Sunday, April 6, 2014

Pro-Russia Protesters Occupied Some Governmental Building in Eastern Ukraine Today.

As I had noted in some of earlier posts, Russia does not need to use military force for destabilizing Ukraine. Instead of using military forces, Russia can easily provoke and mobilize the ethnic Russian citizens in Ukraine and some other countries in the eastern part of the EU.

Today's events in Ukraine confirm my statement. Today, the pro-Russia demonstrators seized some governmental buildings in two important cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. The protesters demanded a Crimea-model referendum to join Russia. such events are, in fact, Russia's indirect warning shots. There is high probability that such events would continue and spread in different parts of Ukraine, if the current Ukrainian interim government, the West and Russia would not be able to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution for current dispute in Ukraine in the near future.

We should not forget that the instability and chaos in Ukraine might spread to other neighboring countries as well, if the tension between Russia and the West would escalate with this tempo we are observing at the present. In this respect, Russia won't lose anything at all. On the contrary, this is the EU as a whole, would face major and bigger problems from different aspects. In addition, we should remember that controlling such a domestic civilian uprising is beyond the responsibility, capability and power of NATO forces. This is something that the Western policy makers should know it.

Thus, it would be wise that the policy makers in the West should carefully pay attention to these types of Russia's warning shots and find a diplomatic solution for this dispute as soon as possible, before it's too late; before this type of instability and chaos would spread to other parts of Ukraine and some other neighboring countries.

Important Note: Ukraine is going to held a new election on 25 May, 2014. The most basic, fundamental and important element for every election is peace and stability. So is the case of upcoming election in Ukraine. If the West would not be able to settle down a diplomatic agreement with Russia amid dispute in Ukraine before the election, Russia can / has the power to drag the whole country into a total chaos during the election time. I just hope some policy makers in the West avoid mirror imaging and do not compare today's election in a chaotic country like Afghanistan with the upcoming election in Ukraine. Because, there is massive fire, which is smoldering under the ashes in Ukraine and waiting for a suitable moment.  

M. Sirani                                 07.04.2014