The Latest Claim About Iran's Aircraft Carrier.

In an interview with Mashregh News Agency, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi said that Iran's aircraft carrier will be used for some military maneuvers somewhere in the future. In this interview, Admiral Ali Fadavi strongly rejects the idea that this aircraft carrier has been made for a movie as some news agency in the region claimed.

In sum, there are quite a few flaws in Fadavi's claim, when he says that this aircraft has been made just for some military maneuvers. As such, i re-upload once again my previous note about Iran's aircraft carrier. I believe this is an important issue that should neither be ignored nor underestimated. Here below is my earlier short note in this matter.


M. Sirani                          25.04.2014

Iran’s Aircraft Carrier

As the media reveal, Iran is building an aircraft carrier. The construction of this warship, which has been first discovered from some satellite photos in the last summer, is taking place at the Gachin shipyard, near Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf. As the photos show and according to some intelligence analysts, Iran's warship has the same shape and style of the American Nimitz-Class aircraft carrier. This issue has raised some speculations among many Western intelligence and military experts.

Regarding this vessel, Cmdr. Jason Salata, a spokesman for the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, claims:
“Based on our observations, this is not a functioning aircraft carrier; it’s a large barge built to look like an aircraft carrier”. Furthermore, Cmdr. Jason Salata states:  
“We’re not sure what Iran hopes to gain by building this. If it is a big propaganda piece, to what end?” (1).

Some other American Navy and intelligence analysts call the vessel a mock ship and claim that the construction of this warship is Iran's new military deception tactic. This group of experts generally believe that following the completion, Iran would move the vessel to the Sea and blow it up, while filming the explosion event, in order to make a propaganda movie against the West, in case that the nuclear negotiations within P3+3 group would fail and reach a dead end. From this type of statement, we can deduce that Iran might use this propaganda movie in order to show to the world that a high technological military vessel such as an American aircraft carrier is vulnerable and defeatable in the Persian Gulf, in case of any military confrontation between Iran and the West.

In response to these statements, a few explanations should be mentioned. Firstly, Iran is not the only country in the world that uses different military tactics including military deception method in order to foster an atmosphere of doubt, fear and hysteria among its enemies. This is obvious that Iran has used such tactics in the past and will undoubtedly use it in the future as well. But Iran's intention behind the construction of such a vessel might not be identified as pure military deception tactic based on different reasons including: the size, shape, time, energy and costs of the construction of such a warship. We should not forget that the construction of a huge vessel such as an aircraft carrier cannot be compared with construction of a drone or a tank or a warplane in different terms.

Secondly, based on my knowledge, Iran does not need such a huge, time consuming and costly project just in order to make a propaganda film to show that an American aircraft carrier is vulnerable and defeatable at the Persian Gulf. One might wonder why? This is a Christal clear point that Iranian Navy would not be able to compete with the American highly technological and equipped Navy. But we should not forget that Iran's missile and rocket industries have had huge developments in the last couple of years in terms of power, range and precision. I believe at the present time, Iran is easily capable to target any object at the Persian Gulf with its surface-to-surface long and middle range rockets and missiles from its territory.

In this respect, a high technological military defense system such as the American Iron Dom system might not be able to respond and dismantle such an attack in an appropriate way. The recent wave of rocket attacks, which were fired from Gaza to Israel, confirms my statement to some extent. The Israeli Iron Dom defense system could not detect and dismantle all the rockets and as a result some of the rockets reached the targets in the Israeli territory. Such an event would / might occur for an American aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf as well; of course, in case of a military confrontation with Iran. Thus, it would be wise to avoid "The Mirror Imaging" perception in this matter. At this juncture an important and additional issue should be mentioned. That is Iran's intention behind such rocket attacks on Israel. In fact, Iran is trying to test the weakness and strength points of the Iron Dom defense system through such a sudden rocket attack on Israel.

Thirdly, some experts claim that Iran wants to blow up the so-called Nimitz maket, while filming the explosion event, in order to make a propaganda movie. By this, Iran might tell the world that it has dismantled the American aircraft carrier Nimitz. This is not a realistic and good scenario based on many reasons. For example, What would Iran do, when the vessel Nimitz take a position in the Persian Gulf or in the international water? What would Iran do, when the international media show a 5 minutes live clip about Nimitz? Such an event would be a huge scandal for Iran.

Fourthly, as it appears some of the western intelligence and military experts do not take Iran seriously not only in this matter but also in other arenas. As it noted above, for example, Cmdr. Jason Salata claims that the vessel is not functioning at the present time or some other experts call the vessel a mock ship. As these statements illustrate, it seems most of the Western analysts underestimate Iran's ability and capability. This type of perception about the Iranian Regime is totally wrong. For example, Cmdr. Salata claims that the vessel does / might not function at the present time. That’s true; but that does not mean that the vessel will not function in the future too. There are different examples, which show that Iran has surprised the international community in various terms in different occasions through the last 35 years. So might be the case of current war ship.

