Monday, April 14, 2014

Do not Underestimate Putin; Russia Has Massive leverages to Use Not Only Within Ukraine But Laso at Regional and Global Level.

Most of the policy makers in the West did / do underestimate Russia. This is the result of a clear "Mirror Imaging" and huge miscalculation. That's why, Russia has been able to completely surprise the West couple of times during the last months. The annexation of the Crimean peninsula was one of these surprises. The current ethnic Russians demonstrations in the eastern parts of Ukraine is another one. I had anticipated some of these events in my previous notes. Here below, i re-upload one of them. I hope this brief note would refresh the mind of some policy makers in the West.

In sum, the West should implement "control Damage policy"; before it's too late.

M. Sirani                             14.04.2014

The First Side Effect of Dispute in Ukraine; A possible $20 Billion Dollars Trade Between Russia and Iran.

As i had anticipated in some earlier notes, any escalation of tension in Ukraine, would inevitably decrease the level of cooperation of Russia at the global level in different terms. In some of my previous notes, i had briefly illustrated this event by referring to Syria and Iran as two clear examples. The rumor about a $20 billion dollars economic deal between Russia and Iran confirms my previous statement to some extend. This is, however, not the end of the story. If the West would not be able to find a diplomatic and peaceful solution for current dispute in Ukraine with Russia, the West would face some bigger problems in different arenas mostly at global level. Among these problems, the Syrian civil war, disarmament of chemical arsenals in Syria and Iran's nuclear activity could be mentioned.

Thus, it would be wise for the policy makers in the USA and EU to  perform a simple "Cost and Benefit Analysis" simultaneously, while they are looking for a fundamental solution about current tension in Ukraine. As some examples, the policy makers in the West should think about some questions as follows:

1- Would the West benefit from Ukraine at the expense of creation a nuclear-armed Iran?
2- Would the West be able to tolerate and deal with massive and broad instability in all the neighboring countries of Syria or in some countries in the Eastern part of the EU in an exchange rate such as Ukraine?

To be honest, Russia can easily destabilize not only the Eastern part of Ukraine but also the Eastern part of the EU to some extent by provoking the ethnic Russians in all these countries. Russia can easily destabilize all the neighboring countries of Syria by simply prolonging the Syrian civil war and influx of huge numbers of Syrian refugees. Russia can easily destabilize the whole Middle East by simply letting Iran develops its nuclear weapon. The EU dependency on Russian oil and gas is another weapon of Russia. The New START Treaty is another weapon for Russia. Russia can simply withdraw its participation from this treaty and would threaten all the EU countries in terms of security. Russia can arm every country around the world, for example, Iran or American Latin countries, with most high-tech weapons, in order to damage the security of all the Western countries.

In sum, whether we like or not, Russia does have many leverages at the present in different terms to use them against the West. Considering all these examples, I'm wondering based on which logical arguments, President Obama underestimates Russia and simply says: Russia is "A REGIONAL POWER". Such a statement is simply the result of a huge miscalculation. Any analysis, based on this type of miscalculation would end up into a major fiasco. The loss of Crimea was / is the first sign of such a fiasco. 

M. Sirani                                10.04.2014

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