Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Don't Push Russia Too Far; Ukraine Might Totally Lose Its Accessibility To Black Sea and Azov Sea.


Don't Push Russia Too Far; Ukraine Might Totally Lose Its Accessibility To Black Sea and Azov Sea.

During the last couple of weeks, I have repeatedly written some short notes about the wrong policy of the Western countries in Ukraine and its possible negative consequences. As it appears, still the current Western politicians do not have a logical and reasonable analysis about the current tension in Ukraine and more importantly, most of them underestimate the power and leverage of Russia in this matter.

If the combination of the Western countries, the current Ukrainian interim government, the ethnic Russians, who live in Ukraine, and Russia would not be able to find a diplomatic solution for this conflict as soon as possible, Ukraine would undoubtedly experience a devastating civil war. The result of this civil war would not be pleasant for neither the West, nor Ukraine. In such a scenario, Russia would be the main winner based on many reasons. Russia has enough leverages to divide Ukraine into two separated parts of 1- North-West Ukraine (Pro-West), and 2- East-South Ukraine (Pro-Russia). 

This means simply that the current Ukraine might lose its accessibility to Black Sea and Azov Sea. This is the ultimate and final goal of Russia, if it would not be able to preserve its interest in Ukraine.


M. Sirani                                    23.04.2014