As an example, i refer to one of Ayatollah Khomeini's statements, when he in the beginning of Iran and Iraq war said: “The road to Qods (Jerusalem) passes through Karbala". 
What was our reaction in 1988, when Iran signed the peace agreement with Iraq after eight years war? As Ayatollah Khomeini himself said, we claimed that Khomeini drank the poison and Iran lost the war. What is Iran's current position in Iraq? Iran has conquered Iraq in the sense that the USA and its allies forced to leave the country. In addition to Iraq, Iran has expanded and strengthened its influence in Syria and Lebanon as well. To put it simply, through all these years, Iran has precisely followed Khomeini's statement. Another example is the case of Iran's nuclear activity and Iran's developments in this matter. Where did stand Iran 20 years ago with regard to uranium enrichment? Where does Iran stand now? Did we think that one day Iran  might be able to build a nuclear facility such as Fordo plant almost 90 meters below the surface?

All these examples indicate that we should not underestimate Iran's ability and capability in any direction including the current warship or the so-called "the mock ship". Otherwise, we might be surprised once again by the Iranian Regime. In sum, i think Iran might have a serious and long term plan for this war ship; something, which is directly related to its nuclear activity. Iran might try to use this issue in order to be able to continue with its uranium enrichment program at a level that can be used for a nuclear aircraft carrier. Such an event would empower Iran's military capability and in addition would facilitate an undercover opportunity for Iran to pursue its main goal; obtaining nuclear weapon.



M. Sirani                                22.03.2014



Reference:

(1) http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/world/middleeast/a-ship-being-built-in-iran-looks-awfully-familiar-to-the-us.html?smid=fb-nytimes&WT.z_sma=WO_ISI_20140321&bicmp=AD&bicmlukp=WT.mc_id&bicmst=1388552400000&bicmet=1420088400000&_r=0

The United Nations is Enjoying The Hibernation Mode; Instead of Solving all the Conflicts Around the Globe.

We are observing a large numbers of conflicts around the world. South East Asia suffers from different territorial conflicts mainly between China, Japan, and South Korea. The nuclear tests of North Korea have caused massive fear and insecurity for the neighboring countries in the region. Most of the countries in the Middle East are struggling either with the growing number of Islamic fundamentalist groups or struggle of power with each other or rapid militarization and arms race. The shadow of nuclear armed Iran is going to cover the sky of the whole region. The civil war in Syria has forced couple of millions people to leave the country and take refuge in different neighboring countries. Some countries such as Iraq and Lebanon are suffering from a broad conflict between different Shiite and Sunni groups. After nearly 60 years, still the conflict between Israel and Palestine has not been solved. Egypt is struggling with the Muslim Brotherhood. The authorities in Yemen cannot defeat Al Qaeda and other Islamic Fundamentalist groups. After more than 35 years, still Afghanistan is the save haven for Islamic fundamentalist groups and drug dealers.

The situation in Africa is worse. The ordinary people are suffering in Nigeria, Mali, Somalia, South and North Sudan, Niger, etc.
All these examples raise some serious questions as follows. Where is the United Nations? What is the role of the United Nations with regard to all these conflicts? Why the UN is not able to do anything about all these conflicts? and furthermore; if the UN cannot do anything about these conflicts, what is the benefit of the UN?
Do we need a huge international organization like the UN that cannot solve our problems?

We have entered a new era. Most of the international organizations and institutions belonged to the previous era. As such, these international organizations and institutions cannot solve our contemporary problems. These international institutions do not function properly anymore. We should not be genius to understand this simple fact. We should dismantle and shut down all these useless international organizations. We need a fundamental revolution in this matter. We need some new international institutions.


M. Sirani                          24.04.2014

Hamas - Fatah Reconciliation, A Disastrous Event For Israel and Peace Talks in the Middle East.

Briefly:
I'm neither a fan of an Islamic fundamentalist group such as Hamas, nor a corrupt political group like Fatah. In my opinion, both of these groups cannot provide peace, prosperity and stability neither within Palestine nor in the relationship between Palestine and Israel. The unity between these two groups might ease the tension temporarily within Palestine, but this event could be understood as a huge disaster for Israel as well.
To put its simply, this reconciliation would be a strong nail in the coffin of peace process between Israel and Palestine.

The policy makers in Israel missed a good opportunity during the last three years. One might wonder, which opportunity? Here is the story. Since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, most of the Arab states in the region including Hamas itself, have begun supporting the Syrian opposition against Assad's Regime i.e. Iran's closest ally in the region. Israel could use this event as a common ground and make a reasonable and peaceful deal with Palestine. As such, Israel would have been able to firstly, isolate the Islamic Regime, Assad's Regime and Hamas to some extent by this move. Secondly, Israel would have been able to improve its relationship with other Arab States in the region to a large extent. If the policy makers in Israel had moved in this way, now Israel would have had only one major problem in the region and that was the Islamic Regime of Iran. To put it simply, Israel would have used its resources in one battlefield with the Islamic Regime, instead of three battlefields with Iran, Hamas, and Palestine (Fatah).

