Since couple of days ago, the Russian ethnic groups have occupied some governmental buildings in Eastern part of Ukraine. These pro-Russia activists demand a referendum to join Russia. The talks between activists and the Ukrainian authority have not reached a peaceful solution yet. In the latest development, the current Ukraine's interior minister "Arsen Avakov" has given a 48-hour ultimatum to the activists. According to this warning the activists should voluntarily leave the occupied buildings during the next 48 hours or they will be forced to leave the governmental properties. Such a harsh reaction is totally wrong, particularly at this critical moment.
I hope the policy makers in Ukraine and the Western countries would carefully pay attention to the following brief explanation.
As we know, Russia has deployed nearly 40,000 armed forces close to Ukrainian borders. One of the main reasons of this deployment is to protect the lives and properties of those ethnic Russians, who live in Ukraine, as Kremlin claims. Bearing in mind this issue, what would be the possible reaction of Moscow, if the current Ukrainian interim government violently and forcefully attack the pro-Russia activists in the end of this 48-hour ultimatum?
The answer to this questions is very simple. There is high probability that the Russian army would invade the Eastern part of Ukraine. Should this happen, what can the NATO, the USA, the EU and current Ukrainian interim government do? Does any authority in the West dare to start a war with Russia? Of course not.
Thus, it would be reasonable and logical for the interim government in Ukraine and its Western allies to think about the possible consequences of their act at this critical stage and do not make a hasty decision based on revenge or emotion. Otherwise, they pay a very high price in this matter. To put it simply, don't facilitate a military invasion opportunity for Russia by your own wrong tactics.
As it appears the current policy makers in Ukraine have no idea about the possible consequences of their acts. Thus, this is the responsibility of the policy makers in the USA and EU to warn them; of course, if they don't really want Russia annex the Eastern part of Ukraine as well.
M. Sirani 09.04.2014
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