based on some type of dream or nightmare. But with high probability, i can say that the next president of the USA will be a Republican; unless a fundamental miracle happens in the foreign policy of the Obama administration in the next two years. If the Republican party chooses good and smart candidate and vice president (Not someone like Sara Palin; with all due respect to her), the party will win the next election by highest margin.

In short, i'm not a fan of Republican party or Neocon group or so-called warmongers. But, when it comes to the foreign policy, we (most of the people around the world) knew what the President Bush did want; we knew where his foreign policy would end up; we knew what was his main objective in every move. But with the Obama administration such a prediction is almost impossible. The administration moves first and then in the middle of the way stop in order to find a solution. In this respect, different examples could be mentioned. The latest chemical attack in Syria, which took place on 21.08.21013 is an example; when the President said the U.S. would attack Syria and later he changed his decision.

The recent unnecessary tension in Ukraine is another example. Such an unnecessary tension, which was based on wrong analysis and miscalculation of the administration has dragged Ukraine into a devastating and destructive civil war. This event, in addition, has caused many economic, political and social problems for Ukraine and the whole EU in different scales. Who/ how/when do you want to solve the problem in Ukraine? What did you achieve in this conflict so far?

The current war against ISIS is another example of mismanagement and miscalculation of the Obama administration. The administration has begun a war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and it has called it "Systematic Counter Terrorism Strategy". But there are lots of flaw and ambiguity in this plan as i have discussed some of them in my short essay entitled: Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East. As i follow the news, i have come to the conclusion that this is not a Counter Terrorism Strategy, because words including "Strategy" have their own meaning and definition. What we are witnessing in Iraq and Syria are just some sudden tactical military operations in Iraq and Syria without any real future perspective.

The same as other examples mentioned above, the administration has begun with some move in Iraq and Syria; but they don't know where exactly they are going. They have started the war; but in the Middle of the way they have come up with the idea that they need ground forces; because the air strikes alone do not function properly. They have started the war in a hope that the moderate Syrian opposition gain the momentum on the ground against Assad's Regime; but in the middle of the way they have understood that the Syrian moderate opposition does not have proper capacity to do that. So is the case of Iraqi forces. So is the case of members of the coalition. Some of them have supported the ISIS and Al-Nusra front in different terms for many years. Now, they are members of a coalition against ISIS. Some like Turkey performs prisoners swap with ISIS, while innocent American and English journalists and aid workers such as Alan Henning would be beheaded by ISIS, etc.  

Based on all mentioned above and many other examples, i predict that the next president of the USA will be a Republican. 

Foreign policy based on spontaneous and impulsive decision would undoubtedly end up to a huge fiasco.   


Sirani                              07.10.2014

Do Not Let Kobane Fall in the Hands of ISIS in Order to Punish PKK.

Do not punish those innocent people in Kobane because of PKK; this is a huge mistake and will mostly impact Turkey in different terms.

Briefly: The Turkish authority will lose a lot in this particular matter. In case of such an event, the Turkish authority should firstly forget the peace agreement with PKK for many years to come. Secondly, President Erdogan will lose some of its support (Kurdish people) in domestic arena including within Turkey's Parliament . As a result, he will once again fail to reform the constitution in order to increase his power as the President.



M. Sirani                         07.10.2014 

Monday, October 6, 2014

Saturday, October 4, 2014

An Important Consideration with Regards to the Case of Mr. Alan Henning and other Western Hostages.

In addition to creating the atmosphere of fear,horror, chaos and uncertainty, hostage taking is one of the main sources of income for every radical Islamic groups in the Middle East and North Africa. Although, some western authorities do not negotiate with hostage takers in any hostage crisis, there are some NGO or private donors in the West that would try to pay a large amount of ransom in order to free their hostages. In case of any hostage crisis, we usually focus on three important points as follows.
1- Who has been held hostage?
2- Who is/are the hostage takers?
3- What is the demand and motivation of the hostage takers?

These are the important points with regards to any hostage crisis, but not enough. In addition to these issues some other important measures should be seriously considered at home i.e. the country of origin of the one, who has been held hostage. In case of an innocent hostage like Alan Henning, for example, the British authority should perform an in-depth and broad research about the Islamic Charity organization that Mr. Henning worked with. In this respect, this Islamic Charity Organization, its members, contacts and assets should be analyzed in an appropriate and comprehensive manner. There might be a third person (i emphasize; there might be) within this charity organization located in the UK that directly or indirectly has close contact with hostage takers In Syria. Such a person might have been given clear information about the time of departure, arrival and location of Mr. Henning to the hostage takers in Syria. Such a person and alike, in sum, plays the role of a covert agent in the Western countries. Such a covert agent might work as a simple employee, a translator, a guide, a donor within these NGOs or charity organizations and give information to hostage taker in special parts of the Middle East and North Africa based on two monetary or ideological reasons. My argument in this particular case (the case of Mr. Henning) might not be 100% true, but the possibility of such a act is something, which neither be ignored nor underestimated.


M. Sirani                           04.10.2014    

Thursday, October 2, 2014

The Shadow of NATO on Iraq and Syria.

It seems NATO is gradually preparing to be involved in Iraq and Syria. I hope my prediction would be wrong in this particular case.


M. Sirani                    02.10.2014