Unfortunately, Israel has not done in this way. Let us see what would happen now.
Hamas and Fatah have united. This means, simply, Israel should use extra resources because its enemies have become stronger. In addition, we should not forget, that Hamas has been designated as a terrorist group by some of the Western countries as well. Such a characteristic would make the peace process talks between Israel and Palestine much more difficult than before. Another issue is Hamas's ideological characteristic. The chance that Hamas would change its ideological characteristic is very low or we might say is almost zero. Such a characteristic would undoubtedly influence the domestic and foreign policy of the Palestinian Authority to some extent. Such an event would automatically and negatively impact Israel in different terms. Moreover, we should not forget that in the last couple of months and weeks, the Islamic Regime has profoundly improved its relationship with Hamas. This means, simply, that such a reconciliation would facilitate a good opportunity for the Islamic Regime in both Gaza Strip and West Bank.

In sum, Israel did not make a reasonable and peaceful deal with Palestine during the last three years. Now, Israel should struggle with organized and re-conciliated enemies such as Hamas, Fatah, the Islamic Regime of Iran and Assad's Regime. From this, we can deduce that Iran would gain a lot from this event not only within Palestine against Israel, but also with regard to the current civil war In Syria to some extent. To put it simply, Iran is gradually surrounding Israel from different directions. Therefore, this reconciliation could be understood as a huge disaster for Israel, in my opinion.


M. Sirani                                     23.04.2014

Don't Push Russia Too Far; Ukraine Might Totally Lose Its Accessibility To Black Sea and Azov Sea.

Don't Push Russia Too Far; Ukraine Might Totally Lose Its Accessibility To Black Sea and Azov Sea.

During the last couple of weeks, I have repeatedly written some short notes about the wrong policy of the Western countries in Ukraine and its possible negative consequences. As it appears, still the current Western politicians do not have a logical and reasonable analysis about the current tension in Ukraine and more importantly, most of them underestimate the power and leverage of Russia in this matter.

If the combination of the Western countries, the current Ukrainian interim government, the ethnic Russians, who live in Ukraine, and Russia would not be able to find a diplomatic solution for this conflict as soon as possible, Ukraine would undoubtedly experience a devastating civil war. The result of this civil war would not be pleasant for neither the West, nor Ukraine. In such a scenario, Russia would be the main winner based on many reasons. Russia has enough leverages to divide Ukraine into two separated parts of 1- North-West Ukraine (Pro-West), and 2- East-South Ukraine (Pro-Russia). 

This means simply that the current Ukraine might lose its accessibility to Black Sea and Azov Sea. This is the ultimate and final goal of Russia, if it would not be able to preserve its interest in Ukraine.


M. Sirani                                    23.04.2014    

The Fourth Political Theory; Euroasianism Developed By Alexander Dugin.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS Magazine has recently published an article entitled "Putin's Brain" written by Anton Barbashin and Hannah Thoburn. The article explores The Fourth Political Theory (Euroasianism) developed by Alexander Dugin (a Russian thinker) and claims that Russia's invasion in Crimea is based on Dugin's theory.

I'm not defending the article and I'm not a follower or fan of Alexander Dugin. But since the Forth Political Theory is a newly developed idea (as far as i know), we should have a deeper and more comprehensive knowledge about it.
According to Dugin, we have entered a new era. As such some old theoretical assumptions such as Liberalism, Marxism, fascism, nationalism are not able to define the contemporary world affairs in different terms in an appropriate manner. As i have understood, Dugin claims: this is "The End of The World" for previous political theories. But Dugin does not say his theory is the so-called "the Last Standing Man". Dugin's theory seems to be a combination of regionalism, traditionalism and to some extent Heideggerian philosophy.

Understanding this theory is important for different fields of Social Sciences, because its definition and explanation cover broad characteristics of contemporary human society. I believe all scholars and students in International Relations, Political Science, Political Economy, and Sociology should have a basic knowledge and understanding about this theory.

Here below is the link of the article.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141080/anton-barbashin-and-hannah-thoburn/putins-brain


M. Sirani                              17.04.2014                

Exclusive: The Current Wrong Policy of West and NATO Will End UP in a Huge Fiasco in Ukraine.

I don't have enough time to explore this issue in details. But some policies such as NATO enforcement, or military maneuvers in the Baltic Sea or Black Sea do not solve anything at all in Ukraine. Such provocative military operations, instead, would encourage the ethnic Russians to be more radical in their demands. Such a military environment would also facilitate a better opportunity for Russia to intervene in Ukraine as well. I hope those policy makers in NATO would calculate all the details of the current military operation and understand an important point. The important point is that they are not directly fighting with Russian army in Ukraine. Such a characteristic would make the operation very complicated for NATO in different terms.

My anticipation is that the current wrong policy of the West and NATO would end up in a huge fiasco in Ukraine.


M. Sirani                    16.04.2014

Gunmen Abducted About 200 School Girls in Nigeria. Shame on Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Texaco, Total and Agip Oil Companies.

As CNN reports, the school girls were sleeping in their dormitories, when the attack occurred. During this attack, which took place last Monday, the heavily armed Boko Haram Islamists attacked the Government Girls Secondary School in Chibok. During this horrific event, nearly 200 innocent school girls were abducted by Boko Haram gunmen.


This is a scandalous and shameful event not only for corrupt and undemocratic Nigerian government, but also for those multinational oil companies that have close economic relationship with Nigerian authority. Among these multinational oil companies Royal Dutch Shell (British-Dutch), Chevron-Texaco (American), Exxon-Mobil (American), Agip (Italian), Total (French) could be mentioned.


This barbaric and inhuman act raises some questions as follows.
1- Who is/are the main responsible person or entity for such a horrific act?

2- Who should we blame?

3- Should we blame the Boko Haram organization alone?

4- Or should we blame the corrupt and undemocratic Nigerian government?

5- what is the role of all multinational oil companies in this matter?

6- Do these western multinational oil companies support and assist the corrupt and undemocratic Nigerian government or not?

7- Do we have the right to blame the Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron-Texaco, Exxon-Mobil, Agip, Total in this matter or not?

8- Do we have the right to blame Dutch, British, American, French and Italian governments in this matter or not?

9- Should the Dutch, British, American, French and Italian governments feel responsible in this matter or not?

10- Should these states have a little bit control about the activities of their multinational oil companies in Nigeria and other third world countries or not?

11- How can we trust these states, when they are talking about human rights and democratic values, while they are supporting every damn undemocratic political system around the world because of oil, gas and other natural resources?

And many other questions.

Briefly, I don't put the blame on the Nigerian government or the Boko Haram alone. I put the blame mainly on Dutch, British, American, French and Italian authorities, Because they have closed their eyes on the activities of these multinational oil companies in Nigeria. Shame on those states and multinational oil companies that are supporting and assisting the undemocratic and corrupt Nigerian government because of the exploitation of natural resources in Nigeria.
These states and multinational oil companies are indirectly the collaborators in this horrific act. 

 



M. Sirani                   16.04.2014

Warning: Be Aware of the Russian Military Airplanes and Helicopters in the Eastern Part of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian interim government has decided to disarm the ethnic Russians through a military confrontation. In this respect, some military tanks are waiting for a order from Kiev to move toward some cities in the eastern part of Ukraine. Using such a high-tech military equipment in order to disarm the ethnic Russians is not a pleasant event for Kremlin. Should this happen, Russia would retaliate. The Russian retaliation might not be a broad ground invasion at this stage. But there is some probability that Russia uses some of its military airplanes or helicopters and target the Ukrainian military tanks in the eastern part of Ukraine. This is something that the Ukrainian interim government should be aware of it.


M. Sirani                              15.04.2014

Briefly: Do Not Use Excessive Pressure With Regard to current tension in Ukraine; Be Careful About The Future of The New START Treaty.

I hope the current policy makers around the world think about this issue, while they are developing any plan for Ukraine. 

M. Sirani                        15.04.2014

Do not Underestimate Putin; Russia Has Massive leverages to Use Not Only Within Ukraine But Laso at Regional and Global Level.

Most of the policy makers in the West did / do underestimate Russia. This is the result of a clear "Mirror Imaging" and huge miscalculation. That's why, Russia has been able to completely surprise the West couple of times during the last months. The annexation of the Crimean peninsula was one of these surprises. The current ethnic Russians demonstrations in the eastern parts of Ukraine is another one. I had anticipated some of these events in my previous notes. Here below, i re-upload one of them. I hope this brief note would refresh the mind of some policy makers in the West.

In sum, the West should implement "control Damage policy"; before it's too late.

M. Sirani                             14.04.2014

The First Side Effect of Dispute in Ukraine; A possible $20 Billion Dollars Trade Between Russia and Iran.

As i had anticipated in some earlier notes, any escalation of tension in Ukraine, would inevitably decrease the level of cooperation of Russia at the global level in different terms. In some of my previous notes, i had briefly illustrated this event by referring to Syria and Iran as two clear examples. The rumor about a $20 billion dollars economic deal between Russia and Iran confirms my previous statement to some extend. This is, however, not the end of the story. If the West would not be able to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution for current dispute in Ukraine with Russia, the West would face some bigger problems in different arenas mostly at global level. Among these problems, the Syrian civil war, disarmament of chemical arsenals in Syria and Iran's nuclear activity could be mentioned.

Thus, it would be wise for the policy makers in the USA and EU to  perform a simple "Cost and Benefit Analysis" simultaneously, while they are looking for a fundamental solution about current tension in Ukraine. As some examples, the policy makers in the West should think about some questions as follows:

1- Would the West benefit from Ukraine at the expense of creation a nuclear-armed Iran?
2- Would the West be able to tolerate and deal with massive and broad instability in all the neighboring countries of Syria or in some countries in the Eastern part of the EU in an exchange rate such as Ukraine?

To be honest, Russia can easily destabilize not only the Eastern part of Ukraine but also the Eastern part of the EU to some extent by provoking the ethnic Russians in all these countries. Russia can easily destabilize all the neighboring countries of Syria by simply prolonging the Syrian civil war and influx of huge numbers of Syrian refugees. Russia can easily destabilize the whole Middle East by simply letting Iran develops its nuclear weapon. The EU dependency on Russian oil and gas is another weapon of Russia. The New START Treaty is another weapon for Russia. Russia can simply withdraw its participation from this treaty and would threaten all the EU countries in terms of security. Russia can arm every country around the world, for example, Iran or American Latin countries, with most high-tech weapons, in order to damage the security of all the Western countries.

In sum, whether we like or not, Russia does have many leverages at the present in different terms to use them against the West. Considering all these examples, I'm wondering based on which logical arguments, President Obama underestimates Russia and simply says: Russia is "A REGIONAL POWER". Such a statement is simply the result of a huge miscalculation. Any analysis, based on this type of miscalculation would end up into a major fiasco. The loss of Crimea was / is the first sign of such a fiasco. 


M. Sirani                                10.04.2014

Offering WTO Membership To Iran is the Biggest Mistake.

There is a rumor that the Islamic Republic of Iran might be the new member of the WTO. This is the biggest mistake based on many reasons. I don't explore all these reasons openly in this weblog.
Briefly, the international community can use the WTO membership card to change the course of history in Iran for ever and for good; of course, if the WTO would be able to implement some additional regulations in advance.
Once again, i cannot explore all the details openly in this note; but such a membership is one of the best leverages that the international community should / can use it, in order to change the course of history in Iran for ever. I hope those responsible officials in this matter would understand this important point and opportunity.


M. Sirani                            13.04.2014

Briefly: Choosing Hamid Aboutalebi For the UN is A Clear Humiliation Test for the USA. Would the U.S. Pass or Fail This Test?

In this respect, i re-upload my previous note about this event once again. It might refresh the mind of some policy makers in the West. Here below is the note.

M. Sirani                       12.04.2014

A Former Hostage Taker As Iran's New Amabassador for the United Nation.

The Iranian Regime has appointed Hamid Aboutalebi as its next United Nation ambassador. As the Iranian media declare, Hassan Rouhani has appointed him as the new Permanent Representative of Iran to the United Nation. Hamid Aboutalebi has previously worked as Iran's ambassador in Belgium, Italy and Australia. In addition to these high ranking positions, Hamid Aboutalebi has a controversial historical background, the same as most of the politicians in Iran. The controversial historical part is that Hamid Aboutalebi was a member of the radical student group that attacked the United State embassy at Tehran in 1979 and took hostage 52 American diplomats for 444 days. This event is neither an accidental nor unintentional act of the Islamic Regime. The Iranian Regime has a clear message in this regard. Choosing a former hostage taker like Aboutalebi for such a position in the United Nation headquarter, which is located in the U.S. territory, shows that Iran would try to crush and humiliate the United State in every direction and dimension by all means and all leverages.

Do most of the policy makers in the West see how smartly the Iranian Regime play the chess game in the international arena? Do these experts have enough knowledge about the Iranian Regime and its special characteristics? My answer to these two questions is negative.



M. Sirani                            31.03.2014

The First Side Effect of Dispute in Ukraine; A possible $20 Billion Dollars Trade Between Russia and Iran.

As i had anticipated in some earlier notes, any escalation of tension in Ukraine, would inevitably decrease the level of cooperation of Russia at the global level in different terms. In some of my previous notes, i had briefly illustrated this event by referring to Syria and Iran as two clear examples. The rumor about a $20 billion dollars economic deal between Russia and Iran confirms my previous statement to some extend. This is, however, not the end of the story. If the West would not be able to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution for current dispute in Ukraine with Russia, the West would face some bigger problems in different arenas mostly at global level. Among these problems, the Syrian civil war, disarmament of chemical arsenals in Syria and Iran's nuclear activity could be mentioned.

Thus, it would be wise for the policy makers in the USA and EU to  perform a simple "Cost and Benefit Analysis" simultaneously, while they are looking for a fundamental solution about current tension in Ukraine. As some examples, the policy makers in the West should think about some questions as follows:

1- Would the West benefit from Ukraine at the expense of creation a nuclear-armed Iran?
2- Would the West be able to tolerate and deal with massive and broad instability in all the neighboring countries of Syria or in some countries in the Eastern part of the EU in an exchange rate such as Ukraine?

To be honest, Russia can easily destabilize not only the Eastern part of Ukraine but also the Eastern part of the EU to some extent by provoking the ethnic Russians in all these countries. Russia can easily destabilize all the neighboring countries of Syria by simply prolonging the Syrian civil war and influx of huge numbers of Syrian refugees. Russia can easily destabilize the whole Middle East by simply letting Iran develops its nuclear weapon. The EU dependency on Russian oil and gas is another weapon of Russia. The New START Treaty is another weapon for Russia. Russia can simply withdraw its participation from this treaty and would threaten all the EU countries in terms of security. Russia can arm every country around the world, for example, Iran or American Latin countries, with most high-tech weapons, in order to damage the security of all the Western countries.

In sum, whether we like or not, Russia does have many leverages at the present in different terms to use them against the West. Considering all these examples, I'm wondering based on which logical arguments, President Obama underestimates Russia and simply says: Russia is "A REGIONAL POWER". Such a statement is simply the result of a huge miscalculation. Any analysis, based on this type of miscalculation would end up into a major fiasco. The loss of Crimea was / is the first sign of such a fiasco. 


M. Sirani                                10.04.2014

Warning; Ukraine on the Verge of A Military Invasion.

Since couple of days ago, the Russian ethnic groups have occupied some governmental buildings in Eastern part of Ukraine. These pro-Russia activists demand a referendum to join Russia. The talks between activists and the Ukrainian authority have not reached a peaceful solution yet. In the latest development, the current Ukraine's interior minister "Arsen Avakov" has given a 48-hour ultimatum to the activists. According to this warning the activists should voluntarily leave the occupied buildings during the next 48 hours or they will be forced to leave the governmental properties. Such a harsh reaction is totally wrong, particularly at this critical moment.

I hope the policy makers in Ukraine and the Western countries would carefully pay attention to the following brief explanation.
As we know, Russia has deployed nearly 40,000 armed forces close to Ukrainian borders. One of the main reasons of this deployment is to protect the lives and properties of those ethnic Russians, who live in Ukraine, as Kremlin claims. Bearing in mind this issue, what would be the possible reaction of Moscow, if the current Ukrainian interim government violently and forcefully attack the pro-Russia activists in the end of this 48-hour ultimatum?
The answer to this questions is very simple. There is high probability that the Russian army would invade the Eastern part of Ukraine. Should this happen, what can the NATO, the USA, the EU and current Ukrainian interim government do? Does any authority in the West dare to start a war with Russia? Of course not.

Thus, it would be reasonable and logical for the interim government in Ukraine and its Western allies to think about the possible consequences of their act at this critical stage and do not make a hasty decision based on revenge or emotion. Otherwise, they pay a very high price in this matter. To put it simply, don't facilitate a military invasion opportunity for Russia by your own wrong tactics.

As it appears the current policy makers in Ukraine have no idea about the possible consequences of their acts. Thus, this is the responsibility of the policy makers in the USA and EU to warn them; of course, if they don't really want Russia annex the Eastern part of Ukraine as well.




M. Sirani                                   09.04.2014
      

Khamenei's Today Speech About Iran's Nuclear Activity (09.04.2014).

Today is the National Nuclear Technology Day in Iran. Because of this event a gathering was held for the staff of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI). In this meeting, Khamenei delivered a speech to the Atomic Energy Organization's staff, which should neither be ignored nor underestimated. Here below are the most important parts of Khamenei's today speech.


1- Iran should not / will not tolerate or accept any type of language of force amid its nuclear activity.


2- Iran will never allow its “scientific nuclear move” to be brought to a halt, and stressed, “None of the country’s nuclear achievements could be shut down, and nobody has the right to bargain over them, and nobody will do that.” (Tasnim, 2014).


As I follow carefully the speeches and statements of Khamenei and some other high ranking policy makers of Iran, it seems to me that Iran has been gradually passing the red line with regard to its nuclear activity. In other words,  Iran has reached the critical stage with regard to development of its nuclear weapon. To put it simply, I might say "the genie is out of the bottle".


In sum, the Middle East is moving toward a nuclear weapon race faster than we think. This is something that the IAEA and some other responsible international organization should carefully pay attention to it and prevent it; before, it's too late.




M. Sirani                                   09.04.2014




Reference:
Tasnim (2014). URLhttp://www.tasnimnews.com/English/Home/Single/333495. Accessed on: 09.04.2014.

The Latest News About Missing Malaysian Flight MH370.

Today, ALALAM News Network "Iran's news agency" has published an article about the missing flight MH370. The article, which is quoted from a Russian newspaper,  claims that the flight MH370 has landed near Kandahar, a city in Afghanistan. According to this article, one of the wings of the plane is broken and all the passengers are alive. The hijackers want to use the passengers in order to bargain with the USA and China, as the article further describes. As an individual, I cannot verify this news. But it would be wise if some international organization or the authority in Afghanistan would be able to check the area. Based on this news, i re-upload my previous note about the missing flight Mh370 once again. Here below is my previous note about flight MH370.



M. Sirani                             08.04.2014


The Previous Note About MH370.

     About The Missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370.

As the new data suggests, the flight MH370 may have been sabotaged or hijacked. If this news is true, there are two possibilities for this flight. Either the flight MH370 has been intentionally or unintentionally crashed or exploded by the hijackers somewhere in the middle of the Indian Ocean, or it has landed in a secret comfort zone, which might be a blind zone for most of the radars and satellites in that area. If the flight MH370 has been crashed or exploded, (which i hope not) then sooner or later, we will / should find the wreckage and the black box of the plane somewhere in the region. But, if the plane has been hijacked or sabotaged, we are facing another story.

There is, so far, a hypothesis in this regard. Some claim that the flight MH370 has headed toward the Andaman Islands located in the Indian Ocean. The probability that flight MH370 has landed somewhere in these Islands, is very low, based on many technical, geographical and most importantly military reasons. As an example, these Islands are strategically important areas for India. Thus, the idea that the flight MH370 has landed in one of these Islands and the Indian authorities have not detected this event yet, is something hard to believe.

If the plane has been hijacked and the perpetrators have not exploded or crashed the plane yet and moreover, if the plane has flown toward the West, as the Malaysian authorities claim, the flight MH370 may have landed in a remote area in some other countries in the region. Among these potentially suspicious countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen, Somalia and Sudan could be mentioned. I don't want to point my finger at any of these countries directly and blame their authorities for such an event. My point is that these countries have the best potentiality for such an action, based on many reasons, which are out of the scope of this short note. In this respect, however, Iran might or could be an exception, due to the fact that Iran has done such a hijacking in the past. As a clear example, the hijacking of a civilian plane in 2010 and subsequently capturing and arresting Abdolmalek Rigi by the Iranian authority, could be mentioned.

After all, what lesson/s can we draw from this event, if ( I emphasize "if") the flight MH370 has been really hijacked, as the Malaysian Authority claims? In response to this question, four important issues could be mentioned.

1- The first important issue is the safety and security of all passengers and the crew of flight MH370. This is something that not only the Malaysian authority but also the international community should be aware and focus on it.

 2- The second issue is a fact that after all these years since 9/11, some states, airports and airlines are still vulnerable and chaotic in terms of following, implementing and preserving the proper security measures.

3- The third issue is a potential serious threat, which might be used against us somewhere in the near future. This missing plane can be used as a powerful weapon to aim at any target around the world. Thus, it would be wise that all the states in the region should be on full alert in terms of security concern, at least for a while.


4- The fourth issue is the scale of threat in this hijacking. If the perpetrators have hijacked the plane and after couple of days, still they have not demanded any ransom or request, we should be much more careful, more than the third issue mentioned above. Such a behavior might be understood that the perpetrators are preparing themselves for some big and sudden further move or attack. Therefore, they don't want to reveal their location or identification at this stage. In this case, we should be carefully prepared and follow the rule of "expect the unexpected".
(Once again, i emphasize that the issues mentioned above are some possibilities, in case that the flight MH370 has been hijacked). 


In sum, I don't want to develop a conspiracy theory by saying that an important person has been in this flight; thus a governmental authority in the region or elsewhere has decided to secretly hijack the flight MH370. But, it would be very useful, if the Malaysian authority reveals the real names and photos of all the passengers and the flight crew of the flight MH370. By using this type of data, we might be able to find a better and reliable information about the mystery of flight MH370. Otherwise, the flight MH370 might be added to many so-called "unresolved, unknown and mysterious events" in our historical archive, at least for some decades to come.  

Note: If i had enough information, for example about the passengers and crew in this flight or some technical information such as: how far the flight MH370 can fly (in terms of fuel), or the type of communication devices (visible or hidden) embedded within this plane and their accessibility for passengers and crew as well, i would have provided a better and more reliable analysis in this matter. However, as an individual, i hope all the passengers and crew of the flight MH370 are in a safe and secure condition & environment, wherever they are and soon will join their families and relatives. Maybe, I'm too optimist, but this is the only thing i can do at the present; wish them all the best of luck.



M. Sirani                                   15.03.2014    

Pro-Russia Protesters Occupied Some Governmental Building in Eastern Ukraine Today.

As I had noted in some of earlier posts, Russia does not need to use military force for destabilizing Ukraine. Instead of using military forces, Russia can easily provoke and mobilize the ethnic Russian citizens in Ukraine and some other countries in the eastern part of the EU.



Today's events in Ukraine confirm my statement. Today, the pro-Russia demonstrators seized some governmental buildings in two important cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. The protesters demanded a Crimea-model referendum to join Russia. such events are, in fact, Russia's indirect warning shots. There is high probability that such events would continue and spread in different parts of Ukraine, if the current Ukrainian interim government, the West and Russia would not be able to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution for current dispute in Ukraine in the near future.












We should not forget that the instability and chaos in Ukraine might spread to other neighboring countries as well, if the tension between Russia and the West would escalate with this tempo we are observing at the present. In this respect, Russia won't lose anything at all. On the contrary, this is the EU as a whole, would face major and bigger problems from different aspects. In addition, we should remember that controlling such a domestic civilian uprising is beyond the responsibility, capability and power of NATO forces. This is something that the Western policy makers should know it.


Thus, it would be wise that the policy makers in the West should carefully pay attention to these types of Russia's warning shots and find a diplomatic solution for this dispute as soon as possible, before it's too late; before this type of instability and chaos would spread to other parts of Ukraine and some other neighboring countries.




Important Note: Ukraine is going to held a new election on 25 May, 2014. The most basic, fundamental and important element for every election is peace and stability. So is the case of upcoming election in Ukraine. If the West would not be able to settle down a diplomatic agreement with Russia amid dispute in Ukraine before the election, Russia can / has the power to drag the whole country into a total chaos during the election time. I just hope some policy makers in the West avoid mirror imaging and do not compare today's election in a chaotic country like Afghanistan with the upcoming election in Ukraine. Because, there is massive fire, which is smoldering under the ashes in Ukraine and waiting for a suitable moment.  


M. Sirani                                 07.04.2014

Breaking: Iran and Syria Are Slowly and Gradually Preparing To Swallow Lebanon. Are You Aware of this event?

In comparison with any other neighboring countries to Syria, Lebanon is the only country that nearly one million Syrian refugees have taken shelter on it. Undoubtedly, some of these refugees are, those Syrian, who have fled Syria because of devastating civil war. Some of these refugees might be those poor Syrian, who are neither the followers of Assad's Regime nor the Syrian opposition groups.










But the presence of a large number of Syrian refugees, nearly one million in Lebanon alone, is en important event, which should not be ignored or underestimated. There is high probability that Iran and Syria are deploying some of their troops and followers into Lebanon intentionally and covertly through the waves of the Syrian refugees. These troops would assist and strengthen Hezbollah to seize the power in Lebanon somewhere in the future. A professional army of ten or twenty thousands Iranian-Syrian personnel would change the balance of power in Lebanon in the favor of Hezbollah to a large degree.






We should ask ourselves the following question: deploying such an army among the population of one million Syrian refugees into Lebanon is a difficult or unknown task? For some maybe; but for a person like Qasem Soleimani, I don't think so. He is smart enough to use this opportunity in a best possible way. I'm pretty sure he will do that; particularly, when we see that the war in Syria is smoothly moving in the favor of Assad's Regime. This is the perfect time to change the tactics, from defensive to offensive moves in different direction, whether inside Syria or abroad. In this respect, Lebanon has the most important strategic position and I might say also privilege for both the Iranian as well as Syrian Regime, much more than Iraq. One might wonder why?  Because Iraq has close and common borders with Iran and in case of any harsh circumstances, Iran can easily deploy more troops there and strengthen its position. Thus, for the Iranian Regime would be much more logical and beneficial to focus on Lebanon following the prevailing in the conflict in Syria. I can say with high probability that the Iranian Regime would perceive the situation as I do and act in this way. (I'm wondering the military experts of the West have thought about this particular issue or not. Don't blame me, but honestly I doubt about it; because the West is pretty obsessed with Ukraine dispute).     






To put it simply, Iran and Syria are preparing to swallow Lebanon somewhere in the future. This is something that the international community should be aware of that.






Note: Some need lecture to know different tactics of the Iranian Regime.


M. Sirani                                           03.04.2014

Ukraine's Quick & fast Inquiry About 88 Victims; April Fool's Joke or What?

Following a quick and fast investigation, the interim governments in Ukraine declared that ousted President Viktor Yanukovich is the responsible person behind the killing of 88 people, who were killed by sniper shots during the recent uprising in the country.








An investigation about the killing of 88 people, just in three or four weeks? (Three or four weeks since the phone conversation between Lady Ashton and Estonian Foreign Minister Leaked out). I'm wondering is this news an April fool's joke or the interim government in Ukraine thinks that we "as the neutral observers" are stupid? Or does the interim Ukrainian government think that the case is closed because there is no Olekander Muzychko alive to testify?










M. Sirani                             03.04.2014

Ukraine Approves Military Exercise With NATO.

I remember just couple of days ago the current interim prime minister of Ukraine in a news conference said: "Ukraine would not join NATO". Today, I heard a news that Ukraine has decided to perform a military exercise with NATO. This event would occur, while Russia was beginning to pull back its military forces from Ukrainian borderline last night. It seems the West is trying to provoke Russia and president Putin. Although, the current Russian government is not like the North Korean, but in response to this act, Russia might fully militarize not only the Crimean peninsula, but also the whole Black Sea as much as it can.





Note: It would be wise that the policy makers in the NATO pay attention to a simple fact, which I have repeatedly mentioned it in my previous notes. The fact is that Russia does not need to invade Ukraine by its military forces. If Russia wants to destabilize Ukraine for its own favor and purpose, Kremlin can easily use ten millions ethnic Russians, who live in Ukraine. If the West would push further, Russia would response harder. Russia can easily provoke and mobilize all the Russian citizens not only in Ukraine but also those ethnic Russians, who live in Moldova and Georgia to revolt against their central governments. In this respect, what would the NATO forces do? How would the NATO forces be able to control the civilian uprisings in all these countries?


I'm wondering do the decision makers in the NATO think about such consequences? I don't think so.






In sum, following this military exercise, the West should be prepared for two main consequences: 1- revolting the ethnic Russian citizens in different Eastern European countries and 2- strong Russian militarization policy in the Crimean peninsula and the Black Sea. Moreover, the Western and NATO policy makers should pay attention to the fact that Putin is not a pushover person. Putin retaliates harder.


M. Sirani                             01.04.2014